Burkina Faso

This page provides an overview of the key characteristics of Burkina Faso along its likely (or Current Path) development trajectory. The Current Path forecast from the International Futures forecasting (IFs) platform is a dynamic scenario that imitates continuing current policies and environmental conditions. The Current Path is, therefore, in congruence with historical patterns and produces a series of dynamic forecasts endogenised in relationships across crucial global systems. We use 2019 as a standard reference year, and the estimates generally extend to 2043 to coincide with the end of the third ten-year implementation plan of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 long-term development vision.

Burkina Faso is a landlocked country in West Africa with a land area of 274 200 km2. It lies between the Sahara desert and the Gulf of Guinea, south of the loop of the Niger River. Burkina Faso borders Mali to the northwest, Niger to the northeast, Benin to the southeast, Togo and Ghana to the south, and Côte d’Ivoire to the southwest.

In 2019, Burkina Faso had a population of about 20.3 million, making it the fifth-largest country in West Africa. Its capital and largest city is Ouagadougou, with an estimated population of 2.5 million in 2019. The country’s economy is based primarily on subsistence farming and livestock raising. Highly variable rainfall, poor soil, and the lack of adequate communications and other infrastructure are longstanding problems.

In 1896, Burkina Faso was colonised by the French as part of French West Africa and gained independence in 1960. The country’s post-colonial history was characterised by several coups (in 1966, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1987) and coup attempts (in 1989, 2015, and recently in 2022). Thomas Sankara ruled the country from 1982 until he was killed in the 1987 coup led by Blaise Compaoré, who became president and ruled until his removal on 31 October 2014. On 23 January 2022, a military coup led by Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba ousted then president Kaboré. On 31 January 2022, the military junta restored the constitution and appointed Damiba president. However, in September 2022, military leaders headed by Captain Ibrahim Traoure seized power, vowing to improve security after years of attacks by groups affiliated with al-Qaida and Islamic State groups. Subsequently, relations with France deteriorated, and the country left the G5 anti-jihadi force created by several countries in the Sahel and ECOWAS to join the Alliance for Sahel States (AES). Constitutionally, Burkina Faso is governed as a semi-presidential republic with executive, legislative and judicial powers.

According to the World Bank’s income classification, Burkina Faso is a low-income country. The country is a member of the United Nations, the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the Community of Sahel-Saharan States. Burkina Faso was suspended from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union after the 2022 military coup and subsequently announced that it would establish a confederation with Mali and Niger.

Burkina Faso has a young and fast-growing population. Coming from a baseline of about 8.8 million people in 1990, by 2019 its population had more than doubled to 20.3 million people. Over the coming two decades, the country’s population is expected to grow significantly and reach 37.31 million people by 2043. In 2019, the population growth rate stood at 2.85% — the seventh highest in West Africa, although significantly lower than neighbouring Niger’s or Mali’s at about 3.9%. Population growth in Burkina Faso is driven by natural population growth. In other words, births are outstripping deaths.

Burkina Faso’s population is young. In 2019, 44.2% of it was younger than 15 years old. The country’s median age is 17.5 years which is roughly in line with the average median age of 17.9 years for the group of Africa’s low-income economies. On the Current Path, Burkina Faso’s demographic structure is expected to change only slowly. Historically, the country’s fertility rate has been high. In 2019, it stood at an average of 5.2 births per woman, among the highest globally and above the average of 4.96 for its low-income peer group. By 2043, Burkina Faso’s fertility rate is expected to drop to 3.5 births per woman. As a consequence, the median age is projected to increase to 21.8 years, still the 14th lowest globally and the tenth lowest among Africa’s 23 low-income economies.

In 2019, the country’s average life expectancy was 62.3 years. On average, women reach 63.6 and men 62.3 years of age. The country’s low life expectancy stems from a high disease burden, driven to a large extent by low access to safe water and improved sanitation. With a death rate of 4.7 deaths per 1 000 people, Burkina Faso’s communicable-disease burden is higher than the average rate of its income peer group which stands at 4.1.

On the Current Path and over the coming two decades, the average citizen of Burkina Faso can expect to add close to 8 years to their life expectancy and live to 70.3 years — just slightly less than the average 70.8 years for Africa’s low-income economies. A higher life expectancy would be a boost to Burkina Faso’s workforce. By 2043, the country’s working-age population is expected to account for about 60% of the population compared to 53.3 in 2019. Indeed, the ratio of people of working age relative to the dependant population is improving but not fast enough.

Burkina Faso is a latecomer to the global trend of urbanisation. In 2019, more than two-thirds (70.3%) of the country’s population lived in rural areas, and less than one-third (29.7%) of the population lived in urban areas. Burkina Faso is on par with the average for Africa’s low-income countries with a rural–urban split of 69.1% versus 31% in 2019. On the Current Path, Burkina Faso’s rate of urbanisation is expected to increase to 43.1% by 2043. The population living in rural areas will account for 56.9% of the overall population. The anticipated ratio for Africa’s low-income economies is 40.7% urban versus 59.3% rural.

Burkina Faso’s population of about 20.3 million people is concentrated in the south-west and the centre of the country. At 0.741 people per hectare, overall population density is high compared to the average for Africa and Africa’s low-income countries. The high densities in the centre and south-east areas paired with difficult economic conditions as well as frequent droughts cause significant migratory flows to Ivory Coast and Ghana for seasonal agricultural work.

Burkina Faso’s capital and largest city is Ouagadougou, which is located on the central plateau, followed by Bobo Dioulasso in the west. Bobo Dioulasso used to be the economic and business capital of the country before the railroad to the port of Abidjan in Côte d’Ivoire was extended to Ouagadougou. Burkina Faso is divided into 13 administrative regions that are administered by one governor each. The regions include 45 provinces and 301 departments.

Burkina Faso’s people belong to two major West African cultural groups: the Gur (Voltaic) and the Mandé. The Voltaic are in the majority and include the Mossi, who make up about 50% of the population.

Between 1990 and 2019, Burkina Faso’s GDP increased more than fourfold from US$4.13 billion in 1990 to US$20.4 billion in 2019. The country ranks sixth out of 23 African low-income economies with Sudan and Ethiopia being the lead economies. In 2043, Burkina Faso’s GDP is forecast to be US$76.5 billion, 3.75 times as large as in 2019. In other words, the economy is expected to expand, but with projected average annual growth rates around 6% over the coming two decades, such expansion is insufficient to allow for significant progress in human development.

Burkina Faso’s economy is primarily based on subsistence farming and livestock raising. The country is severely affected by desertification and soil degradation.

Although many of the charts in the sectoral scenarios also include GDP per capita, this overview is an essential point of departure for interpreting the general economic outlook of Burkina Faso.

In 2019, Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita ranked eighth among low-income African countries. The country’s per capita income of US$1 972 in 2019 was US$312 above the average per capita income of its low-income peers. On the Current Path, the country’s per capita income is expected to increase to US$3 640 per capita by 2043, US$150 below the average for low-income Africa and falling to 11th position among its peer group.

In 2019, Burkina Faso’s informal sector accounted for approximately 33.2% of GDP compared to an average share of 30.1% in Africa’s low-income economies. By 2043, Burkina Faso’s informal sector will decline, reflecting improvements in overall state capacity, including for taxation. However, the contribution of the country’s informal sector to its economy will remain significantly high at 28.9% by 2043, higher than the average for Africa and Africa’s low-income economies.

The IFs platform uses data from the Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) to classify economic activity into six sectors: agriculture, energy, materials (including mining), manufacturing, service and information and communication technologies (ICT). Most other sources use a threefold distinction between only agriculture, industry and services with the result that data may differ.

In 2019, Burkina Faso’s service sector accounted for half of the country’s GDP, followed by the agriculture sector, which represented about 26.2%. In the future, the service sector is expected to remain the most important contributor to Burkina Faso’s GDP — its share is set to grow to 56.3% by 2043. At the same time, the contribution of the agriculture sector is forecast to shrink to 9.4%. The manufacturing sector, on the other hand, at 14.54%, currently the third largest contributor to Burkina Faso’s GDP, is forecast to increase by more than 8 percentage points to 22.9% in 2043.

Burkina Faso’s expected trajectory roughly mirrors that of its low-income peers with the service sector representing both the current and future lion’s share of contribution to GDP, followed by agriculture and manufacturing sectors, which are respectively expected to lose and gain ground. This growth in the secondary sectors indicates a transition of the economy that could open up more employment opportunities.

The data on agricultural production and demand in the IFs forecasting platform initialises from data provided on food balances by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). IFs contains data on numerous types of agriculture but aggregates its forecast into crops, meat and fish, presented in million metric tons. Chart 9 shows agricultural production and demand as a total of all three categories.

At 2.1 million metric tons per hectare in 2019, Burkina Faso’s crop yield is lower than the average of Africa’s low-income economies that stood at 2.7 million metric tons per hectare. Rwanda, the frontrunner in this category, has a crop yield of 8.3 million metric tons per hectare, followed by Malawi with a yield of 7.2 million metric tons per hectare. By 2043, Burkina Faso’s crop yield is expected to increase to 2.7 million metric tons per hectare.

The lion’s share of Burkina Faso’s agricultural output is crops — mainly subsistence foodstuffs, with the surplus being sold as cash crops. Surplus cotton, shea nuts, sesame and sugarcane are exported, while sorghum, millet, corn (maize), peanuts (groundnuts) and rice are grown for local consumption. In 2019, the country’s crop production amounted to about 11.9 million metric tons compared to the average output of 13.8 million metric tons of its low-income peer group. This gap is projected to widen by 2043 with Burkina Faso expected to increase its output to 15.5 million metric tons versus the group’s average output reaching 20.05 million metric tons.

More importantly, already at present, Burkina Faso’s agricultural production does not meet demand. In 2019, the gap between production and demand amounted to almost 1 million (0.96) metric tons. By 2043, this gap is expected to be more than 10 times as big standing at 9.92 million metric tons. Fast population growth is rapidly fuelling agricultural demand. In combination with low productivity, competition over scarce resources is resulting in insecurity, as well as environmental degradation and high exposure to climate change related risks, food insecurity is a significant growing risk.

There are numerous methodologies for and approaches to defining poverty. We measure income poverty and use GDP per capita as a proxy. In 2015, the World Bank adopted the measure of US$1.90 per person per day (in 2011 international prices), also used to measure progress towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1 of eradicating extreme poverty. To account for extreme poverty in richer countries occurring at slightly higher levels of income than in poor countries, the World Bank introduced three additional poverty lines in 2017:

• US$3.20 for lower middle-income countries
• US$5.50 for upper middle-income countries
• US$22.70 for high-income countries.

As a low-income country, Burkina Faso uses the US$1.90 benchmark to define extreme poverty. The country’s poverty burden is high. In 2019, 37% of the population, which corresponds to 7.5 million people, was living below the poverty line. However, Burkina Faso’s poverty rate lies more than 10 percentage points below the average of its low-income African peers at 47.75%.

In 2019, Burkina Faso had the fifth lowest poverty rate among Africa’s low-income economies. The COVID-19 pandemic impacted food prices and worsened living conditions resulting in a significant increase in poverty. By 2043, in the Current Path forecast the country's position is expected to drop by 5 ranks. The number of people living in extreme poverty will increase to 7.71 million people by 2043, owing to the large population increase forecast for Burkina Faso.

The country’s poverty rate is projected to decline to 20.7% by 2043 — a solid reduction by about 16.3%, although a bit slower than the average rate of reduction in Africa’s low-income economies which will be 22.6%.

The IFs platform forecasts six types of energy, namely oil, gas, coal, hydro, nuclear and other renewables. To allow comparisons between different types of energy, the data is converted into billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE). The energy contained in a barrel of oil is approximately 5.8 million British thermal units (MBTUs) or 1 700 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy.

In 2019, Burkina Faso’s total energy production was 13 million barrels of oil equivalent. By 2043, it is estimated to increase to 20 million barrels. The country’s current energy mix is heavily reliant on gas, which accounted for over 80% of total production in 2019, followed by hydro at 10% and other renewables at 7%.

The Current Path forecast bodes for a gradual transition towards less gas and more renewables in Burkina Faso’s energy mix in the future. Hydro is set to remain more or less stable. By 2043, other renewables are expected to account for 78% of total energy production. Gas is set to drop to represent 15% of total production with the share of hydro accounting for about 6%. The anticipated share of other renewables in Burkina Faso’s energy production profile by far exceeds the average of 39% that is expected for Africa’s low-income economies. This can be explained by Burkina Faso’s significant renewable energy resources (mostly solar and wind) that can be exploited to power the growing economy.

Carbon is released in many ways, but the three most important contributors to greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4). Since each has a different molecular weight, IFs uses carbon. Many other sites and calculations use CO2 equivalent.

Burkina Faso’s carbon emissions at 1.4 million tons of carbon in 2019 make the country a low emitter. Carbon emissions are forecast to increase almost sixfold to 8 million tons of carbon by 2043, in line with a growing economy forecasted for the country.

The Stability scenario represents reasonable but ambitious reductions in risk of regime instability and lower levels of internal conflict. Stability is generally a prerequisite for other aspects of development and this would encourage inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and improve business confidence. Better governance through the accountability that follows substantive democracy is modelled separately.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

The Stability scenario reflects significant interventions, including increasing regime stability, lowering levels of internal conflict, improving gender empowerment and addressing high levels of corruption, all of which can benefit the country substantially.

In 2019, Burkina Faso scored 0.72 on the governance security index — higher than the average score of 0.641 for its low-income peer group but still a reflection of the country’s underperformance. With a score of 0.76, Rwanda is the group’s best performer. The broader Sahel crisis has been destabilising Burkina Faso for more than a decade. The country has been severely affected by the rise of Islamist terror with several militias, partly allied with Islamic State or al-Qaeda, operating across the borders to Mali and Niger. According to the UN, the number of internally displaced people rose to over 1.5 million in 2021, a 50% increase compared to the 2020.

Similar to its neighbours Mali and Niger, Burkina Faso faces several security challenges. These include the Boko Haram insurgency in the Lake Chad Basin, the Sahelian insurgency led by The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) in northern Tillabéri, and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat Al Islam (JNIM) activity in south-western Tillabéri. According to an ACLED report, more recently, ‘Burkina Faso has become the epicentre of the regional conflict’ and has replaced Mali.

In the Stability scenario, governance security in Burkina Faso is projected to improve by 11% in 2043 compared to Current Path forecast. By then, its income peer group on the continent is projected to score higher.

In 2019, Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita was US$1 972. Given high levels of insecurity in the country, it is not surprising that the Stability scenario can make a significant difference by increasing GDP per capita to US$3 781 by 2043. The Stability scenario adds a 4% improvement (US$141) above the Current Path’s US$3 640 forecast for 2043. Still, Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita is projected to lag behind the average of its low-income peers at US$3 790 in 2043 in the same scenario. The GDP per capita of the continent’s low-income economies is projected to have grown to US$3 975 by 2043 in the Stability scenario.

The Stability scenario has the potential to reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty from 7.5 million in 2019 to 7.17 million people in 2043 — a difference of about 330 000 people compared to the Current Path forecast of 7.71 million people.

In the Stability scenario, Burkina Faso’s poverty rate could drop from 37% in 2019 to 19.2% in 2043 compared to 20.7% in the Current Path forecast. In other words, with the interventions included in the Stability scenario, Burkina Faso could speed up its poverty reduction efforts albeit remaining significantly above the desired levels.

This section presents the impact of a Demographic scenario that aims to hasten and increase the demographic dividend through reasonable but ambitious reductions in the communicable-disease burden for children under five, the maternal mortality ratio and increased access to modern contraception. 

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Demographers typically differentiate between a first, second and even a third demographic dividend. We focus here on the contribution of the size of the labour force (between 15 and 64 years of age) relative to dependants (children and the elderly) as part of the first dividend. A window of opportunity opens when the ratio of the working-age population to dependants is equal to or surpasses 1.7.

Increasing access to modern contraception will bring down Burkina Faso’s total fertility rate more quickly than on the Current Path — from 5.17 in 2019 to 2.9 births per woman in 2043 versus 3.5 births on the Current Path. In the Current Path forecast, it would take the country almost another decade to get there. A lower total fertility rate would slow down Burkina Faso’s population growth and bring about a somewhat faster change in the population age structure. The latter will result in a more favourable ratio between people of working age and dependants, especially children.

In the interventions in the Demographic scenario, Burkina Faso has the potential to accelerate its demographic transition by increasing the ratio between workers and dependants from 1.142 in 2019 to 1.7 in 2043, compared to 1.5 on the Current Path, accelerating the transition by nearly a decade. In contrast, Africa’s low-income economies would on average get there by 2042 already (from 1.53 in 2019 to 1.74 in 2043).

The infant mortality rate is the number of infant deaths per 1 000 live births and is an important marker of the overall quality of the health system in a country.

Burkina Faso has made great strides in reducing the number of infant deaths. In 1990, infant deaths per 1 000 live births stood at 108.6 and by 2019 had dropped to 55.2. Yet, Burkina Faso is outperformed by its African low-income peer group with an average of 48.5 infant deaths per 1 000 live births. The Demographic scenario could reduce the country’s infant mortality rate to 19.3 deaths per 1 000 live births by 2043 compared to 24.7 deaths in the Current Path. In the same scenario, the average low-income country in Africa would achieve a rate of 16.9 by 2043.

In 2019, Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita was US$1 972, above the US$1 660 average for low-income Africa. By 2043, the Demographic scenario could push it to US$3 753 versus US$3 640 in the Current Path. Regardless, the gap between Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita and the expected average GDP per capita of its low-income peer group is set to remain in place. The latter is expected to have an average GDP per capita of US$3 925 in 2043 in the Demographic scenario.

Compared to the Current Path, the Demographic scenario could reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty by 800 000 in 2043. In 2043, 6.9 million people, or 19.3% of the population, will be living below the poverty line compared to 20.7% in the Current Path forecast. Burkina Faso will continue to perform better compared to the average of its low-income peers. On average, the group of Africa’s low-income economies is projected to have a poverty rate of 23.7% in the Demographic scenario.

This section presents reasonable but ambitious improvements in the Health/WaSH scenario, which include reductions in the mortality rate associated with both communicable diseases (e.g. AIDS, diarrhoea, malaria and respiratory infections) and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) (e.g. diabetes), as well as improvements in access to safe water and better sanitation. The acronym WaSH stands for water, sanitation and hygiene.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

The Health/WaSH scenario has the potential to increase life expectancy in Burkina Faso from 62.3 years in 2019 to 71.2 years in 2043 versus 70.3 years on the Current Path. The country would especially benefit from the interventions in the medium term. By 2032, the difference in the gain in life expectancy between the Current Path forecast and the Health/WaSH scenario surpasses a year. Burkina Faso performs worse on life expectancy than the average African low-income economy with a baseline of 63.8 years that is projected to increase to 70.85 years on the Current Path and to 71.4 years in the Health/WaSH scenario.

The Health/WaSH scenario would have a positive impact on Burkina Faso’s infant mortality rate. The latter could drop from 55.2 in 2019 to 21 deaths per 1 000 live births in 2043 compared to an expected rate of 24.6 on the Current Path forecast. Burkina Faso performs somewhat worse than the average low-income economy in Africa expected to record an infant mortality rate of 21.3 deaths per 1 000 live births in 2043 on the Current Path and of 18.9 in the Health/WaSH scenario.

The Agriculture scenario represents reasonable but ambitious increases in yields per hectare (reflecting better management and seed and fertiliser technology), increased land under irrigation and reduced loss and waste. Where appropriate, it includes an increase in calorie consumption, reflecting the prioritisation of food self-sufficiency above food exports as a desirable policy objective.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

The data on yield per hectare (in metric tons) is for crops but does not distinguish between different categories of crops.

In 2019, crop yields in Burkina Faso stood at 2.1 metric tons per hectare, which is below the average of 2.7 metric tons per hectare for its low-income peers on the continent. According to the Current Path forecast, by 2043 yields in Burkina Faso will increase modestly to 2.7 metric tons per hectare — an increase of about 29%. In the Agriculture scenario, on the other hand, yields could increase by almost 150% over the same time period and amount to 5.2 metric tons per hectare.

In 2019, net agricultural imports accounted for 7.5% of the country’s demand. On the Current Path, agricultural demand increasingly outpaces production, which will lead to greater import dependence. By 2043, net agricultural imports are expected to account for 35.9% of agricultural demand. The Agriculture scenario has the potential to increase production to meet the rapid increase in demand fuelled by population growth. From 2031 onwards, import dependence would be negative meaning that Burkina Faso could produce more than enough food to meet domestic demand and potentially export the production surplus. By 2043, the interventions proposed in the Agriculture scenario can result in a 12.4% crop surplus.

The Agriculture scenario is expected to push Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita to US$4 096 by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast of US$3 640, a significant 12% boost (US$436). With this boost, Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita is projected to match the average GDP per capita of its low-income peer economies set to reach US$4 094 in the Agriculture scenario.

The interventions proposed in the Agriculture scenario can have a significant impact on poverty reduction in Burkina Faso. The impact stems from the large dependency on the agriculture sector and improvements in yields and food security can benefit the large subsistence population. By 2043, poverty can be reduced to 12.7% of the population (4.7 million people) compared to 20.7% in the Current Path forecast. The Agriculture scenario has the potential to lift an additional 3 million people out of poverty by 2043.

The Education scenario represents reasonable but ambitious improved intake, transition and graduation rates from primary to tertiary levels and better quality of education. It also models substantive progress towards gender parity at all levels, additional vocational training at secondary school level and increases in the share of science and engineering graduates.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

With a mean of 3.7 years of education among the adult population in 2019, Burkina Faso’s educational outcomes are very poor; and at 3 years, educational outcomes for girls are even worse. Boys have a score of 4.3. The Education scenario has the potential to increase Burkina Faso’s mean years of education to 5.7 years by 2043. This represents an improvement of 0.4 years compared to the Current Path forecast of 5.3 years in 2043. Female education outcomes would still lag behind those for males (5.9 years versus 5.5 years, respectively). Globally, Burkina Faso ranks fifth lowest in terms of educational performance measured in mean years of education. Only Niger, Mali, Chad and Mozambique have even worse educational outcomes. The mean for the African low-income group is 4.4 years of education in 2019. By 2043, this will increase to 6.1 years on the Current Path and to 6.6 years in the Education scenario.

In 2019, Burkina Faso’s primary test score was 21.9%. According to the Current Path forecast, it will improve to 26.4% in 2043. The Education scenario is expected to accelerate improvements, pushing average test scores for primary learners to 30.5% by 2043 — an increase of 4 percentage points compared to the Current Path forecast for 2043. Burkina Faso’s quality of education lags behind its income peers and this trend will continue throughout the forecast horizon, although the gap will slowly start to narrow.

In the Education scenario, test scores at secondary level could increase by 9.2 percentage points from 33.5% in 2019 to 42.7% in 2043 versus 35.8% in the Current Path.

Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita will increase to US$3 640 by 2043 on the Current Path compared to US$3 762 in the Education scenario, a difference of US$122. The country’s GDP per capita is forecast to continue to lag behind the average GDP per capita for Africa’s low-income economies. In the Education scenario, the latter is projected to have an average GDP per capita of US$3 923 by 2043.

In the Education scenario, it is expected that 18.9% of Burkina Faso’s population will live in extreme poverty by 2043, compared to 20.7% in the Current Path forecast. This translates to a projected total of 7.01 million poor people in 2043 compared to 7.71 million in the Current Path forecast. The interventions proposed in this scenario can lift an additional 700 000 people out of extreme poverty.

The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario represents reasonable but ambitious manufacturing growth through greater investment in the economy, investments in research and development, and promotion of the export of manufactured goods. It is accompanied by an increase in welfare transfers (social grants) to moderate the initial increases in inequality that are typically associated with a manufacturing transition. To this end, the scenario improves tax administration and increases government revenues.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Chart 30 should be read with Chart 8 that presents a stacked area graph on the contribution to GDP and size, in billion US$, of the Current Path economy for each of the sectors.

In the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario, the service sector will experience the largest gain by far in terms of its relative contribution to GDP. Its contribution is expected to have increased by 0.6 percentage points in 2043. The service sector is followed by ICT that is projected to see its relative contribution to GDP increase by 0.1 percentage points in 2043. The ICT sector is followed by materials and manufacturing that both see smaller gains of 0.06 percentage points and 0.04 percentage points, respectively. It needs to be noted that the trend for both the relative contribution of the manufacturing and service sectors to GDP is not linear. The manufacturing sector peaks in 2035 when it is expected to add 0.7 percentage points in terms of its relative contribution to GDP compared to the Current Path forecast. The contribution of the service sector only starts picking up from about 2036 onwards.

The value of the service sector is forecast to increase by US$4.5 billion in the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario compared to the Current Path forecast. The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario has the potential for the manufacturing sector to contribute US$1.6 billion more to the economy by 2043 compared to the Current Path. The ICT sector is expected to contribute an additional US$0.5 million in this scenario, followed by materials at US$0.4 million.

In the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario, government to household welfare transfers are forecast to increase from US$0.3 billion in 2019 to US$3.7 billion in 2043 — a significant increase over the coming two decades.

Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita is expected to increase from US$1 972 in 2019 to US$3 865 in 2043 in the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario. This is a US$225 improvement compared to the Current Path at US$3 640 in 2043.

The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario has the potential to reduce the share of the population living in extreme poverty by 2.2 percentage points. By 2043, 18.5% (6.89 million people) are forecast to live in extreme poverty compared to 20.7% (7.7 million people) in the Current Path forecast. This is an improvement that would translate to 820 000 people escaping poverty in 2043. Burkina Faso’s poverty rate would remain below the average poverty rate for its low-income Africa at 22.23%.

The Leapfrogging scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious adoption of and investment in renewable energy technologies, resulting in better access to electricity in urban and rural areas. The scenario includes accelerated access to mobile and fixed broadband and the adoption of modern technology that improves government efficiency and allows for the more rapid formalisation of the informal sector.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Fixed broadband includes cable modem Internet connections, DSL Internet connections of at least 256 KB/s, fibre and other fixed broadband technology connections (such as satellite broadband Internet, ethernet local area networks, fixed-wireless access, wireless local area networks, WiMAX, etc.).

In 2019, Burkina Faso, like most African low-income economies, had a low fixed broadband rate of 3.8 subscriptions per 100 people. In the Leapfrogging scenario, by 2043, fixed broadband is set to increase to 50 subscriptions per 100 people versus 31.5 on the Current Path. Regarding fixed broadband subscriptions, Burkina Faso performs above average compared to its income peer group on the continent. The latter recorded an average of 2.3 subscriptions in 2019 — a rate that by 2043 could increase to 48.3 in the Leapfrogging scenario or to 29 in the Current Path forecast.

Mobile broadband refers to wireless Internet access delivered through cellular towers to computers and other digital devices.

In 2019, Burkina Faso had 42.3 mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 people, a rate that is almost twice as high as the group average of 22.9 subscriptions per 100 people for Africa’s low-income economies.

The Leapfrogging scenario has the potential to push mobile broadband subscriptions in Burkina Faso to 153.6 subscriptions per 100 people by 2043. However, even on the Current Path, the country is expected to arrive at 153.5 subscriptions by then. The greatest benefit of the interventions of the Leapfrogging scenario plays out in the medium term between 2024 and 2034 when projected subscriptions are indeed tangibly higher than in the Current Path forecast. In other words, mobile broadband subscriptions in Burkina Faso are expected to increase rapidly either way but more quickly in the Leapfrogging scenario.

Access to electricity remains a key challenge for Burkina Faso. In 2019, only 25.3% of the population had access to electricity. In fact, Burkina Faso ranks 11th lowest in Africa in this regard. At 53.2%, the latter has an average access rate that is more than double. In the Current Path forecast, 59.3% of the population will have access to electricity in 2043. In the Leapfrogging scenario, on the other hand, access to electricity is projected to expand faster, giving 75.1% of the population access by 2043. Burkina Faso will be able to catch up with its continental income peers as, on average, its low-income peer group will have an access level of 75.1% in the Leapfrogging scenario.

In the Leapfrogging scenario, Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita is expected to increase from US$1 942 in 2019 to US$3 986 compared to US$3 640 in the Current Path forecast. In the Leapfrogging scenario, Burkina Faso’s projected GDP per capita will be slightly less than the projected average for Africa’s low-income economies at US$4 130 by 2043.

The interventions in the Leapfrogging scenario are projected to benefit poverty reduction efforts in Burkina Faso. The share of the population living below the poverty line could more or less halve from 37% in 2019 to 18% by 2043 compared to 20.7% on the Current Path trajectory — a gain of close to 3 percentage points. When assessing absolute numbers, the Leapfrogging scenario reduces the number of people living in poverty to 6.72 million versus the projected 7.71 million in the Current Path forecast. In other words, 1 million people would escape poverty in the Leapfrogging scenario.

The Free Trade scenario represents the impact of the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by 2034 through increases in exports, improved productivity and increased trade and economic freedom.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website. 

The trade balance is the difference between the value of a country's exports and its imports. A country that imports more goods and services than it exports in terms of value has a trade deficit, while a country that exports more goods and services than it imports has a trade surplus.

In 2019, Burkina Faso had a trade deficit that accounted for 9.7% of GDP. In the Free Trade scenario, the country’s trade balance is set to improve with the deficit accounting for 3.5% of GDP by 2037 before it starts growing again, arriving at a deficit of 6.2% in 2043 versus 3.5% in the Current Path forecast. Essentially, Burkina Faso is expected to have a negative trade balance by 2043, but in the Free Trade scenario the deficit would be higher than in the Current Path. However, the implementation of the AfCFTA in the Free Trade scenario would improve the short- and medium-term trade deficit for Burkina Faso compared to the Current Path forecast.

In the Free Trade scenario, Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita is expected to increase from US$1 972 in 2019 to US$4 019. This is US$379 above the Current Path that is expected to be US$3 640 in 2043. In the Free Trade scenario, Burkina Faso’s projected future GDP per capita will still be significantly lower than the projected average for Africa’s low-income economies at US$4 255 by 2043.

In the Free Trade scenario, extreme poverty in Burkina Faso is expected to decrease more rapidly than on the Current Path. By 2043, in the Free Trade scenario, 16.7% of people are forecast to live in extreme poverty compared to 20.7% in the Current Path forecast. The 4 percentage point difference translates into 1.5 million people who would be able to escape poverty. In this scenario, the average poverty level in Africa’s low-income economies is projected to be 20.3% in 2043.

The Financial Flows scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious increase in worker remittances and aid flows to poor countries, and an increase in the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) and additional portfolio investment inflows to middle-income countries. We also reduced outward financial flows to emulate a reduction in illicit financial outflows.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

At 8.9% of GDP in 2019, foreign aid played a slightly more important role for Burkina Faso’s GDP than for the average African country where aid accounted for 2.4%. In both the Current Path forecast and the Financial Flows scenario, the contribution of foreign aid to the economy is projected to decline significantly by 2043, dropping to 5.3% of GDP in the Financial Flows scenario and to 4.7% in the Current Path. In Africa, aid will account for on average 1.2% of GDP in the Current Path forecast and 1.3% in the Financial Flows scenario.

FDI flows to Burkina Faso accounted for almost 2% of GDP in 2019, less than half of the average share for Africa’s low-income economies. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on FDI flows manifests in the sharp drop to 1.1% in 2020. In the Financial Flows scenario, FDI as a share of GDP is projected to recover and slightly surpass pre-pandemic levels. By 2043, FDI flows are set to account for 2.3% of Burkina Faso’s GDP compared to 2.1% in the Current Path forecast. In Africa’s lower middle-income economies, FDI is expected to account for 5.2% of GDP in the Financial Flows scenario and 4.7% on the Current Path.

In 2019, remittances accounted for 0.7% of Burkina Faso’s GDP. On the Current Path, this figure will drop to 0.3% by 2043. In the Financial Flows scenario, remittances are expected to account for 0.4% of the country’s GDP, the equivalent of US$300 million versus US$200 million on the Current Path.

In the Financial Flows scenario, Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita is expected to experience only a marginal increase above the Current Path forecast increase in income levels by US$44 by 2043. By 2043, Burkina Faso’s future GDP per capita is still projected to be significantly lower than the expected average for Africa’s low-income economies at US$4 130 in this scenario.

Trade openness will reduce poverty in the long term after initially increasing it due to the redistributive effects of trade. Most African countries export primary commodities and low-tech manufacturing products, and therefore a continental free trade agreement (AfCFTA) that reduces tariffs and non-tariff barriers across Africa will increase competition among countries in primary commodities and low-tech manufacturing exports. Countries with inefficient, high-cost manufacturing sectors might be displaced as the AfCFTA is implemented, thereby pushing up poverty rates. In the long term, as the economy adjusts and produces and exports its comparatively advantaged (lower relative cost) goods and services, poverty rates will decline.

The interventions in the Financial Flows scenario have a marginal impact on poverty reduction. In the Financial Flows scenario, poverty will reduce to 19.8% by 2043 compared to 20.7% in the Current Path forecast. This means that 7.39 million people instead of 7.71 million people could live below the poverty line in 2043 — a difference of 320 000 people.

The Infrastructure scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious increase in infrastructure spending across Africa, focusing on basic infrastructure (roads, water, sanitation, electricity access and ICT) in low-income countries and increasing emphasis on advanced infrastructure (such as ports, airports, railway and electricity generation) in higher-income countries.

Note that health and sanitation infrastructure is included as part of the Health/WaSH scenario and that ICT infrastructure and more rapid uptake of renewables are part of the Leapfrogging scenario. The interventions there push directly on outcomes, whereas those modelled in this scenario increase infrastructure spending, indirectly boosting other forms of infrastructure, including those supporting health, sanitation and ICT. 

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

In 2019, only 5.1 million people in Burkina Faso had access to electricity, accounting for about 25.3% of the population. In urban areas, access rates were almost seven times as high, reaching 63.8%. The interventions in the Infrastructure scenario have the potential to increase Burkina Faso’s overall electricity access rate to 70.8% by 2043 compared to 59.3% on the Current Path. This means that 4.3 million more people could benefit from access to electricity by 2043 (26.45 million versus 22.13 million).

Rural areas would benefit more from the interventions in the Infrastructure scenario than urban areas because they come from such a low baseline. Access rates in rural areas would increase from 9.5% to 58.8% by 2043 compared to 42.5% on the Current Path. In urban areas, the Infrastructure scenario accounts for an additional improvement of about 5 percentage points pushing the expected access rate to 87.2%.

Indicator 9.1.1 in the Sustainable Development Goals refers to the proportion of the rural population who live within 2 km of an all-season road and is captured in the Rural Access Index.

Investments in rural road infrastructure are associated with positive socio-economic impacts, such as increased rural incomes and poverty reduction, improving maternal health as well as paediatric health, and heightened agricultural productivity. In 2019, 30.5% of Burkina Faso’s rural population had access to an all-weather road within a distance of 2 km. This is more than 12 percentage points below the average access rate of its low-income peer group which stands at 43%. The Infrastructure scenario has the potential to improve road access in rural Burkina Faso. By 2043, it is projected that 43.9% of Burkina Faso’s rural population will have access to an all-weather road within a distance of 2 km compared to 40.1% in the Current Path forecast.

Improvements included in the Infrastructure scenario are expected to push GDP per capita from US$1 972 in 2019 to US$3 884 in 2043, US$244 above the Current Path forecast. Despite the expected increases in both scenarios, Burkina Faso’s GDP per capita is forecast to remain below the average of its low-income peers on the continent. By 2043, in the Infrastructure scenario the latter is expected to reach US$3 949.

In the Infrastructure scenario, the share of Burkinabe living in extreme poverty is expected to drop from 37% in 2019 to 18.6% in 2043. This is an improvement of more than 2 percentage points relative to the Current Path forecast of 20.7%, and it means that 770 000 people could be lifted out of poverty over the coming two decades as a result of the interventions in the Infrastructure scenario.

The Governance scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious improvement in accountability and reduces corruption, and hence improves the quality of service delivery by government.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

As defined by the World Bank, government effectiveness ‘captures perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government’s commitment to such policies’.

Chart 51 presents the impact of the interventions in the Governance scenario on government effectiveness.

In 2019, Burkina Faso ranked third in government effectiveness within its low-income peer group, preceded by Uganda and Rwanda as the group’s frontrunners. Burkina Faso’s score of 1.98 lies well above the average group score of 1.37. In the Current Path forecast and the Governance scenario, Burkina Faso’s government effectiveness quality score is projected to improve to 2.4 and 2.5, respectively by 2043. Africa’s low-income economies could reach an average score of 2 in the Governance scenario compared to 1.9 on the Current Path.

On the Current Path, GDP per capita is expected to increase to US$3 640 while the interventions in the Governance scenario have the potential to increase GDP per capita to US$3 884 in 2043 — an increase of US$97. Burkina Faso is expected to lag behind the average GDP per capita for Africa’s low-income economies, which is projected to be US$3 790 on the Current Path and US$3 917 in the Governance scenario.

In the Governance scenario, Burkina Faso could reduce the proportion of the population living below the poverty line by 1% in 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast. The interventions could prevent about 360 000 people in Burkina Faso from living in extreme poverty in 2043, reducing poverty levels to 19.7%.

This section presents projections for carbon emissions in the Current Path for Burkina Faso and the 11 scenarios. Note that IFs uses carbon equivalents rather than CO2 equivalents.

Among the sectoral interventions, the Agriculture and the Free Trade scenarios are expected to have the biggest impact on carbon emissions by 2043, resulting in emissions of about 9 million tons each. The other scenarios have a similar impact around 8 million or 7 million tons of carbon, i.e. they are closer to the expected emissions volume in the Current Path around 8 million tons of carbon. The interventions proposed in the Demographic scenario will result in slightly lower emissions compared to the Current Path — a result of a smaller population.