In this entry, we first describe the Current Path forecast for Comoros as it is expected to unfold to 2043, the end of the third ten-year implementation plan of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 long-term vision for Africa. The Current Path in the International Futures (IFs) forecasting model initialises from country-level data that is drawn from a range of data providers. We prioritise data from national sources.
The Current Path forecast is divided into summaries on demographics, economics, poverty, health/WaSH and climate change/energy. A second section then presents a single positive scenario for potential improvements in stability, demographics, health/WaSH, agriculture, education, manufacturing/transfers, leapfrogging, free trade, financial flows, infrastructure, governance and the impact of various scenarios on carbon emissions. With the individual impact of these sectors and dimensions having been considered, a final section presents the impact of the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario.
We generally review the impact of each scenario and the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario on gross domestic product (GDP) per person and extreme poverty except for Health/WaSH that uses life expectancy and infant mortality.
The information is presented graphically and supported by brief interpretive text.
All US$ numbers are in 2017 values.
- Current Path forecast
- Comoros is a member of the regional economic communities of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and is one of 23 lower middle-income countries in Africa according to the World Bank’s income classification. Jump to forecast: Current Path
- Comoros is a predominantly rural country with 71% of its population in 2019 living in rural agglomerations/clusters throughout the three islands. The country is expected to remain predominantly rural and by 2043 it is forecast that 67.1% of the population will still be living in rural spaces. This is in contrast to the urbanisation rate for lower middle-income Africa that is expected to be predominantly urban with an average urbanisation rate of 59% in 2043. Jump to Demographics: Current Path
- Comoros has a very small economy measuring only US$1.4 billion in 2019, the second smallest among African countries. In the Current Path forecast, it is expected that the economy will grow to US$4.5 billion by 2043, an increase of US$3.1 billion within the next 24 years. The country boasts great eco-tourisms potential but its turbulent political history and lack of connectivity between the three islands and limited transportation routes severely hamper its potential. Jump to Economics: Current Path
- Using the US$3.20 measure for lower middle-income countries, Comoros had 33.3% of its population (290 000 people) living below the poverty line in 2019. On the Current Path, poverty rates are forecast to decline to 14.1% in 2043, 24.2 percentage points below the projected average for lower middle-income Africa in the same year. Jump to Poverty: Current Path
- In 2019, Comoros’ energy production from coal stood at 1 million barrels of oil equivalent, 60% of total energy production. Gas and oil also contributed to the country’s energy mix making up the remaining 40% of the total energy production. If the geothermal potential of the country is realised, this dependency can be expected to decrease significantly by 2043. Jump to Carbon emissions/Energy: Current Path
- Sectoral Scenarios
- Comoros stands to gain substantially from the interventions proposed in the Stability scenario. In this scenario, the score on the governance security index will increase to 0.87 by 2043 compared to 0.79 in the Current Path forecast. Jump to Stability scenario
- In the Demographic scenario, a ratio of 1.7 working-age persons to dependants is expected in 2039 for Comoros. The Demographic scenario will likely aid Comoros in reaping the demographic dividend five years earlier than projected in the Current Path forecast. Jump to Demographic scenario
- The Health/WaSH scenario will have a positive impact on reducing infant deaths compared to the Current Path forecast, although only by a small margin. This scenario will lower the under-five mortality rate to 20 deaths per 1 000 live births by 2043, 0.2 deaths fewer compared to the Current Path forecast. Jump to Health/WaSH scenario
- Comoros’ agriculture sector is significantly underperforming. The Agriculture scenario will therefore have a positive impact on poverty reduction in the country by 2043. The scenario has a more immediate impact on reducing poverty and will reduce poverty by 2.5 percentage points compared to the Current Path forecast in 2043, lifting an additional 30 000 people out of poverty. Jump to Agriculture scenario
- Increased investment in education as proposed in the Education scenario will increase literacy rates to 92% by 2043. The Education scenario also has the potential to increase mean years of education by 2043 to 9 years compared to 8.7 in the Current Path forecast Jump to Education scenario
- The interventions proposed in the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario will have a positive impact on the GDP per capita of Comoros in 2043, increasing it by US$299 above the Current Path forecast. Jump to Manufacturing/Transfers scenario
- The Leapfrogging scenario has a positive impact on poverty reduction by 2043, lowering it by only 1.5 percentage points compared to the Current Path forecast. The interventions proposed in this scenario will lift an additional 20 000 people out of extreme poverty. Jump to Leapfrogging scenario
- By 2043, GDP per capita in Comoros is expected to increase to US$5 581 in the Free Trade scenario, compared to US$5 015 in the Current Path forecast — an increase of US$566. Jump to Free Trade scenario
- Comoros is a net receiver of remittances. In the Financial Flows scenario, remittances will amount to US$400 million, which equates to 9.6% of GDP. Jump to Financial Flows scenario
- Comoros is geographically isolated and has a low-quality road network. The three islands also differ substantially in regard to road connectivity and quality. The Infrastructure scenario will benefit rural accessibility, and by 2043 it is projected that 74% of the rural population will have access to an all-weather road. Jump to Infrastructure scenario
- By 2043, the GDP per capita in Comoros is expected to increase to US$5 104 in the improved Governance scenario, compared to US$5 015 in the Current Path forecast — an increase of US$89. Jump to Governance scenario
- On the Current Path, Comoros’ carbon emissions are projected to increase from 0.1 million tons in 2019 to 0.4 million tons by 2043. None of the various scenarios significantly increases carbon emissions above the Current Path forecast in the country by 2043. Jump to Impact of scenarios on carbon emissions
- Combined Agenda 2063 scenario
- The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario has the potential to raise GDP per capita in Comoros to US$7 868 by 2043, a significant increase of US$2 853 above the Current Path forecast for the same year. The scenario has the potential to reduce poverty in 2043 by 10.6 percentage points compared to the Current Path forecast, lifting an additional 140 000 people out of poverty, and will have a positive impact on the economy of Comoros as the GDP is forecast to grow to US$7.8 billion by 2043 in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, compared to US$4.5 billion in the Current Path forecast — an increase of 73% (US$3.3 billion). Jump to Combined Agenda 2063 scenario