Central Africa

This page provides an overview of the key characteristics of Central Africa along its likely (or Current Path) development trajectory. The Current Path forecast from the International Futures forecasting (IFs) platform is a dynamic scenario that imitates the continuation of current policies and environmental conditions. The Current Path is therefore in congruence with historical patterns and produces a series of dynamic forecasts endogenised in relationships across crucial global systems. We use 2019 as a standard reference year and the forecasts generally extend to 2043 to coincide with the end of the third ten-year implementation plan of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 long-term development vision.

Central Africa is the central subregion of the African continent. According to the African Futures classification, nine territories make up Central Africa: Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo), Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and São Tomé and Príncipe, a small island state. All countries are members of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) which has 11 members in total, the others being Rwanda and Burundi. Cameroon, CAR, Chad, the DR Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon are also members of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) and share a common currency, the Central African CFA Franc.

Central Africa’s economy mostly relies on farming, herding and fishing. Crop production based on rain is feasible only in the southern belt. Flood recession agriculture is a common practice around Lake Chad and in the riverine wetlands. Lake Chad is a freshwater lake located in the Sahelian zone of Central Africa. Lake Chad borders Chad, Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon. The Chad Basin also spreads over Algeria and Libya in North Africa and CAR.[1JA Gritzner, Lake Chad, Britannica.]

In 2019, Central Africa had a population of about 175 million people. It is the region with the smallest population on the continent. Within Central Africa, the DR Congo has the largest population by far at 87 million in 2019. The DR Congo is followed by Angola and Cameroon with populations of 32 million and 26 million people, respectively.

Oil is also a major export of the countries of northern and eastern Central Africa, notably making up a large proportion of the GDPs of Chad and South Sudan.

Central Africa has a young and fast-growing population. Coming from a baseline of about 70.9 million people in 1990, by 2019 its population had increased by 147% to 175 million people. Over the coming two decades, Central Africa’s population is expected to more than double and reach 360.7 million people. Population growth in Central Africa is driven by natural population growth — in other words, births outstripping deaths.

Central Africa’s population is the youngest on the continent. In 2019, 45% of the region’s population was younger than 15 years. Central Africa’s median age is 17.2, followed by West Africa’s at 18.3 and East Africa’s at 18.6 years. Southern Africa and North Africa have median ages of 21.6 and 26.7 years, respectively.

Within Central Africa, Chad, Angola and the DR Congo have the youngest population with median ages below 17 years. Gabon and Equatorial Guinea, on the other end of the spectrum, have median ages of 22.4 and 22.2, respectively.

On the Current Path, Central Africa’s demographic structure is expected to change very slowly. By 2043, only 38% of the population is forecast to be under 15 years old, down by 7 percentage points. In 2019, average total fertility in Central Africa stood at 5.5 births per woman. By 2043, it is expected to drop to 3.8 births per woman. As a consequence, the median age is projected to increase to 20.5 years — still the lowest on the continent.

In 2019, average life expectancy in Central Africa was 62.1 years. By 2043, the average Central African is expected to add more than 6.5 years and live for 68.9 years. Women will have a life expectancy of 70.7 years on average. Within Central Africa, the picture is again very heterogeneous. At 71.2 years, São Tomé and Príncipe has the highest life expectancy in the region, followed by Gabon at 66.9 years. The Central African Republic (CAR) and Chad’s average life expectancy, on the other extreme, are 51.2 and 59.4, respectively.

With 4.8 deaths per 1 000 people in 2019, Central Africa’s communicable-disease burden is the second highest on the continent. Southern Africa, West Africa and East Africa have communicable-disease burdens of 4.5, 5 and 3.2 deaths per 1 000 people, respectively.

By 2034, the death rate for non-communicable diseases will be about the same as for communicable diseases in Central Africa: 2.9 per 1 000 people. In East Africa, this transition is set to happen about 10 years earlier.

A higher life expectancy would boost Central Africa’s workforce. By 2043, the region’s working-age population is expected to account for about 58.1% of the population compared to 52.1% in 2019. Indeed, the ratio of people of working age relative to the dependent population is improving but not fast enough. On the Current Path, Central Africa is not expected to reach the peak of its demographic ‘sweet spot’ within this century.

Central Africa is already relatively urbanised. In 2019, 49.9% of Central Africans lived in cities and towns while 50.1% lived in rural areas. In terms of urbanisation, Central Africa is ahead of West and Southern Africa’s rates that reach 46.6% and 45.7%, respectively, and far ahead of East Africa that is predominantly rural.

On the Current Path, Central Africa is becoming even more urbanised with 58.9% of the population living in cities and towns by 2043 and 41.1% living in rural areas. This is in line with the anticipated ratio for Africa’s low-income economies at 40.7% urban versus 59% rural.

Within Central Africa, rates of urbanisation vary considerably. In six out of nine countries, more than half of the population lives in cities and towns. In Gabon, 92% of the population is urban; in Equatorial Guinea it is 75.5% and in São Tomé and Príncipe 72.7% of the population lives in towns and cities. The three countries that are the least urbanised in Central Africa are Chad (22.9%), CAR (39.8%) and the DR Congo (44.9%).[x]

Central Africa’s population of about 175 million people is unevenly distributed across the countries of the region and within countries as well. In 2019, Central Africa was the least densely populated region on the continent with a density of about 0.27 people per hectare. West Africa has an average population density of 0.78 people per hectare, followed by East Africa with 0.63 people per hectare. Population density in Southern Africa and North Africa is around 0.3 people per hectare. Population growth means that population density in Central Africa is forecast to almost double, reaching 0.53 people per hectare. West Africa will remain the most densely populated region on the continent.

Within Central Africa, the most densely populated country is São Tomé and Príncipe, which is an outlier due to its small land area. It is followed by Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea. CAR and Gabon, on the other hand, are the least densely populated countries in the region.

Between 1990 and 2019, Central Africa’s GDP increased from US$121 billion to US$308.5 billion. In 2019, Central Africa had the lowest GDP on the continent, following East Africa, Southern Africa, West Africa and North Africa with the highest GDP. In 2043, the region is forecast to still have the lowest GDP on the continent at a value of US$984.3 billion, more than three times as large as in 2019. In comparison, East Africa’s economy, coming from a similar baseline of US$352.1 billion in 2019, is forecast to expand by nearly fivefold over the same time period to US$1 812.7 billion.

Within Central Africa, the size of the economies is very heterogeneous. In 2019, Angola, with a GDP of US$138.8 billion, was by far the largest economy accounting for about 45% of the region’s GDP. Angola is followed by Cameroon with a GDP of US$46.3 billion and the DR Congo with a GDP of US$44.9 billion. Together, those three economies accounted for 75% of the regional economy in 2019. São Tomé and Príncipe and Chad, on the other hand, are the region’s smallest economies.

By 2043, the DR Congo’s economy is forecast to be larger than Cameroon’s, but Angola will remain the region’s lead economy at a value of US$443.3 billion.

Despite the anticipated expansion of Central Africa’s economies, growth is constrained by poor infrastructure, unreliable power supply, low agricultural productivity, poor governance, and a lack of market competitiveness.

Although many of the charts in the sectoral scenarios also include GDP per capita, this overview is an essential point of departure for interpreting the general economic outlook of Central Africa.

In 2019, Central Africa’s GDP average per capita was US$2 836. On the Current Path, average per capita income is expected to reach US$4 583 by 2043. The countries of Central Africa fall into three different income categories as defined by the World Bank: Equatorial Guinea and Gabon are upper middle-income economies; Angola, Cameroon, the Republic of the Congo and São Tomé and Príncipe fall into the category of lower middle-income economies; and the Central African Republic (CAR), Chad and the DR Congo are low-income economies.

In 2019, at US$2 836, Central Africa’s GDP per capita was the second lowest and East Africa’s the lowest. North Africa’s was the highest, followed by Southern Africa and West Africa. In 2043, however, East Africa will have a GDP per capita of US$5 206 and overtake Central Africa.

In 2019, Central Africa’s informal sector accounted for approximately 30.8% of GDP, somewhat above the average of 28.5% for sub-Saharan Africa. By 2043, the region’s informal sector will account for 25.8% of GDP, a drop that likely reflects improvements in overall state capacity, including for taxation. Within Central Africa, the DR Congo has the largest informal sector, accounting for 45% of GDP in 2019, followed by CAR with an informal sector that represents 39.8% of GDP. Equatorial Guinea’s informal sector, on the other hand, only accounts for 14.9 % of GDP.

The IFs platform uses data from the Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) to classify economic activity into six sectors: agriculture, energy, materials (including mining), manufacturing, services and information and communication technologies (ICT). Most other sources use a threefold distinction between only agriculture, industry and services with the result that data may differ.

In 2019, Central Africa’s service sector accounted for close to half of the region’s GDP (45.8%), followed by the manufacturing sector and the agriculture sector which represented about 17.4% and 16.6%, respectively. The energy sector only accounted for 11.6% of GDP, and the ICT and materials sectors for 5% and 3% of the country’s GDP. In the future, the weight of the service sector is expected to continue to grow accounting for 50.6% of GDP by 2043. The contribution of the agriculture sector, on the other hand, is forecast to drop to 7.5% of GDP by 2043. At the same time, the share of manufacturing will account for 23.8% in 2043, an increase of more than 6 percentage points. The contribution of ICT to GDP is expected to drop to 6.6%, more or less on par with materials at 6.5%. Energy is set to drop even further accounting for only 5% of GDP.

In 2019, Central Africa’s service sector was worth US$177.3 billion. By 2043, it will be almost six times as large and worth US$1 003.3 billion. The services sector will be followed by the manufacturing sector at a value of US$291.8 billion in 2043, up from US$40.9 billion in 2019.

In 2019, Central Africa had the second smallest service sector in absolute terms and West Africa had the largest. At a volume of US$426.1 billion, West Africa’s service sector was 2.4 times as large as Central Africa’s. However, by 2043 Central Africa’s service sector is forecast to be the second largest on the continent leaving behind both North Africa and Southern Africa.

The data on agricultural production and demand in the IFs forecasting platform initialises from data provided on food balances by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). IFs contains data on numerous types of agriculture but aggregates its forecast into crops, meat and fish, presented in million metric tons. Chart 9 shows agricultural production and demand as a total of all three categories.

In 2019, Central Africa’s agricultural production amounted to about 118.5 million metric tons and short of 19 million metric tons to match demand at 137.5 million metric tons. Going forward, this gap is going to widen. By 2043, it will be as large as 126.1 million metric tons — almost seven times as large as in 2019. Total production will be up to 195.5 million metric tons, and demand will be 321.6 million metric tons.

Central Africa is the smallest agricultural producer on the continent. In 2019, West Africa’s agricultural output was more than three times that of Central Africa’s (380.5 million metric tons). That said, West Africa is set to experience an even greater gap between agricultural production and demand than Central Africa.

In 2019, Central Africa’s largest agricultural producers were the DR Congo at 51.5 million metric tons, followed by Cameroon at 32.3 million metric tons and Angola with an output of 27.1 million metric tons. This means that the DR Congo alone accounts for 40% of total production in Central Africa.

There are numerous methodologies for and approaches to defining poverty. We measure income poverty and use GDP per capita as a proxy. In 2015, the World Bank adopted the measure of US$1.90 per person per day (in 2011 international prices), also used to measure progress towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1 of eradicating extreme poverty. To account for extreme poverty in richer countries occurring at slightly higher levels of income than in poor countries, the World Bank introduced three additional poverty lines in 2017:

• US$3.20 for lower middle-income countries 
• US$5.50 for upper middle-income countries
• US$22.70 for high-income countries

With most of Central Africa’s population living in low-income countries, the US$1.90 benchmark is used to define extreme poverty. In 2019, 54.8% of the population was living below the poverty line, which corresponds to 95.8 million people. In comparison, the average poverty rate for sub-Saharan Africa is 41% — this is more than 10 percentage points lower than for Central Africa. In fact, Central Africa has the highest poverty rate in sub-Saharan Africa, followed by Southern Africa, West Africa, and East Africa with the lowest rate. On the Current Path, the number of Central Africans living in extreme poverty will increase to 120 million people by 2043, and the region’s poverty rate is projected to decline to 37% by then.

Within Central Africa, however, poverty rates vary greatly between countries. In 2019, both the Central African Republic (CAR) and the DR Congo had extremely high shares of the population living in extreme poverty that surpassed 70%. More than 65% of Central Africans that face conditions of extreme poverty live in the DR Congo. Angola and the Republic of the Congo had poverty rates of 45.8% and 42.3%, respectively. On the other extreme of the spectrum, people in the outlier countries Gabon and Equatorial Guinea hardly experienced extreme poverty. By 2043, the DR Congo’s poverty rate is still expected to be 47.4%, corresponding to 81.9 million people. Those will account for more than 68% of Central Africans that live in extreme poverty.

The IFs platform forecasts six types of energy, namely oil, gas, coal, hydro, nuclear and other renewables. To allow comparisons between different types of energy, the data is converted into billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE). The energy contained in a barrel of oil is approximately 5.8 million British thermal units (MBTUs) or 1 700 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy.

In 2019, Central Africa’s total energy production was about 1 058 million barrels of oil. By 2043, it is estimated to increase by more than 50% to 1 613 million barrels. The region’s current energy mix is completely dominated by oil which accounted for 94% of total production in 2019. Gas accounted for 3%, hydro for 2% and coal for 1% of total energy production in 2019.

On the Current Path, oil becomes less dominant although it will still account for 74% of total energy production in 2043. Gas is forecast to become more important accounting for 14% by then and hydro for 6%. Coal, at 1%, will remain of marginal importance to Central Africa’s energy mix. The largest energy producer in Central Africa by far is oil-rich Angola. The country accounts for more than 60% of the region’s total energy production. Angola is followed by the Republic of the Congo and Gabon.

Carbon is released in many ways, but the three most important contributors to greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4). Since each has a different molecular weight, IFs uses carbon. Many other sites and calculations use CO2 equivalent.

In 2019, Central Africa’s carbon emissions stood at 21 million tons of carbon. They are forecast to increase almost fivefold 100 million tons of carbon emissions by 2043. Together with East Africa, Central Africa emits the least carbon into the atmosphere; North Africa and Southern Africa emit the most.

The Stability scenario represents reasonable but ambitious reductions in risk of regime instability and lower levels of internal conflict. Stability is generally a prerequisite for other aspects of development and this would encourage inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and improve business confidence. Better governance through the accountability that follows substantive democracy is modelled separately.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

The Stability scenario reflects significant interventions, including increasing regime stability, lowering levels of internal conflict, improving gender empowerment and addressing high levels of corruption.

In 2019, Central Africa scored 0.6 on the governance security index — the lowest on the continent. East Africa scored 0.67, Southern Africa 0.69 and West Africa scored 0.7. In the Stability scenario, governance security in Central Africa is projected to improve to a score of 0.79 by 2043, still trailing behind the other regions but basically on par with North Africa’s Current Path forecast. The Current Path forecast for Central Africa is 0.66.

Within Central Africa, Gabon, São Tomé and Príncipe and Cameroon are the best performing countries on governance security with scores of 0.79, 0.72 and 0.71, respectively. The conflict-ridden DR Congo and the Central African Republic (CAR) are the worst performers with scores below 0.6 in 2019.

In 2019, Central Africa’s GDP per capita was US$2 836. The Stability scenario can lead to a higher GDP per capita of US$4 784 by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast of US$4 538.

The Stability scenario has the potential to reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty by almost 9.5 million people compared to the Current Path (110.5 million versus 120 million by 2043).

In the Stability scenario, Central Africa’s poverty rate could drop from 54.8% in 2019 to 34.1% in 2043 compared to 37% on the Current Path. In other words, with the interventions included in the Stability scenario, Central Africa could speed up its poverty reduction efforts even if not by a great margin. Obviously, the impact of the intervention will vary greatly across the region with the countries most affected by violent conflict reaping the greatest gains.

This section presents the impact of a Demographic scenario that aims to hasten and increase the demographic dividend through reasonable but ambitious reductions in the communicable-disease burden for children under five, the maternal mortality ratio and increased access to modern contraception. 

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Demographers typically differentiate between a first, second and even a third demographic dividend. We focus here on the contribution of the size of the labour force (between 15 and 64 years of age) relative to dependants (children and the elderly) as part of the first dividend. A window of opportunity opens when the ratio of the working-age population to dependants is equal to or surpasses 1.7.

Increasing access to modern contraception will bring down Central Africa’s total fertility rate more quickly than on the Current Path: from 5.5 births per woman in 2019 to 3.2 in 2043 versus 3.8 births on the Current Path. Lowering the fertility rate more quickly than on the Current Path would slow down Central Africa’s population growth and bring about a somewhat faster change in the population age structure. The latter will result in a more favourable ratio between people of working age and dependants, especially children. Thanks to the interventions in the Demographic scenario, Central Africa has the potential to accelerate its demographic transition by increasing the ratio of workers to dependants from 1.09 in 2019 to 1.4 in 2043, compared to 1.5 on the Current Path.

Within Central Africa, in 2019 the spectrum for total fertility ranges from 5.9 births per woman in the DR Congo to 3.9 births per woman in Gabon. Other than the DR Congo, Chad and Angola also had average total fertility rates surpassing 5.5 births per woman in 2019.

The infant mortality rate is the number of infant deaths per 1 000 live births and is an important marker of the overall quality of the health system in a country.

At 53.1 infant deaths per 1 000 live births, infant mortality in Central Africa is the second highest on the continent after West Africa with a rate of 58.6. Infant mortality in Central Africa has improved significantly since 1990 when it stood at 99.2 deaths per 1 000 live births, and it will continue to improve. By 2043, the region’s infant mortality rate is forecast to drop by more than 50% to 25.3 deaths per 1 000 live births on the Current Path. The interventions in the Demographic scenario could reduce that rate even further to 23.3%. In comparison, the respective rates for West Africa are 32.4 and 25.9 deaths per 1 000 live births, respectively, in 2043.

Within Central Africa, the Central African Republic (CAR) and Chad have the highest infant mortality rates: 81 deaths and 74.3 deaths per 1 000 live births in 2019 compared to 24 deaths per 1 000 live births in São Tomé and Príncipe.

In 2019, Central Africa’s average GDP per capita was US$2 836. By 2043, the Demographic scenario could push it to US$4 673 versus US$4 538 on the Current Path.

Compared to the Current Path, the Demographic scenario could reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty by about 6 million people in 2043. An expected total of 114 million people, or 35.1% of the population, will be living below the poverty line by 2043 compared to 37% on the Current Path.

This section presents reasonable but ambitious improvements in the Health/WaSH scenario, which include reductions in the mortality rate associated with both communicable diseases (e.g. AIDS, diarrhoea, malaria and respiratory infections) and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) (e.g. diabetes), as well as improvements in access to safe water and better sanitation. The acronym WaSH stands for water, sanitation and hygiene.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

The Health/WaSH scenario has the potential to increase life expectancy in Central Africa from 62.1 years in 2019 to 69.7 years in 2043 versus 86.9 years on the Current Path. The male population will benefit from the interventions in the Health/Wash scenario by adding more than 7 years on average. The average life expectancy of the female population will increase by 8 years from 63.4 years to 71.4 years versus 70.7 on the Current Path.

Central Africa has the second lowest life expectancy in Africa after Southern Africa. Of course, the picture varies across countries. In Central Africa, the countries with the highest life expectancy in 2019 were São Tomé and Príncipe and Gabon where people would on average reach 71.2 and 68 years, respectively. At only 51.2 years, the Central African Republic (CAR) is the country with the lowest life expectancy. On the Current Path, life expectancy in CAR will increase to 60.4 years, which is still lower than the current regional average.

The Health/WaSH scenario would have a positive impact on Central Africa’s infant mortality rate. The latter could drop from 53.1 deaths per live births in 2019 to 25.3 deaths in 2043 compared to an expected rate of 28.8 on the Current Path.

The Agriculture scenario represents reasonable but ambitious increases in yields per hectare (reflecting better management and seed and fertiliser technology), increased land under irrigation and reduced loss and waste. Where appropriate, it includes an increase in calorie consumption, reflecting the prioritisation of food self-sufficiency above food exports as a desirable policy objective.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

The data on yield per hectare (in metric tons) is for crops but does not distinguish between different categories of crops.

In 2019, crop yields in Central Africa stood at 3.5 metric tons per hectare. According to the Current Path forecast, by 2043 they will increase to 4.7 metric tons per hectare — an increase of almost more than 33%. In the Agriculture scenario, on the other hand, yields could increase by about 114% over the same time period and reach 7.5 metric tons per hectare by 2043.

Again, the region is very heterogeneous when it comes to agricultural productivity. Crop yields range from 5.8 metric tons per hectare in the Republic of the Congo to 1.2 metric tons per hectare in Chad.

Central Africa performs the second worst on agricultural productivity measured in crop yields per hectare on the continent, preceded by East Africa with 3 metric tons per hectare. North Africa performs the best at 6.5 metric tons per hectare, followed (even though not closely) by Southern Africa at 4.5 metric tons in 2019 and West Africa at 3.9 metric tons per hectare. In the Agriculture scenario, however, Central Africa will come third in terms of productivity, after North Africa and West Africa.

In 2019, net imports accounted for 8.4% of Central Africa’s agricultural demand. On the Current Path, agricultural demand is increasingly outpacing production which will lead to greater import dependence. By 2043, net imports are expected to account for 40% of agricultural demand. The Agriculture scenario has the potential to increase production and reduce import dependence to meet the rapid increase in demand fuelled by population growth. In the scenario, Central Africa could significantly reduce its dependence on imports with imports accounting for only 16.7% of demand.

Within Central Africa, Gabon and São Tomé and Príncipe are the countries that display the highest important dependence; Chad and the DR Congo display the lowest. From an aggregate point of view, in the Agriculture scenario Central Africa is forecast to be the second most import-dependent region on the continent, followed by West Africa and Southern Africa. North Africa is the region with the highest anticipated import dependence by far at 26.5%. Only East Africa could free itself from import dependence and produce above demand.

The Agriculture scenario is expected to push Central Africa’s GDP per capita to US$4 809 by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast of US$4 538.

The impact of the interventions in the Agriculture scenario on poverty in Central Africa is significant. It implies an important reduction in the share of the population living below the poverty line in 2043: 27.8% instead of 37% in the Current Path forecast. The Agriculture scenario has the potential to prevent more than 29.8 million people falling into poverty by 2043 — the anticipated total being 50.1 million people compared to 120 million on the Current Path forecast.

The Education scenario represents reasonable but ambitious improved intake, transition and graduation rates from primary to tertiary levels and better quality of education. It also models substantive progress towards gender parity at all levels, additional vocational training at secondary school level and increases in the share of science and engineering graduates.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Education is key to development but improvements in education typically take a long time to show results. With a mean of 5.3 years of education among the adult population in 2019, Central Africa’s educational outcomes are below the average for sub-Saharan Africa, which is 6 years. Women have on average 4.4 years of education, almost 2 years less than men, which is significant. Through the Education scenario, Central Africa’s mean years of education could increase to 7.1 years in 2043. This represents an improvement of 0.4 years compared to the Current Path forecast of 6.7 years over the same time period. Male education outcomes would still be better than those for female education: 7.7 versus 6.5 mean years of education, respectively, but the gender gap would have reduced.

In 2019, Central Africa’s primary test score was 29.2%, slightly worse than the average score of 30.9% for sub-Saharan Africa. According to the Current Path forecast, Central Africa’s performance will improve to 30.2% in 2043 versus 32.7% for sub-Saharan Africa. The Education scenario is expected to accelerate improvements, pushing average test scores for primary learners in Central Africa to 36% by 2043 — an increase of close to 6 percentage points compared to the Current Path forecast for 2043.

In the Education scenario, the test score at the secondary level could increase by more than 7 percentage points from 37.9% in 2019 to 45.4% in 2043 versus 38% on the Current Path. In both scenarios, Central Africa will perform below the average for sub-Saharan African.

Central Africa’s GDP per capita will increase to US$4 538 on the Current Path versus US$4 706 in the Education scenario, a difference of US$168.

In the Education scenario, it is expected that 34.6% of Central Africa’s population will live in extreme poverty by 2043, down from 54.8% in 2019 and compared to 37% in the Current Path forecast. This translates to a projected total of 112.3 million poor people in 2043 compared to 120 million in the Current Path forecast, or 17.7 million people escaping extreme poverty.

The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario represents reasonable but ambitious manufacturing growth through greater investment in the economy, investments in research and development, and promotion of the export of manufactured goods. It is accompanied by an increase in welfare transfers (social grants) to moderate the initial increases in inequality that are typically associated with a manufacturing transition. To this end, the scenario improves tax administration and increases government revenues.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Chart 30 should be read with Chart 8 that presents a stacked area graph on the contribution to GDP and size, in billion US$, of the Current Path economy for each of the sectors.

In the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario, the service sector will experience the largest gain in terms of its relative contribution to GDP compared to the Current Path. Its contribution is expected to increase by 0.64 percentage points in 2043 after reaching a peak of an additional 0.75 percentage points around 2036. The service sector is followed by the manufacturing sector with an increase of 0.31 percentage points in its relative contribution to GDP. The agriculture sector is forecast to drop the most in relative importance losing 0.59 percentage points relative to the Current Path. The materials and ICT sectors are both set to remain stable, and the energy sector is expected to lose 0.38 percentage points relative to the Current Path.

The value of Central Africa’s service sector could be US$57.1 billion larger in the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario compared to the Current Path. Manufacturing could contribute an extra US$26.9 million in this scenario, followed by ICT and materials with an additional US$6.7 million each. Agriculture, despite adding less value to the overall economy, would still add about US$1.2 billion in absolute terms, and the same rings true for energy at US$0.9 billion.

In the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario, government to household welfare transfers are forecast to increase from US$12.1 billion in 2019 to US$68.4 billion in 2043 versus US$43.9 billion on the Current Path. In other words, social transfers would be more than double the volume of the Current Path forecast.

Central Africa’s GDP per capita is expected to grow to US$4 848 in the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario compared to US$4 538 on the Current Path.

The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario has the potential to reduce the share of the population living in extreme poverty from 54.8% in 2019 to 33.2% in 2043 compared to 37% in the Current Path forecast. This is close to a 4 percentage point improvement that would translate to about 12.7 million people escaping poverty in 2043 via the interventions in the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario.

The Leapfrogging scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious adoption of and investment in renewable energy technologies, resulting in better access to electricity in urban and rural areas. The scenario includes accelerated access to mobile and fixed broadband and the adoption of modern technology that improves government efficiency and allows for the more rapid formalisation of the informal sector.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Fixed broadband includes cable modem Internet connections, DSL Internet connections of at least 256 KB/s, fibre and other fixed broadband technology connections (such as satellite broadband Internet, ethernet local area networks, fixed-wireless access, wireless local area networks, WiMAX, etc.).

In 2019, Central Africa, like most of low-income Africa, had a low fixed broadband rate of 1.7 subscriptions per 100 people. In the Leapfrogging scenario, by 2043, fixed broadband is set to increase to 47.9 subscriptions per 100 people versus only 25.3 subscriptions on the Current Path.

Mobile broadband refers to wireless Internet access delivered through cellular towers to computers and other digital devices.

In 2019, Central Africa had 17.4 mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 people. The Leapfrogging scenario has the potential to push mobile broadband subscriptions to 131.1 subscriptions per 100 people by 2043. However, even on the Current Path the region is expected to reach 129.5 subscriptions by then. The greatest benefit of the interventions of the Leapfrogging scenario plays out in the medium term, between 2024 and 2034, when projected subscriptions are indeed tangibly higher than on the Current Path. In other words, mobile broadband subscriptions in Central Africa will increase rapidly either way but more quickly in the Leapfrogging scenario.

The Central African country with the highest rate of mobile broadband subscriptions is Gabon with 111.3 subscriptions per 100 people in 2019. Equatorial Guinea, on the other hand, has the lowest rate: only 6.6 subscriptions per 100 people. Differences between countries are still pronounced but they are progressively disappearing.

Access to electricity remains a key challenge for Central Africa, which has the lowest access rates on the continent. In 2019, only 33.3% of the population had access to electricity. In East Africa, the region with the second lowest access rate in 2019, 43.5% of the population had access to electricity. On the Current Path, 57.2% of Central Africa’s population will have access to electricity in 2043 (compared to 76.2% in East Africa). This means that Central Africa as a region will spectacularly miss the SDG target of universal electricity access (98%) by 2030 (Indicator 7.1.1).

In the Leapfrogging scenario, access to electricity is projected to expand faster, providing access to 66.4% of the population by 2043.

In the Leapfrogging scenario, Central Africa’s GDP per capita is expected to experience a larger increase than on the Current Path: from US$2 836 in 2019 to US$4 808 in 2043, compared to US$4 583.

The interventions in the Leapfrogging scenario are projected to benefit poverty reduction efforts in Central Africa. The share of the population living below the poverty line could drop from 54.8% to 33.6% by 2043 compared to 37% on the Current Path trajectory. When assessing absolute numbers, the Leapfrogging scenario would reduce the number of people living in poverty to 109 million versus the projected 120 million in the Current Path forecast. In other words, 11 million people would escape poverty in the Leapfrogging scenario.

The Free Trade scenario represents the impact of the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by 2034 through increases in exports, improved productivity and increased trade and economic freedom.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website. 

The trade balance is the difference between the value of a country's exports and its imports. A country that imports more goods and services than it exports in terms of value has a trade deficit, while a country that exports more goods and services than it imports has a trade surplus.

In 2019, Central Africa had a trade deficit that accounted for 3.5% of GDP. In the Free Trade scenario, the region’s trade balance is set to improve with the deficit accounting for 3.4% of GDP by 2033 versus 5.5% on the Current Path before the deficit starts growing again arriving at 4.3% in 2043 versus 1.7 on the Current Path. Essentially, in any case, Central Africa is expected to have a negative trade balance by 2043, but in the Free Trade scenario the deficit would be higher than on the Current Path.

However, the implementation of the AfCFTA in the Free Trade scenario would improve the short- and medium-term trade deficit for Central Africa compared to the Current Path scenario.

In 2019, Gabon was the only country in Central Africa with a positive trade balance (5.2% of GDP). The Central African Republic (CAR) and São Tomé and Príncipe had the largest trade deficits in the region, both close to 30% of GDP.

In the Free Trade scenario, Central Africa’s GDP per capita is expected to experience the largest increase among the sectoral scenarios: from US$2 836 in 2019 to US$4 974 in 2043, versus US$4 538 on the Current Path.

Trade openness will reduce poverty in the long term after initially increasing it due to the redistributive effects of trade. Most African countries export primary commodities and low-tech manufacturing products, and therefore a continental free trade agreement (AfCFTA) that reduces tariffs and non-tariff barriers across Africa will increase competition among countries in primary commodities and low-tech manufacturing exports. Countries with inefficient, high-cost manufacturing sectors might be displaced as the AfCFTA is implemented, thereby pushing up poverty rates. In the long term, as the economy adjusts and produces and exports its comparatively advantaged (lower relative cost) goods and services, poverty rates will decline.

In the Free Trade scenario, extreme poverty in Central Africa is expected to decrease more rapidly than on the Current Path. By 2043, 29.1% of people are forecast to live in extreme poverty in the Free Trade scenario compared to 37% in the Current Path forecast. The difference translates into close to 25.6 million people that would be able to escape poverty in the Free Trade scenario.

The Financial Flows scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious increase in worker remittances and aid flows to poor countries, and an increase in the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) and additional portfolio investment inflows to middle-income countries. We also reduced outward financial flows to emulate a reduction in illicit financial outflows.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

In 2019, foreign aid accounted for 3% of Central Africa’s GDP, in line with the average economy in sub-Saharan Africa. In both the Current Path forecast and the Financial Flows scenario, the contribution of foreign aid to Central Africa’s economy is projected to become less significant by 2043, dropping to 1.6% of GDP in the Financial Flows scenario and to 1.5% on the Current Path. Again, this is in line with the expected average for sub-Saharan Africa.

FDI flows to Central Africa accounted for about 2.9% of GDP in 2019 versus the average of 2.7% for sub-Saharan Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic meant a drastic drop in FDI inflows to Central Africa down to 1% of GDP in 2020. In the Financial Flows scenario, FDI as a share of GDP is projected to recover and surpass pre-pandemic levels. By 2043, flows are set to account for 6.2% of Central Africa’s GDP compared to 5.6% in the Current Path forecast. The countries in which FDI inflows are forecast to account for the highest share of GDP are the Republic of the Congo at 14.1%, Equatorial Guinea at 12.9% and São Tomé and Príncipe at 11.7% of GDP. In Cameroon and the Central African Republic (CAR), on the other hand, FDI is expected to only account for 2.7% and 3.7%, respectively.

In 2019, remittances accounted for −0.8% of Central Africa’s GDP. In other words, Central Africa is a net sender of remittances or received less remittances than it sent abroad. On the Current Path, remittances will account for −1% of the region’s GDP by 2043. The Financial Flows scenario is not forecast to change this. In absolute terms, the balance of remittances sent versus received would amount to US$-10.2 billion on the Current Path and US$−10.1 billion in the Financial Flows scenario, down from US$−2.5 billion in 2019. São Tomé and Príncipe is an outlier as remittances in 2019 accounted for about 6.3% of GDP, and in the Financial Flows scenario, they are forecast to represent 4.7% of GDP. Cameroon is a net receiver of remittances as well but on a lower level. In 2019, remittances accounted for 0.3% of its GDP, a figure that is set to remain unchanged in the Financial Flows scenario.

In the Financial Flows scenario, Central Africa’s GDP per capita is expected to gain US$80 more than on the Current Path reaching US$4 618.

The interventions in the Financial Flows scenario would only modestly reduce the share of Central Africa’s population living in extreme poverty to 36% by 2043 compared to 37% in the Current Path forecast. In absolute terms, this makes almost no difference as 120 million people are forecast to live below the poverty line in 2043.

The Infrastructure scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious increase in infrastructure spending across Africa, focusing on basic infrastructure (roads, water, sanitation, electricity access and ICT) in low-income countries and increasing emphasis on advanced infrastructure (such as ports, airports, railway and electricity generation) in higher-income countries.

Note that health and sanitation infrastructure is included as part of the Health/WaSH scenario and that ICT infrastructure and more rapid uptake of renewables are part of the Leapfrogging scenario. The interventions there push directly on outcomes, whereas those modelled in this scenario increase infrastructure spending, indirectly boosting other forms of infrastructure, including those supporting health, sanitation and ICT. 

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

In 2019, only 58.3 million people in Central Africa had access to electricity, accounting for about 33.3% of the population. In urban areas, the access rate was 57.4% — more than seven times as high as in rural areas (7.8%). The interventions in the Infrastructure scenario have the potential to increase Central Africa’s overall electricity access rate to 61% by 2043 compared to 57.2% on the Current Path. This means that about 13.1 million more people could benefit from access to electricity by 2043.

Rural areas would benefit more from the interventions in the Infrastructure scenario than urban areas because they are coming from an even lower baseline. Access rates in rural areas would increase from 7.8% in 2019 to 35.8% by 2043 compared to 30.2% on the Current Path. In urban areas, the Infrastructure scenario accounts for an additional improvement of about 2.8 percentage points pushing the expected access rate to 79.8%.

The differences between countries in Central Africa are stark. They range from near universal access to electricity (92%) in Gabon and 68.2% in São Tomé and Príncipe to only 9.7% of the population having access to electricity in Chad and 21.7% in the DR Congo.

Indicator 9.1.1 in the Sustainable Development Goals refers to the proportion of the rural population who live within 2 km of an all-season road and is captured in the Rural Access Index.

Investments in rural road infrastructure typically have positive socio-economic impacts, such as increased rural incomes and poverty reduction, improved maternal and paediatric health outcomes and heightened agricultural productivity. In 2019, 32.9% of Central Africa’s rural population had access to an all-weather road within a distance of 2 km. This is about 17 percentage points below the average access rate in sub-Saharan Africa and 16 percentage points below the average access rate for West Africa. In the Infrastructure scenario, it is projected that 39.5% of Central Africa’s rural population will have access to an all-weather road within a distance of 2 km compared to 38.4% in the Current Path forecast.

Within sub-Saharan Africa, Central Africa is the region with the worst rural road infrastructure by far.

Improvements included in the Infrastructure scenario are expected to push GDP per capita from US$2 836 in 2019 to US$4 722 in 2043, US$184 above the Current Path forecast.

In the Infrastructure scenario, the share of Central Africans living in extreme poverty is expected to drop from 54.8% in 2019 to 35.4% in 2043 versus 37% on the Current Path. It means that 5.2 million people could escape poverty over the coming two decades via the interventions in the Infrastructure scenario.

The Governance scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious improvement in accountability and reduces corruption, and hence improves the quality of service delivery by government.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

As defined by the World Bank, government effectiveness ‘captures perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government’s commitment to such policies’.

Chart 51 presents the impact of the interventions in the Governance scenario on government effectiveness.

Central Africa’s average score of 1.3 on the government effectiveness index in 2019 is the lowest of all regions on the continent. On the Current Path, Central Africa’s government effectiveness quality score is projected to improve to 1.88 and in the Governance scenario to 2 by 2043.

Country performances vary across Central Africa. Gabon and São Tomé and Príncipe are the frontrunners with approximate scores of 1.8 in 2019. On the other end of the spectrum, the DR Congo and the Central African Republic (CAR) have scores of 0.9 and 0.8, respectively. The Governance scenario could improve governance in the DR Congo to a level that could compete with Angola or Cameroon in 2019.

On the Current Path, GDP per capita is expected to increase to US$4 538 while the interventions in the Governance scenario have the potential to increase GDP per capita from US$2 836 in 2019 to US$4 694 in 2043.

In the Governance scenario, Central Africa could reduce the share of the population living below the poverty line to 35.3% by 2043 compared to 37% on the Current Path. The interventions in the Governance scenario could prevent about 5.4 million people in Central Africa from living in extreme poverty in 2043.

This section presents projections for carbon emissions in the Current Path for Central Africa and the 11 scenarios. Note that IFs uses carbon equivalents rather than CO2 equivalents.

Central Africa’s carbon emissions are projected to increase the most in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario which combines all the sectoral scenarios. According to the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, by 2043 Central Africa is projected to emit 140 million tons of carbon, more than six times the 2019 level of emissions (21 million tons) and 40 million tons more than on the Current Path. The greater increase in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is the result of higher economic growth which leads to greater demand for energy. Among the sectoral interventions, it is the Free Trade, the Stability and the Leapfrogging scenarios that are expected to have the biggest impact on carbon emissions by 2043, resulting in additional emissions of 8 million, 4 million and 3 million tons, respectively.