Ghana

The eight sectoral scenarios as well as their relationship to the Current Path and the Combined scenario are explained in the About Page. Chart 10 summarises the approach.

Chart 11 presents the mortality distribution in the Current Path for 2023 and 2043.

Population dynamics and health outcomes are closely interconnected. Improvements in healthcare, nutrition, sanitation, and access to essential services can reduce mortality and morbidity, increase life expectancy, and influence fertility patterns. At the same time, population growth and changing demographic structures place additional pressure on healthcare systems and increase demand for basic services such as adequate nutrition, clean water, sanitation, and housing.

Beyond demographic effects, health is an important determinant of human capital development and economic performance. A healthy population is better able to participate effectively in education and the labour market, while poor health can constrain productivity through absenteeism, disability, premature mortality, and reduced physical and cognitive capacity. Health conditions during childhood are particularly important, as adequate nutrition, disease prevention, and access to quality healthcare contribute to physical and cognitive development, educational attainment, and future earning potential.

These relationships are particularly important for Ghana as its working-age population expands. The extent to which the country can translate its demographic transition into a demographic dividend will depend on its ability to develop a healthy, educated, and skilled workforce while creating sufficient productive employment opportunities. Persistent gaps in healthcare access, nutrition, and disease prevention could undermine these gains by limiting educational outcomes, labour productivity, and household incomes.

Strengthening Ghana’s health system should therefore be viewed not only as a social priority but also as an investment in the country’s long-term development. Improved access to quality healthcare, preventive services, nutrition, and sanitation can strengthen human capital, enhance productivity, and support more inclusive and sustained economic growth.

The Demographics and Health scenario, therefore, envisions ambitious improvements in child and maternal mortality rates, enhanced access to modern contraception, and decreased mortality from communicable diseases (e.g., AIDS, diarrhoea, malaria, respiratory infections) and non-communicable diseases (e.g., diabetes), alongside advancements in safe water access and sanitation. This scenario assumes a swift demographic transition supported by heightened investments in health and water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) infrastructure.

Visit the themes on Demographics and Health/WaSH for more details on the scenario structure and interventions.

Over the past decade, Ghana has made notable progress in expanding access to healthcare and strengthening health service delivery. The country has increased the coverage of health facilities, while the number of doctors and nurses per capita has steadily improved. In parallel, the government has promoted Community-based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) to enhance the delivery of primary healthcare at the community level, particularly in underserved and rural areas.

A major milestone in Ghana’s health sector reforms was the establishment of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) in 2003, aimed at improving financial access to essential healthcare services for residents. The scheme was subsequently expanded to include free maternal healthcare in 2008 and free mental healthcare services in 2012. Since its introduction, the NHIS has contributed significantly to increased healthcare utilisation, including higher outpatient visits per capita and improved access to basic health services.

Despite these achievements, substantial challenges remain in ensuring equitable healthcare access and quality outcomes across the country. Significant regional and socio-economic disparities persist in the distribution of healthcare infrastructure, medical personnel, and NHIS coverage. Urban and wealthier populations generally have greater access to healthcare services than poorer and rural communities. Consequently, women from low-income households are more likely to give birth outside formal health facilities, while under-five mortality rates remain disproportionately high among poorer populations.

The NHIS also faces operational and financial sustainability challenges. Delayed reimbursements and inadequate public financing have contributed to service disruptions and the emergence of informal charges, undermining access and affordability for vulnerable groups. In addition, the quality of healthcare delivery continues to be constrained by weak administrative systems, inadequate medical equipment, shortages of essential medicines, and inconsistent adherence to clinical protocols. Ghana’s heavy dependence on imported pharmaceuticals and medical technologies further exacerbates supply vulnerabilities, particularly within public health facilities.

The health sector has also experienced increasing workforce pressures in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, marked by the large-scale emigration of skilled health professionals. Many Ghanaian nurses and doctors have migrated to countries such as the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada in search of better remuneration and working conditions. In 2022 alone, more than 1 200 Ghanaian nurses joined the UK nursing register. This growing health-sector brain drain has placed additional strain on the country’s capacity to deliver quality healthcare services.

In response to these challenges, the government has committed to increasing healthcare expenditure to address infrastructure deficits and workforce shortages. Ghana has also adopted a roadmap toward achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC) by 2030, with a strong emphasis on primary healthcare and community-based service delivery. Central to this strategy is the expansion of the CHPS programme, which decentralises primary healthcare services to more accessible community settings. Currently, more than 6 500 CHPS compounds are operational nationwide, contributing to improved rural healthcare access, greater equity in service delivery, enhanced intersectoral coordination, and improved health system efficiency.

Additionally, the government has launched the Agenda 111 initiative, an ambitious infrastructure programme aimed at constructing 101 district hospitals, seven regional hospitals, two psychiatric hospitals, and redeveloping the Accra Psychiatric Hospital. The initiative seeks to strengthen healthcare infrastructure and ensure broader access to quality healthcare services across all districts and regions of Ghana.

Our modelling adopts the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) framework to analyse the evolving burden of disease and its implications for health sector resource allocation and economic productivity. The analysis categorises mortality into three broad groups: communicable diseases (CDs), non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and injuries. In 1990, CDs accounted for approximately 60.8% of all deaths, reflecting the dominant share of infectious diseases in Ghana's disease burden. NCDs diseases and injuries represented 32.4% and 6.8% of total mortality, respectively. By 2025, however, the mortality profile had shifted considerably, with the share of deaths attributable to CDs declining to 35.2%, while NCDs increased to 53.9% and injuries to 10.8% of total deaths. Cardiovascular and malignant neoplasms diseases emerged as the leading causes of mortality, accounting for an estimated 62 120 and 20 120 deaths, respectively, in 2025.

Ghana reached a critical epidemiological transition in 2017, when mortality from NCDs surpass that from CDs. By 2043, mortality from NCDs is forecast to account for 66.2% of all mortality, while CDs are expected to account for 19.9%. This shift in the disease burden will have significant implications for healthcare financing, labour productivity, and long-term economic growth, as NCDs typically require sustained treatment, long-term care, and greater health system resources. The coexistence of persistent communicable diseases alongside a rising burden of chronic conditions will increase pressure on public health expenditure and healthcare infrastructure. Addressing this dual burden will require strategic investments in healthcare systems, strengthened capacity for chronic disease prevention and management, and expanded access to quality healthcare services. Enhancing preventive healthcare and reinforcing public health institutions will not only improve population health outcomes but also support human capital development, increase workforce productivity, and contribute to Ghana's long-term economic resilience and sustainable development.

Chart 12 presents the infant mortality rate in the Current Path and in the Demographics and Health scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

The infant mortality rate measures the probability that a child born in a given year will die before reaching the age of one. Expressed as the number of infant deaths per 1 000 live births, it is a key indicator of a country’s overall health and socioeconomic development. The rate reflects the broader social, economic, and environmental conditions that influence health outcomes, including household income, nutrition, sanitation, maternal education, and access to quality healthcare services. As a result, infant mortality serves as a widely used proxy for the effectiveness of a country's health system and the inclusiveness of its socio-economic development. Lower infant mortality rates are generally associated with stronger health systems, improved living standards, and greater long-term economic productivity.

Ghana has made significant progress in reducing infant mortality over the past three decades, reflecting improvements in healthcare delivery, human capital development, and overall socio-economic conditions. The infant mortality rate declined from 68.1 deaths per 1 000 live births in 1990 to 29.8 deaths per 1 000 live births in 2025, placing Ghana as the 8th best performer among 24 LMICs in Africa.  This decline in infant mortality underscores significant gains in child survival, supported by expanded access to primary healthcare services, improved maternal and child health interventions, and broader immunisation coverage.

Despite this progress, Ghana is projected to narrowly miss the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of reducing infant mortality to fewer than 25 deaths per 1 000 live births by 2030. On the Current Path forecast, the rate is expected to decline to 26.2 deaths per 1 000 live births by 2030 before falling further to 17.2 deaths per 1 000 live births by 2043. Sustaining this progress will require continued investment in maternal and child healthcare, nutrition, sanitation, and preventive health services to strengthen human capital outcomes and support long-term economic growth.

Under the Demographics and Health scenario, Ghana's infant mortality rate is projected to decline more rapidly, reaching 25.5 deaths per 1 000 live births by 2030, narrowly missing the SDG target of fewer than 25 deaths per 1 000 live births. Continued improvements in health outcomes are expected to further reduce the rate to 15.3 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2043, which will be about 1.9 deaths lower than the Current Path projection in the same year. These gains would enhance human capital accumulation by improving child survival, reducing future healthcare costs, and strengthening the productivity potential of future generations.

Chart 13 presents the demographic dividend in the Current Path and in the Demographics and Health scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

The demographic dividend refers to the potential for accelerated economic growth that arises from shifts in a country's age structure, particularly when declining fertility rates and improvements in health increase the share of the working-age population relative to dependants. As the proportion of children and elderly dependants in the population falls, households can increase savings while governments can redirect resources from consumption towards productive investments in education, infrastructure, and technology. This creates opportunities for higher labour productivity, increased capital accumulation, and stronger long-term economic growth.

A country is generally considered to have entered the demographic dividend phase when the ratio of working-age individuals (aged 15–64) to dependants exceeds 1.7:1. However, favourable demographic conditions alone do not guarantee economic gains. Realising the demographic dividend requires complementary policies that expand employment opportunities, improve education and skills development, strengthen governance, and enhance access to essential services. Without these enabling conditions, a growing working-age population may not translate into higher productivity, incomes, or sustained economic growth.

On the Current Path, Ghana is projected to enter its first demographic dividend window by 2034, approximately 15 years earlier than the average forecast for LMICs in Africa. The country's working-age-to-dependant ratio increased from 1.05 in 1990 to an estimated 1.55 in 2025, exceeding the projected Africa LMIC average of 1.4. This reflects steady progress in Ghana's demographic transition, driven by declining fertility rates and improvements in health outcomes.

Under the Demographics and Health scenario, these gains could be accelerated, enabling Ghana to enter the demographic dividend phase by 2033, one year earlier than under the Current Path. This earlier transition would provide an opportunity to unlock additional economic benefits, provided that supportive policies are in place to expand productive employment, enhance skills development, and improve labour market outcomes.

Chart 14 presents crop production and demand in the Current Path from 1990 to 2043.

Agriculture remains central to Ghana’s economy, serving as a major source of income, employment and food security, particularly in the northern regions where significant agricultural potential remains underutilised. The sector contributes about 20% of its GDP,  employs over half of the workforce and provides livelihoods for many rural households, making it critical to poverty reduction, economic resilience and inclusive development.

Maize, cassava and yam are among Ghana’s principal food staples and are cultivated by the majority of smallholder farmers across the country. Other important food crops include rice, plantain, sorghum, vegetables and fruits, which play a critical role in food security and rural livelihoods. Livestock production, particularly poultry, cattle, sheep and goats, contributes significantly to household incomes, nutrition and asset accumulation, especially in northern Ghana. Commercial agriculture is dominated by export-oriented commodities such as cocoa, oil palm, cashew and horticultural products, which are important sources of foreign exchange earnings. The country is the world's second-largest producer and exporter of cocoa, behind Côte d'Ivoire.

However, the sector remains vulnerable to climate variability, infrastructure deficits and fluctuations in global commodity prices, all of which affect agricultural productivity, export revenues and broader economic performance. Poor infrastructure, inadequate irrigation systems and increasing climate variability remain among the most pressing challenges. Irregular rainfall patterns, recurrent flooding and prolonged dry spells have heightened production risks, particularly for smallholder farmers who rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture. Although the government launched the One Village, One Dam initiative in 2017 to support year-round farming in northern Ghana, implementation challenges and limited funding have reduced its effectiveness, with many dams proving unable to retain sufficient water during the dry season. Consequently, seasonal water shortages continue to undermine agricultural output, household incomes and rural livelihoods.

Additional constraints include low levels of mechanisation, limited adoption of modern technologies, declining soil fertility and inadequate transport and storage infrastructure, all of which contribute to low agricultural productivity. In recent years, illegal mining (galamsey) has emerged as a major threat to agricultural production, particularly in cocoa-growing areas. The destruction of farmland, soil degradation and water pollution associated with mining activities have adversely affected crop yields and rural livelihoods. According to the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), cocoa production has fallen significantly below historical levels, with illegal mining identified as a key contributing factor. In communities such as Mankurom, extensive areas of cocoa farmland have reportedly been lost to galamsey operations, highlighting the growing tension between agricultural sustainability and extractive activities.

To strengthen agricultural productivity and food security, Ghana has implemented several policy initiatives aimed at supporting farmers and modernising the sector. A flagship intervention was the launch of the Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) programme in 2017, which sought to boost agricultural output and rural incomes through the provision of subsidised fertilisers, improved seeds and extension services. By enhancing access to key inputs, the programme has helped address constraints related to low soil fertility, limited productivity and climate vulnerability, particularly among smallholder farmers. Complementing these efforts, the Ghana Feed the Future Agriculture Policy Support Project promotes evidence-based policy reforms and an enabling business environment to attract private-sector investment in agriculture.

In addition, the government has sought to promote sustainable agricultural development through the Ghana Agricultural Investment framework and related policies that support productivity growth, resilience and market access. These efforts are complemented by the Modernising Agriculture in Ghana (MAG) programme, a CAD$135 million initiative aimed at enhancing agricultural productivity through improved extension services, value-chain development and greater market integration. Similarly, initiatives such as BRIDGE-in Agriculture seek to increase youth participation in the sector by providing access to finance, skills development and technical assistance, thereby fostering innovation and sustainable agricultural growth.

Beyond government interventions, development partners and non-governmental organisations also play a significant role in supporting the sector. USAID's Feed the Future initiative, for example, adopts a behaviour-change and market systems approach to help Ghana achieve greater food security and agricultural self-sufficiency. The programme focuses on improving agricultural productivity and profitability, strengthening market systems, expanding access to finance, enhancing resilience to climate shocks, promoting economic inclusion and improving nutrition outcomes. These objectives are pursued through evidence-based interventions, including support for food security programmes in northern Ghana, sustainable fisheries management, the promotion of nutrient-rich crops, improvements in processing and storage infrastructure, and partnerships with private-sector actors to strengthen competitiveness and compliance with national and international standards. Collectively, these efforts are intended to modernise the agricultural sector, raise productivity and improve food security.

In 1990, Ghana's total crop production was at 7.8 million metric tons, compared with total crop demand of 8.3 million metric tons, resulting in a supply deficit of approximately 0.5 million metric tons. Over the period 1990–2025, crop production expanded substantially, reaching an estimated 63.2 million metric tons by 2025. This represents an average annual growth rate of 6.2%, nearly double the 3.3% average recorded for the LMICs in Africa. During the same period, total crop demand increased at an average annual rate of 6%, reaching approximately 63.2 million metric tons by 2025. As a result, Ghana narrowed its crop deficit to the margins, with demand exceeding production by around 20 000 metric tons.

Under the Current Path, Ghana’s total crop production is projected to reach 88.5 million metric tons by 2043, while crop demand is expected to increase to 87.9 million metric tons. As production growth slightly outpaces demand growth, the country is forecast to move into a crop surplus of approximately 0.6 million metric tons, indicating a narrowing gap between domestic supply and consumption requirements.

The Agriculture scenario envisions an agricultural revolution that ensures food security through ambitious yet feasible increases in yields per hectare, thanks to improved management, seed, fertiliser technology and expanded irrigation. Efforts to reduce food loss and waste are emphasised. Additionally, enhanced forest protection signifies a commitment to sustainable land use practices.

Chart 15 presents the import dependence in the Current Path and the Agriculture scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

Visit the theme on Agriculture for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

In the Agriculture Scenario, crop yields are projected to increase to 15.9 metric tons per hectare by 2043, representing a 43.7% improvement above the Current Path and nearly three times the projected average yield of 6.3 metric tons per hectare for LMICs in Africa. The substantial gains in agricultural productivity translate into significantly higher output, with total crop production projected to reach 123.7 million metric tons by 2043, approximately 35.2 million metric tons above the level anticipated under the Current Path.

The resulting expansion in domestic crop production would substantially reduce Ghana's dependence on crop imports and strengthen its agricultural trade balance. By 2043, the country is projected to become a net exporter of crops, with net exports equivalent to 51.3% of total crop demand under the Agriculture Scenario. This outcome underscores Ghana's potential to achieve food self-sufficiency while generating sizeable export surpluses, provided sustained investments and transformative reforms are implemented to enhance agricultural productivity and competitiveness.

To unlock the sector's full potential, policy efforts should focus on increasing productivity, improving climate resilience, expanding rural infrastructure, strengthening agricultural finance and promoting value addition. Such measures would enhance food security, create jobs, increase export earnings and support Ghana's broader goals of inclusive and sustainable economic development.

Chart 16 depicts the progress through the educational system in the Current Path, for 2023 and 2043.

Countries with large youth populations must invest heavily in education and skills development to harness the demographic dividend and support sustained economic growth. Broadening access to quality education is essential for poverty reduction, human capital accumulation, and moderating population growth. By equipping all children with the knowledge and skills needed to participate productively in the economy, education serves as a key driver of inclusive development and long-term prosperity.

Like many African countries, Ghana's education system follows a 6–3–3 structure, comprising six years of primary education, three years of junior secondary education, three years of senior secondary education, and then tertiary education. Despite notable progress in expanding access to education, Ghana’s education sector continues to face significant resource and infrastructure constraints. Government expenditure on education, which was about 3% of GDP in 2025, remains below UNESCO’s recommended benchmark of 6% of GDP, limiting the resources available to accommodate growing enrolment and improve the quality of education. These funding pressures have contributed to infrastructure deficits, overcrowded classrooms, and shortages of qualified teachers and essential teaching and learning materials. The challenges are particularly evident at the basic education level, where public schools accommodate a large share of learners and therefore face considerable pressure to provide adequate infrastructure, resources, and quality instruction.

The education system can be conceptualised as a long-term funnel in which learners progress from primary through secondary to tertiary education. Although many students enter the system at the primary level, relatively few complete the full cycle and emerge with tertiary qualifications. In Ghana, substantial leakages along this funnel through dropout, low progression rates, and incomplete transitions between educational levels constrain human capital accumulation and reduce the efficiency of investments in education.

Of Ghana’s estimated population of 35 million in 2025, approximately 9.1 million individuals were enrolled in educational institutions across all levels, representing an increase of 960 590 students compared with 2020. Primary education accounted for the largest share of enrolment, with more than 4.8 million learners, while tertiary enrolment reached 692 283 students. The latter reflects an increase of 145 780 students over the same period, highlighting the growing demand for higher education and continued investment in human capital development.

Ghana has made substantial progress in expanding access to primary education. In 2025, the gross enrolment rate at the primary level was estimated at approximately 97%, broadly in line with the average for Africa LMICs in Africa and an improvement from 61.5% in 1990. However, the corresponding net enrolment rate of 86.7% suggests that important challenges remain. The gap between gross and net enrolment indicates, first, that a proportion of school-age children remain outside the education system and, second, that a significant number of learners are over-aged for their grade level, contributing to overcrowded classrooms, a common feature across many African education systems. Under the Current Path scenario, both indicators are expected to improve further, with the gross enrolment rate approaching universal participation at 100.6% and the net enrolment rate rising to 94.1%, reflecting expected continuous gains in educational access and retention.

The transition rate from primary to lower secondary education in Ghana was estimated at 93.7% in 2025, significantly higher than the average of 80.9% for LMICs in Africa. This strong progression rate reflects relatively low attrition between the two levels of schooling and suggests that most learners who complete primary education continue their studies at the lower secondary level. Under the Current Path scenario, the transition rate is projected to increase further to 96.3% by 2043, indicating expected continuous improvements in educational retention and progression, which are essential for strengthening human capital accumulation and supporting long-term economic development.

Gross enrolment rates at both lower and upper secondary levels in Ghana compare favourably with those of many peer countries in Africa. In 2025, gross enrolment in lower secondary education was estimated at 83.0%, significantly higher than the average of 68.3% for LMICs in Africa. Similarly, gross enrolment in upper secondary education reached 74.7%, well above the Africa LMIC average of 47.1%. 

The transition rate from lower to upper secondary education was estimated at 99% in 2025, indicating that almost all students who completed lower secondary schooling progressed to the upper secondary level. This exceptionally high transition rate reflects strong retention within the education system and suggests that barriers to progression between the two levels are minimal.

According to the 2025 Human Development Index (HDI) Report, based on 2023 data, Ghana remained classified as a medium human development country, with an HDI score of 0.628 and a global ranking of 143rd out of 191 countries, placing it above many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Africa. However, this represents a slight deterioration in human development outcomes compared to 2021, when Ghana recorded an HDI score of 0.632 and ranked 133rd globally. The decline in both score and ranking suggests that progress in key dimensions of human development (education, health and income) has not kept pace with improvements achieved by other countries globally.

Ghana has introduced several policy reforms to strengthen its education system and expand access, most notably through the Education Strategic Plan (ESP) 2018–2030. Key interventions include the Free Senior High School (SHS) policy, launched in 2017, which removed tuition fees to improve affordability and broaden participation. The government has also expanded school infrastructure to accommodate rising enrolment, improved learning quality through the provision of core textbooks and supplementary readers, and rationalised teacher deployment to enhance efficiency. To promote equity, a 30% quota has been introduced in elite senior high schools for students from public junior high schools.

Under the Current Path scenario, lower and upper secondary educational participation is expected to improve further. Gross enrolment in lower secondary education is projected to increase to 93.6% by 2043, while upper secondary enrolment is forecast to rise to 85.2%. These gains would enhance educational attainment, expand the skilled labour force, and support the country's long-term economic growth and structural transformation objectives.  With upper secondary  enrolment reaching 85% by 2043, demand for tertiary education in Ghana is likely to increase significantly in years after 2043. A comparison with countries (such as Bolivia and Vietnam) that had upper secondary enrolment rate in the mid- to high 80% range in 2022 suggests that higher tertiary participation often follows.

At the tertiary level, educational participation remains relatively limited despite progress in expanding access. In 2025, the gross enrolment rate in tertiary education was estimated at 20.7%, indicating that only about one in five individuals of tertiary-school age were enrolled in higher education. While this figure was slightly above the average of approximately 19.1% for LMICs in Africa, it underscores the continued challenges in expanding advanced skills development and human capital formation. Moreover, the tertiary graduation rate was estimated at just 13.8% in 2025, suggesting that a significant proportion of those entering higher education do not successfully complete their studies.

Under the Current Path scenario, tertiary enrolment is projected to increase modestly to 28.5% by 2043, remaining only marginally higher than the forecast average of 24.8% for Africa LMICs. The tertiary graduation rate is also expected to improve, rising to 18.7% by 2043. While these projection trends point to gradual gains in both access and completion, the projected pace of improvement remains modest. Further investments in tertiary education will therefore be critical to accelerating human capital accumulation required for sustained economic growth and structural transformation.

Chart 17 presents the mean years of education in the Current Path and in the Education scenario, from 2020 to 2043, for the 15 to 24 age group.

The Education scenario represents reasonable but ambitious improvements in intake, transition, and graduation rates from primary to tertiary levels and better quality of education at primary and secondary levels. It also models substantive progress towards gender parity at all levels, additional vocational training at the secondary school level, and increases in the share of science and engineering graduates.

Visit the theme on Education for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

The average years of education among the population aged 15–24 years is an important indicator of the evolving stock of human capital in an economy. It provides insight into the extent to which younger generations are acquiring knowledge and skills, and serves as a useful measure of progress in educational attainment.

In 2025, Ghana ranked eighth in Africa, with an average educational attainment of 10.6 years of schooling (10 years for males and 11.3 years for females). Under the Current Path scenario, average years of schooling are projected to increase to 11.7 years by 2043. Under the Education Scenario, educational attainment is expected to rise further to 12.2 years by 2043 (11.6 years for males and 12.7 years for females), representing an additional gain of 0.5 years relative to the Current Path.

Under the Education Scenario, learning outcomes improve substantially relative to the Current Path. By 2043, average primary school test scores are projected to reach 44.8, representing a 19.4% increase over the Current Path outcome in the same year. Similarly, average secondary school test scores are expected to rise to 42.9, which is 13.9% higher than the Current Path projection. These gains in educational quality are accompanied by improvements in educational access and attainment, with the literacy rate increasing to 90.9% by 2043, a 0.3 percentage points above the Current Path and a marked improvement from the estimated 80.2% recorded in 2025. The share of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) graduates among tertiary graduates is projected to increase to 18.7% by 2043, five percentage points higher than the Current Path in the same year and a substantial rise from 5.2% in 2025. 

Chart 18 presents the value-add by sector as share of GDP in the Current Path, for 2023 and 2043.

The manufacturing sector remains a key pillar of economic transformation, serving as an important source of productivity growth, employment generation and structural diversification. In Ghana, the sector employs more than 250 000 people and encompasses a broad range of activities, including mining-related manufacturing, light industry, aluminium smelting, food processing, cement production and shipbuilding. Major manufactured products include processed cocoa, beverages, palm oil, textiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, electric vehicles, aluminium and cement, reflecting the sector’s growing role in domestic value addition and industrial development.

Recognising the strategic importance of manufacturing, Ghana has implemented a range of policies and incentives to stimulate investment, enhance competitiveness and deepen industrialisation. These include exemptions from minimum foreign capital requirements for manufacturing investors, incentives for manufacturing and export-oriented firms through the Free Zones Scheme, and targeted support for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) under the MSME and Entrepreneurship Policy. Such measures are intended to attract FDI, expand domestic production capacity and accelerate economic growth.

Complementing these efforts, the Industrial Transformation Agenda, launched in 2017, outlines a ten-point strategy to strengthen local production and reduce import dependence, particularly in sectors such as automotive manufacturing and pharmaceuticals. The One District, One Factory (1D1F) initiative further seeks to promote geographically inclusive industrial development by establishing at least one factory in every district, thereby strengthening local value chains, creating employment opportunities and fostering regional economic development. In addition, Ghana is well positioned to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), headquartered in Accra, to access larger regional markets, expand manufacturing output and enhance export competitiveness.

Despite these policy interventions, the sector continues to face significant structural constraints that limit its contribution to economic growth and industrial upgrading. High electricity tariffs and unreliable power supply raise production costs and reduce profitability, particularly for energy-intensive industries. The burden of import duties, indirect taxes and levies further undermines competitiveness, offsetting some of the benefits provided through investment incentives. Access to finance remains another major challenge, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, as financial institutions often perceive manufacturing activities as high-risk and impose restrictive lending conditions. This constrains firms’ ability to invest in new technologies, innovation and capacity expansion. Furthermore, weaknesses in logistics and supply chain management, compounded by limited access to formal training, contribute to inefficiencies and elevated operating costs.

Persistent infrastructure deficits, including inadequate transport networks, poor road and rail connectivity, and unpredictable lead times, continue to hamper the sector’s productivity and integration into regional and global value chains. As a result, addressing these bottlenecks will be critical for enhancing the competitiveness of Ghana’s manufacturing sector and unlocking its potential as an engine of sustained economic growth and employment creation.

Ghana’s economic structure is dominated by the services, agriculture and manufacturing sectors, which together account for the majority of national output. In 2025, the services sector was the largest contributor to GDP, accounting for an estimated 50.1%, underscoring its central role in driving economic activity. The agriculture sector followed, contributing approximately 19.3% of GDP and continuing to serve as a critical source of livelihoods and food security. Manufacturing contributed an estimated 13.5% of GDP, reflecting its importance in value addition, industrialisation and structural transformation.

Other key sectors included information and communications technology (ICT), which accounted for nearly 6% of GDP, highlighting the growing role of the digital economy, while the energy and materials sectors contributed 5.6% and 5.4% of GDP, respectively. Together, these sectoral contributions illustrate the diverse composition of Ghana’s economy.

On the Current Path, the services sector is projected to further consolidate its position as the dominant driver of Ghana’s economy, with its share of GDP increasing to 56.9% by 2043.  Over the same period, manufacturing is expected to emerge as the second-largest contributor to GDP, with its share rising to 19.2%, surpassing agriculture as industrialisation and domestic value addition gain momentum. In contrast, the agriculture sector’s contribution is projected to decline to 7.9% of GDP by 2043, consistent with the structural transformation process in which labour and resources gradually shift from lower-productivity agricultural activities to higher-productivity industrial and service sectors.

The information and communications technology (ICT) sector is also expected to expand its economic footprint, contributing 7% of GDP by 2043, reflecting the growing role of digitalisation in economic development. Meanwhile, the materials and energy sectors are projected to account for 6.3% and 2.6% of GDP, respectively. Overall, these trends point to a more diversified and modern economy, characterised by a greater reliance on services, manufacturing and technology-driven activities as key sources of growth.

Chart 19 presents the contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP in the Current Path and in the Manufacturing scenario, from 2020 to 2043. The data is in US$ and % of GDP.

In the Manufacturing scenario, reasonable but ambitious growth in manufacturing is envisaged through increased investment in the sector, research and development (R&D) and improved government regulation of businesses.

Visit the theme on Manufacturing for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

As industrialisation deepens and productivity gains spread across the economy, the expansion of manufacturing typically creates higher-quality employment, raises household incomes and supports more inclusive and sustained economic growth. The larger manufacturing footprint would not only enhance economic diversification but also support export competitiveness and the development of stronger domestic value chains. Over time, these effects can contribute significantly to poverty reduction and a broader distribution of economic opportunities, reinforcing the long-term benefits of structural transformation.

In the Manufacturing Scenario, Ghana is projected to make significant progress in industrialisation and structural transformation. By 2043, the manufacturing sector’s contribution to GDP is expected to increase to 21.8%. This would represent an expansion of approximately 2.6 percentage points relative to the Current Path.

Realising these gains, however, requires a sustained and coordinated industrialisation strategy. Industrial development is a complex and long-term process that depends on effective collaboration between the state and the private sector. The state plays a critical role in addressing market failures and creating the conditions necessary for firms to invest, innovate and expand. This includes articulating a clear economic vision, maintaining macroeconomic stability, providing reliable infrastructure and public services, and ensuring a regulatory environment that supports entrepreneurship and investment.

Equally important is the state's ability to facilitate technological upgrading, enhance firms’ access to finance and skills, and lower barriers to entry into new industries and export markets. By strengthening these enabling conditions, governments can accelerate industrial upgrading, improve competitiveness and support the transition towards a more diversified and resilient economy.

Chart 20 depicts exports and imports as a percentage of GDP, from 2000 to 2043, in the Current Path.

Ghana’s economy is relatively well integrated into global markets compared to many of its African peers. In 2025, it ranked 26th out of 54 African countries in terms of trade openness, with total trade measured as the sum of exports and imports estimated at 66.4% of its GDP. This represents a significant increase from 42.7% of GDP in 1990, reflecting the country’s growing integration into the global economy. Despite this relatively high degree of openness, Ghana’s export basket remains concentrated in a narrow range of primary commodities. Gold, cocoa and crude oil account for the majority of export earnings and foreign exchange receipts, leaving the economy exposed to fluctuations in global commodity prices and external demand conditions.

Ghana is among the world’s leading producers of both gold and cocoa, underscoring the continued importance of the extractive and agricultural sectors to the country’s external trade performance. However, this dependence also highlights the need for greater export diversification and value addition to enhance economic resilience and support long-term structural transformation.

The country’s trade policy is centred towards promoting economic growth, strengthening export competitiveness and deepening the country’s integration into regional and global markets. To support these objectives, Ghana has entered into a range of multilateral, regional and bilateral trade agreements that expand market access and facilitate cross-border trade. As a longstanding member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Ghana is a signatory to the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement, which aims to reduce trade costs and improve the efficiency of international commerce.

At the regional level, Ghana is a member of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which seeks to promote economic integration and facilitate the free movement of goods, services and factors of production across West Africa. Ghana has also ratified the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement, whose Secretariat is headquartered in Accra. The AfCFTA provides a strategic opportunity to expand intra-African trade, strengthen regional value chains and support industrial development through access to a larger continental market.

Beyond Africa, Ghana has secured preferential access to key international markets through several bilateral agreements. These include the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the European Union and a similar interim agreement with the United Kingdom, both of which provide reduced tariffs on a substantial share of traded goods. Ghana also participates in the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement with the United States, enabling many of its exports to benefit from duty-free access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). Collectively, these agreements enhance Ghana’s trade competitiveness, attract investment and create opportunities for export-led growth and economic diversification.

To further promote trade and investment, Ghana has pursued a range of policies aimed at trade liberalisation, tariff rationalisation and investment promotion. A key component of this strategy is the government’s ambition to position the country as a regional automotive manufacturing hub in sub-Saharan Africa. To support this objective, Ghana offers tax incentives and other investment facilitation measures to attract Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to establish local assembly operations. As a result, several global automotive companies, including Toyota, Volkswagen, Nissan, Suzuki, Kia and Mahindra, have established vehicle assembly plants in the country. More recently, fiscal reforms include adjustments to excise duties and the introduction of the Growth and Sustainability Levy, have been implemented to strengthen public finances and enhance fiscal sustainability. While these measures are important for macroeconomic stability, they may also affect firms’ production costs, profitability and overall competitiveness.

Despite these efforts, several structural constraints continue to limit Ghana’s trade and investment potential. Access to affordable finance remains a major challenge for domestic firms, with commercial lending rates averaging around 32%, significantly increasing the cost of capital and constraining business expansion and export capacity. Ghana’s elevated public debt burden and persistent challenges in domestic revenue mobilisation further reduce fiscal space and weigh on private sector activity.

In addition, businesses face a range of operational bottlenecks, including limited access to financial services, governance and transparency concerns, corruption, inadequate infrastructure, a complex land and property market, and unreliable electricity and water supply. High logistics and cross-border trade costs, cumbersome administrative procedures and skills shortages also undermine productivity and competitiveness. Addressing these structural impediments will be essential for improving Ghana’s business environment, strengthening export performance and fully realising the country’s potential as a regional trade and manufacturing hub.

On the Current Path, Ghana’s trade openness is projected to increase further, with total trade rising to 81.2% of GDP by 2043. This would place the country well above the projected averages for both Africa’s LMICs (63.6% of GDP) and the continent as a whole (65.3% of GDP) in the same year.

In 2025, Ghana's exports accounted for 31.4% of its GDP, an increase of 14.5 percentage points when compared to 1990, underscoring its firm reliance on external trade. The country’s export composition is highly concentrated in homogeneous goods (gold, crude petroleum, cocoa and other primary products), which account for the majority of the country’s export earnings. Under the Current Path, Ghana’s export performance is projected to strengthen further, with exports increasing to 41.0% of GDP by 2043.

The concentration of Ghana’s export basket can be assessed by examining the share of total export earnings accounted for by its five largest export products. A higher share indicates greater dependence on a narrow range of products, while a lower share reflects a more diversified and potentially resilient export structure. In 2024, Ghana’s top five exports accounted for approximately 77% of total export earnings, highlighting a relatively high degree of export concentration. Gold was the largest export, contributing 36.9% of total export revenues, followed by crude petroleum (23.1%), cocoa beans (9.1%), cocoa paste (4.4%) and manganese ore (3.5%). This composition underscores the continued dominance of primary commodities in Ghana’s export sector and its exposure to fluctuations in global commodity markets. The country’s principal export destinations were Switzerland, China, India, the United States and the Netherlands.

Ghana’s import basket is relatively diversified and dominated by manufactured goods, with the top five import categories accounting for only 15.6% of total imports in 2024. Refined petroleum products constituted the largest share (7.5%), followed by heavy construction vehicles (3.0%), poultry meat (1.8%), passenger cars (1.7%), and telecommunication devices, including mobile phones (1.7%). These imports were sourced primarily from China, India, the Netherlands, the United States, and Belgium.

Chart 21 presents the trade balance in the Current Path and in the AfCFTA scenario, from 2020 to 2043 as a percentage of GDP.

Deeper regional economic integration, supported by more efficient cross-border movement of goods and services, could accelerate economic development across Africa by reducing trade costs, improving market access, and strengthening regional value chains. As incomes and living standards rise across the continent, expanding consumer demand would increase the size and purchasing power of the regional market. For Ghana, this would create greater opportunities for domestic firms to expand exports, achieve economies of scale, diversify production, and integrate more deeply into regional value chains. Ghana’s access to a larger and more prosperous African market could therefore become an important source of trade-led growth and structural transformation.

The AfCFTA scenario represents the impact of fully implementing the African Continental Free Trade Agreement by 2034. The scenario increases exports in manufacturing, agriculture, services, ICT, materials and energy exports. It also includes improved multifactor productivity growth from trade and reduced tariffs for all sectors.

Visit the theme on AfCFTA for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

Historically, Ghana has recorded persistent trade deficits, reflecting a structural imbalance between its import and export earnings. In 2025, the trade deficit was estimated at approximately 3.6% of GDP, driven largely by deficits in the services and agricultural trade. Under the Current Path scenario, Ghana’s external trade position is projected to improve steadily, resulting in a trade surplus equivalent to about 0.8% of GDP (approximately US$2.4 billion) by 2043.

In contrast, under the AfCFTA scenario, Ghana is projected to record a trade deficit of nearly 0.4% of GDP (equivalent to around 1.2 billion) in 2043. This suggests that while the AfCFTA may stimulate greater trade integration and economic activity, it is also expected to increase import demand more rapidly than export growth, effectively reversing the trade surplus projected under the Current Path and resulting in a modest trade deficit.

Chart 22 presents the Current Path of access to electricity for urban, rural and the total population from 2000 to 2043.

The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario involves ambitious investments in road and renewable energy infrastructure, improved electricity access and accelerated broadband connectivity. It emphasises adopting modern technologies to enhance government efficiency and incorporates significant investments in major infrastructure projects like rail, ports and airports (other infra) while highlighting the positive impacts of renewables and ICT.

Visit the themes on Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

Modern infrastructure plays a pivotal role in economic development by enhancing productivity, improving health outcomes, strengthening educational attainment, and increasing the efficiency of public service delivery. This study considers both physical and digital infrastructure, encompassing transport networks, electricity access, and information and communication technologies (ICT).

Physical infrastructure such as roads and railways are fundamental drivers of economic growth, reducing transaction costs, facilitating the movement of people, goods, and services, and deepening domestic market integration. It also serves as a critical enabler of social development by improving access to essential services such as education and healthcare.

Digital infrastructure serves as the backbone of innovation, productivity growth, and economic transformation. Reliable internet connectivity, mobile networks, and digital platforms facilitate the flow of information, expand access to financial and government services, support business competitiveness, and enable participation in the digital economy. By improving communication, reducing information asymmetries, and fostering technological adoption, digital infrastructure enhances economic efficiency and strengthens a country's capacity to integrate into regional and global value chains. Together, physical and digital infrastructure create the enabling environment necessary for sustained economic growth and inclusive development.

Ghana’s relatively high level of urbanisation facilitates the provision of infrastructure and public services, as delivering infrastructure in densely populated urban areas is generally more cost-effective than in dispersed rural communities. Reflecting this advantage, Ghana ranked 12th out of 54 African countries on the African Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI) in 2025, with a score of 84.5 out of 100. The AIDI assesses infrastructure performance across four key dimensions: transport, electricity, information and communication technology (ICT), and water supply and sanitation. Despite notable progress in expanding access to and improving the quality of infrastructure over recent decades, Ghana continues to face significant infrastructure challenges. Much of the country's infrastructure stock remains inadequate to meet growing demand, while ageing assets and maintenance deficits constrain service quality and economic productivity.

Recognising the role of transport infrastructure as a catalyst for economic growth and structural transformation, the government has prioritised investments aimed at modernising the country's transport network. Consequently, several major road projects have been implemented in Accra and other key urban centres, including Kumasi and Cape Coast. In August 2024, the government further launched the District Road Improvement Programme (DRIP), which seeks to strengthen the capacity of Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies (MMDAs) by providing equipment and resources for local road construction and maintenance. Despite these efforts, Ghana's road infrastructure remains comparatively underdeveloped relative to many of its regional peers, highlighting the need for continued investment to address infrastructure gaps and support long-term economic development.

By 2025, Ghana’s road network had expanded substantially, growing from an estimated 38 145 km in 1990 to 70 086 km. Despite this progress, only about 25.3% of the network was paved, compared with an estimated African average of 32%, highlighting a persistent infrastructure quality gap. Under the Current Path scenario, Ghana’s total road network is projected to increase further to approximately 103 637 km by 2043. Over the same period, significant investment in road infrastructure is expected to accelerate the upgrading of the network, with paved roads increasing to account for 62.1% of total road length.

Regarding access to electricity, the country has made significant investments in electricity generation capacity over the years. Ghana’s power supply sources include hydroelectricity and thermal plants. It consists of 1.584MW of installed hydro, 3.758MW of thermal power plants (mostly fuelled by natural gas from Nigeria and sometimes light crude oil), and 112MW of solar generation.  The major source of hydro production in Ghana is the Akosombo dam which was constructed in 1965 generate 1 020MW. Other hydro sources of power include the Kpong Hydro Plant established in 1982 which generates 160MW. The Bui Dam which was also constructed from 2007 and completed in 2013 also generates 400MW of hydro power for the country. Major thermal sources include the Karadeniz Powership Osman Khan (470MW), Aksa Enerji Oil Fired Power Plant (370MW) and Sunon Asogli Power Plant Phase II (360 MW), mostly owned and operated by independent power producers. Aside these, the Volta River Athority also operate the TAPCO (T1), TICO(2), Tema Thermal Plant 1&2, among others. The VRA also operate various solar plants such as Navrongo, Lawra and Kaleo solar plants.

As a result of sustained investments in electricity generation and distribution, Ghana has made remarkable progress in expanding access to electricity, with the electrification rate increasing from 30.6% in 1993 to an estimated 87.1% of the population in 2025. This places Ghana well above the estimated averages of 72% for LMICs in Africa and 61% for the continent as a whole. The country's relatively strong electricity sector has also enabled it to export electricity to neighbouring countries, including Togo, Burkina Faso, and Benin.

However, significant spatial disparities in access persist. In 2025, an estimated 95.7% of urban residents had access to electricity, compared to 74.2% of the rural population, reflecting the higher costs and logistical challenges associated with extending grid infrastructure to sparsely populated areas. Nevertheless, Ghana remains one of the leading performers in electricity access in Africa, owing largely to successive government investments in rural electrification programmes that have significantly expanded access beyond major urban centres.

Despite Ghana’s relatively high electricity access rate, the reliability and stability of power supply remain significant challenges. The country has experienced recurrent periods of load shedding, commonly known as Dumsor, with the most severe episode occurring between 2014 and 2016. The prolonged power crisis imposed substantial economic costs by disrupting industrial production, reducing business productivity, and constraining economic growth.

Addressing the crisis required costly emergency interventions. To alleviate power shortages, the government entered into agreements with Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and procured emergency power plants, leading to the accumulation of substantial financial obligations through capacity charge arrangements. These agreements guaranteed payments to IPPs for maintaining generation capacity, regardless of actual electricity consumption. As a result, Ghana paid an estimated US$937.5 million in capacity charges between 2017 and 2020.

The financial sustainability of the power sector remains under pressure, with mounting debt owed to IPPs raising concerns about the sector’s viability. For example, Sunon Asogli power temporarily shut down its 560 MW plant due to outstanding arrears reportedly amounting to US$259 million owed by the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG), while several other IPPs have issued similar warnings over unpaid debts. The situation is further exacerbated by operational inefficiencies and persistent financial losses at ECG, the country's main power distribution utility. In 2022 alone, ECG recorded losses estimated at  GHC10.2 billion, reflecting challenges related to revenue collection, technical losses, and inefficiencies in electricity distribution.

Unless the structural drivers of the sector's debt burden are effectively addressed including financial losses, cost-recovery challenges, and governance inefficiencies, the long-term sustainability of Ghana’s power sector will remain at risk, with potentially adverse implications for economic growth, investment, and energy security.

Under the Current Path scenario, electricity access in Ghana is projected to expand further, reaching 96.8% of the population by 2043. While urban residents are expected to continue enjoying higher levels of access, the urban-rural gap is projected to narrow considerably over time. By 2043, electricity access among urban residents is forecast to reach 99.6%, while rural electrification is expected to increase to 90.9%.

Chart 23 presents the number of people using cookstoves in the Current Path and in the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

Cooking with biomass stoves poses serious health risks, especially for women and children, due to prolonged exposure to indoor air pollution, which can lead to respiratory illnesses. At the same time, reliance on biomass fuels contributes to deforestation, forest degradation and significant carbon emissions, further intensifying climate change.

In 2025, an estimated 74.9% of households in Ghana relied on traditional cooking fuels, while 23.5% used modern cooking fuels. Only 1.5% of households were estimated to use improved cookstoves. This relatively low adoption of modern cooking technologies is notable given the country's high electricity access rate. It suggests that factors such as unreliable electricity supply, affordability constraints, and limited access to alternative clean cooking fuels may be hindering the transition away from traditional cooking methods.

A similar pattern is observed across LMICs in Africa, where an estimated 51.2% of the population still relies on traditional cookstoves, while 44.9% use modern cooking fuels. Continued dependence on traditional cooking fuels contributes to indoor and outdoor air pollution, increases greenhouse gas emissions. Under the Current Path scenario, the share of Ghanaians relying on traditional cookstoves is projected to decline significantly, from 74.9% in 2025 to 28.2% by 2043. Over the same period, the proportion of households using modern cooking fuels is expected to increase to 71.3%.

Under the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, the transition to cleaner cooking technologies is expected to occur more rapidly. The share of households using traditional cookstoves could fall to 23.4% by 2043, which will be 4.8 percentage points lower than the Current Path projection for the same year. Correspondingly, the adoption of modern cooking fuels is projected to rise from 23.5% in 2025 to 76.1% by 2043, exceeding the Current Path forecast of 71.3%.

Chart 24 presents the percentage of the population and number of people with access to mobile and fixed broadband in the Current Path and in the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, from 2020 to 2043. The user can toggle between mobile and fixed broadband.

The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario is projected to accelerate the expansion of fixed broadband connectivity in Ghana. By 2043, fixed broadband subscriptions are expected to reach 22.6 subscriptions per 100 people, compared with 17.1 subscriptions per 100 people under the Current Path. In contrast, the scenario has only a marginal effect on mobile broadband penetration, reflecting the country's already strong performance in this area. Under the Current Path, mobile broadband subscriptions are projected to reach 154.4 subscriptions per 100 people by 2043, unchanged under the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario. This suggests that the greatest gains from additional infrastructure investments are likely to come from expanding fixed broadband access, where significant scope for improvement remains.

Chart 25 presents the trends in FDI, aid and remittances in the Current Path and in the Financial Flows scenario as a percentage of GDP, from 1990 to 2043.

The Financial Flows scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious increase in inward flows of worker remittances, aid to poor countries and an increase in the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) and additional portfolio investment inflows. We reduce outward financial flows to emulate a reduction in illicit financial outflows.

Visit the theme on Financial Flows for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

Like many African economies, Ghana has historically attracted relatively low levels of FDI. In 1990, FDI inflows amounted to just 0.3% of GDP, below the average of 0.7% of GDP recorded by LMICs in Africa. Since then, however, Ghana has emerged as one of the continent’s more attractive investment destinations. By 2025, FDI inflows had increased substantially to an estimated 5.7% of GDP, more than double the LMIC average of 2.8% of GDP.

Ghana's FDI flows are predominantly directed into several major industries, including manufacturing, building and construction, tourism, services, general trading and export trading, and agriculture, which are critical for job creation and economic growth. However, the promising sectors are the downstream oil, gas and minerals processing; construction and real estate; mining-related services subsectors; agribusiness and food processing; ICT and business-related services; textiles and apparel. These sectors offer significant opportunities for industrialisation, export diversification, and structural transformation.

The country has implemented a range of policy measures to attract and retain FDI. The Ghana Investment Promotion Centre (GIPC) Act of 2013 provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for foreign investment, promoting transparency, legal certainty, and investor protection across key sectors, including mining, oil and gas, agriculture, and manufacturing. To enhance its attractiveness as an investment destination, the government offers various incentives, such as tax holidays, preferential corporate tax rates, and exemptions from import duties and value-added tax (VAT) on selected inputs and capital goods.

In addition, substantial investments in transport, energy, and telecommunications infrastructure have sought to improve the overall business environment and reduce the cost of doing business. The Ghana Free Zones Authority (GFZA) further supports investment promotion by overseeing free zones that provide a range of fiscal and regulatory incentives aimed at attracting export-oriented industries and foreign investors. Together with Ghana’s political stability, abundant natural resource endowment, and strategic location within West Africa, these policies have contributed to creating a relatively favourable investment climate and strengthening the country's appeal as a destination for international capital.

However, there are still challenges in attracting FDI. Economic uncertainties, such as exchange rate volatility and high inflation, deter potential investors. Poor infrastructure, particularly in transportation and utilities, hampers investment opportunities and increases operational costs. Furthermore, high minimum capital requirements and bureaucratic hurdles complicate the investment process, making Ghana less attractive to foreign investors. Weak governance and corruption further undermine investor confidence, as investors prefer stable legal environments for their investments.

Under the Current Path scenario, FDI inflows are projected to increase steadily, reaching 6.6% of GDP by 2043, well above the average of 3.3% projected for African LMICs. Under the Financial Flows scenario, FDI inflows are expected to rise further to 8.6% of GDP by 2043, representing an increase of 2.1 percentage points relative to the Current Path forecast.

Typical of many developing economies, Ghana's dependence on foreign aid has declined markedly over time. In 1990, official development assistance amounted to 9.7% of GDP, exceeding the average of 7.4% recorded by LMICs in Africa. Aid inflows peaked in the early 2000s, largely due to Ghana's participation in the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, which provided substantial debt relief and concessional financing. Between 2000 and 2005, aid inflows averaged approximately 13% of GDP, reflecting the significant role of external assistance in supporting public finances and development programmes.

Since then, however, the importance of aid as a source of financing has diminished considerably. By 2025, aid inflows had fallen to just 1.66% of GDP, only marginally above the estimated LMIC average of 1.58% for Africa. This decline reflects not only a reduction in external assistance but also Ghana's economic expansion, which has reduced the relative contribution of aid to national income. As the economy has grown and diversified, domestic revenue mobilisation, private investment, and other external financial flows have become increasingly important sources of development finance.

Most aid to the country goes into the health, education and agriculture sectors, with an emphasis on the poorest and most vulnerable populations. Aid and donor support are also used to strengthen institutions, implement anti-corruption campaigns, enhance tax policies, and boost social services.

As part of the effort to reduce the reliance on aid, the President in 2018 announced the Ghana Beyond Aid vision. In his speech on Ghana’s 61st Independence Day celebration, the President stated “It is time to pursue a path to prosperity and self-respect for our nation. A Ghana Beyond Aid is a prosperous and self-confident Ghana that is in charge of her economic destiny; a transformed Ghana that is prosperous enough to be beyond needing aid, and that engages competitively with the rest of the world through trade and investment.” However, this vision has yet to materialise, especially after the 2022 economic crisis where Ghana had to seek debt relief from multilateral and bilateral creditors. For instance, in June 2024, the country received US$2.8 billion in debt relief from bilateral creditors as part of the IMF programme and effort to achieve fiscal consolidation.  On the Current Path, foreign aid will decline further to a negligible level by 2043.

Remittances are increasingly becoming an important source of financial flows globally, especially to African countries. Just like many African countries, many Ghanaians have migrated abroad mainly for education and in search of greener pastures. The remittances from these immigrants have become a vital source of inflow to their families. At the macro level, remittances often provide a buffer against economic shocks and contribute to national financial stability.

The cost of sending remittances through formal channels has generally declined over time, supported by the expansion of digital financial services, increased competition among money-transfer operators, and technological improvements in cross-border payment systems. These developments have lowered transaction costs and improved the accessibility and efficiency of remittance transfers. However, the decline has been less pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where remittance costs remain relatively high compared with other developing regions. Limited competition, inadequate financial infrastructure, regulatory barriers, and the high cost of cross-border transactions continue to constrain further reductions in transfer costs. Lowering these costs would increase the share of remittance income received by households and could strengthen the contribution of remittances to consumption, savings, investment, and broader economic development.

In 1990, remittance inflows to Ghana were relatively small, accounting for only 0.1% of GDP, well below the 3.5% average for LMICs in Africa. Since then, remittances have increased substantially, reaching an estimated 2.2% of GDP in 2025. However, this remains below the average of 3.5% for Africa LMICs.

Remittances are mainly sent by Ghanaian migrants to support families and relatives at home, with major source countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, Nigeria, and Côte d'Ivoire. These transfers play an important role in household welfare by helping finance essential expenses such as education, healthcare, housing costs, and general consumption. However, as in many African countries, the high cost of sending money to Ghana can discourage migrants from using formal remittance channels and limit the full developmental impact of these flows.

Under the Current Path scenario, remittances are projected to decrease as a proportion of GDP, falling to 1.4% by 2043. The implementation of the Financial Flows scenario yields only a modest improvement, raising remittance inflows to 1.6% of GDP by 2043, equivalent to an increase of 0.1 percentage points relative to the Current Path forecast.

Chart 26 presents government revenue in the Current Path and in the Financial Flows scenario, from 2020 to 2043. The data is in US$ 2017 and % of GDP. 

Wagner's law, or the law of increasing state activity, states that public expenditure increases as national income rises. In the Financial Flows scenario, it is reasonable to expect that government revenues will increase as a percentage of GDP compared to the Current Path.

Higher external financial inflows in the form of FDI, official ODA, and remittances can strengthen government revenue by stimulating economic activity and expanding the tax base. Increased FDI contributes to higher economic growth, job creation, and business expansion, which generate additional government revenue through corporate income taxes, personal income taxes, royalties, and indirect taxes such as value-added tax (VAT). Similarly, aid and remittance inflows can support consumption, investment, and productivity, further enhancing domestic revenue mobilisation and fiscal capacity.

In 2025, Ghana's total government revenue amounted to 11% of GDP, while domestic revenue excluding aid stood at 9.3% of GDP. The relatively small gap between total revenue and revenue excluding aid indicates a limited dependence on external assistance.

Under the Current Path scenario, total government revenue is projected to increase to 17.9% of GDP by 2043. Revenue excluding aid is also forecast to remain at 17.9% of GDP, suggesting that future revenue growth will be driven primarily by enhanced domestic resource mobilisation rather than external assistance. Under the Financial Flows scenario, government revenue is expected to rise slightly further, reaching 18.2% of GDP by 2043.

Chart 27 presents the Current Path of government effectiveness comparing the country to the average for the African income group, from 2002 to 2043.

The World Bank’s index on government effectiveness captures perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation and the credibility of the government's commitment to such policies.

Good governance is key to economic progress. Greater security and stability at the national level create an enabling environment for domestic and foreign investment. It creates conditions for governments to pursue effective, sustainable development strategies. Good governance and security cut across all sectors; they create incentives and confidence for investment and innovation. Good governance is crucial for the efficient use of public funds for development and improving the well-being of the population.

Ghana is widely regarded as one of the most stable democracies in West Africa and has long been considered an oasis of peace in a region often affected by political instability and violent conflict. Unlike many of its neighbours, Ghana has not experienced civil war, major political crises or direct terrorist attacks. Since the establishment of the Fourth Republic in 1993, Ghana has successfully conducted nine successive presidential and parliamentary elections, several of which have resulted in peaceful alternations of power between the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP). This record has strengthened Ghana's reputation as one of the most stable democracies in Africa.

Ghana’s governance performance is reflected in several international indices. According to the 2023 Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG), Ghana ranked 7th out of 54 African countries, with an overall score of 62.3 out of 100, well above both the continental average of 49.3 and the West African average of 51.3. Similarly, the Economist Intelligence Unit's 2023 Democracy index classified Ghana as a flawed democracy, ranking it 6th in Sub-Saharan Africa and 65th globally, while the 2024 Varieties of Democracy (V-Diem) Liberal Democracy Index ranked the country 5th in Africa and 55th worldwide.

The World Bank's Government Effectiveness Index, which measures perceptions of public service quality, civil service professionalism, policy implementation and government credibility, further highlights Ghana’s relative institutional strength. Measured on a scale from 0 to 5, Ghana scored approximately 2.4 in 2025, ranking 9th among 55 African countries and substantially above the continental average of 1.7. Under the Current Path scenario, the score is projected to increase to 2.9 by 2043, compared with a projected African average of 2.2.

Despite these achievements, several governance challenges persist. The IIAG  reports a notable deterioration in security and the rule of law, with Ghana’s score in this category declining from 69 in 2017 to 60 in 2023. Security concerns have become increasingly prominent, particularly in the northern regions bordering Burkina Faso. The porous nature of this border facilitates the movement of illicit arms and contraband, creating vulnerabilities to the spillover effects of insecurity from the Sahel region. With extremist groups controlling significant portions of Burkina Faso, concerns have grown about the potential spread of violent extremism into northern Ghana.

Domestic factors further compound these risks. Long-standing tensions between ethnic  groups such as the Mamprusi and Kusasi in Bawku have periodically resulted in armed conflict. Combined with limited economic opportunities, poverty and unemployment in northern communities, these local grievances create conditions that extremist groups could exploit for recruitment. The worsening security environment across the Sahel region following the withdrawal of French military forces has further heightened concerns about regional instability spilling over into Ghana.

In response, the government has implemented several preventive measures. These include the "See Something, Say Something" campaign, designed to encourage public reporting of suspicious activities, as well as the deployment of additional military brigades and battalions to strengthen security along the northern frontier. While these initiatives have enhanced border security, analysts caution that a narrow focus on external threats may overlook the internal governance and development challenges that contribute to community vulnerability.

Corruption remains another significant governance challenge. According to the 2025 global Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) by Transparency International, Ghana scored 42 out of 100 and ranked 80^th out of 180 countries surveyed, down from 70^th and a score of 43 in 2023. Lower scores indicate higher perceived corruption, while 100 reflects a very clean public sector. 

Estimates from the Ghana Integrity Initiative estimated that corruption costs the country as much as US$3 billion annually. The 2021 Ghana Integrity of Public Services Survey (GIPSS) reported that approximately GHS5 billion was paid in bribes to public officials during that year alone. Public perceptions of corruption have also worsened significantly. According to the 2022 Afrobarometer Survey, the proportion of Ghanaians who believe corruption has increased rose from 33.2% in 2017 to 77% in 2022.

Efforts to strengthen anti-corruption institutions have yielded mixed results. In 2018, the government established the Office of the Special Prosecutor to investigate and prosecute corruption-related offences. However, institutional and political constraints have limited its effectiveness. The first Special Prosecutor resigned, citing political interference, while his successor has repeatedly raised concerns about inadequate funding, logistics and operational support.

Although Ghana has maintained democratic stability, public confidence in democratic governance has weakened in recent years. According to the 2024 Afrobarometer African Insight report, satisfaction with the functioning of democracy declined from 74% in 2012 to 51% in 2024. More concerning is the increase in public support for military intervention, which rose from 14% to 32% over the same period. This trend suggests growing frustration with governance outcomes and indicates that democratic gains have not fully translated into the expected socioeconomic benefits for many citizens.

Gender inclusion and representation also remain areas requiring significant improvement. While Ghana has made notable progress—including appointing a female Speaker of Parliament, three female Chief Justices, two female Electoral Commission Chairpersons and the nomination of a female vice-presidential candidate by one of the major political parties—women remain underrepresented in political decision-making. Since the establishment of the Fourth Republic, women have consistently occupied less than 15% of parliamentary seats, well below the global benchmark of 30%. Similarly, women have accounted for less than 20% of ministerial appointments and District Chief Executive positions.

To address these disparities, Ghana enacted the Affirmative Action (Gender Equity) Act in July 2024. Originating from policy discussions that began in 2011, the legislation seeks to promote gender parity in political representation, public appointments and decision-making institutions. Effective implementation of the Act will be critical to improving women's participation in governance and strengthening inclusive development.

Overall, Ghana continues to outperform many of its regional and income-group peers in governance, democratic stability and institutional effectiveness. However, rising security threats, persistent corruption, declining public confidence in democratic institutions and gender inequalities highlight the need for continued reforms to sustain and deepen the country's governance gains.

Chart 28 presents the security, capacity and inclusion index for the Current Path versus the Governance scenario, for 2023 and 2043.

In our modelling framework, governance is conceptualised across three dimensions - security, capacity, and inclusion - representing the traditional stages of state formation. Each governance dimension is scored on a scale from zero (poor) to one (excellent). The security dimension evaluates the likelihood of internal conflict and overall risk levels. The capacity dimension encompasses factors such as government revenue, corruption, regulatory quality, economic freedom, and government effectiveness. Finally, the inclusion dimension assesses the extent of democracy and gender empowerment.

Visit the theme on Governance for a full conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

Generally, Ghana performs better on governance indices than most African countries. The composite ‘governance triangle’ in our modelling measures a state’s progress using the average of these three indices. To this end, it includes an index (0 to 1) for each dimension, with higher scores indicating improved outcomes. In 2025, Ghana recorded a composite governance index score of 0.58, outperforming the average for African LMICs by 19% and the continental average by 22%. Governance outcomes are expected to strengthen over the forecast period, with the score rising to 0.65 under the Current Path scenario by 2043. Enhanced governance reforms under the Governance scenario would further improve performance, increasing the score to 0.71 by 2043.

A disaggregation of the index into its three core dimensions - security, capacity and inclusion - reveals that Ghana outperforms its income peers across all three components, underscoring its relatively strong governance performance on the continent. In 2025, Ghana scored 0.80 on the security index, 0.32 on capacity and 0.61 on inclusion. Under the Current Path scenario, these scores are projected to improve by 2043, reaching 0.84 for security, 0.44 for capacity and 0.65 for inclusion. The Governance scenario would accelerate progress across all three dimensions, raising the scores further to 0.92 for security, 0.50 for capacity and 0.70 for inclusion by 2043.