Africa’s agency in a contested world
Four worlds, one call to action: Africa’s ability to shape its future depends on strategic choices, not circumstances.
Attending the Munich Security Conference earlier this month underscored just how sharply global power dynamics are shifting. The extent to which US Vice-President JD Vance lashed out at Europe would otherwise have been comical if it was not so serious. His attack reflected deepening fractures in transatlantic relations—an unsettling reality for Africa’s strategic calculations.
The world is recalibrating. As global power shifts and multipolarity becomes a reality, all countries need to reassess their global positioning. Emerging opportunities and threats are undeniable. Uncertainty, competition and complexity are accelerating.
The very foundations of Africa’s traditional engagements with the world are changing. Longstanding reliance on external aid and financial support is declining, reflected in US President Donald Trump’s executive order on Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid of 20 January 2025, the subject of a recent Africa Tomorrow blog. As geopolitical tensions and economic realignments reshape global funding flows, Africa’s dependence on external actors for trade, aid and investment leaves it vulnerable to these shifting alliances and reduced financial commitments. Deep-seated internal structural barriers, uneven development and fragmented national interests across the continent are weakening its bargaining power.
What sets this moment apart is not just the shifting global order but the heightened stakes for Africa. A world of slow growth, increasing contestation, climate change and technological progress increases Africa’s strategic vulnerabilities, which are easily exploited by others, such as the regime protection offered to coup leaders in the Sahel by Russian forces. Yet, at the same time, its strengths—its markets, resources and youthful demographics—hold the potential to be powerful leverage.
Africa’s position in a changing world
Africa’s economic footprint of underutilised potential is well known. The continent contributes just 3% of global GDP, projected to increase only to 5% by mid-century on a business-as-usual forecast. Even Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, accounts for a mere 0.5% of global GDP, edging up only slightly to 0.6% by 2050. While Nigeria dominates within Africa—comprising 16% of the continent’s total economy—this scale fails to translate into global economic or political significance. Yet, in 2042, Nigeria becomes the country with the third-largest population globally.
This disconnect between Africa’s growing population and importance as a source of rare earth on the one hand and its limited global influence on the other is not incidental; it stems from deep structural constraints. Challenges such as its high demographic dependency ratio, low levels of regional integration, economic fragmentation and reliance on commodity exports limit the continent’s ability to leverage its potential. Governance challenges, food insecurity, infrastructure deficits and slow industrialisation constrain Africa’s capacity to translate its assets into meaningful global influence.
The palpable shift towards a more multipolar world only presents opportunities if Africa proactively defines its role. Power is not merely a matter of size or position; it is about leadership, strategy and the ability to shape the future rather than simply react to events. The real challenge is not whether Africa can navigate these shifts, but whether it can seize this moment to define its own place in the evolving global system.
Power is not merely a matter of size or position; it is about leadership, strategy and the ability to shape events rather than simply react to them
This raises a critical question: which global trajectory offers Africa the greatest opportunity to assert agency? To this end, the African Futures team have developed and modelled four global scenarios that collectively capture reasonable alternative futures. The scenario development follows a traditional approach, using the extent of sustainability and globalisation as the defining features (or axis) that surface a Sustainable, Divided, World at War or a Growth World. The key characteristics of each are summarised in Chart 1. In our theme on Africa in the World we first explore and explain each globally, and then examine their implications for the continent.
Although our current global trajectory can most readily be associated with the Divided World scenario, the purpose of these four worlds is to map out the implications of starkly divergent futures. Inevitably, tomorrow and the day thereafter will be somewhere in between or even contain elements of two or more scenarios. Progress towards a Sustainable World would most likely only emerge from a global crisis such as that described in the World at War scenario, for example. Whichever the case, the implications for Africa’s economic resilience, political stability and global influence vary significantly depending on which path unfolds.
Economic and development outcomes
The impact on the size of Africa's economy, GDP per capita and poverty levels is starkly different in the four scenarios, with obviously large country-to-country variations. Africa does best in the Sustainable World scenario and worst in the World at War scenario.
The Sustainable World maximises economic growth, with a global economy of US$170 trillion in 2043 (compared to US$94 trillion in 2023), improves income and reduces poverty. In the Sustainable World, Africa’s extreme poverty rates would be 50% lower than in the World at War, and the African economy would be almost 75% larger.
The current global trajectory, which is closest to our Divided World scenario, caps Africa’s development potential. Beyond Africa's development needs, the accelerated impact of climate change will require a collaborative approach rather than the current trend towards division. Only much deeper economic and political integration in Africa, complemented by more rapid and sustained economic growth, could offset the continent's limited role in shaping global orientations. That requires leadership and stability.
Africa's carbon emissions are expected to increase across all scenarios due to energy expansion, industrialisation and economic growth. However, the extent of the rise varies significantly and in separate work we model and forecast Africa’s energy transition and the effect of climate change.
Paradoxically, the World at War scenario sees the lowest increase in emissions—not due to sustainability efforts but because economic growth slows dramatically amid global instability. While this scenario may limit Africa’s carbon footprint, it does so due to economic stagnation, rising poverty and increased vulnerability to external shocks.
Each scenario forces Africa to make choices. The Sustainable World offers the greatest prosperity but demands regional cooperation and long-term commitment to governance reforms. The Growth World drives economic expansion but risks widening inequality and worsening climate impacts. The Divided World mirrors today’s trajectory—a fragmented Africa, vulnerable to external control. And the World at War is the ultimate failure—a continent consumed by conflict, instability and economic stagnation.
But these choices are not predetermined—African leaders, institutions and regional partnerships will shape our future. Strategic engagement with emerging powers, deeper regional integration and proactive global governance reforms can tilt the balance toward more favourable outcomes.
These choices in a changing world are not predetermined—African leaders, institutions and regional partnerships will play a role in shaping them
To move from adaptation to agency, Africa must:
1. Reframe global engagement – Stop playing by old rules and start shaping new ones. Africa must move beyond reactive diplomacy by setting the agenda in global trade, security and finance negotiations. This means pushing for meaningful reforms in global governance institutions such as the UN Security Council, enforcing transparency in foreign investment deals, and leveraging collective action through regional institutions.
2. Bring a strategic and integrated approach to trade - The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) must go beyond trade to drive industrialisation, technology adoption and economic self-sufficiency, ensuring that Africa is not just a supplier of raw materials but a key decision-maker and trendsetter in global markets.
3. Strengthen internal systems to build external leverage – Governance gaps weaken Africa’s ability to negotiate from a position of strength. Regional coordination, binding accountability mechanisms and streamlined institutions are essential for Africa to act as a unified force rather than a collection of competing states.
4. Integrate development with strategy – Africa cannot afford to separate short-term development needs from long-term geopolitical positioning. Achieving this balance is challenging, as competing priorities often strain resource allocation. To navigate this complexity effectively, governance leaders must reframe their approaches and paradigms to integrate economic growth, social development and environmental sustainability. This holistic approach will not only strengthen Africa’s resilience but also enhance its competitiveness on the global stage.
Africa must move beyond adapting to power shifts toward actively shaping its place in the new world order
Africa must redefine its global role. African-led initiatives such as the AfCFTA, the African Union’s peace and security frameworks, and strategic alliances with emerging economies show that agency is not a distant goal—it is already in motion. The challenge is accelerating and scaling these efforts. The world will not wait for Africa to get ready, and simply adapting to power shifts is not enough. Africa must seize the moment to actively shape its place in the new world order.
Image: Mohamed_hassan/Pixabay
