Can Ibrahim Traoré turn the fortunes of Burkina Faso around?
Ibrahim Traoré’s leadership has sparked hope with bold reforms, but time will show if it marks genuine transformation or repeats the mistakes of military rule.
At 36 years old, Captain Ibrahim Traoré is currently the world’s youngest President, starkly contrasting to Africa’s average leader age of 63. He assumed office in September 2022 after overthrowing Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba, who had earlier removed President Roch Kaboré’s government in January 2022. In his inaugural statement, Traoré indicated that Burkina Faso was in a state of emergency, citing crises in security, defence, healthcare, social action and infrastructure. He pledged to combat armed terrorist groups while adhering to the transition timetable agreed upon with ECOWAS, which aimed to restore democratic rule by 1 July 2024. However, following Burkina Faso’s withdrawal from ECOWAS and the announcement of a new transition plan, it now appears that President Traoré may remain in power until at least 2029.
His popularity has soared since his ascension to power, and he is now arguably Africa’s most popular if not favourite President. On 7 January 2025, during President Mahama’s inauguration in Accra, Traoré received the loudest applause among all the 21 African heads of state present. This was evidence of his popularity but also reflected the worrisome increasing trend of tolerance for military rule on the continent, especially among the youth. In Burkina Faso, the Afrobarometer reports that almost two-thirds of Burkinabé believe that the armed forces should intervene when leaders abuse their power. Likewise, two out of every three people (66%) in Burkina Faso accept military rule, a significant rise from the 24% who accepted the same in 2012. The fact that the survey was conducted at a time when the country was already under a military regime portrays a general acceptance, if not legitimacy, of the regime.
However, Traoré’s popularity goes beyond Africa’s nostalgia for military rule. Since assuming power, he has embarked on radical reforms that resonate with many Burkinabés and Africa’s growing population. So far, he has reversed a salary increase for government officials agreed under his predecessor while he remains on his earnings as a military captain. As part of efforts to take ownership and control of the country’s mineral resources, Captain Traoré has nationalised two gold mines and stopped exporting unrefined gold to Europe. Instead, he has inaugurated a national gold refinery that is expected to process 150 tonnes annually. Other significant achievements include establishing the National Support Center for Artisanal Cotton Processing, building a new airport (the Ouagadougou-Donsin Airport), and considerable agricultural investment.While these are noble attempts to industrialise Burkina Faso, it has to learn from the failures and successes of other countries in order not to fall into the usual traps of inefficiencies, corruption and mismanagement that characterise most state-owned enterprises in Africa.
Further, Traoré has rejected financial assistance from the IMF and World Bank, insisting that the country can develop without the loans and its conditionalities from the West. To many Africans, this gesture is not just a financial decision but the determination to break away from the shackles of the Bretton Woods institutions, which has often been criticised for imposing austerity measures that have weakened many African economies. To some, it is the demonstration of the black man capable of handling his own business, as Nkrumah said. To the younger generation, Traoré’s regime is an opportunity to show the older generation what the young people can do if given the chance. Indeed, some have even likened him to Thomas Sankara, the nation’s former military president. But to the ordinary Burkinabé, all they seek is an improvement in their welfare and the provision of daily bread.
To many Africans, this gesture is not just a financial decision but the determination to break away from the shackles of the Bretton Woods institutions
However, this is not the first time such a charismatic figure has emerged in the political scene of Africa. Many revolutionary leaders have had similar starts yet have later deviated from the course of which they cling to power. In Ghana, a 32-year-old Jerry Rawlings emerged in late 1979 in a bloody revolution on probity and accountability meant to fight corruption and sanitise the country’s political system. He was even nicknamed “Junior Jesus” as a saviour of the country. Yet, after 19 years in power, his legacy is characterised by mixed feelings.
At a time of increasing global uncertainties and a decline in international aid, Africa's determination to self-reliance and ownership and control of its resources is key to its success. Burkina Faso, like many African countries, is blessed with natural resources that, if properly managed, can transform the lives of its citizens.The country is endowed with mineral resources and produces substantial quantities of gold, zinc, copper, manganese, phosphate and limestone. It also has reserves of diamonds, bauxite, nickel and vanadium, most of which remain largely unexploited. Although the country has made gains, with GDP (in market exchange rate) increasing almost sixfold, from US$3.2 billion in 1990 to US$18.3 billion in 2023, and while extreme poverty (using the US$2.15 threshold) declined from 83% to 27.7% in the same period, significant challenges persist.
According to the 2023/2024 Human Development Report, Burkina Faso is classified among nations with low human development and ranked 185th out of 193 countries on the Human Development Index (HDI). Additionally, it placed 149th out of 167 countries on the 2024 SDG Index, which assesses performance across the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. On the Multidimensional Poverty Index, 64.5% of Burkina Faso's population is multidimensionally poor, with an additional 15.8% classified as vulnerable to multidimensional poverty.
Notwithstanding these challenges, the economy holds significant promise. A recent study by the ISS African Futures team shows that Burkina Faso’s economy can grow at an average rate of 8% from 2025 to 2043. This will translate into an additional GDP per capita of US$1 120 above a business-as-usual forecast - and reduce income poverty to only 2.6% of the population, meaning that an extra 2.4 million Burkinabés could be lifted out of poverty by 2043.
The study further identified governance reforms as the critical area to rapidly unlock the country’s development potential. Indeed, good governance could raise GDP per capita by an extra US$240 above a business-as-usual forecast and lift 500 000 additional Burkinabé out of extreme poverty. To realise this potential, Captain Traoré must lead the country in overcoming key governance challenges, including political instability, insecurity, extremism and weak institutions.
Turning this around requires institutional and structural reforms that will enhance security, transparency, accountability, public sector efficiency and governance inclusion. The immediate task is to address its security challenges through the spread of Islamic terrorism, which has resulted in the loss of about 40% of its national territory. This undermines the state’s authority and ability to deliver public services, as thousands of schools and health facilities are closed in those areas. The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) estimates that over 2 million people are internally displaced, and the number of people needing humanitarian assistance increased by 35% between 2022 and 2023.
Captain Traoré must lead the country in overcoming key governance challenges, including political instability, insecurity, extremism and weak institutions
The second task is to focus on building strong institutions and prioritise reforms that strengthen existing institutions to improve public sector efficiency and combat corruption, which has been the bane of many African leaders. It is also essential to empower local governments through decentralisation by providing them with the resources and capacity to implement development programs tailored to local needs. While leadership and individual charisma are key to achieving good governance, they must transcend personality to institutions to ensure longevity and continuity.
Thirdly, in the medium term, the country needs to transition into constitutional rule to ensure political stability, inclusion and legitimacy to drive economic growth. This will also enhance investor confidence, allowing Burkina Faso to attract the needed foreign direct investment for its development. In this regard, the African Union, civil society organisations and development partners should support the 60-month transition plan to ensure a smooth transition to democratic rule.
With a young, strong, and charismatic leader, Burkina Faso has a golden opportunity to get its governance right and drive its developmental aspirations. This can be a lasting legacy for Captain Traoré’s regime.
Image: Voice of America/WikimediaCommons
