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Contact at AFI team is Enoch Randy Aikins
This entry was last updated on 24 August 2022 using IFs v7.63.

In this entry, we first describe the Current Path forecast for Guinea as it is expected to unfold to 2043, the end of the third ten-year implementation plan of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 long-term vision for Africa. 

The Current Path forecast is divided into summaries on demographics, economics, poverty, health/WaSH and climate change/energy. A second section then presents a single positive scenario for potential improvements in stability, demographics, health/WaSH, agriculture, education, manufacturing/transfers, leapfrogging, free trade, financial flows, infrastructure, governance and the impact of various scenarios on carbon emissions. With the individual impact of these sectors and dimensions having been considered, a final section presents the impact of the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. 

We generally review the impact of each scenario and the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario on gross domestic product (GDP) per person and extreme poverty except for Health/WaSH that uses life expectancy and infant mortality. 

The information is presented graphically and supported by brief interpretive text. 

All US$ numbers are in 2017 values.

Summary

  • Current Path forecast
    • Guinea is a low-income country in Africa with a population of about 12.8 million people (in 2019). It is a coastal nation with the Atlantic Ocean on its western border. Life expectancy in Guinea is 62.1 years, and there is a high disease burden from both communicable and non-communicable diseases. Despite being an African nation with one of the greatest potentials for wealth, Guinea’s GDP per capita has suffered from the frequent political uprisings and interruptions to economic stability. The GDP per capita stood at US$2 486 in 2019, and 37.9% of the population (4.9 million people) live below the benchmark poverty line of US$1.90 for low-income countries. Jump to forecast: Current Path
    • In the Current Path forecast, Guinea increases its population from an estimated 12.8 million people in 2019 to 23.6 million people in 2043. The country witnesses marginal growth in urbanisation, such that by 2043, 60% of the population resides in urban areas while 40% live in rural areas. Jump to Demographics: Current Path
    • Guinea is expected to experience significant growth in GDP, reaching US$48.7 billion in 2043 as well as an increase in GDP per capita to US$4 278 in 2043. The country reduces its level of informality, with a decrease in the size of the informal sector’s contribution to GDP, from 32.2% in 2019 to 27.8% in 2043. Guinea continues to rely heavily on the service sector for job creation, with an increase in its contribution to GDP to US$22.2 billion (47.3% of GDP), while the contribution of agriculture to GDP falls drastically from 13.6% in 2019 to 4.6% by 2043. Jump to Economy: Current Path
    • Guinea continues to struggle with poverty rates of 3.8 million people (16.3% of the population) living below the poverty line of US$1.90 in 2043. Jump to Poverty: Current Path
    • The country sees a reduction in the share of gas to total energy production (from 90.9% to 76.2%) even as renewable energy types grow to constitute 16.7% of energy produced by 2043 and increases its carbon emissions to 6 million tons in 2043, from 1 million tons in 2019. Jump to Carbon emissions/Energy: Current Path
  • Sectoral scenarios
    • The Stability scenario improves Guinea’s score on the government security index to 0.98 in 2043 and significantly increases GDP per capita to US$4 643, reducing the proportion of people living below the poverty line to a mere 12.7% of the population. Jump to Stability scenario
    • In the Demographic scenario, Guinea reaches the demographic dividend by 2043, although this is a year later than the average low-income country in Africa. There is also potential to increase GDP per capita by an additional US$568 over the Current Path forecast. Jump to Demographic scenario
    • The Health/WaSH scenario increases life expectancy to 70.1 years and reduces infant mortality per 1 000 live births to 25.7 by 2043; however, the SDG target due by 2030 is still missed. Jump to Health/Wash scenario
    • In the Agriculture scenario, Guinea changes from being food import-dependent to a net exporter of agricultural products with a balance of 1.6% of total agricultural demand by 2043. This also reduces the proportion of poor people to 10.8% of the Guinean population. Jump to Agriculture scenario
    • The Education scenario results in a higher GDP per capita of US$4 488 by 2043, reducing the number of poor people in Guinea by 721 000. Jump to Education scenario
    • In the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario, government welfare transfers to households increase to US$2.6 billion in 2043. Jump to Manufacturing/Transfers scenario
    • The Leapfrogging scenario increases mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 people from 29.4 in 2019 to 154.4 in 2043 and also enables access to electricity to 80% of the population. Jump to Leapfrogging scenario
    • In the Free Trade scenario, there is an increase in the GDP per capita to US$4 696 by 2043 and a reduction in the proportion of poor people in Guinea to 10.4% of the population. Jump to Free Trade scenario
    • The Financial Flows scenario increases the contribution of FDI to Guinea’s economy to 4.3% in 2043. Jump to Financial Flow scenario
    • The percentage of the rural population living within 2 km of all-weather roads increases to 39.1% by 2043 in the Infrastructure scenario. Jump to Infrastructure scenario
    • The Governance scenario increases GDP per capita to US$4 428 in 2043. Jump to Governance scenario
    • While Guinea’s carbon emissions increase in all the scenarios, the Stability scenario has the greatest effect, resulting in emissions of 7 million tons of carbon in 2043. Jump to Impact of scenarios on carbon emissions
  • Combined Agenda 2063 scenario Jump to Combined Agenda 2063 scenario
    • In the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, Guinea sees an increase in GDP per capita to US$6 986 in 2043 and aggressive growth of the economy to US$99.5 billion in 2043, compared to projections of US$48.7 billion in the Current Path forecast. In the scenario, the number of people living below the poverty line is significantly reduced to 350 000 people (1.6% of population). Carbon emissions increase to 8.6 million tons by 2043.

All charts for Guinea

Chart 1: Political map of Guinea
Chart
Guinea: Current Path forecast

Guinea: Current Path forecast

This page provides an overview of the key characteristics of Guinea along its likely (or Current Path) development trajectory. The Current Path forecast from the International Futures forecasting (IFs) platform is a dynamic scenario that imitates the continuation of current policies and environmental conditions. The Current Path is therefore in congruence with historical patterns and produces a series of dynamic forecasts endogenised in relationships across crucial global systems. We use 2019 as a standard reference year and the forecasts generally extend to 2043 to coincide with the end of the third ten-year implementation plan of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 long-term development vision.

Guinea is one of 23 low-income countries in Africa. Located in West Africa, it is not to be confused with the other Guinea nations of Equatorial Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Papua New Guinea. Guinea is bordered by six different countries, namely Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Mali, Côte d'Ivoire, Sierra Leone and Liberia, and the Atlantic Ocean on the west. The country has been a member of a number of different international organisations like ECOWAS, the United Nations and the African Union, a 2021 coup d'état resulted in the suspension of its membership of ECOWAS.

In terms of land size, Guinea covers a total area of 245 857 km² and is divided into four geographic regions: Maritime Guinea on the low-lying Atlantic coast, the Fouta Djallon or Middle Guinea highlands, the Upper Guinea savanna region in the northeast, and the Guinée forestière region of tropical forests. Guinea is divided into eight administrative regions which are subdivided into 33 prefectures. The climate is tropical, with a dry harmattan season in the winter and a rainy season in the summer. Conakry is Guinea's capital and its largest city, with a population of over two million people. Nzérékoré, located in the Guinée forestière region in Southern Guinea, is the second largest city. The current estimated total population of Guinea is around 12.8 million people.

Guinea has abundant natural resources, including over 25 billion metric tons of bauxite — perhaps up to one-half of the world's reserves. Guinea also has diamonds, gold, iron ore, uranium, alumina and some oil deposits. The nation also boasts some agricultural produce. The agriculture sector of Guinea cultivates coffee beans, pineapples, peaches, nectarines, mangoes, oranges, bananas, potatoes, tomatoes, cucumbers, pepper, and many other types of produce. The sources of three of West Africa’s major rivers — the Gambia, the Niger and the Senegal — are in Guinea.

Chart 1: Political map of Guinea
Chart
Demographics: Current Path

Demographics: Current Path

Guinea is the eighth most populous country in West Africa and the 29th most populous in Africa. The estimated population of the country was 12.8 million in 2019, up from 6.4 million in 1990; an increase of 101.3% in population size over the past 29 years. On the Current Path, the population of Guinea is forecasted to increase to 23.6 million, representing an approximate increase of 84.2% within the 24-year period. The relatively slower increase in the population growth rate can be attributed to the adoption of improved birth control methods such as the use of contraceptives. Guinea has a large youthful population with a youth bulge of 52% and a median age of 17.9 years in 2019. The youth bulge, defined as the ratio of the population between the ages of 15 and 29 to the total adult population, remains above 40% in the Current Path forecast horizon. While this large youth bulge is potential for human capital formation, it also leads to the possibilities of youth unemployment problems especially among the young people teeming the urban centres. So far, graduate unemployment remains a problem in Guinea, with two-thirds of higher education graduates under the age of 30 in Conakry being unemployed.

In addition, 43% of the population is below the age of 15 years and 29.6% is under the age of 30 years. The relatively large cohort of children under the age of 15 constrains the materialisation of the demographic dividend. With the expected decline in the fertility rate from 4.7 births per woman in 2019 to 3.3 births in 2043, the proportion of people below the age of 15 years falls to 35.2% over the next 24 years. This signals the likelihood of a more adult population, increasing the share of people under the age of 64 years from 24.2% in 2019 to 33.6% in 2043, as well as raising the median age of Guineans to 22.3. The average life expectancy in Guinea was 62.1 years in 2019 but is estimated to increase to 69.3 years in 2043. The relatively low life expectancy is mainly due to a high disease burden emanating from communicable and non-communicable diseases. Therefore, with an expected decline in communicable diseases over the period, life expectancy is also projected to increase within the same period.

In 1990, the majority of the Guinean population (over 72% of the population) resided in rural areas,. However, over the past 29 years, the proportion of people residing in rural areas marginally declined by 7.8 percentage points from its 1990 estimate to 64.2% in 2019, suggesting an increase in the urban population. Most rural dwellers migrate to the capital city Conakry in search of employment opportunities and greener pastures. It is also important to note the seasonal dynamics of the pattern of internal migration in the country due to the vital role of the agriculture sector to the Guinean economy. Some rural migrants periodically return to the rural areas during the planting season to help their relatives with agriculture. In the Current Path forecast, it is projected that the decline in the rural population continues such that by 2043, about 60% of the Guinean population will live in urban areas. Notwithstanding, the country has a relatively low rate of urbanisation compared to other low-income countries in Africa.

Guinea is the 29th most densely populated country in Africa and 12th densely populated country in West Africa. The population density of Guinea is estimated to be about 0.52 people per hectare, which is higher than the average of 0.45 for Africa but lower than the average of 0.65 for West Africa. The most densely populated cities are the administrative centres in the seven administrative regions. The most populous region, Kanka in the east of the country, borders Mali, Côte d'Ivoire, and the Faranah and Nzérékoré regions. It had a population of 6.2 million inhabitants in 2021, and it seems to have the most densely populated prefectures of Siguiri and Kanka. In the Kindia region, Conakry, the capital city, and Kindia are the prefectures with largest population densities. Notably, there are many Sierra Leoneans residing in these two cities given the region's proximity to Sierra Leone. The cities of Labe and Mamou are the administrative centres of the Labe and Mamou regions respectively and have high density populations. In the Boke region along the border of Guinea-Bissau, the port city of Kamsar, from where bauxite is exported, is the most densely populated in the region as it attracts workers in the bauxite supply chain. The southern city of Nzérékoré on the Côte d'Ivoire border is perhaps the most sparsely populated region.

Chart 4: Population density map for 2019
Chart
Economics: Current Path

Economics: Current Path

The Guinean economy is primarily based on the mining and agriculture sectors. Since 1985, the country has made efforts to implement policies that liberalise the economy to allow private sector participation. The IMF and the World Bank were actively involved in restoring the Guinean economy with various economic reform packages. These reforms led to notable economic growth, with a 5% growth rate over the period. In 2002, the IMF suspended Guinea's Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for the government’s inability to meet its deliverables under the programme. This forced the country to finance its own policies by resorting to the central bank which eventually proved costly for the country. However, in 2004, the country returned to the PRGF with the IMF with an agenda of reform. The GDP of Guinea increased by nearly US$8.5 billion, from US$3.5 billion in 1990 to US$12 billion in 2019 — an increase of 242.9% over the 29-year period. By 2043, Guinea’s GDP is estimated to almost quadruple to US$48.7 billion from the current figure.

Although many of the charts in the sectoral scenarios also include GDP per capita, this overview is an essential point of departure for interpreting the general economic outlook of Guinea.

The GDP per capita has seen a steady increase over time, despite the country’s rapid population growth. The GDP per capita increased by 69.8% from US$1 464 in 1990 to US$2 486 in 2019. The marginal increase in GDP per capita reflects the relatively high GDP growth compared to population size over the period. With an expected increase in GDP and decline in fertility rates, it is projected that GDP per capita will rise further over the next 22 years, such that by 2043, the GDP per capita will increase to US$4 278. Throughout the period under consideration, Guinea’s GDP per capita was higher than the average for low-income countries in Africa. This suggests that Guinea either has a lower population growth rate or higher economic growth rate compared to the average low-income country in Africa.

The size of the informal sector in Guinea was equivalent to 32.2% of GDP in 2019 — higher than the average of 30.1% for low-income countries in Africa. This is expected to decline to 27.8% by 2043, constituting a 4.4 percentage-point decrease over the 24-year period. In 2019, the total number of people employed by the informal economy constituted 60.7% of the total labour force, though this is expected to marginally decline to 53.8% in 2043. It is therefore not surprising that the level of informality also marginally declines within the same period. A significant proportion of informal workers are employed in the sectors of agriculture, livestock, fishing, handicrafts, trade and local industry. Throughout the period under consideration, the size of the informal sector in Guinea is higher than the average for low-income African countries, suggesting that Guinea has performed relatively poorer in formalising its economy compared to other African countries within its income group.

The IFs platform uses data from the Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) to classify economic activity into six sectors: agriculture, energy, materials (including mining), manufactures, services and information and communications technology (ICT). Most other sources use a threefold distinction between only agriculture, industry and services with the result that data may differ.

The three largest contributing sectors to GDP in Guinea are service, materials and manufacturing, respectively. In 2019, the service sector contribution to GDP was about US$5.8 billion (48.4% of GDP). This is expected to increase to US$22.2 billion by 2043 (47.3% of GDP). The materials sector is currently the second largest contributor to GDP with a share of 17% (about US$2 billion) in 2019, and the share of materials is projected to rise further to 26.3% by 2043 (US$12.8 billion). The manufacturing sector is the third most significant contributor to GDP, with a share of 15.8% (US$1.9 billion). It is expected that by 2043, the contribution of the manufacturing sector rises to US$8.3 billion (constituting 17% of GDP). It is significant to note that the share of the agriculture sector’s contribution to GDP is forecast to decline from 13.6% in 2019 to 4.6% in 2043. This is despite the fact that the agriculture sector employs about 61% of the total labour force in the country. The underperformance of the agriculture sector in the country is worrying for food security.

The data on agricultural production and demand in the IFs forecasting platform initialises from data provided on food balances by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). IFs contains data on numerous types of agriculture but aggregates its forecast into crops, meat and fish, presented in million metric tons. Chart 9 shows agricultural production and demand as a total of all three categories.

The average crop yield for 2019 was 2.9 metric tons per hectare. In 1990, Guinea’s demand for agricultural products outstripped domestic production by 0.36 million metric tons; this increased to 1.1 million metric tons in 2019, in spite of the agriculture sector accounting for about 61% of total employment in the country. Major challenges facing the agriculture sector in Guinea include a lack of access to land and credit, poor transportation networks to link farms to markets, and outmoded technology adopted in farming. Consequently, about 17.5% of the population faces the threat of food insecurity and 25.9% faces chronic malnutrition. Although the yield per hectare for crops is expected to increase from 2.9 metric tons per hectare in 2019 to 3.7 metric tons per hectare in 2043, the gap between demand and production widens. By 2043, demand outstrips domestic production by about 7.5 million metric tons, representing about 581% increase over the period. This raises concerns about food security in the country within the next 24 years.

Poverty: Current Path

Poverty: Current Path

There are numerous methodologies for and approaches to defining poverty. We measure income poverty and use GDP per capita as a proxy. In 2015, the World Bank adopted the measure of US$1.90 per person per day (in 2011 international prices), also used to measure progress towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 1 of eradicating extreme poverty. To account for extreme poverty in richer countries occurring at slightly higher levels of income than in poor countries, the World Bank introduced three additional poverty lines in 2017:

  • US$3.20 for lower middle-income countries 
  • US$5.50 for upper middle-income countries
  • US$22.70 for high-income countries.

As a low-income country, Guinea uses the US$1.90 per person per day benchmark. Despite having a relatively higher per capita income on the continent, the country is one of the poorest in Africa and the world. As of 2019, there were still over 4.9 million people (37.9% of the Guinean population) living on less than US$1.90 per day. This is expected to peak at 6.6 million people (44.6% of the population) in 2024. Thereafter, it assumes a downward trend so that by 2043, there will be 3.8 million people (16.3% of the population) living on less than US$1.90 per day. This means that the proportion of the extremely poor population reduces by 21.6 percentage points, and the absolute number of poor people in the country is one million people fewer than its level in 2019. Throughout the period under consideration, the proportion of poor people in Guinea is lower than the average for low-income countries in Africa, and by 2043 the extreme poverty rate in Guinea is 8.9 percentage points below the projected average for low-income countries in Africa. There are large disparities between rural and urban centres in terms of poverty levels, with a higher proportion of the poor population residing in the rural areas. The provision of services such as education and healthcare is also more concentrated in the urban areas compared to the rural areas. However, a number of other factors have influenced the high rates of poverty in Guinea. The large influx of migrants from Liberia and Sierra Leone has increased poverty levels in the country, as has the Ebola pandemic which affected almost a million Guineans.

Carbon Emissions/Energy: Current Path

Carbon Emissions/Energy: Current Path

The IFs platform forecasts six types of energy, namely oil, gas, coal, hydro, nuclear and other renewables. To allow comparisons between different types of energy, the data is converted into billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE). The energy contained in a barrel of oil is approximately 5.8 million British thermal units (MBTUs) or 1 700 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy.

The dominant energy produced in Guinea is gas. In 2019, the total production of gas amounted to 11 million BOE, representing 90.9% of total energy production in the country. Although the total production of gas is projected to increase to 22 million BOE, its share in total energy production declines to 76.2% in 2043. Hydro production constitutes 8.3%, representing 1 million BOE in 2019. Just like gas production, the total production of hydro power is estimated to double in 2043 although its share in total energy production marginally declines to 6.6%. Reliable rainfall, abundant sunshine and natural topography make the country conducive to renewable energy production. Therefore, from 2025, it is expected that Guinea will begin producing other renewable energies such as solar and wind energies, which constitute 16.7% of total energy production, amounting to 2 million BOE in 2043.

Carbon is released in many ways, but the three most important contributors to greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4). Since each has a different molecular weight, IFs uses carbon. Many other sites and calculations use CO2 equivalent.

Guinea is one of the countries in Africa with significantly low levels of carbon emissions. Regardless, carbon emissions have increased steadily from nearly zero carbon in 1990 to 1 million tons of carbon in 2019. On the Current Path, carbon emissions increase to 6 million tons by 2043, representing a 600% increase over the period. About 47% of carbon emissions in Guinea emanate from land-use change and forestry. This is followed by agriculture (11.3%), energy (2.9%) and waste (1.6%). Although Guinea emits relatively low levels of carbon, the country has pledged to undertake measures to reduce its carbon emissions.

Stability scenario

Stability scenario

The Stability scenario represents reasonable but ambitious reductions in risk of regime instability and lower levels of internal conflict. Stability is generally a prerequisite for other aspects of development and this would encourage inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and improve business confidence. Better governance through the accountability that follows substantive democracy is modelled separately.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

The Stability scenario generally signifies increased political stability, reduced internal conflict, high FDI inflows, improved accountable governance and low levels of corruption in the country. Guinea has had some political stability, although there have been several military interventions in the country. After the nation’s independence from France, President Ahmed Sékou Touré ruled the country as a one-party state until his death in 1984 when there was a military takeover. The military group led by Lansana Conté presided over reforms such as the drafting of a new constitution in 1991 and the legalisation of political parties in 1992. This led to a democratic election in which President Conté was elected in 1993. The 2001 national referendum amended the constitution to extend the presidential term from five to ten years and removed term limits. This enabled President Conté to rule until his death in 2008, after which there was another military takeover until 2010 when the country returned to constitutional rule with the election of Alpha Condé. He also ruled the country until a military coup in September 2021 after he had amended the constitution to enable him to contest in the elections for a third term and had subsequently won, amidst allegations of fraud. In 2019, Guinea's score on the governance security index was 0.70, which was higher than the average of 0.64 for low-income countries in Africa. In the Stability scenario, this score is projected to rise from 0.70 to 0.85 in 2043, which is 0.09 points above the Current Path forecast of 0.76 in the same year. This is also 0.14 higher than the average for low-income countries in Africa.

Regime stability and a peaceful environment inspire investor confidence and attract FDI into the country with a positive effect on economic growth. In 2019, the GDP per capita for Guinea was US$2 486, which is US$826 more than the average for low-income countries in Africa. In the Stability scenario, the GDP per capita increases to US$4 643 by 2043, US$365 more than the Current Path forecast and US$668 above the average for low-income countries in Africa.

Being a low-income country, Guinea uses the global poverty benchmark of US$1.90 per day. In 2019, the number of people living on less than US$1.90 was around 4.8 million, equivalent to about 37.9% of the population. The Stability scenario reduces the portion of people living below the poverty line to 12.7% by 2043, which is 3.6 percentage points below the Current Path forecast and 10.5 percentage points below the average for low-income countries in Africa. Also in the Stability scenario, the number of poor people declines to three million in 2043. This means that the materialisation of the Stability scenario could lead to 900 000 fewer poor people than the Current Path in 2043.

Demographic scenario

Demographic scenario

This section presents the impact of a Demographic scenario that aims to hasten and increase the demographic dividend through reasonable but ambitious reductions in the communicable-disease burden for children under five, the maternal mortality ratio and increased access to modern contraception. 

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Demographers typically differentiate between a first, second and even a third demographic dividend. We focus here on the contribution of the size of the labour force (between 15 and 64 years of age) relative to dependants (children and the elderly) as part of the first dividend. A window of opportunity opens when the ratio of the working-age population to dependants is equal to or surpasses 1.7.

In 2019, the ratio of working-age persons to dependants was 1.17, meaning that there were about 1.2 working-age persons for each dependant in the country. This is slightly above the average of 1.16 for low-income countries in Africa. Generally, the demographic dividend materialises when the country reaches a minimum ratio of 1.7 working-age persons for each dependant. While the country will not reach its demographic dividend by 2043 in the Current Path forecast, in the Demographic scenario, Guinea is expected to reach this minimum ratio by 2043. This is a year later than the average for low-income countries in Africa. The materialisation of the demographic dividend in the Demographic scenario can be explained by increased access to modern contraceptives which leads to a decline in fertility rates. In the Demographic scenario, fertility rates decline to 2.7 births per woman in 2043 compared to 3.3 births per woman in the Current Path forecast within the same period.

The infant mortality rate is the number of infant deaths per 1 000 live births and is an important marker of the overall quality of the health system in a country.

The infant mortality rate in Guinea in 2019 was 56.7 deaths per 1 000 live births, meaning that for every 1 000 infants born, about 57 died. This figure is higher than the average of 48.5 for low-income countries in Africa. By 2043, the Demographic scenario leads to a decline in infant mortality to 22.7 deaths per 1 000 live births, which is seven deaths per 1 000 live births lower than the Current Path forecast and 1.5 higher than the average for low-income countries in Africa. In the Current Path, this target will not be achieved in the forecast period.

In 2019, the GDP per capita for Guinea was US$2 486, which was US$826 higher than the average for low-income African countries. By 2043, in the Demographic scenario, the GDP per capita increases to US$4 846, which is US$568 more than the projected US$4 278 on the Current Path in the same year. It is also significantly above the US$3 930 average for low-income countries in Africa. The additional increase in the GDP per capita as a result of the Demographic scenario can partly be attributed to the reduction in population growth as a result of the decline in fertility rates emanating from improved access to contraceptives. It can also be attributed to economic growth arising from the materialisation of the demographic dividend.

As noted earlier, the number of people in Guinea living below the poverty line of US$1.90 per day in 2019 was 4.9 million. Based on the Demographic scenario, this number steadily rises to 6.6 million in 2024 after which it declines to 3.4 million in 2043, which is 460 000 fewer people than the Current Path forecast. Similarly, the proportion of the poor population can be reduced to 14.8% in the Demographic scenario, which is about 1.5 percentage points lower than the Current Path forecast and 10.4 percentage points lower than the average for low-income countries in Africa in 2043. The decline in both the number and portion of poor people based on the Demographic scenario reflects the decline in population size as a result of the use of modern contraceptives that reduces fertility rates.

Health/WaSH scenario

Health/WaSH scenario

This section presents reasonable but ambitious improvements in the Health/WaSH scenario, which include reductions in the mortality rate associated with both communicable diseases (e.g. AIDS, diarrhoea, malaria and respiratory infections) and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) (e.g. diabetes), as well as improvements in access to safe water and better sanitation. The acronym WaSH stands for water, sanitation and hygiene.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

An increase in life expectancy can be the result of a reduction in mortality caused by communicable and non-communicable diseases. It can also be achieved through improved sanitation and access to safe water. The life expectancy at birth for the average Guinean was 62.1 years in 2019, which was below the average of 63.8 for low-income countries in Africa. On average, females have a higher life expectancy at birth (63.1 years) than males (61 years). Based on the Health/WaSH scenario, life expectancy is estimated to increase to about 70.1 by 2043, which is above the Current Path forecast of 69.3 but below the average of 71.4 for low-income African countries. This increased life expectancy in the country can be attributed to the expected improvement in access to safe water (for nearly 100% of the population) and sanitation, as well as a reduction in mortality from communicable diseases. However, deaths from non-communicable diseases continue to be a problem. Females continue to have a higher life expectancy than males throughout the period.

In Guinea, the infant mortality rate per 1 000 live births in 2019 was 56.7, which is much higher than the SDG target of 25. Although the Health/WaSH scenario reduces infant mortality more quickly than the Current Path forecast, the country still misses the SDG target for 2030 by about 15 deaths per 1 000 live births. The Current Path forecast for 2030 misses the SDG target by 17.9 deaths. In both the Health/WaSH scenario and in the Current Path forecast, Guinea will not achieve the SDG target even by 2043, at which time infant mortality per 1 000 live births in the country will be 25.7 in the Health/WaSH scenario and 29.7 in the Current Path forecast.

Agriculture scenario

Agriculture scenario

The Agriculture scenario represents reasonable but ambitious increases in yields per hectare (reflecting better management and seed and fertiliser technology), increased land under irrigation and reduced loss and waste. Where appropriate, it includes an increase in calorie consumption, reflecting the prioritisation of food self-sufficiency above food exports as a desirable policy objective.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

The data on yield per hectare (in metric tons) is for crops but does not distinguish between different categories of crops.

In 2019, the average yield per hectare for crops was 2.9 metric tons per hectare, which was above the average of 2.7 metric tons per hectare for low-income countries in Africa. In the Current Path forecast, it is projected to increase to 3.7 metric tons per hectare by 2043. In the Agriculture scenario, however, the average yield will be 5.8 metric tons per hectare. This means that if the country is able to adopt modern methods of farming including the use of fertiliser and improved seeds, there will be a resulting increase of an extra 2.1 metric tons per hectare compared to the Current Path forecast in 2043. However, this is less than the average of 5.9 for low-income countries in Africa.

In 2019, Guinea’s net agricultural import was 10.7% of agricultural demand in the country, which was above the average for low-income countries in Africa. Rice is the largest imported food item in Guinea and accounted for about 40% of all food imports into the country in 2020, followed by flour and wheat. Although there is local production of these items, they are unable to meet local demand given that these food items are staples of the Guinean diet. Occasionally, the government takes measures to protect domestic production as was done in 2011 and 2016. [1International Trade Administration, Guinea country commercial guide, Agricultural sector] Guinea has the potential to export food items such as bananas, pineapples, potatoes and mangoes, among others, if agricultural production is mechanised. The Current Path forecast is that import dependence grows to 32.3% of total demand. The situation is reversed in the Agriculture scenario such that by 2043, the country will be a net exporter of agricultural products, with a balance of 1.6% of total agricultural demand. This balance will be slightly higher than the average for low-income countries.

The Agriculture scenario is expected to lead to an increase in the GDP per capita over the years: GDP per capita as a result of the Agriculture scenario increases from US$2 486 in 2019 to US$4 482 in 2043, constituting an 80.3% increase over the period. These estimates are greater than the projections in the Current Path forecast so that by 2043, the additional gains from the GDP per capita as a result of the Agriculture scenario will be US$204. In this scenario, Guinea’s GDP per capita will still remain above the average for low-income countries in Africa.

Implementing good agricultural policies that result in increased yield per hectare and reduced waste appear to have a significant impact on poverty reduction in the country. In the Current Path forecast, 3.8 million people (16.3% of the population) are projected to be extremely poor by 2043. However, in the Agriculture scenario, the number of people living below the poverty line of US$1.90 will be reduced to 2.4 million, constituting about 10% of the population. This means that 1.4 million additional Guineans can be lifted out of extreme poverty by focusing primarily on agricultural growth. This is expected since the majority of the poor population in Guinea is employed within the agricultural sector. Throughout the period, in the Agriculture scenario, the proportion of people living in extreme poverty in Guinea will be lower than the average for low-income countries in Africa, although the gap closes. By 2043, the poverty rate in Guinea will be 15.2 percentage points below the average for low-income countries in Africa.

Education scenario

Education scenario

The Education scenario represents reasonable but ambitious improved intake, transition and graduation rates from primary to tertiary levels and better quality of education. It also models substantive progress towards gender parity at all levels, additional vocational training at secondary school level and increases in the share of science and engineering graduates.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

According to the 2020 Guinean constitution, education is free and compulsory until age 16. However, inequality in the distribution of education facilities in the country serves as a barrier to most rural people in accessing quality education. In addition, the lack of teaching and learning materials, poor learning outcomes, inadequately trained teachers and low primary completion rates hinder quality education. In 2019, Guinea’s mean years of education was 5.3, which was above the average of 4.4 for low-income countries on the continent. In terms of gender, the mean years of education for males is 6.4, which is 2 years more than females’ average of 4.4. This means that on average, men are more likely to attain higher education than women. The gap in favour of men for mean years of education in Guinea is higher than the average of 1.3 years for low-income countries in Africa. By 2043, in the Education scenario, the mean years of education will rise to 7.3 years — 0.6 years more than the Current Path estimates and 0.7 years more than the average for low-income countries in Africa. Also, in the Education scenario, the gender gap regarding mean years of education will close by 0.8 years by 2043, while the gender gap closes by 0.5 years for the average low-income countries in Africa within the same period.

The average test score for primary learners in Guinea for 2019 was 26.4%, which was lower than the 27.7% for the average low-income country in Africa, signifying a relatively weaker performance in this regard. The Education scenario increases the average test score for primary learners to 34.1%, compared to the Current Path forecast of 28.8%. However, the Education scenario for 2043 results in test scores 1.5 percentage points less than the continental average for low-income countries.

In 2019, the average secondary learner test score for Guinea was 37%, which was above the average of 35.8% for low-income African countries. This suggests that Guinea performs relatively better at the secondary level than at the primary level. By 2043, the average test score for secondary learners is set to rise to 45.1%, which is slightly above the average of 44.8% for low-income countries in Africa and 8.1 percentage points more than the Current Path estimates.

By 2043, the increase in the GDP per capita as a result of the Education scenario is estimated to be US$210 more than the projected US$4 278 in the Current Path forecast, suggesting that investing in education is a powerful means of improving productivity, growth and the income prospects of poor people. This will also be US$564 more than the average of US$3 923 for low-income countries in Africa.

By 2043, in the Education scenario, there will be 3.1 million poor people (13.3% of the population). This means that the Education scenario contributes to reducing the number of poor people by 721 000 people in 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast. The proportion of poor people based on the Education scenario in Guinea will be 11.9 percentage points lower than the average for low-income countries in Africa.

Manufacturing/transfers scenario

Manufacturing/transfers scenario

The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario represents reasonable but ambitious manufacturing growth through greater investment in the economy, investments in research and development, and promotion of the export of manufactured goods. It is accompanied by an increase in welfare transfers (social grants) to moderate the initial increases in inequality that are typically associated with a manufacturing transition. To this end, the scenario improves tax administration and increases government revenues.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Chart 30 should be read with Chart 8 that presents a stacked area graph on the contribution to GDP and size, in billion US$, of the Current Path economy for each of the sectors.

Based on the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario, the service sector will be the largest contributor to GDP with an absolute contribution of US$2.9 billion more by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast. This corresponds to a rate of contribution to GDP of a 1.2 percentage-point difference in 2043. The materials sector, which is the second largest contributor, is also projected to contribute an additional US$0.96 billion to GDP by 2043, although its rate of contribution declines significantly from 0.44% in 2038 to -0.56% difference to GDP based on the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario in 2043. The third-largest contributor to GDP in Guinea is the manufacturing sector, with a contribution of US$0.59 billion — a rate of contribution of -0.42 percentage points to GDP based on the differences in the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario and the Current Path forecast. It is significant to note that by 2043, agriculture contributes the least to GDP with a projected contribution of US$0.1 billion based on the difference between the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario and the Current Path forecast. This is in spite of the fact that the sector employs more than half of the population. While a decline in the share of agricultural contribution to GDP can be attributed to the structural transformation of the economy, its underperformance is a concern for food security in the country.

The Guinean government’s welfare transfer to households is significantly low. In 2019, total welfare transfer to households was US$0.20 billion (about 1.7% of GDP), which is below the average of 2.2% of GDP for low-income countries in Africa. This is projected to increase to US$2.6 billion by 2043 in the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario, constituting almost 4.8% of GDP — far more than the US$1.6 billion estimated for 2043 based on the Current Path. This suggests that the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario can lead to an improvement in government welfare transfers by an additional US$1 billion compared to the Current Path in 2043.

However, the gap between Guinea and its income group peers in terms of government welfare transfer as a per cent of GDP is expected to increase from 0.5 percentage points in 2019 to 2.3 percentage points in 2043 in the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario.

By 2043, it is estimated that Guinea’s GDP per capita rises to US$4 559, which is US$281 more than in the Current Path forecast. The GDP per capita for Guinea by 2043 in the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario will also be above the average of US$4 005 for low-income countries in Africa.

Between 2030 and 2038, the Current Path forecast leads to a quicker reduction in the absolute number of poor people in Guinea compared to the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario. However, from 2039, the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario overtakes the Current Path forecast such that by 2043, an estimated one million people (about 4.4% of the population) can be lifted above the poverty line of US$1.90 as a result of the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario. This means that if the country embarks on policies such as investment in the economy, research and development, as well as export promotion, the absolute number of poor people will be one million fewer than on the Current Path in 2043. The proportion of poor people in Guinea based on the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario in 2043 will be about 13.3 percentage points below the average for low-income countries in Africa.

Leapfrogging scenario

Leapfrogging scenario

The Leapfrogging scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious adoption of and investment in renewable energy technologies, resulting in better access to electricity in urban and rural areas. The scenario includes accelerated access to mobile and fixed broadband and the adoption of modern technology that improves government efficiency and allows for the more rapid formalisation of the informal sector.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Fixed broadband includes cable modem Internet connections, DSL Internet connections of at least 256 KB/s, fibre and other fixed broadband technology connections (such as satellite broadband Internet, ethernet local area networks, fixed-wireless access, wireless local area networks, WiMAX, etc.).

In 2019, the total number of fixed broadband subscriptions was 2.8 per 100 people, which was slightly above the average for low-income countries in Africa. In the Current Path forecast, fixed broadband subscriptions are expected to rise to 23.2 per 100 people. The Leapfrogging scenario leads to a greater increase in fixed broadband subscriptions compared to the Current Path forecast, with a difference of 22.5 subscriptions per 100 people by 2043. This means that the additional fixed broadband subscriptions as a result of the Leapfrogging scenario is 22.5 subscriptions per 100 people in 2043. Across the forecast horizon, fixed broadband subscriptions in Guinea are expected to be lower than the average for low-income African countries.

Mobile broadband refers to wireless Internet access delivered through cellular towers to computers and other digital devices.

Guinea had mobile broadband subscriptions of 29.4 per 100 people in 2019 — more than the average of 22.9 for low-income countries on the continent. Although between 2024 and 2038 mobile broadband subscriptions in the Leapfrogging scenario rise above the Current Path, in the long term, the Leapfrogging scenario and the Current Path forecast converge. By 2043, mobile broadband subscriptions in the Current Path forecast and the Leapfrogging scenario increase to 154.4 per 100 people, above the average of 137.4 for Africa’s low-income countries.

In 2019, 4.8 million Guineans (37.5% of the total population) had access to electricity. This is above the average of 32.2% for low-income countries in Africa. There exists rural–urban disparity in terms of access to electricity in the country. About 70.4% of people in urban centres had access to electricity, compared to the paltry 19.3% of those in the rural areas in 2019. In the Leapfrogging scenario, it is projected that by 2043 about 80% of Guineans (constituting 18.9 million people) will have access to electricity. This is above the average for low-income countries in Africa. It is also higher than the 64.3% (15.1 million people) projected in the Current Path forecast, signifying that the Leapfrogging scenario provides access to electricity to an additional 3.8 million people. By 2043, 87.2% and 93.7% of urban dwellers in Guinea will have access to electricity, in the Current Path forecast and the Leapfrogging scenario, respectively. In the case of rural dwellers, 71.6% and 49.2% will have access to electricity by 2043 based on the Leapfrogging scenario and the Current Path forecast, respectively. This means that the gap between rural and urban residents in terms of access to electricity closes quicker in the Leapfrogging scenario.

Guinea’s GDP per capita is projected to increase from US$2 486 in 2019 to US$4 616 in 2043 in the Leapfrogging scenario — an increase of US$338 compared to the Current Path forecast in 2043. It is also higher than the average of US$4 130 for low-income countries in Africa.

In the Leapfrogging scenario, the number of poor people in 2043 is projected to be 3.1 million, representing 13.3% of the population. This projection is lower than the 3.8 million people estimated in the Current Path forecast in the same year, which suggests that the number of poor people in the Leapfrogging scenario is about 700 000 fewer than the Current Path forecast in 2043. The number of poor people projected in the Leapfrogging scenario is 11.9 percentage points lower than the average for low-income African countries.

Free Trade scenario

Free Trade scenario

The Free Trade scenario represents the impact of the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by 2034 through increases in exports, improved productivity and increased trade and economic freedom.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website. 

The trade balance is the difference between the value of a country's exports and its imports. A country that imports more goods and services than it exports in terms of value has a trade deficit, while a country that exports more goods and services than it imports has a trade surplus.

Guinea, like many African economies, is a net importer of goods and services. In 2019, Guinea’s trade deficit represented 12.2% of GDP. This large deficit is mainly due to the large import of rice, refined petroleum, packaged medicaments, delivery trucks and cars. Guinea begins to see an improvement in its trade balance in both the Current Path forecast and the Free Trade scenario, although the improvement is much quicker in the latter. This upward trend continues until it reaches a peak of a surplus of about 2.6% and 1.5% of GDP in 2025 in the Free Trade scenario and in Current Path forecast, respectively. However, these gains begin to decline, so that the trade balance will be deficit until it peaks with a balance of 17.2% in the Free Trade and 16.2% on the Current Path by 2035. Thereafter, the trade balance improves again so that by 2043, the projected trade deficit will be 7.1% of GDP in the Free Trade scenario, which is much higher than the projected 2.6% of GDP in the Current Path forecast. This suggests that the full implementation of AfCFTA will in the long term worsen the trade balance of Guinea due to the expected reduction in exports and increase in imports as a result of free trade. With the exception of the period between 2031 and 2038, Guinea’s trade deficit as a percentage of GDP is lower than the average for low-income African countries.

The GDP per capita for Guinea is estimated to increase to US$4 696 by 2043 in the Free Trade scenario, which is US$418 more than the projections of the Current Path in 2043. This means that if Guinea takes advantage of the AfCFTA to increase trade and productivity, it can achieve an extra US$418 increase in the GDP per capita compared to the Current Path forecast in 2043. It is US$441 more than the average GDP per capita of US$4 255 for low-income African countries in the Free Trade scenario.

By 2043, about 2.4 million people (representing 10.4% of the population) will be living below the poverty line of US$1.90 in the Free Trade scenario. This is 5.9 percentage points lower than the Current Path forecast, meaning that the Free Trade scenario has 1.4 million fewer poor people than the Current Path by 2043. The proportion of the poor people in the Free Trade scenario is 14.8 percentage points lower than the average for low-income countries in Africa. If Guinea takes advantage of the opportunities available in the continental free trade agreement, it increases productivity and increase export of domestically produced goods that have the poor at the lower end of production. The cumulative effect is that poverty reduces by 1.4 million people in 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast.

Financial Flows scenario

Financial Flows scenario

The Financial Flows scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious increase in worker remittances and aid flows to poor countries, and an increase in the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) and additional portfolio investment inflows to middle-income countries. We also reduced outward financial flows to emulate a reduction in illicit financial outflows.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Generally, the total foreign aid received by Guinea has been quite low. The total foreign aid received by Guinea in 2019 was 6.3% of GDP, which was below the average of 8.6% for low-income countries in Africa. This constitutes about US$580.68 million. Between 2008 and 2009, restrictions were placed on foreign aid to the country due to military control. The restrictions were lifted after the political transition and subsequent election in 2010. The Guinean government was suspended from international bodies and prevented from receiving aid in 2011 during an outbreak of violence in the country. The recent 2021 coup d’état has also led to the imposition of sanctions on the country by the international community amidst calls for a return to constitutional rule. These factors have contributed to the low levels of foreign aid received by the country. Foreign aid as a percentage of GDP declines such that by 2043, the total foreign aid received by the country is projected to be 3.4% of GDP in the Financial Flows scenario and 3.1% of GDP in the Current Path forecast. This suggests that in the Financial Flows scenario, foreign aid as a percentage of GDP is lower than the Current Path forecast in 2043. Further, these projections are still below the average for a low-income African country.

In the past, the country has been unable to attract a lot of FDI due to high levels of political and institutional corruption as well as the poor infrastructural network in the country. Also, weaknesses in the justice delivery system scares investors away. In 2016, the country launched a new website — Investment Promotion Agency of Guinea — to promote transparency and reduce bottlenecks in doing business. This was an attempt to attract FDI into the country. Guinea’s total FDI in 2019 amounted to 4.7% of GDP, which is slightly higher than the average of 4.3% for low-income African countries. By 2043, the total FDI to the country will be about 3.9% of GDP in the Current Path forecast. In the Financial Flows scenario, FDI will be 4.3% of GDP in 2043, which is below the average for low-income countries on the continent.

In 2019, the total value of remittances that Guinea received amounted to US$0.10 billion, which constituted about 0.9% of GDP. This is significantly lower than the average for low-income African countries. Both the absolute value of remittance and remittances as a percentage of GDP are projected to fall. In the Financial Flows scenario, remittance is projected to decline to US$0.08 billion, representing 0.15% of GDP. Remittances decline quicker in the Current Path forecast, so that by 2043, the total value of remittances in the country will be only US$0.04 billion, representing 0.08% of GDP.

More financial flows in a country means more public and private investment, which in turn have a rippling effect on income levels. Guinea’s GDP per capita is estimated to increase to US$4 346 by 2043 in the Financial Flows scenario. This represents an increase of US$68 over the Current Path forecast in the same year. The estimate of US$4 346 is also above the average for low-income countries in Africa, which is US$3 864 by 2043.

Trade openness will reduce poverty in the long term after initially increasing it due to the redistributive effects of trade. Most African countries export primary commodities and low-tech manufacturing products, and therefore a continental free trade agreement (AfCFTA) that reduces tariffs and non-tariff barriers across Africa will increase competition among countries in primary commodities and low-tech manufacturing exports. Countries with inefficient, high-cost manufacturing sectors might be displaced as the AfCFTA is implemented, thereby pushing up poverty rates. In the long term, as the economy adjusts and produces and exports its comparatively advantaged (lower relative cost) goods and services, poverty rates will decline.

Financing poverty reducing programmes and projects can be costly. If financial flows are used to promote pro-poor private and public investments, the number and proportion of poor people declines. Based on the Financial Flows scenario, the total number of people living below the poverty line of US$1.90 declines to 3.6 million in 2043, representing 15.4% of the total population. This estimate constitutes a reduction of about 200 000 people compared to the Current Path in the same year. It is also below the average of 25.2% of the total population for low-income countries in Africa.

Infrastructure scenario

Infrastructure scenario

The Infrastructure scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious increase in infrastructure spending across Africa, focusing on basic infrastructure (roads, water, sanitation, electricity access and ICT) in low-income countries and increasing emphasis on advanced infrastructure (such as ports, airports, railway and electricity generation) in higher-income countries.

Note that health and sanitation infrastructure is included as part of the Health/WaSH scenario and that ICT infrastructure and more rapid uptake of renewables are part of the Leapfrogging scenario. The interventions there push directly on outcomes, whereas those modelled in this scenario increase infrastructure spending, indirectly boosting other forms of infrastructure, including that supporting health, sanitation and ICT. 

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

In Guinea, 4.8 million people (37.5% of the population) have access to electricity, which is above the average for low-income countries in Africa, increasing to 17.5 million in 2043 (74.2% of the population) in the Infrastructure scenario. This increase exceeds the projected value of 15.1 million people (64.3% of the population) in the Current Path forecast. In terms the of rural–urban dichotomy, by 2043, it is projected that 87.2% and 90.2% of urban dwellers will have access to electricity in the Current Path forecast and the Infrastructure scenario, respectively. However, only 63.8% and 49.2% of rural dwellers in the Infrastructure scenario and the Current Path forecast respectively will have access to electricity in 2043, indicating a disparity in access to electricity between urban and rural dwellers in both the Current Path forecast and the Infrastructure scenario.

Indicator 9.1.1 in the Sustainable Development Goals refers to the proportion of the rural population who live within 2 km of an all-season road and is captured in the Rural Access Index.

Accessibility to rural areas is important in spurring the socio-economic development of a country and improving the living standards of rural dwellers. It enables rural dwellers to enjoy amenities from nearby urban areas while allowing urban centres to benefit more easily from the agricultural products supplied by rural areas. In 2019, only 27.2% of all rural dwellers in Guinea resided within 2 km from all-weather roads, which was lower than the average of 43% for low-income African countries. In the Infrastructure scenario, it is expected to rise to 39.1% by 2043, higher than 37.1% in the Current Path forecast but much lower than the average of 53.5% for low-income countries in Africa.

Guinea’s GDP per capita is estimated to rise to US$4 613 by 2043 in the Infrastructure scenario. This is US$335 more than the projection in the Current Path forecast in the same year and above the average of US$3 949 for low-income countries in Africa.

By 2043, the proportion of the poor population is expected to decline from 37.9% in 2019 to 13% in 2043 in the Infrastructure scenario. This corresponds to 3.1 million poor people in 2043 living below the poverty line. Comparing this with the projections in the Current Path suggests that there will be 770 000 fewer poor people in the Infrastructure scenario than in the Current Path forecast for the same year. This will also be lower than the estimated average of 25.2% for low-income countries in Africa.

Governance scenario

Governance scenario

The Governance scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious improvement in accountability and reduces corruption, and hence improves the quality of service delivery by government.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

As defined by the World Bank, government effectiveness ‘captures perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government’s commitment to such policies’.

Chart 51 presents the impact of the interventions in the Governance scenario on government effectiveness.

In 2019, Guinea’s score in government effectiveness was 1.47, which was above the average of 1.37 for low-income countries in Africa. In both the Current Path forecast and the Governance scenario, government effectiveness is estimated to increase over the period, although the increase in the Governance scenario is higher than the increase in the Current Path forecast. Government effectiveness in the Governance scenario by 2043 is 2.15, which is 0.11 more than in the Current

Path forecast. Guinea’s score for 2043 will be higher compared to the average of low-income countries in Africa.

In the Governance scenario, Guinea’s GDP per capita is projected to increase to US$4428 in 2043, which is US$150 more than the estimates in the Current Path forecast and higher than the average for low-income countries on the continent in the same year. This suggests that good governance in the forms of reducing corruption, improving the quality of service delivery and accountability can lead to an additional US$150 in GDP per capita compared with the Current Path in 2043.

The proportion of people living below the poverty line of US$1.90 declines to 14.7% in 2043 in the Governance scenario, which is lower than the 25.2% average for low-income African countries. It also corresponds to about 370 000 people fewer than the 3.8 million poor people projected in the Current Path forecast for 2043.

Impact of scenarios on carbon emissions

Impact of scenarios on carbon emissions

This section presents projections for carbon emissions in the Current Path for Guinea and the 11 scenarios. Note that IFs uses carbon equivalents rather than CO2 equivalents.

The total amount of carbon emitted by Guinea in 2019 was 8.6 million tons. Guinea’s carbon emissions are projected to increase in all the scenarios so that by 2043 the intervention with the greatest impact on carbon emissions is the Free Trade scenario, which leads to Guinea’s carbon emissions being 6.8 million tons of carbon in 2043. This is followed by the Stability and Infrastructure scenarios, while the interventions with the least impact on carbon emissions are the Demographic and Financial Flows scenario, respectively.

Combined Agenda 2063 scenario

Combined Agenda 2063 scenario

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The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario consists of the combination of all 11 sectoral scenarios presented above, namely the Stability, Demographic, Health/WaSH, Agriculture, Education, Manufacturing/Transfers, Leapfrogging, Free Trade, Financial Flows, Infrastructure and Governance scenarios. The cumulative impact of better education, health, infrastructure, etc. means that countries get an additional benefit in the integrated IFs forecasting platform that we refer to as the synergistic effect. Chart 55 presents the contribution of each of these 12 components to GDP per capita in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario as a stacked area graph.

The synergistic effect of all the scenarios on GDP per capita is estimated to be about US$160.2 in 2043. The scenario with the greatest impact on the GDP per capita by 2043 is the Free Trade scenario, followed by the Stability scenario, while the scenarios with the least impact on the GDP per capita are Health/WaSH and Financial Flows. This suggests that in the long term, the Free Trade and Stability scenarios have the greatest potential to improve human and economic development in Guinea.

Whereas Chart 55 presents a stacked area graph on the contribution of each scenario to GDP per capita as well as the additional benefit or synergistic effect, Chart 56 presents only the GDP per capita in the Current Path forecast and the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario.

Guinea’s GDP per capita is estimated to increase to US$6 986 in 2043 in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. This is US$2 708 more than the projection based on the Current Path forecast for 2043. Guinea’s GDP per capita in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario will still be higher than the average for low-income countries in Africa in 2063.

In the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, the number of poor people will significantly decline such that by 2043, only 350 000 Guineans, representing 1.6% of the population, will be living below the poverty line. This means that, compared with the Current Path, an additional 2.6 million Guineans can be lifted out of extreme poverty in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. The absolute number of poor people for the average for low-income African countries by 2043 is 23.6 percentage points lower than that of Guinea.

See Chart 8 to view the Current Path forecast of the sectoral composition of the economy.

In the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, the biggest contributors to GDP in the long term are the service, materials and manufacturing sectors. By 2043, the service sector contributes an additional 7.7 percentage points (US$29.3 billion) to GDP. Although materials and manufacturing contribute US$8.2 billion and US$4.8 billion respectively, in terms of percentage points, their contribution corresponds to -4.2% and -3.3, respectively. Agriculture contributes -0.85 percentage points to GDP by 2043, which is equivalent to US$1.4 billion.

The estimated GDP (MER) for 2043 in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario in 2043 is US$95.5 billion, which is higher than the Current Path estimate of US$48.7 billion. This suggests that compared to the Current Path forecast, the size of the economy will more than double in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario by 2043.

The total amount of carbon emitted in 2019 was 1.1 million tons. In the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, the total carbon emitted is projected to rise to 8.6 million tons by 2043. This is higher than the estimates of 6.3 million tons in the Current Path forecast for 2043, meaning that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario leads to much higher levels of carbon emissions than the Current Path.

Endnotes

  1. International Trade Administration, Guinea country commercial guide, Agricultural sector

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Cite this research

Enoch Randy Aikins (2022) Guinea. Published online at futures.issafrica.org. Retrieved from https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/guinea/ [Online Resource] Updated 24 August 2022.