Five years to shape East Africa’s trajectory
Harnessing youth potential, strengthening health systems and advancing trade integration will be central to East Africa’s future development.
The East African Community (EAC) is entering a decisive period to shape its medium to long-term future. In 2025, the bloc began drafting its next five-year plan, while three partner states held elections since 2023, and the other five will do so before 2027. Combined with an imminent epidemiological transition and a large youth population straining for change, these dynamics create a narrow window for policy choices that will strongly determine the region’s trajectory.
African Futures modelling emphasises how critical this period of political change and goal-setting could be for the region: analysis of the EAC’s demographic, educational and trade trends, in particular, shows the huge potential for these countries but also the need for immediate action to ensure it is realised.
To accelerate growth, leaders need to set development goals that are ambitious enough to inspire change yet realistic enough to maintain focus. Central to this is the paperwork that shapes budgets, as the EAC Secretariat formulates and confirms its 7th Development Strategy (2026/27–2030/31), a process that kicked off in May 2025. These medium-term strategies translate the EAC’s overarching development plan, Vision 2050, into goals and indicators against which partner states can measure progress. The 7th Strategy is where governments define concrete priorities, requiring great care to ensure they focus on interventions that will spur growth.
To accelerate growth, leaders need to set development goals that are ambitious enough to inspire change yet realistic enough to maintain focus
The concentration of elections in the next two years could serve as inflection points for countries seeking to overcome persistent poverty, inequality and youth unemployment. Newly elected leaders with fresh mandates and expectant electorates can reinvigorate their nation’s pursuit of development through targeted interventions best suited to local contexts. Reasserting their commitment to the shared goals of Vision 2050 and the 7th Strategy will be crucial at a time when a growing, youthful population is demanding.
Indeed, the region is young and will remain so: 43% of the EAC’s people were aged under 15 in 2023, and children will still account for 34% of the Community’s population by 2050. As has been reiterated over multiple development cycles, this can be either an engine of growth or a driver of instability, depending on whether schooling, health and jobs arrive on time. Recent protests in Madagascar, Kenya and Morocco have shown the potential source of upheaval a disenfranchised youth can be, as they demand change in the face of rising youth unemployment and inequality. Equipping those entering the job market with the necessary skills to find employment is critical, as is keeping them healthy well into their adult life. In the long run, such targeted interventions will have tangible effects on average incomes and wider knock-on effects on civic engagement, overall happiness and life expectancy.
African Futures modelling quantifies these potential gains through an Education scenario for the EAC. Higher intake, survival and graduation rates, as well as improved educational quality from primary to tertiary level, promote growth. Interventions further target gender parity, particularly at the primary and secondary levels, and the proportion of students enrolled in vocational studies and STEM-focused courses at higher levels. If implemented, the scenario interventions could see the EAC’s GDP per capita being US$336 higher by 2050, a 7.4% increase over a business-as-usual (Current Path) trajectory. At a country level, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda stand to benefit most from the Education scenario, with increases above 8%.
To further benefit from its growing working-age population—226.4 million people by 2030—policymakers drafting the EAC’s 7th Development Strategy should focus on the imminent epidemiological transition the region will soon undergo. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) will overtake communicable diseases as the EAC’s leading cause of death in 2031, meaning ministries need to retool systems built for childhood infections toward prevention, screening and chronic care—work that requires time and sustained investment. By 2050, NCDs will account for 61% of deaths in the region, and the most effective time to influence that trend is now.
Targeted interventions aimed at achieving realistic health-related goals will bring great gains by 2050, as exemplified by the Demographics and Health scenario. The interventions tackle both communicable and non-communicable diseases, improve access to safely managed water and sanitation, and reduce maternal and under-five mortality. The net effect is a region that enters its demographic window of opportunity eight years earlier, in 2043, enabling the EAC to benefit sooner from lower dependency ratios and a growing workforce. Burundi, Tanzania and Uganda would all enter these windows before 2050, whereas a Current Path trajectory sees them move into this space only a few years after Vision 2050 ends.
With targeted interventions, the region can enter its demographic window of opportunity eight years earlier, in 2043, compared to the current development trajectory
The potential of EAC’s population is just one factor shaping the next five years. Trade, underpinned by a fully implemented AfCFTA and infrastructure development, will be heavily influenced by decisions made in the near future. The AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol was approved by State Party Ministers in February 2024, but negotiations continue on rules of origin, cybersecurity and cross-border digital payments— all of which will be key to the success of the AfCFTA. Once negotiations conclude, states will have to ratify the Protocol and then have five years to implement its provisions. The sooner this process concludes, and the EAC partner states begin to implement the changes needed to comply, the faster they can benefit from the increased market size and improved access associated with a fully liberalised trade area, underscored by meaningful digital connectivity.
Relatedly, the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) Agreement, approved in July 2024, has yet to be fully implemented, with five countries, including DR Congo and Somalia, not yet signing and ratifying. Because trade under this TFTA would be more liberalised than under the AfCFTA, an even greater emphasis is placed on clearing the red tape related to its implementation. African Futures modelling backs up this statement: in an AfCFTA scenario that simulates full implementation by 2034, the EAC’s extreme poverty rate (measured at US$2.15) falls by 6.8 percentage points by 2050—equivalent to about 44.2 million fewer people in poverty—and improves the region’s trade balance, with DR Congo the standout gainer.
In an AfCFTA scenario that simulates full implementation by 2034, the EAC’s extreme poverty rate falls by 6.8 percentage points by 2050
The promise and good news stories reflected in these scenarios will remain aspirations as long as governments and policymakers continue to postpone meaningful change. The adoption of a new development strategy that carries the EAC past 2030 and the end of the Sustainable Development Goals provides a prime opportunity to sharpen minds and regenerate momentum towards growth and development. Central will be the adoption of the interventions espoused by the Education and Demographics and Health scenarios, which lay the foundation for a healthy, well-educated workforce and bring forward the demographic window of opportunity. Educational attainment and quality must remain central to better education outcomes in the EAC, while a focus on both communicable and non-communicable diseases will be crucial to address the upcoming epidemiological transition. The sooner these foundation blocks are put in place, the faster partner states will be able to fully benefit from the AfCFTA and its opportunities. Agreeing on the provisions of the Digital Trade Protocol with fellow African Union members, and effectively implementing them once ratified, is needed to ensure the region optimises its potential for e-commerce and digital trade.
Growth requires the EAC to act now and focus on core reforms rather than grand promises. By prioritising better education, basic health systems and deeper trade integration, the region can maximise its demographic potential and expand the benefits of digital trade. As new electoral mandates take hold, the EAC must seize the opportunity to lay a more solid foundation for substantial advancements in income and well-being.
Image: j4p4n/Openclipart
Read the full recently updated regional report for EAC here.
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