Zimbabwe

The eight sectoral scenarios as well as their relationship to the Current Path and the Combined scenario are explained in the About Page. Chart 10 summarises the approach.

Chart 11 presents the mortality distribution in the Current Path for 2023 and 2043.

The Demographics and Health scenario envisions ambitious improvements in child and maternal mortality rates, enhanced access to modern contraception, and decreased mortality from communicable diseases (e.g., AIDS, diarrhoea, malaria, respiratory infections) and non-communicable diseases (e.g., diabetes) alongside advancements in safe water access and sanitation. This scenario assumes a swift demographic transition supported by heightened investments in health and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) infrastructure.

Visit the themes on Demographics and Health/WaSH for more detail on the scenario structure and interventions.

Zimbabwe's mortality distribution is characterised by a combination of factors, including communicable diseases (CDs) and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). CDs include HIV/AIDS, respiratory infections and others. NCDs include cardiovascular and malignant neoplasm. Lack of safe water access and sanitation is a significant contributor to the country's health challenges as it increases the risk of waterborne and sanitation-related diseases.

The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zimbabwe has been a significant health challenge since the 1980s, but the country has made remarkable progress in reducing infection and death rates. The AIDS-related deaths dropped from a peak of 109 390 in 2003 to 17 620 in 2023 due to the widespread rollout of antiretroviral therapy (ART) starting in the 2000s, supported by initiatives like the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and the Global Fund. Moreover, Zimbabwe adopted a universal test-and-treat policy in 2010 and now has over 1 million individuals on ART, achieving substantial progress toward global "90-90-90" targets.

Expanding access to testing and ART, addressing stigma, improving healthcare infrastructure and providing targeted support for vulnerable populations can further reduce AIDS-related deaths to 5 960 by 2043 on the Current Path. Furthermore, by integrating HIV care into broader health systems and leveraging education, technology and sustainable funding, Zimbabwe can eliminate mother-to-child transmission, maintain high viral suppression rates and achieve long-term health outcomes.

Although HIV/AIDS remains a major concern, respiratory infections and other CDs continue to affect the population. On the Current Path, deaths from respiratory infections and other CDs will decline from 13 190 and 28 410 in 2023 to 12 860 and 23 340 by 2043, respectively. These figures highlight the persistent burden of CDs, which has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, further straining healthcare resources and increasing mortality rates. However, progress can be made through preventive measures, enhancements in healthcare infrastructure, increased education and awareness and tackling social determinants of health.

On the other hand, the Current Path indicates an increase in deaths from NCDs, with fatalities due to malignant neoplasms (MagligNeoPi) and cardiovascular diseases (Cardio Vasc) rising from 13 120 and 18 680 in 2023 to 24 110 and 30 760 by 2043, respectively. This surge is driven by demographic shifts, lifestyle changes and healthcare challenges. As a result, effectively addressing NCDs in Zimbabwe will require a stronger emphasis on prevention, early diagnosis and strategic resource allocation to meet the growing healthcare demands.

With a decline in deaths related to CDs and an increase in deaths from NCDs, the Current Path indicates that Zimbabwe will experience its epidemiological transition by 2031. This transition marks the point when NCD-related death rates surpass those of CDs.

Chart 12 presents the infant mortality rate in the Current Path and in the Demographics and Health scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

The infant mortality rate is the probability of a child born in a specific year dying before reaching the age of one. It measures the child-born survival rate and reflects the social, economic and environmental conditions in which children live, including their health care. It is measured as the number of infant deaths per 1 000 live births and is an important marker of the overall quality of the health system in a country.

Zimbabwe’s infant mortality rates have fluctuated over the years due to a combination of social, political and economic factors. In 1990, the rate stood at around 47 deaths per 1 000 live births, increasing to 54 by 1999 as a result of economic hardships and the HIV/AIDS crisis. The early 2000s saw further deterioration, peaking at 58 deaths per 1 000 live births in 2009. However, starting in 2010, enhanced healthcare efforts, supported by foreign aid and public health initiatives, began to reverse this trend. By 2020, the rate had dropped to approximately 40 deaths per 1 000 live births, further decreasing to 37 by 2023. With continued improvements in healthcare access, sanitation and economic stability, this figure will further decrease to 33 in 2030 and 23 deaths per 1000 live births by 2043 on the Current Path.

Sustained policy focus and increased investment in public health interventions in the Demographics and Health scenario will drive even greater progress, potentially reducing the infant mortality rate to 27 and 15 deaths per 1 000 live births by 2030 and 2043, respectively. However, this trajectory indicates that Zimbabwe will not meet the SDG 3.2 target of reducing the infant mortality rate to less than 25 deaths per 1 000 live births by 2030. The target could potentially be reached by 2032 in the Demographics and Health scenario while remaining on the Current Path would delay the achievement until 2040.

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) remains a significant challenge for children in Zimbabwe, fueled by food insecurity, poverty and gaps in healthcare services. SAM prevalence among children under five rose sharply from 0.4% in 1988 to 4.2% in 1999 during a period of economic and health crises. Although international aid in the 2010s contributed to treatment advancements, SAM rates have remained a concern, with an estimated 0.7% prevalence by 2023. This rate will remain unchanged until 2043 on the Current Path. However, it can decline slightly to 0.6% with interventions in the Demographics and Health scenario. These interventions focus on sustained improvements in food security and access to healthcare.

Similarly, Zimbabwe’s maternal mortality ratio (MMR) has experienced dramatic shifts. It peaked at 685 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2008 due to economic instability and the impact of HIV/AIDS. Efforts to enhance maternal healthcare in the early 2010s led to a steady decline, with the MMR dropping to 357 by 2020 and further to 323 in 2023. With sustained investment in healthcare systems and addressing underlying social issues like poverty and education as part of the interventions in the Demographics and Health scenario, the MMR will drop to 76 by 2043 compared to 101 deaths per 100 000 live births on the Current Path. Despite this progress, Zimbabwe will not reach the 2030 international health target of reducing the MMR to below 70 deaths per 100 000 live births until 2043.

Overall, while strides have been made in improving health outcomes in Zimbabwe, challenges remain due to economic instability, food insecurity and healthcare access. Continued focus on maternal and child health, nutrition and healthcare infrastructure will be critical for achieving sustainable reductions in infant mortality, SAM and maternal mortality rates by 2043.

Chart 13 presents the demographic dividend in the Current Path and in the Demographics and Health scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

The dividend is the window of economic growth opportunity that opens when the ratio of working-age persons to dependants increases to 1.7 to 1 and higher.

Zimbabwe’s fertility rates have shown a consistent decline since 1990, decreasing from approximately 5 births per woman to approximately 4 by 2023. This trend will continue, with the Current Path suggesting a decrease to 2.4 births per woman by 2043. The reduction in fertility rates will result in a smaller dependent population (children) and a larger working-age population, which has significant implications for economic development.

As fertility rates decline, the demographic composition of Zimbabwe's population is expected to shift. On the Current Path, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above will gradually increase but is projected to remain relatively low, around 4% by 2043. Conversely, the working-age population (ages 15-64) will grow significantly, potentially making up 64% of the total population by 2043, compared to 56% in 2023. This demographic transition creates a potential for what is known as a "demographic dividend."

By 2023, Zimbabwe's ratio of working-age population to dependants was 1.3:1, which is below the 1.7:1 threshold required to achieve a demographic dividend. Both the Current Path and the proposed Demographics and Health scenario suggest that Zimbabwe will enter a demographic window of opportunity by 2039, with dependency ratios of 1.71 and 1.72, respectively. Until that time, the country will not benefit from a demographic dividend, which could have sped up economic growth.

To maximise the potential benefits of this demographic dividend, Zimbabwe will need to invest in education, healthcare and job creation to ensure that the growing working-age population is healthy, equipped with the necessary skills and can be absorbed into the labour market.

Chart 14 presents crop production and demand in the Current Path from 1990 to 2043.

The Agriculture scenario envisions an agricultural revolution that ensures food security through ambitious yet feasible increases in yields per hectare, thanks to improved management, seed, fertiliser technology, and expanded irrigation and equipped land. Efforts to reduce food loss and waste are emphasised, with increased calorie consumption as an indicator of self-sufficiency and prioritising it over food exports. Additionally, enhanced forest protection signifies a commitment to sustainable land use practices.

Visit the theme on Agriculture for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

Zimbabwe's agriculture sector is predominantly crop-based and is vital to the economy and livelihoods, serving as a key pillar of food security, particularly for rural communities. Over the years, food security has fluctuated due to economic policies, land reforms, climate conditions and international trade dynamics. Total agricultural production and demand have both increased, reaching 9.3 and 11.6 million metric tons in 2023 from 8.11 and 7.76 million metric tons in 1990, respectively. However, since 2001, demand has consistently exceeded production, widening the food deficit to 2.3 million metric tons by 2023.

In the 1990s, the country was recognised for having some of the highest crop production levels in sub-Saharan Africa. Crop production increased from 7.4 million metric tons in 1990 to 8.7 million metric tons in 1999, primarily driven by staple crops such as maize and tobacco. During the same period, overall agricultural crop production rose from 6.6 million to 8.4 million metric tons.

However, severe droughts, particularly during the 1992/1993 season, led to a sharp decline in yields. In 1992, crop yields plummeted to a record low of 1.5 million metric tons, significantly below the national demand of 3.5 million metric tons. Total agricultural production also fell to a record low of 2.15 million metric tons, compared to the national demand of 4.09 million metric tons in that same year. Recovery efforts allowed crop production to rebound to 9.4 million metric tons by 1999, while domestic demand increased to 8.6 million metric tons.

The land reform program of the early 2000s, which aimed to redistribute commercial farmland to local farmers, significantly reduced agricultural productivity. The displacement of skilled commercial farmers led to a drastic decline in crop yields, which dropped from 8.9 million metric tons in 2000 to 5.1 million metric tons by 2009. This situation marked the beginning of food shortages as crop demand consistently remained above production, even as it decreased from 8.3 million metric tons to 6.7 million metric tons during the same period.

From 2010 onwards, recovery efforts increased crop production again to 7.9 million metric tons in 2018. However, yields still fell short of pre-reform levels, while demand rose to 8.5 million metric tons in the same period. The land reform led to ongoing food insecurity, widening the food deficit from 2001 onward, and caused economic instability due to decreased financial inflows from agricultural exports.

Ongoing economic challenges, erratic rainfall due to climate change events such as the 2023/2043 El Niño and insufficient investment in agricultural technology have further strained the agricultural sector. As a result, crop yields declined again to 7.7 million metric tons in 2023, while demand increased to 9.9 million metric tons. This situation resulted in a crop production deficit of 2.2 million metric tons in 2023.

On the Current Path, the crop production deficit will increase nearly fivefold to 9.9 million metric tons by 2043, with demand reaching 19.1 million metric tons against production of 9.2 million metric tons. This suggests that the country is straying from the SDG 2 goal of eradicating hunger, ensuring food security and enhancing nutrition by 2030.

Land reform also negatively affected agricultural losses (both post-harvest losses and food waste), irrigation development and rural road access, particularly in farming regions. Equipped irrigated land is crucial, especially as Zimbabwe has experienced inconsistent rainfall for over two decades. Additionally, rural road access is essential for improving agricultural efficiency, production and market access. Reducing agricultural losses is necessary to mitigate food shortages and prevent food price hikes, as production and distribution losses often result in higher costs for consumers.

Although crop production losses due to storage and distribution challenges will decrease slightly from 10.3% in 2023 to 9.7% in 2043 on the Current Path, they remain higher than the averages of lower-middle-income African countries. Before the land reform, equipped-irrigated land expanded from 109 000 hectares in 1990 to 174 000 hectares by 1999. However, growth stalled during the land reform crisis, only beginning to recover in 2017 through investments in large-scale and smallholder irrigation systems. By 2023, equipped-irrigated land had reached approximately 190 000 hectares. The Current Path shows a decline to 167 000 hectares by 2043.

Rural road access, once relatively strong before land reform, has deteriorated since the early 2000s. The proportion of the rural population with access to all-season roads declined from 65% in 2002 to 56% in 2020. Recent infrastructure investments have begun reversing this trend, increasing access to 57% by 2023. Consistent investments in road development could raise this figure to about 62% by 2023 on the Current Path.

In summary, Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector faces a complex array of challenges, including unstable crop yields, high production losses, dependence on rain-fed farming and deteriorating infrastructure. A comprehensive strategy involving major investments in irrigation, modern agricultural practices, rural road networks, and effective land reform policies could revitalise the sector. Without addressing these pressing issues, Zimbabwe’s agricultural performance will likely continue to lag behind regional peers, impacting long-term food security and economic stability.

Chart 15 presents the import dependence in the Current Path and the Agriculture scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

In the 1990s, Zimbabwe's agricultural sector was highly productive and diversified, enabling the country to achieve self-sufficiency in key commodities. Zimbabwe was a net exporter of agricultural products such as tobacco, maize, cotton and sugar, with tobacco being the largest contributor to foreign currency earnings. The highest dependence on imports occurred during the 1992 drought. However, by 1994, the country had significantly enhanced its self-sufficiency. While the country was largely self-reliant in food and cash crop production, it still imported a small portion of agricultural inputs, including fertilisers, machinery and seeds. Moreover, climatic risks, particularly for rain-fed farming, posed challenges as droughts occasionally necessitated imports of staple foods.

The early 2000s marked a dramatic shift in Zimbabwe’s agricultural landscape. The Land Reform Program, coupled with political instability and economic collapse, caused a sharp decline in agricultural output. The redistribution of commercial farms significantly reduced production as new farm owners often lacked resources and expertise, leading to widespread food insecurity. Zimbabwe became heavily reliant on imported food staples such as maize, wheat and rice to meet domestic demand. Shortages of essential inputs like fertilisers and seeds, compounded by a foreign exchange crisis, further exacerbated the situation. Tobacco and cotton production, once major exports, also declined, reducing the country’s capacity to earn foreign exchange. Since the 2001/2002 season, the country has shifted from self-sufficiency to import dependency.

During the 2010s, Zimbabwe began efforts to rebuild its agricultural sector, but challenges in achieving self-sufficiency persisted. While tobacco production recovered, overall agricultural output remained low, and import dependency on staples like maize, wheat and rice continued. Limited access to irrigation systems, unpredictable weather and rural infrastructure issues hindered productivity. Imported fertilisers, pesticides and equipment were critical to maintaining production, but high costs and limited foreign currency made these inputs inaccessible to many farmers. Periodic droughts and floods disrupted agriculture, increasing reliance on food imports to ensure food security.

By the 2020s, Zimbabwe's economic stability had improved, yet the agricultural sector continued to struggle with reducing import dependency which stood at 20% in 2023, up from 7% in 2002. Crop exports were approximately US$50 million, while imports were US$468 million. As a result, the crop trade deficit stood at roughly US$418 million in 2023.

The country remained reliant on imported agricultural inputs such as fertilisers, seeds and machinery to sustain productivity. Additionally, disease outbreaks highlighted ongoing challenges. While tobacco remained a major export crop and efforts were made to revive cotton and horticulture exports, overall export capacity was constrained by high input costs and low production levels. Furthermore, Zimbabwe's dependence on rain-fed agriculture and limited irrigation infrastructure left it vulnerable to climate variability, leading to inconsistent domestic production.

Looking ahead, the Current Path suggests that Zimbabwe's dependence on agriculture imports will worsen, reaching 53% by 2043. At the same time, agricultural imports will increase to US$2.03 billion while exports will drop significantly to US$1.2 million.

Zimbabwe's agricultural future relies on climate adaptation, technological investment, infrastructure development, economic stability and effective policy implementation. If these issues are not addressed, increasing agricultural output will remain a challenge. Hence, interventions in the Agriculture scenario focus on substantial investments in small-scale and large-scale irrigation systems, agricultural technology, climate-adaptive agricultural practices, infrastructure, agro-processing and nutrition. Strengthening domestic production capacity through these measures can lead to improved exports of tobacco and horticultural products, ultimately fostering a more resilient agricultural sector.

In the Agriculture scenario, dependence on agricultural imports will increase to 31% by 2043, compared to 53% on the Current Path. At the same time, agriculture exports will rise to US$180 million by 2043, far above the US$1.2 million on the Current Path, while import growth will be limited to US$1.5 billion, which is lower than the US$2.03 billion on the Current Path. 

Chart 16 depicts the progress through the educational system in the Current Path, for 2023 and 2043.

The Education scenario represents reasonable but ambitious improvements in intake, transition, and graduation rates from primary to tertiary levels, as well as better quality of education at primary and secondary levels. It also models substantive progress towards gender parity at all levels, additional vocational training at the secondary school level, and increases in the share of science and engineering graduates.

Visit the theme on Education for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

The educational landscape in Zimbabwe, particularly since the 1990s, has been shaped by various socio-economic and political factors that have impacted access, quality and gender parity across different education levels. Despite these challenges, the literacy rate among individuals aged 15 and older has steadily risen, from around 80% in 1990 to 90% in 2023. In 2024, Zimbabwe ranked among the top 10 African countries with the highest education levels, securing the 4th position. This ranking is based on literacy rates and years of schooling. The Current Path indicates that Zimbabwe’s literacy rate will reach 91% by 2030 and 96% by 2043. As a result, Zimbabwe aligns with SDG 4.6, which aims to ensure that all youth and a significant proportion of adults, regardless of gender, attain literacy and numeracy by 2030.

In the 1990s, Zimbabwe was a notable leader in educational attainment within sub-Saharan Africa, achieving near-universal primary education and substantial gender parity at both primary and secondary levels. The government's proactive investment in educational infrastructure and policies effectively reduced the gender gap, providing equal opportunities for boys and girls. Despite the robust enrollment figures, challenges loomed for secondary education where access was limited and many families could not afford associated costs.

The early 2000s brought a significant downturn as Zimbabwe experienced a severe economic crisis characterised by hyperinflation and declining governmental support for education. This crisis severely impacted secondary and tertiary education enrollment rates, particularly affecting girls due to economic pressures leading to higher dropout rates from schools and increased risks of early marriages and pregnancies.

International aid initiatives were instrumental in advancing gender parity and increasing girls' enrollment in both primary and secondary education during this challenging period. However, challenges persisted for women in tertiary education.

Following the dollarisation of the economy in 2009, Zimbabwe's education system began to show signs of recovery. Primary education net enrollment remained high and secondary school net enrollment gradually improved, although it was accompanied by issues such as overcrowded classrooms and inadequate infrastructure. Enhancements in gender parity continued, with an increasing presence of female students in tertiary institutions by the 2010s, reflecting a growing commitment to higher educational attainment regardless of gender.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 accelerated the implementation of online learning but the country's previously established digital infrastructure issues highlighted the uneven access to technology between urban and rural areas. Nevertheless, initiatives aimed at promoting gender equality and removing barriers for female students continued.

Looking ahead, the Current Path indicates that Zimbabwe will achieve the SDG 4 2030 target of at least 97% net primary enrollment and gender parity in primary education by 2043. Girls’ net enrollment rates will rise from 93% in 2023 to 100% by 2043, while boys' enrollment will increase from 80% to 94% during the same period.

In secondary education, the gender gap in net enrollment will close entirely by 2034 on the Current Path, with a net enrollment rate of 52%, up from 35% for females and 39% for males in 2023. This rate will rise to 56% by 2043. There is potential for improvement through initiatives like scholarships, mentorship programs and community-based efforts aimed at overcoming socio-cultural barriers such as early marriage and teenage pregnancies. These measures are crucial since the country's net secondary school enrollment rates are still lower than the average for lower-middle-income African countries. By 2043, this average will reach 63% after achieving gender parity at 60% in 2038 on the Current Path.

In tertiary education, the gender gap in gross enrollment closed at approximately 12% in 2023. However, the Current Path shows that it reopened in 2024, this time favouring females. Despite this shift, the gap will remain small as enrollment rates rise to about 26% for females and 23% for males by 2043. This trend is consistent with the average observed in lower-middle-income African countries, with marginal variations.

Zimbabwe has made significant progress toward gender parity in education, implementing policies to increase girls' enrollment in secondary education and tackle barriers like teenage pregnancy. By 2023, gender parity across all education levels was nearly 1:1, with almost equal gross enrollment rates for both genders. The Current Path indicates that parity levels will be maintained across all education levels through 2043.

The country's primary focus must be on enhancing the quality of tertiary education and equipping both male and female graduates with the skills needed to compete in a global economy. Future policies and reforms must also continue prioritising access to education and funding, especially in rural areas, while addressing gender disparities. As digital education gains prominence worldwide, Zimbabwe may further integrate online learning platforms; however, access to technology will remain a challenge unless significant infrastructure improvements are made.

Economic recovery and growth will be crucial in shaping the quality of education in the coming decades. A strong economy will enable better funding and accessibility for education. By 2043, gender parity in education is expected to be more firmly established, with more girls staying in school longer and entering traditionally male-dominated fields such as Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM). Additionally, the education system may see notable improvements in the transition from secondary to tertiary education, particularly in response to the growing global demand for skilled labour.

Chart 17 presents the mean years of education in the Current Path and in the Education scenario, from 2020 to 2043, for the 15 to 24 age group.

The average years of education in the adult population aged 15 to 24 is a good first indicator of how the stock of knowledge in society is changing.

Zimbabwe’s education system continues to face challenges, including inadequate infrastructure, teacher shortages and economic instability. Despite these obstacles, the country’s educational attainment remains competitive within the region.

In general, on the Current Path, the average years of educational attainment for adults aged 15 and older will increase, reaching 11.3 years for both males and females by 2040, remaining stable through 2043. This convergence marks a shift from the 2023 figures, which were 11.4 years for males and 11 years for females (11.2 years total).

Zimbabwe's Current Path trend on average years of adult educational attainment from 2023 to 2043 surpasses that of economically stable African countries such as Botswana, South Africa and Mauritius. However, these countries have achieved significantly higher average years of educational attainment among the lower youth age group (15–24 years) due to their stable economies and consequently well-funded education systems. The lower youth age group serves as a key indicator of a country's human capital stock.

On the Current Path, the average years of educational attainment for the lower youth age group (15–24 years) in Zimbabwe will see a slight increase from 8.5 years in 2023 (8.9 for females and 8.1 for males) to 8.6 years in 2043 (9 for females and 8.2 for males), peaking at 8.9 years in 2030 (9.4 for females and 8.5 for males). While these figures are slightly above the average for lower-middle-income African countries, there is still room for improvement to reach the levels of economically stable African countries.

The country’s education sector faces several key challenges, including inadequate infrastructure (both soft and hard), a shortage of teachers and insufficient funding all of which are rooted in political and economic instability. A stable political and economic environment would allow for greater investment in education, enhanced infrastructure and improved teacher availability.

Consequently, interventions in the Education scenario aim to address these challenges and enhance education outcomes beyond the Current Path. The long-term trajectory of educational attainment will also be shaped by reforms such as Education 5.0, introduced in the 2010s to emphasise higher education and skills development.

If interventions in the Education scenario are successfully implemented, the average years of schooling for adults aged 15 and older will increase to 11.4 years by 2043, compared to 11.3 years on the Current Path. Similarly, for the lower youth age group (15–24 years), the average educational attainment will reach 8.7 years in the Education scenario, slightly higher than the 8.6 years on the Current Path.

Additionally, policies supporting universal secondary education, vocational training, STEM qualifications and gender equality in education will contribute to progress. As of 2023, science and engineering students comprised 21% of tertiary graduates, a rate expected to remain the same by 2043 on the Current Path. However, in the Education scenario, interventions such as international programs and partnerships focused on STEM education in Africa could increase this rate to 26% by 2043. Global education trends, particularly advancements in digital learning, may also enhance STEM educational outcomes.

Chart 18 presents the value-add by sector as share of GDP in the Current Path, for 2023 and 2043.

In the Manufacturing scenario, reasonable but ambitious growth in manufacturing is envisaged through increased investment in the sector, research and development (R&D), and improved government regulation of businesses. This aims to enhance total labour participation rates, particularly among females where appropriate and is accompanied by increased welfare transfers to unskilled workers to mitigate the initial rises in inequality typically associated with a low-end manufacturing transition.

Visit the theme on Manufacturing for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions. 

Since 1990, Zimbabwe's manufacturing sector has experienced significant challenges and transformations. In the early 1990s, the sector was relatively robust, contributing a substantial portion to the country's GDP and employing a large workforce. However, economic instability, particularly due to political turmoil, weak governance and hyperinflation in the late 1990s and early 2000s, severely impacted industrial production.

The adoption of the Economic Structural Adjustment Program (ESAP) in the early 1990s aimed to liberalise the economy but led to increased unemployment and diminished domestic manufacturing capacity. The land reform program initiated in 2000 further exacerbated the situation, leading to the collapse of many agro-based industries, particularly in food and cotton processing.

By the mid-2000s, manufacturing output had declined significantly, with many factories closing due to a lack of investment, power shortages and a deteriorating infrastructure. However, after the introduction of the multi-currency system in 2009, some recovery was seen as businesses adapted to a more stable economic environment.

In the 2010s, the government made various efforts to revitalise the manufacturing sector, including policies aimed at attracting foreign investment, but challenges such as economic policy inconsistencies, limited access to financing and competition from manufactured imports, particularly from China, continued to hinder growth. By 2023, there have been sporadic signs of recovery and growth in specific industries. However, the manufacturing sector in Zimbabwe remains constrained by a combination of longstanding economic and political structural issues, largely stemming from poor regulation.

Although some reforms in the 2010s offered some hope for recovery, unfavourable business regulations contributed to economic decline and deindustrialisation, leading to a rise in informal enterprises. To this day, Zimbabwe’s business regulatory environment remains burdened by bureaucracy, a lack of transparency and extortion, all of which discourage the formalisation of informal businesses. Hence, by 2023, the Current Path indicates a significantly large size of the country’s informal sector, contributing 54% to GDP, compared to an average of 31% for lower-middle-income African countries. This situation highlights the need for regulatory reforms that promote a smooth transition to formalisation, allowing informal enterprises to eventually integrate into the formal economy.

Another key issue in the manufacturing sector relates to skills development, particularly among women, to achieve gender parity in the sector's workforce. Some policies have promoted female participation in the labour market, health and educational attainment but the manufacturing sector has largely remained disconnected from broader gender-focused economic reforms, limiting its overall productivity potential. Overall, the female labour participation rate stood at 80% compared to 89% for males in 2023. The Current Path suggests that this rate will rise to 83% by 2043. Be that as it may, it will still be lower than the male labour participation rate, which will remain steady at 89% throughout the same period. Skills development initiatives prioritising women in the manufacturing sector are therefore essential to help close this gender gap in the labour force.

Moreover, the manufacturing sector is experiencing a stark imbalance in labour demand, with a significant increase in unskilled labour demand forecast to rise from 549 930 to 844 470 by 2043, while skilled labour demand increases only slightly from 34 770 to 62 430 on the Current Path. This trend signals potential issues such as technological resistance, inadequate investment in workforce development and low productivity levels. A reliance on unskilled labour may also hinder innovation and competitiveness. The sector must implement strategies to attract skilled labour, invest in technology and cultivate a culture of innovation, which are essential for aligning with global trends and ensuring a sustainable economic future.

According to both endogenous and exogenous growth theories, relying solely on physical capital investment in the manufacturing sector without technological progress does not lead to sustainable growth. Therefore, policies aimed at increasing investment in the sector must be developed and revised alongside initiatives that promote industrial research and development (R&D) and skills development, among other technological factors. Beyond the issue of skills development, Zimbabwe’s manufacturing sector continues to lag in modern technology due to insufficient R&D. The Current Path indicates that R&D expenditure as a share of GDP will gradually increase from 0.18% in 2023 to 0.29% in 2043. However, it will still remain well below the average for lower-middle-income African countries, which is expected to rise from 0.34% to 2023 to 0.42% in the same period. To enhance manufacturing production and productivity, it is crucial to introduce tax incentives for research activities, provide grants for innovation hubs and strengthen collaboration between the government, universities and manufacturing firms. By aligning university research with industrial needs, the government can foster applied research that directly benefits the manufacturing sector.

Zimbabwe’s participation in regional trade agreements, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), could further drive manufacturing growth. Many African governments are improving regulatory frameworks to attract investment in value-added industries, particularly in technology, automotive and renewable energy. Attracting investments that promote beneficiation is essential, considering the country's abundance of mineral resources that are currently exported in their raw forms. For example, the country has a strong potential to attract manufacturing investments for electric vehicle batteries, as it possesses the largest lithium reserves in Africa and ranks 5th globally for lithium deposits.

As of 2023, Zimbabwe’s investment in manufacturing to GDP ratio was 2.8. The Current Path indicates that this ratio could peak at 3.2 before stabilising at 2.8 in 2043. In general, the Current Path trend from 2020 to 2043 depicts that policies aimed at attracting manufacturing investment should be reviewed regularly, ideally every five years, to maintain an upward investment trend in the sector.

In a nutshell, to enhance the manufacturing sector's contribution, it is essential to implement regulations that foster a conducive business environment, prioritise skills development initiatives with priority for women, adopt beneficiation policies, attract manufacturing investment, and promote industrial research and development (R&D). Without addressing these key factors, the sector risks stagnation or decline. On the Current Path, Zimbabwe’s manufacturing value-add remains stagnant at around 16% of GDP from 2020 to 2043 and will fall behind the average for lower-middle-income African countries by 2037/38.

Chart 19 presents the contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP in the Current Path and in the Manufacturing scenario, from 2020 to 2023. The data is in US$ and % of GDP.

Zimbabwe's manufacturing sector has faced significant challenges in maintaining its contribution to GDP since 1990. Several factors, including volatile business environment, insufficient R&D investment, lack of beneficiation investments and skills development, and ongoing political issues, have hampered growth of the sector.

The Manufacturing scenario includes interventions focused on regulatory reforms to support the transition from informal to formal enterprises. These efforts aim to create a stable, transparent and business-friendly environment by streamlining tax systems, reducing bureaucratic barriers and strengthening property rights. Additionally, the scenario emphasises skills development, particularly for women to achieve gender parity in the sector, increased investment in R&D to drive technological progress, and policies to promote beneficiation and manufacturing investments.

Implementing the Manufacturing scenario will revitalise Zimbabwe’s manufacturing sector, increasing its value-added share of GDP from a stagnant 16% between 2020 and 2043 to 19% by 2043 on the Current Path. This growth trajectory positions Zimbabwe’s manufacturing sector above the average for lower-middle-income African countries, where the share will rise from 13% in 2023 to 17% in 2043.

Chart 20 depicts exports and imports as a percentage of GDP, from 2000 to 2043, in the Current Path and in the AfCFTA scenario.

The AfCFTA scenario represents the impact of fully implementing the African Continental Free Trade Agreement by 2034. The scenario increases exports in manufacturing, agriculture, services, ICT, materials and energy exports. It also includes improved multifactor productivity growth from trade and reduced tariffs for all sectors. 

Visit the theme on AfCFTA for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was officially launched on 21 March 2018, with 44 African Union member states, including Zimbabwe, signing the agreement. Zimbabwe ratified it in 2019 and has since been aligning its policies to maximise the benefits of economic integration. Following ratification, the country engaged stakeholders to ensure preparedness and committed to gradually reducing tariffs on various goods. Reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers lowers export costs, boosting Zimbabwe’s competitiveness in the African market, which had over 1.5 billion people in 2023 and will grow to 2.3 billion by 2043 on the Current Path. Additionally, Zimbabwe has been working to improve trade infrastructure, increase industrial output and align national policies with AfCFTA regulations.

As of 2023, Zimbabwe actively participated in regional discussions to leverage AfCFTA for growth and has developed a National Strategy for AfCFTA Implementation aimed at enhancing trade, promoting SMEs and improving the business environment. Collaborative efforts among government, private sectors and trade associations are ongoing to prepare Zimbabwean businesses for the continental market.

Zimbabwe's implementation of AfCFTA is progressing gradually despite challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic. Steady advancements are positioning the country for significant benefits by 2043 as it works to diversify its export basket beyond minerals such as gold, platinum and diamonds, as well as agricultural products like tobacco and sugar. Additionally, Zimbabwe aims to reduce its dependence on extra-African sources for essential goods, including fuel, machinery, vehicles and food products.

The Current Path indicates that Zimbabwe’s trade-to-GDP ratio will rise from 56% in 2023 to 66% by 2043. This increase is mainly driven by imports, which will grow from 30% to 36% of GDP, while exports will rise from 25% to 30% in the same period. The rise in exports, although still lower than import levels, aligns with the opportunities created by AfCFTA and other economic initiatives designed to improve the country’s trade performance.

The AfCFTA is also expected to enhance Zimbabwe's knowledge capital through various channels, including increased collaboration opportunities, knowledge exchange and technology transfer across Africa. However, on the Current Path, the knowledge human capital index will decline slightly from 0.72 in 2023 to 0.71 in 2043, with a peak of 0.73 in 2030. While these figures are higher than the forecasted averages for AfCFTA non-least Developed Countries (LDCs) and lower-middle-income African countries—forecast to be 0.56 and 0.51 in 2023 and 0.66 and 0.62 in 2043, respectively—Zimbabwe has the potential to transition into a more knowledge-driven economy as the AfCFTA implementation progresses. This transition could significantly contribute to its economic and technological development within the African continent.

Chart 21 presents the trade balance in the Current Path and in the AfCFTA scenario, from 2020 to 2043 as a percentage of GDP.

Trade initiatives like the AfCFTA generally promote trade openness, allowing participating countries to diversify their exports and markets. However, when countries do not have competitive domestic products, such initiatives can lead to the crowding out of local goods. This issue is often seen in extra-African trade initiatives, such as the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), but it can also occur in intra-African trade if a country's manufacturing costs are higher than those of its peers.

A pertinent example is Zimbabwe, which has faced a crowding-out effect due to both extra-African and intra-African trade since the economic crisis hit the country in the early 2000s. Domestic consumers and industries began to prefer cheaper imports from South Africa, Botswana and China over more expensive, locally manufactured products. Compounding this issue was the inability of the local production sector to scale up and meet domestic demand, leading to significant shortages. As a result, Zimbabwe's trade balance shifted dramatically from a surplus of 3.9% of GDP in 1999 to a record deficit of 26.6% in 2008.

The adoption of the dollarisation, which stimulated domestic production, helped ease these challenges, allowing the trade balance to recover to a surplus of 1.6% in 2019. However, a return to using the local currency seems to be reverting the country to its pre-dollarisation circumstances, with the trade deficit widening to 5.1% in 2023. On the Current Path this figure will worsen to 7.7% in 2034, before bouncing back to 5.5% in 2043.

If interventions in the AfCFTA scenario are effectively implemented, Zimbabwe’s trade deficit could shrink to 3.6% of GDP by 2043, compared to 5.5% on the Current Path.

To fully benefit from AfCFTA, Zimbabwe should prioritise strengthening its exporters, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), by providing training programs to help them meet regional market standards. Additionally, the country must track its integration progress, implement policies that enhance export growth through diversification and value addition, and promote industrialisation and infrastructure development. These initiatives are vital to ensuring that export growth keeps pace with rising imports to maintain a favourable trade balance.

Regarding sectoral impact, the interventions under the AfCFTA scenario will significantly drive export growth in materials, followed by services, agriculture, ICT and energy. However, manufacturing exports will be negatively affected, indicating a crowding-out effect. This suggests that for Zimbabwe to fully leverage AfCFTA opportunities, it must focus on strengthening its manufacturing sector and improving its competitiveness relative to other African countries, as highlighted in the Manufacturing scenario. Currently, the sector faces several challenges, including outdated infrastructure, a lack of industrial research and innovation, insufficient skills and severe energy shortages. Overall, the trajectory of the AfCFTA scenario indicates that AfCFTA presents substantial opportunities to boost Zimbabwe's exports. 

Chart 22 presents the Current Path of access to electricity for urban, rural and the total population from 2000 to 2043.

The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario involves ambitious investments in road and renewable energy infrastructure, improved electricity access and accelerated broadband connectivity. It summarises adopting modern technologies to enhance government efficiency and incorporates significant investments in major infrastructure projects like rail, ports, and airports while highlighting the positive impacts of renewables and ICT.

Visit the themes on Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

Zimbabwe, like many lower-middle-income African countries, struggles with a significant infrastructure deficit, including inadequate energy supply, transportation networks, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) facilities, and water and sanitation facilities. These challenges impede domestic and regional trade, discourage investment and reduce the country's global competitiveness, ultimately slowing economic growth and affecting social well-being. Addressing these issues is crucial to unlocking Zimbabwe’s economic potential.

In 2024, the country ranked 20th out of 54 African countries on the composite African Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI). It secured 14th place in the transport category, 17th in energy, 24th in ICT, and 29th in water and sanitation. Additionally, in 2018, it held the 13th position for infrastructural regional integration in Africa, indicating that the country performs at an average level on the continent.

Zimbabwe had a relatively stable electricity system in the 1990s, primarily relying on hydropower from the Kariba Dam and thermal energy from coal-fired plants like the Hwange and Munyati Power Station. However, rural areas remained largely unconnected. The economy was fairly stable, and government efforts to expand electricity access saw some success, with overall access increasing from 28% in 1992 to 38% in 1999. Rural electrification played a major role in this progress, with rural access rising from 3% to 14%, while urban access saw a minor increase from 85% to 87% during the same period.

Financial difficulties in the early 2000s constrained infrastructure development, leading to more frequent power outages. Economic and political instability, including hyperinflation, severely impacted the power sector, causing a decline in industrial production and making it difficult for the government to maintain the national grid. Despite these challenges, electricity access rose from 34% in 2000 to 43% in 2009, driven primarily by rural electrification, which increased rural access from 7% to 20%, while urban access improved from 85% to 91%. However, frequent power cuts and load shedding disrupted urban areas, as power plants suffered from underinvestment and failed to meet growing demand. Zimbabwe increasingly relied on electricity imports from neighbouring countries like South Africa.

In the 2010s, the country sought to stabilise its economy but continued facing challenges, including poor infrastructure, high debt and limited investment in the energy sector. By the late 2010s, electricity access had improved slightly but remained below 50%. Rural electrification initiatives had limited success, while urban centres still faced shortages. The government and private sector explored alternative energy solutions, particularly solar power, to address supply gaps. Some rural areas turned to off-grid solar solutions, and efforts were made to expand existing power plants, such as the Hwange Power Station and Kariba hydropower facilities. However, progress was slow due to financial limitations.

By the 2020s, Zimbabwe shifted towards renewable energy sources, particularly solar, to tackle electricity shortages. National access to electricity increased from 47% in 2019 to 56% in 2023, with rural access nearly doubling from 28% to 40%, while urban access rose from 85% to 90%. With continued investments in renewables and grid improvements, national electricity access could reach 62% by 2030 and 78% by 2043 on the Current Path. The Current Path indicates that urban areas will achieve full electricity access by 2035, while rural access will grow to 45% in 2030 and 67% by 2043.

Zimbabwe’s road infrastructure was relatively well-developed in the early 1990s, especially in urban areas, connecting major cities such as Harare, Bulawayo, Mutare, Gweru and Masvingo. By 1994, approximately 55% of roads were paved and well-maintained, supporting trade and travel. However, political instability and economic decline in the late 1990s led to a deterioration of infrastructure. By 1998, the proportion of paved roads had declined to 47%, and rural roads remained underdeveloped, limiting access to essential services. Road accidents increased due to poor maintenance of roads and vehicles.

Many roads deteriorated around the 2000s when infrastructure maintenance programs collapsed due to a harsh economic environment. Major highways sustained severe damage because the government lacked resources for repairs. By 2019, only 19% of roads were paved. Rural areas suffered the most, and transportation became increasingly unreliable, which was exacerbated by fuel shortages. The informal transport sector grew, with minibus taxis and private cars becoming a common mode of travel.

In the 2010s, efforts were made to rehabilitate major highways, such as the Harare-Bulawayo and Harare-Mutare roads, but progress was slow. International loans, including funding from the African Development Bank, were sought to support road rehabilitation. The Beitbridge-Harare-Chirundu highway, a crucial trade route, is expected to be completed by 2030, improving regional connectivity. The Current Path suggests that paved roads will increase from 20% in 2023 to 23% in 2030 and 32% by 2043. These figures remain below the average of lower-middle-income African countries, indicating ongoing infrastructure deficits.

Zimbabwe’s railway network, once a vital transport system inherited from the colonial era, has suffered from neglect. In the late 1990s, lack of investment, political instability and mismanagement led to its decline. As road transport grew and the economy weakened, rail services became unreliable. By the 2000s, the National Railways of Zimbabwe (NRZ) faced severe infrastructure deterioration, outdated trains and funding shortages. Freight and passenger services dwindled, making rail transport less competitive. Attempts to rehabilitate the railway sector in the 2010s included seeking foreign investment, but progress was slow. Freight corridors saw some upgrades, and passenger services on certain routes, like Harare to Bulawayo, were reintroduced, though they remained unreliable. By the 2020s, the railway sector had nearly collapsed. The recovery of Zimbabwe’s rail transport hinges on substantial foreign investment and modernisation efforts.

Zimbabwe’s aviation sector was once strong, with Harare International Airport (now Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport) serving as a major hub. However, economic mismanagement and sanctions led to its decline. Air Zimbabwe struggled with financial losses, an ageing fleet and reduced international passenger demand. The 2000-2010 economic crisis nearly collapsed the airline, while airport infrastructure deteriorated. Since the 2010s, revival efforts have focused on upgrading major airports and attracting private airlines, such as Fastjet. Some progress has been made, particularly with the expansion and modernisation of Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport, which began in 2018 and was completed in 2023. However, the aviation industry continues to struggle with financial viability, limiting effective air travel options.

From 1990 to 2043, Zimbabwe’s transportation infrastructure faced severe challenges, particularly during economic and political crises. However, with strategic investments in roads, rail and aviation, the country has the potential to modernise its transport sector, improve connectivity and integrate more effectively into regional trade networks. By 2043, Zimbabwe could see a significantly improved transport infrastructure with a more reliable road network, a revitalised railway system and a strengthened aviation sector. This is supported by the country’s transport infrastructure index, which, through these initiatives, can improve from -0.25 in 2023 to -0.09 in 2043 on the Current Path.

Access to clean water and sanitation services is one of the most pressing issues in Zimbabwe, with only 32% of the population enjoying access to safely managed water services as of 2023. Rural areas are disproportionately affected, with only 15% having access to clean water. The situation is similarly precarious in sanitation, where only 28% (33% in rural areas and 19% in urban areas) of the population benefited from safely managed services in 2023. While there are ongoing efforts by the government to improve water supply and sanitation, a lack of adequate funding hinders progress. The Current Path indicates an increase in the proportion of people with access to safely managed water services and sanitation to 47% (31% in rural areas and 79% in urban areas) and 43% (47% in rural areas and 37% in urban areas) by 2043, respectively. Efforts to improve access to safely managed water services and sanitation are undermined by outdated infrastructure, persistent droughts and inadequate financial resources. However, targeted initiatives, such as promoting rainwater harvesting and enhancing solar-powered systems, can play significant roles in advancing water and sanitation accessibility, particularly in rural areas.

Overall, Zimbabwe's way forward involves strategic and innovative investments across its infrastructure sectors. For economic revitalisation and social development, it is essential to prioritise the rehabilitation of critical energy systems, the expansion of reliable transportation networks, the modernisation of water and sanitation facilities, and the enhancement of ICT capabilities. By leveraging partnerships with international organisations and employing innovative solutions, Zimbabwe can begin to address its longstanding infrastructure deficits, fostering an environment conducive to sustainable economic growth and improved quality of life for its citizens. The potential for improvement is significant, but realising this potential will require sustained commitment and effective governance.

Chart 23 presents the number of people using cookstoves in the Current Path and in the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

In the 1990s, the vast majority of Zimbabweans used traditional cookstoves fueled by firewood or charcoal. These traditional cookstoves were often open fires or basic mud stoves, especially in rural areas. While many urban households began using more modern cooking methods, including gas stoves, the majority of the population still relied on wood and charcoal due to limited access to electricity and gas in rural areas. Traditional stoves are inefficient and produce a lot of smoke, contributing to indoor air pollution. This posed significant health risks, particularly respiratory illnesses, as well as deforestation due to over-reliance on firewood. Some initiatives by the government and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) were underway to promote the use of improved cookstoves that were more energy-efficient and produced less smoke. These stoves were designed to address the environmental and health challenges of traditional stoves but had limited reach, especially in rural areas.

The economic crisis in Zimbabwe during the 2000s led to fuel shortages, making it even more difficult for households to access cooking gas, electricity or kerosene. As a result, the use of firewood and charcoal became even more widespread, especially in rural and peri-urban areas. While improved cookstoves were promoted, the economic instability meant that many households could not afford them. People continued using open fires or simple, locally made stoves. Rural areas remained heavily dependent on traditional stoves, while urban areas saw more usage of charcoal stoves due to better access to this fuel and slightly higher access to alternative cooking methods (e.g., gas). NGOs continued to promote the use of energy-efficient, improved cookstoves in rural areas, but the success of these programs was mixed due to economic constraints and lack of widespread adoption. Some households began using alternative fuels, like biogas, but these solutions were still limited to a few areas and were not widespread.

In the 2010s, there was a growing awareness of the negative environmental and health impacts of traditional cookstoves. As a result, the adoption of improved cookstoves began to increase, especially in rural areas. The rise of solar energy solutions in Zimbabwe also provided opportunities for solar-powered cookstoves or cookers, though these were still relatively limited in rural areas. However, the trend toward renewable energy and solar cookstoves was starting to gain attention, particularly in off-grid areas. In urban areas, gas stoves became more common, though their usage remained uneven, with some households relying on charcoal and firewood due to the cost of gas. With increased awareness of indoor air pollution and its health impacts, there was a push for more sustainable cooking practices. The government and NGOs launched campaigns to promote cleaner cooking technologies. The government and NGOs began to invest more in educating the public about the benefits of clean cookstoves and provide subsidies or loans to make improved stoves more affordable. Solar-powered cookstoves started to be introduced in some rural areas, particularly in off-grid communities where access to traditional energy sources like electricity was limited. However, adoption was slow due to the high upfront costs of these technologies.

By 2023, a total of 102 490 people had adopted improved cookstoves. The Current Path indicates that this number will rise to 109 310 people by 2043, peaking at 118 960 people in 2034. Although the total number of users will increase with population growth, the percentage of households using these stoves will decrease from 3.1% in 2023 to 1.2% in 2043 on the Current Path.

However, a shift towards cleaner cooking technologies, such as solar cookers, biogas stoves and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stoves, is expected, particularly in urban areas. As government incentives and global sustainability initiatives promote clean cooking, the adoption of modern fuel-powered cookstoves will rise significantly. Consequently, the number of people using improved cookstoves will decline to 82 030 (1.4% of households) by 2043 in the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, compared to 109 310 (1.2% of households) on the Current Path. The use of modern fuel cookstoves is set to increase from 1.2 million people (37% of households) in 2023 to 3.7 million people (63% of households) by 2043 on the Current Path.

Increased access to electricity, particularly through decentralised solar systems, will support the growth of electric cooking technologies (such as induction cookers) in both urban and rural areas. LPG could also become a more widely used cooking fuel due to improvements in distribution networks. As awareness of environmental issues like deforestation and air pollution grows, more households will make the transition from traditional cookstoves to cleaner, more sustainable alternatives. The government, supported by international donors and NGOs, is likely to increase efforts to make clean cookstoves more affordable. There could be subsidies, micro-financing options and policy incentives aimed at accelerating the transition. Solar cookers and solar-powered cooking technologies could see increased adoption, particularly in rural areas, supported by the falling costs of solar panels and increased awareness of their environmental benefits. These initiatives will improve the adoption of modern fuel-powered cookstoves to 4.2 million people (72% of the households) by 2043 in the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, compared to 3.7 million people (63% of households) on the Current Path.

In the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, Zimbabwe could achieve near-universal access to clean and efficient cookstoves by 2043, with approximately 72% of households using modern fuel-powered cookstoves. Traditional cooking methods, like open fires and rudimentary biomass stoves, will become rare as most households transition to clean cooking technologies. Solar-powered and electric stoves will become common, particularly in areas with reliable access to renewable energy. These technologies will help reduce reliance on firewood and charcoal, contributing to environmental sustainability and reducing deforestation. In urban areas, where electricity access is expected to improve to 100% by 2033, electric cooking methods such as induction stoves could become more widespread. These stoves are energy-efficient and have the potential to work well with smart grid systems for load management. The government could implement regulations requiring clean cooking technologies to meet specific environmental and health standards, ensuring that all new stoves meet a high level of efficiency and safety. Zimbabwe may collaborate with international bodies and other African countries to create a regional clean cooking network, improving access to technologies and reducing costs.

Chart 24 presents the percentage of the population and number of people with access to mobile and fixed broadband in the Current Path and in the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, from 2020 to 2043. The user can toggle between mobile and fixed broadband. 

Access to mobile and fixed broadband in Zimbabwe has evolved significantly from 1990 to 2023, driven by technological advancements, economic challenges, government policies, and shifts in global trends. In the 1990s, access to fixed-line broadband in Zimbabwe was extremely limited. The country’s telecommunications infrastructure was still heavily reliant on landlines, with internet access largely restricted to a few urban areas and businesses. Dial-up internet connections were common, but speeds were slow, and the overall accessibility was limited. Mobile telephony was still in its infancy during the early 1990s. The first mobile phone networks began to emerge in the mid-1990s, with the introduction of Econet Wireless in 1998, which marked the beginning of mobile communication for many Zimbabweans. The internet was largely available through dial-up connections, often expensive and unreliable, particularly in rural areas. Access to online services and digital communication remained a luxury for a limited portion of the population, mainly in cities. High technology costs, limited infrastructure, and the lack of widespread electricity access in rural areas prevented the expansion of Internet and mobile access. The government maintained tight control over communication services, including the regulation of internet access.

In the early 2000s, mobile telecommunications saw rapid growth with the expansion of Econet Wireless and the introduction of new operators like NetOne and Telecel. Mobile phones became increasingly affordable and widespread, making mobile communication accessible to a larger portion of the population. Fixed broadband remained limited and was primarily available in urban centres. Dial-up connections were still in use, but technologies like Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) and fibre-optic broadband began to emerge in some urban areas by the end of the decade. However, widespread adoption of fixed broadband was hindered by the country's economic instability. Mobile internet began to gain traction as General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) and EDGE technologies were introduced, allowing for basic mobile data services, albeit at slow speeds. Short Message Service (SMS) and Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) were the primary ways of accessing mobile internet. Zimbabwe's economic difficulties, including hyperinflation, impacted investment in the communications sector, and the country experienced severe foreign currency shortages that affected the importation of infrastructure and equipment. While mobile phone penetration grew, internet connectivity remained slow and unreliable. Rural areas continued to face challenges in terms of both mobile and fixed broadband access. The liberalisation of Zimbabwe's telecommunications market in the early 2000s allowed for increased competition among service providers, though regulatory challenges and economic instability slowed the pace of development. The majority of mobile and broadband users were located in urban areas, with rural areas still lagging in terms of connectivity.

The 2010s saw the introduction of 3G networks by mobile operators like Econet, NetOne and Telecel, enabling faster mobile internet access. The expansion of mobile data services significantly boosted mobile broadband usage, particularly in urban areas, where smartphones became more affordable. The proliferation of smartphones helped drive internet access, as many Zimbabweans began using mobile phones not only for voice communication but also for browsing, social media and digital payments. Mobile broadband subscriptions surged from 0.4 per 100 people in 2010 to approximately 49 per 100 people in 2019. The use of fixed broadband saw gradual improvements, with more fibre-optic and ADSL connections being established in urban centres. It increased from 0.3 subscriptions per 100 people in 2010 to 1.3 subscriptions per 100 people in 2019. However, fixed broadband remained relatively expensive and limited to higher-income households and businesses. By the end of the decade, Zimbabwe had started the rollout of 4G LTE networks, providing faster internet speeds and opening up opportunities for more digital services.

The cost of mobile data and smartphones remained a significant barrier for many Zimbabweans despite mobile internet becoming more widespread. This was particularly true in rural areas, where affordability was a major issue. Frequent power outages and unreliable infrastructure, particularly in rural areas, hampered the growth of both fixed and mobile broadband networks. While fibre optic infrastructure expanded, it was mostly limited to major cities and urban centres, with rural areas still struggling to access high-speed broadband services. The Zimbabwean government began to focus more on ICT development and the digital economy. Initiatives such as the National Broadband Plan 2020-2030 sought to promote broadband expansion, but the government's limited capacity for implementation often slowed progress. The introduction of mobile money platforms like EcoCash was a significant leap in mobile technology, particularly for those without access to formal banking systems, and spurred further use of mobile phones for various services.

By the 2020s, mobile broadband access continued to grow, with the rollout of 4G services becoming more widespread, providing faster and more reliable connections in both urban and rural areas. The expansion of 5G networks is also expected, though it may start in urban areas and eventually extend to rural regions in the later part of the decade. With increasing affordability and mobile network expansion, smartphones are becoming more ubiquitous, providing greater access to mobile internet, e-commerce, mobile banking and online education. The mobile broadband subscriptions further surged from 49 in 2019 to 68 subscribers per 100 people in 2023. Fixed broadband, particularly fibre-optic internet, became more accessible in major cities and expanded into peri-urban and rural areas. Government initiatives and private sector investments assisted in reducing the cost of installation and increased accessibility. The fixed broadband subscriptions increased from 1.3 in 2019 to 3.7 subscribers per 100 people in 2023.

Despite improvements, a significant digital divide may persist between urban and rural areas, with urban areas enjoying faster and more reliable broadband services. Data costs may remain high compared to global standards, affecting affordability for many Zimbabweans, especially in lower-income households. Zimbabwe's government will likely prioritise the development of a digital economy, leveraging broadband to promote services such as e-commerce, telemedicine, education and remote work. Policies may be implemented to drive down the cost of broadband services, including regulatory measures for price reduction, subsidies for rural broadband infrastructure and public-private partnerships. All these initiatives play a vital role in achieving the universal broadband access goal, ensuring that both mobile and fixed broadband are widely accessible and affordable for all Zimbabweans. The Current Path suggests that mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions will increase to 145 and 29 subscribers per 100 people in 2043, respectively. Rural areas will have comparable access to urban areas, reducing the digital divide.

The 5G networks will likely be widespread by the early 2030s, providing ultra-fast internet speeds, improved connectivity for IoT (Internet of Things) devices and enhanced digital services for Zimbabweans. The rollout of smart city initiatives in urban areas will be powered by fast and reliable broadband, facilitating better services such as smart traffic management, waste management and energy distribution. While broadband access will improve, economic challenges could limit full affordability for all citizens, particularly in lower-income households. Ongoing efforts will be required to maintain and upgrade infrastructure, especially in rural and underserved areas. Hence, both public and private sector investments will be essential in developing and maintaining broadband infrastructure. International collaborations and partnerships may help drive investments in expanding both mobile and fixed broadband coverage. Furthermore, national programs to improve digital literacy will become a key part of Zimbabwe's strategy to ensure that all citizens can take full advantage of broadband access.

These interventions have the potential to increase mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions to 147 and 30 subscribers per 100 people, respectively, in the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, compared to 145 and 29 subscribers per 100 people in 2043 on the Current Path.

In summary, from 1990 to 2023, access to mobile and fixed broadband in Zimbabwe has evolved significantly. In the early years, the country had limited access, especially in rural areas, with mobile phones being the main mode of communication. By the 2010s, mobile broadband began to expand with the rollout of 3G and 4G networks and fixed broadband remained concentrated in urban areas. Moving into the 2020s and beyond, the country is projected to achieve near-universal broadband access, driven by the expansion of mobile networks, the introduction of 5G and increased fibre-optic deployment. Government initiatives, the growing importance of digital services and a focus on affordable connectivity will be key to ensuring widespread access to fast and reliable broadband in Zimbabwe by 2043.

Chart 25 presents the trends in FDI, aid and remittances in the Current Path and in the Financial Flows scenario as a percentage of GDP, from 1990 to 2043.

The Financial Flows scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious increase in inward flows of worker remittances, aid to poor countries and an increase in the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) and additional portfolio investment inflows. We reduce outward financial flows to emulate a reduction in illicit financial outflows.

Visit the theme on Financial Flows for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

To analyse external financial inflows to Zimbabwe from 1990 to 2043, it is essential to examine key periods in the country's financial history and assess various sources of external funding, including foreign aid, remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI), loans and other forms of international financial assistance.

Zimbabwe experienced relative economic stability in the early 1990s but faced challenges later in the decade. The economy was affected by the launch of economic reforms (ESAP) in the early 1990s, leading to austerity measures that reduced state spending. During this period, Zimbabwe received significant foreign aid and concessional loans from international bodies like the IMF, World Bank and bilateral donors. Many Zimbabweans moved abroad, particularly to the United Kingdom and South Africa, sending remittances home. The share of foreign aid, remittances and FDI inflows in GDP spiked from around 4% in 1990 to 12% in 1992, -0.1% in 1990 to 12% in 2009, and -0.1% in 1990 to 7% in 1998, respectively.  Zimbabwe's external debt began to rise, which affected future foreign inflows due to the increased repayment burden.

From 2000 onwards, the government's controversial land reform program worsened relations with Western donors and international creditors. This led to the imposition of sanctions by Western countries, which significantly reduced the inflow of financial support and FDI. Aid and FDI shares in GDP dropped to around 3% and 0.2% in 2004, respectively. The economy faced hyperinflation, which reached unprecedented levels by the mid-2000s, making the country effectively a pariah in the global economic system. International financial institutions withdrew support. Despite the economic collapse, remittances from Zimbabweans living abroad continued to grow, particularly from Zimbabweans in South Africa, Botswana, the UK and other countries, becoming a crucial source of foreign currency. Likewise, financial aid surged again to a record high of approximately 15% in 2008.

In 2009, Zimbabwe abandoned its currency in favour of using foreign currencies, primarily the US dollar. This period marked a semblance of stabilisation, which allowed for an influx of goods and services into the economy. During this period, Zimbabwe began to receive more support from international bodies like the IMF and World Bank, as well as from China and other emerging economies. However, the country's external debt remained a significant challenge. Remittances continued to grow to a record high of approximately 14% in 2011 and were vital in supporting households. FDI began to increase again, although slowly, especially from China, India and South Africa.

From 2014 to 2019, Zimbabwe continued to experience economic stagnation under President Robert Mugabe’s leadership. There were some attempts at economic reform but no significant breakthroughs in attracting large-scale FDI. Zimbabwe’s external debt continued to increase, which further strained its ability to receive financial inflows. The IMF and World Bank restricted funding due to Zimbabwe’s failure to meet debt obligations. China became a major player in providing loans and investments, particularly in mining and infrastructure sectors, with a focus on securing access to natural resources in exchange for financing.

The transition following the fall of former President Robert Mugabe in 2017 under President Emmerson Mnangagwa initially raised hopes for economic recovery in Zimbabwe. However, the country's political instability, corruption and significant foreign debt—59% of GDP by 2020—hampered substantial foreign investment. The global pandemic further exacerbated Zimbabwe's economic challenges, leading to a decrease in foreign investment and remittances.

By 2023, diaspora remittances had dropped to 8% of GDP, although they still provided vital support for many families. FDI improved, rising from 0.6% of GDP in 2021 to approximately 3.1% in 2023. Additionally, the debt situation showed signs of improvement, decreasing to 26% of GDP in 2023. While international financial institutions offered limited support under specific conditions, Zimbabwe continued to struggle with challenges related to external debt and ongoing political instability. Financial aid has consistently declined from 15% in 2008 to around 3% in 2023.

If Zimbabwe implements effective economic reforms, it could potentially attract more FDI, particularly from neighbouring countries and other emerging economies, growing to 3.8% by 2043 on the Current Path. As Zimbabwe strengthens its regional ties within the SADC and the African Union through AfCFTA, it may experience increased foreign inflows from regional trade and investment. This could help reduce the country’s external debt burden to a net credit position of approximately 0.2% of GDP by 2030 on the Current Path. Beyond 2030, Zimbabwe might be able to negotiate debt restructuring with international creditors, potentially leading to the resumption of concessional loans by 2040. This, in turn, will increase external debt financing to around 2% of GDP by 2043 on the Current Path. Although the diaspora remittances are expected to continue playing a significant role in supporting livelihoods and the economy, their contributions may decrease to 5% by 2043 on the Current Path.

The Financial Flows scenario will boost FDI to around 5% by 2043, compared to 3.8% on the Current Path. The country can also benefit from international climate finance as it works to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Initiatives to expand financial inclusion through fintech, mobile payments, and banking can slightly ease the decline of remittance from 8% in 2023 to 6% by 2043 in the Financial Flows scenario, compared to 5% on the Current Path.

Overall, interventions in the Financial Flows scenario are crucial to reducing the country’s dependence on financial aid. Thus, the share of aid receipts in GDP will constantly drop to 0.5% in 2043 in the Financial Flows scenario, slightly lower than the 0.6% on the Current Path. Given that USAID is the primary donor in Zimbabwe, the decline in financial aid to the country also reflects Trump's foreign policy, which aims to reduce aid to developing countries and prioritise US development goals. Interventions in the Financial Flows scenario are also essential for rebuilding the country's credibility with international creditors, the World Bank and IMF by ensuring transparency and institutional reforms. As a result, external debt financing will reach approximately 4% of GDP by 2043 under the Financial Flows scenario, compared to 2% on the Current Path.

In summary, external financial inflows to Zimbabwe have fluctuated significantly due to economic, political and social factors. Over the next two decades, the country has the potential to attract more foreign investment and development aid if it addresses issues like political instability, external debt and economic diversification. However, external inflows will continue to depend heavily on Zimbabwe’s ability to implement reforms and improve its international standing.

Chart 26 presents government revenue in the Current Path and in the Financial Flows scenario, from 2020 to 2043. The data is in US$ 2017 or % of GDP.  

Wagner’s law, or the law of increasing state activity, is the observation that public expenditure increases as national income rises. It is reasonable to expect that government revenues will increase as a percentage of GDP in the Financial Flows scenario compared to the Current Path.

During the early 1990s, Zimbabwe's government revenue was relatively stable but began to decrease toward the end of the decade due in part to the economic decline, structural adjustment programs, and the impacts of external sanctions and political instability. The early 2000s saw a significant drop in government revenue due to hyperinflation, which reached unprecedented levels in 2008. The country's economy contracted severely, leading to a collapse of formal fiscal systems and the dollarisation of the economy in 2009. After the adoption of the US dollar in 2009, Zimbabwe's fiscal system became more stable, though revenue generation remained low due to a shrinking tax base, high unemployment and the informal economy. However, government revenue began to rise slowly in the mid-2010s as the economy grew marginally.

The reintroduction of the Zimbabwean dollar in 2019, along with the “austerity for prosperity” measures, led to a slight recovery in government revenue, rising from 13% of GDP (US$ 2.07 billion) in 2020 to 14% (US$2.7 billion) in 2023. While these measures aim to curb unproductive government spending, they have had more negative effects than positive ones, particularly on the working class and business sector, which have faced continuous tax hikes in every annual fiscal policy. Additionally, the general population has struggled with inflationary pressures driven by rising production and distribution costs. These policies have also created growth challenges for the informal sector.

Predicting government revenue in Zimbabwe up to 2043 is speculative and depends on numerous factors, including political stability, economic reforms, external factors (e.g., commodity prices, foreign aid) and natural disasters. Assuming Zimbabwe implements effective economic reforms, such as improved infrastructure, education and private sector development, economic growth could lead to higher tax revenues. High inflation, as seen in recent years, could undermine the real value of government revenue. If inflation remains under control, it will stabilise government receipts. External financing (loans or aid from organisations like the IMF or World Bank) might play a significant role in bolstering government revenue, especially if the country successfully negotiates debt relief and grants. Expanding the formal tax base by encouraging the formalisation of the informal enterprises would help increase government revenue. The government could adopt more progressive taxation policies or improve tax collection efficiency.

As a result, if Zimbabwe maintains moderate economic growth with stable inflation, the share of government revenue in GDP can increase slightly from 14% in 2023 to 16% (US$4.25 billion) by 2030 on the Current Path. If economic recovery continues and political stability is sustained beyond 2030, government revenue as a share of GDP will see a more substantial rise to 17.52% (US$11.8 billion) by 2043 on the Current Path. This figure will rise slightly to 17.53%, amounting to US$12.3 billion in the Financial Flows scenario.

Overall, government revenue growth will largely depend on the country's overall economic performance, potentially increasing at a rate similar to GDP growth. This holds true for Zimbabwe, where both the average GDP and government revenue growth rates are forecast to be around 6% from 2023 to 2043 on the Current Path.

The above forecasts could be improved if Zimbabwe diversifies its economy to manufacturing and services, moving away from dependence on agriculture and mining. Zimbabwe may also attract more investments if improvements in infrastructure, governance and political stability continue.

Chart 27 presents the Current Path of government effectiveness, comparing the country to the average for the Africa income group, from 2002 to 2043.

The World Bank’s index on government effectiveness captures perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government’s commitment to such policies.

The effectiveness of government is a critical factor in shaping the economic landscape of any country, serving as a foundation for stability and growth through fostering an environment conducive to both domestic and foreign investment. The case of Zimbabwe illustrates a complex interplay between government effectiveness and a history marked by political instability, economic mismanagement and social unrest.

Historically, Zimbabwe's path has been influenced heavily by the leadership of President Robert Mugabe, particularly from the 1990s onward. In the early years following independence, the country exhibited promising developments. However, as the years progressed, a series of factors emerged that undermined these gains. Mismanagement of resources, corruption and the challenges brought about by SAPs mandated by international financial institutions played pivotal roles in precipitating economic decline. The repercussions of these policies, particularly their failure to deliver promised improvements, ignited social unrest as unemployment soared and poverty deepened.

The statistics clearly illustrate the deterioration of government effectiveness during this tumultuous period. The government effectiveness index, which dropped from 2.18 in 1996 to 1.74 in 2000, fell below the average for lower-middle-income African countries, highlighting declining governance standards. The controversial land reform program initiated in the early 2000s further exacerbated economic decline by disrupting the agricultural sector, which was a cornerstone of Zimbabwe’s economy. This mismanagement culminated in record-setting hyperinflation by the mid-2000s, pushing the economy into freefall and leading to significant unemployment and poverty.

Following a period marked by political violence and disputed elections, the establishment of a government of national unity (GNU) between ZANU-PF and the MDC from 2009 to 2013 brought a temporary pause in the political instability that had characterised prior years. The slight improvement in the government effectiveness index during this time—from 0.96 in 2010 to 1.25 in 2015—along with stabilisation bolstered by dollarisation and international aid, showcased that even limited political collaboration could produce positive outcomes. However, underlying governance challenges remained largely unaddressed, and President Mugabe’s authoritarian rule persisted, stifling meaningful reform.

The military coup in 2017 that ousted Mugabe culminated in the rise of President Emmerson Mnangagwa, initially signalling hope for reform. Yet, despite promises of transformation, the new administration faced significant hurdles in addressing the deep-rooted causes of the ongoing crises, including hyperinflation, rampant unemployment and currency instability. Furthermore, reports of human rights abuses, crackdowns on dissent and a lack of genuine democratic reforms have marred Mnangagwa's tenure.

By 2023, the government effectiveness index stagnated at 1.25, unchanged from 2015, and the Curreth Path suggests a bleak trajectory to 1.88 in 2043, ultimately falling short of the average government effectiveness of lower-middle-income African countries, which will rise from 1.85 in 2023 to 2.28 in 2043. This stagnation underscores the urgent necessity for Zimbabwe to undertake substantive reforms—both democratic and economic—to regain stability and efficacy.

Overall, Zimbabwe's path forward hinges on its ability to tackle long-standing economic issues, foster genuine improvements in governance, enhance international relations and cultivate an inclusive political environment. Only through addressing these pivotal aspects can Zimbabwe hope to carve out a sustainable future characterised by economic growth and greater government effectiveness.

Chart 28 presents security, capacity and governance index for the Current Path versus the Governance scenario, for 2023 and 2043.

In our modelling framework, governance is conceptualised across three dimensions—security, capacity, and inclusion—representing the traditional stages of state formation. Each governance dimension is scored on a scale from zero (poor) to one (excellent). The security dimension evaluates the likelihood of internal conflict and overall risk levels. The capacity dimension encompasses factors such as government revenue, corruption, regulatory quality, economic freedom, and government effectiveness. Finally, the inclusion dimension assesses the extent of democracy and gender empowerment.

In addition, the Governance scenario includes an expanded program of social transfers, reflecting the government's determined effort to reduce inequality and poverty.

Visit the theme on Governance for a full conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

The governance system in Zimbabwe has evolved significantly over time, encompassing several key phases, shaped by internal and external events influencing the country's legal and political systems. The changes are largely tied to political leadership, constitutional amendments and socio-economic challenges. In 2023, the country ranked 31st out of 54 African countries in overall governance, scoring 47.1 out of 100. Most category scores were below average, including security and rule of law (44.5), participation, rights and inclusion (43.5), and foundations for economic opportunity (48.7), except for one category, which stood at 51.7. These figures highlight that participation, rights and inclusion remain a significant challenge in Zimbabwe.

In the 1990s, Zimbabwe was still governed by the 1979 Lancaster House Constitution, which was put in place at the time of independence in 1980. The governance, particularly the rule of law during this time, was generally respected. Still, the political landscape began to shift due to the increasing dominance of the ruling ZANU-PF party and President Robert Mugabe’s growing authoritarianism. In the early 1990s, President Mugabe’s government initially pursued some legal reforms, especially in areas like land reform, but these were often seen as benefiting the elite and did not adequately address broader inequalities. Towards the end of the 1990s, there was increasing resistance to President Mugabe’s rule. The period saw a series of constitutional amendments that eroded certain checks and balances, most notably:

• The 1996 Constitutional Amendment allowed the president to appoint judges without parliamentary approval, giving the executive more control over the judiciary.
• The 1997 Amendment allowed for the seizure of land from white farmers, which was done without adequate legal process, setting the stage for further erosion of property rights.

The controversial land reform program of the early 2000s is one of the most significant events in Zimbabwe's legal history during this period. The government began forcibly evicting white farmers from their land, violating property rights and disregarding legal norms. This undermined both the rule of law and economic stability. The political environment deteriorated with increased state repression, particularly against opposition groups like the MDC. The government used legal mechanisms to harass political opponents and civil society groups, often with the acquiescence of the judiciary, which became more politicised. The 2000 constitutional amendment further entrenched President Mugabe’s power by altering the constitution to allow for land expropriation without compensation. It also sought to limit judicial independence. The Zimbabwean economy entered a period of severe decline, leading to hyperinflation and widespread poverty. The legal system struggled to function effectively amidst the economic collapse and rampant corruption.

After the violent 2008 elections, Mugabe’s ZANU-PF entered into a power-sharing agreement with the opposition MDC, the Global Political Agreement (GPA) of 2008. This agreement, under which the country had a transitional government, resulted in some legal reforms and greater respect for human rights but the underlying structures of authoritarianism remained intact. The new constitution, adopted in 2013, introduced several reforms aimed at strengthening the rule of law, including limiting presidential power, introducing protections for civil liberties and human rights, and establishing a more independent judiciary. Despite these legal reforms, the governance system continued to face challenges as President Mugabe's government remained deeply entrenched in corruption and repression. The judiciary was still viewed as politicised, and the legal system struggled to address widespread human rights abuses and land disputes.

The transition from President Mugabe to President Mnangagwa’s leadership in November 2017 raised hopes for governance reforms and the restoration of the rule of law. However, many of the same political elites retained power, and President Mnangagwa's administration has been criticised for continued repression and human rights abuses. While there was some legal reform, such as attempts to address economic challenges and land reform, the rule of law remained weak due to political interference, corruption and limitations on judicial independence. The government continued to use legal measures to suppress dissent, including arresting political opponents, restricting media freedoms and curbing public protests. Human rights organisations continued to report violations, and the rule of law remained fragile.

By 2023, Zimbabwe’s composite governance index stood at 0.49, with the Current Path indicating a gradual increase to 0.55 in 2043. This trend closely aligns with the average for lower-middle-income African countries, showing only minor differences.

The future of the governance system in Zimbabwe depends on several factors, including legal and constitutional reforms, political reforms, economic recovery and rule of law, and international influence. The 2013 constitution remains a framework for reform but its full implementation depends on political will. In the coming years, Zimbabwe may focus on strengthening the independence of the judiciary, addressing corruption and promoting legal reforms that respect human rights and property rights. A peaceful political transition could lead to establishing a more democratic legal framework. However, political instability or further authoritarianism could undermine any progress made. Restoring economic stability would likely require a greater respect for the rule of law, including protecting property rights and combating corruption. However, if Zimbabwe continues to face economic challenges, the legal system may remain vulnerable to exploitation. The role of international institutions, such as the African Union, the United Nations and bilateral donors, could also influence legal reforms in Zimbabwe. External pressure may encourage adherence to international legal standards, especially concerning human rights and governance.

In the Governance scenario, the composite governance index will rise to 0.62, compared to 0.55 on the Current Path, above the average for lower-middle-income African countries.

In a nutshell, the governance system in Zimbabwe from 1990 reflects the tension between political power and legal frameworks. While the country has seen significant legal changes, authoritarian governance, corruption and human rights violations have often undermined these. The future of the governance system will depend on genuine legal reforms, political stability and international support for democratic processes and human rights. The challenges faced in the past will likely continue to shape Zimbabwe’s legal landscape, but there is potential for change if the political system embraces the rule of law in its truest form.