Comoros

The eight sectoral scenarios as well as their relationship to the Current Path and the Combined scenario are explained in the About Page. Chart 10 summarises the approach.

Chart 11 presents the mortality distribution in the Current Path for 2023 and 2043.

The Demographics and Health scenario envisions ambitious improvements in child and maternal mortality rates, enhanced access to modern contraception, and decreased mortality from communicable diseases (e.g., AIDS, diarrhoea, malaria, respiratory infections) and non-communicable diseases (e.g., diabetes), alongside advancements in safe water access and sanitation. This scenario assumes a swift demographic transition supported by heightened investments in health and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) infrastructure.

Visit the themes on Demographics and Health/WaSH for more detail on the scenario structure and interventions.

The health sector in Comoros has made significant progress in recent years, although a number of challenges remain. For example, through its “Programme d'appui au secteur de la santé aux Comores^[1]” (PASCO), Comoros has seen a marked improvement in health indicators, particularly those relating to maternal and child health. PASCO has enabled the rehabilitation and construction of 22 health facilities on the three islands of Comoros and most recently the construction of the El Maarouf national hospital. It has also witnessed the provision of five medical ambulances, the training of 300 health professionals (public health, management of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), burns, etc.), the coverage of 12 health districts and the development of a new health system.

In addition, there is partial coverage of maternal and child healthcare in 12 of the 17 health districts. The rehabilitation of operating theatres and the reinforcement of the implementation of hospital reforms and the quality of the health information system (health code, MNT strategy, health map ...)).

The country has a National Pharmaceutical Policy based on the list of essential generic medicines. The Office Comorien des Produits Pharmaceutiques (ONCOPHARMA) was created in 2017. It currently ensures the supply, storage and distribution of quality health products, geographically and financially accessible to the entire Comorian population.

Despite these investments, the health system of Comoros has been facing major constraints, particularly in terms of maternal and infant mortality. The predominance of communicable diseases and the increasing frequency of chronic illnesses, drugs, lack of infrastructure, equipment and qualified personnel are all major challenges in addition to insufficient funding.

Epidemiological conditions are marked by both transmissible and non-transmissible diseases. In terms of non-communicable diseases, diarrhoeal diseases predominate in children under 5, aggravated by malnutrition. Malnutrition is a public health problem. In Comoros, the prevalence of stunting varies from 35% in Ndzuwani to 23% in Mwali and Ngazidja. Malnutrition affects 11% of children under the age of 5, including 4% in the severe form. In 2023, 30% of children aged 0-5 suffered from stunted growth - a rate 4.7 percentage points higher than the average of lower-middle-income countries in Africa, at 25.3%. For malaria, in 2023, the death rate was 0.184 per 1000. This figure is forecast to fall to around 0.1 per 1000 by 2043. Malaria prevalence is forecast to fall from 0.02 per 1000 in 2023 to 0.008 in 2043. The maternal mortality rate will fall from 38.3 deaths per1000 live births in 2023 to 24.6 deaths per 1000 live births in 2043. Improving food security, housing and living conditions remain a challenge for the country. 

Regarding communicable diseases, the prevalence of HIV/AIDS is less than 1%, or 0.03%, with heterosexuality the dominant mode of transmission. In 2023, 0.0008% of Comorians died of AIDS, compared with 0.04% of low-middle-income countries in Africa. According to WHO, deaths at birth, malaria, diarrhoeal diseases caused by drinking unsafe water, food quality, the effects of the environment and climate change are all causes of morbidity and mortality, particularly among children and women. The Comorian government should also make an effort to increase its healthcare expenditure.

Chart 12 presents the infant mortality rate in the Current Path and in the Demographics and Health scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

The infant mortality rate is the probability of a child born in a specific year dying before reaching the age of one. It measures the child-born survival rate and reflects the social, economic and environmental conditions in which children live, including their health care. It is measured as the number of infant deaths per 1 000 live births and is an important marker of the overall quality of the health system in a country.

Comoros' health system has improved considerably over the last three decades, as the infant mortality rate shows. In 1990, deaths per 1 000 live births stood at 94.4 (compared with 83.7 per 1 000 live births in lower-middle-income countries in Africa) and this figure had dropped to 38.3 in 2023 - a drop of 59.4%. Infant mortality rates in Comoros are 2.9 deaths per 1 000 lives, fewer than the average for lower-middle-income Africa in 2023. On the Current Path, infant mortality will continue to decline to 24.1 deaths per 1 000 live births by 2043, still significantly below the expected average for lower-middle-income Africa which is 29.4 deaths per  1 000 live births.

The Demographics and Health scenario will further reduce Comoros’ infant mortality rate to 14.9 deaths per 1 000 births by 2043. This will be 9.2 fewer deaths than on the Current Path. Although this does not fully meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target, it pushes Comoros close to the target, emphasising the need for the country to continue investing in access to improved healthcare service.

Chart 13 presents the demographic dividend in the Current Path and in the Demographics and Health scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

The dividend is the window of economic growth opportunity that opens when the ratio of working-age persons to dependents increases to 1.7 to 1 and higher.

We explain the different conceptualisations relating to a demographic dividend in a separate theme.

The demographic dividend is the economic growth generated by changes in the population structure. It generally materialises when the ratio of the working-age population to dependants is at least 1.7 to one, meaning that for every dependant, there are 1.7 persons of working age. When there are fewer dependants to take care of, it frees up resources for investment in both physical and human capital formation. Studies have shown that about one-third of economic growth during the East Asia economic ‘miracle’ can be attributed to the large worker bulge and a relatively small number of dependants. However, the growth in the working-age population relative to dependants does not automatically translate into rapid economic growth unless the labour force acquires the needed skills and is absorbed by the labour market. Without sufficient education and employment generation to successfully harness their productive power, the growing labour force (especially those in urban areas) could increasingly become frustrated with the lack of job opportunities leading to social tension and even the emergence of civil instability.

In 2023, the ratio of the working-age population to dependants in Comoros was 1.4 - below the value of 1.7 needed to expect the materialisation of the demographic dividend. This figure is almost the same as for other lower-middle-income countries in Africa. On the Current Path, the ratio of the working-age population to dependants is projected to increase steadily, reaching about 1.6 by 2043.

In the Demographics and Health scenario, Comoros will achieve the minimum ratio of 1.7 working-age people to dependants required to enter a demographic sweet spot in 2043.

Chart 14 presents crop production and demand in the Current Path from 1990 to 2043.

The data on agricultural production and demand in the IFs forecasting platform initialises from data provided on food balances by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). IFs contains data on numerous types of agriculture but aggregates its forecast into crops, meat and fish, presented in million metric tons. Chart 9 shows agricultural production and demand as a total of all three categories.

The Agriculture scenario envisions an agricultural revolution that ensures food security through ambitious yet feasible increases in yields per hectare, thanks to improved management, seed, fertiliser technology, and expanded irrigation and equipped land. Efforts to reduce food loss and waste are emphasised, with increased calorie consumption as an indicator of self-sufficiency and prioritising it over food exports. Additionally, enhanced forest protection signifies a commitment to sustainable land use practices.

Visit the theme on Agriculture for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

Agriculture is a vital part of the Comorian economy with agricultural exports (cash crops) accounting for around 90% of export earnings. Export revenues are generated by just three products: cloves (29.8% of total exports), vanilla (14.2%) and Ylang Ylang essential oils (24.81%) and are grown in the lowlands next to the coast. Crops such as coconuts, bananas, cassava and sweet potatoes are grown in the highlands and are used primarily for domestic consumption. A large percentage of the population is dependent on subsistence rain-fed agriculture, making the agriculture sector extremely vulnerable to weather patterns. Regular natural disasters have impacted food production extensively in the past. According to INSEED^[1], vulnerability to natural disasters further exacerbates food supply risks and availability. Before the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, 22.4% of the Comorian population was severely food insecure, and 22% moderately so. According to the FAO, around 33% of Comorans were living in absolute food poverty, and around 31% of children were stunted and 25% underweight in 2022.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) estimates that Comoros spends 25 billion Comorian francs or KMF (around €50 million) a year on agricultural imports. Poultry and animal feed account for 16% of agricultural imports. The country imports 20 000 tons of broiler chicken and over 950 000 table eggs. Foodstuffs such as rice, wheat and beef are also main import commodities. This situation is due to the small yield per hectare which was less than 3.4 metric tons per hectare. On the Current Path, yields will rise to 4.6 metric tons per hectare by 2043. 

Also, the lack of agricultural mechanisation in Comoros has a significant impact on crop yields. In 2023, Comorian total^[2] agricultural production was 408 650 metric tons - this production comprises crop production (371 220 metric tons), meat production (19 470 metric tons) and fish production (18 000 metric tons). On the Current Path, Comorian total agricultural production will rise to 539 390 metric tons per hectare by 2043.

In terms of demand, the total demand for agricultural products in Comoros has always been more than the total production. Total demand stood at about 570 070 metric tons in 2023, of which 496 340 metric tons, equivalent to 8-% of total demand, were for crops. The remaining demand was for meat (50 360 tons) and for fish (23 370 tons). Comparing this to the total production (about 408 650 metric tons) in the same year reveals that Comoros had excess demand for agricultural products in that year of about 161 420 metric tons. Despite the projected increase in domestic production, reaching 539 390 metric tons in 2043, it will by far not be enough to meet domestic demand that will rapidly grow to 948 160 metric tons in the same period.

This situation highlights the improvements which the Comorian agricultural sector needs to achieve, particularly in terms of opening up production zones; as well as improving access to seeds and other agricultural inputs by strengthening access to credit, notably through the creation of agricultural banks, and improving irrigation infrastructure for off-season production.

Chart 15 presents the import dependence in the Current Path and the Agriculture scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

Comoros is vulnerable to food insecurity and relies heavily on food imports. Domestic production falls short of the growing demand. In 2023, total agricultural demand exceeded production, with import dependency equivalent to 35.3% of total demand. This result is mainly driven by large imports of goods such as crops (80%), meat (17%) and fish (3%). On the Current Path, by 2043, demand is forecast to continue exceeding production, resulting in a significant import dependency of 43.9% of total demand.

In the Agriculture scenario, yields per hectare will increase to 6.3 metric tons by 2043 — a 36.9% improvement compared to the projections of the Current Path. The improvement in yields will lead to an improvement in total agricultural production. In the Agriculture scenario, total crop production will increase to 741 700 tons, almost 202 310 metric tons, or 37.5%, more than the Current Path by 2043. Crop production in Comoros will rise by 41.5% over the Current Path to 676 730 tons in the Agriculture scenario by 2043. The projected increases in crop production in the Agriculture scenario reduces the import dependency of crops in the country compared to the Current Path. By 2043, the net import of crops will decline to 17.9 as percent of demand in the Agriculture scenario instead of 40 in the Current Path. This implies that Comoros has the potential to reduce its food import and become food-sufficient if significant steps are taken to revamp the agricultural sector.

Chart 16 depicts the progress through the educational system in the Current Path, for 2023 and 2043.

The Education scenario represents reasonable but ambitious improvements in intake, transition, and graduation rates from primary to tertiary levels and better quality of education at primary and secondary levels. It also models substantive progress towards gender parity at all levels, additional vocational training at the secondary school level, and increases in the share of science and engineering graduates.

Visit the theme on Education for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

A heritage of colonisation (1912), Comoros' education system is divided into cycles, with compulsory education from age 4 to 16. The system is organised according to the law of 20 December 1994, revised in 2009. Students can re-enrol in two years of elementary school. No student can be excluded from school before the age of 14.

Comoros' education system comprises two sub-systems. On the one hand, the Koranic school, where teaching is carried out in Arabic. It is defined as “a religious institution designed primarily to provide Koranic instruction and to meet the basic needs of Muslim and traditional education”. On the other hand, the sub-system known as the official school, where education is in French. It is organised into five educational cycles: pre-elementary, elementary, secondary, technical and vocational training and higher education. Primary education is mapped out in eighteen regional pedagogical inspection districts across the country. In addition, since the 2000s, the education system has comprised two sectors - public and private - due to the rapid and growing number of students.

Despite the government's efforts to improve its education system - i.e., to make education a priority challenge - notably through its “Partnership Pact for the Transformation of the Basic Education System in the Comoros”, an important component of the “Education Sector Plan (ESP) 2030” and part of the fourth Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 4), the Comorian education system still has many problems such as educational infrastructure.

In 2023, the gross enrolment rate for primary school students in Comoros was 103.8%, a slight increase from 99% in 1990 but still higher than the average of 101.6% of lower-middle-income countries in Africa. Net enrolment rate in the same period stood at 86%. The relative high enrolment rate at the primary level is partly due to the strategy of not excluding students up to the age of 14. In the Current Path, Comoros' gross enrolment rates will reach 102.6% in 2043. In the same period, the net enrolment rate will be 96.8%. The country's figure will remain higher than that of other lower-middle-income countries in Africa.

The gross primary completion rate stood at almost 82.5% in 2023, indicating that a number of children who enrolled did not complete the last grade of primary school in Comoros. This figure is close to the average of the African income-group peers at 86.5%. On the Current Path, Comoros’ progress in ensuring more children complete primary school will rise to 97.2% in 2043 - slightly higher than in other lower-middle-income African countries (92.9%).

Of those who complete primary-level education, it is expected that some will transition immediately to the lower-secondary level, some will enrol in the lower-secondary level after some years out of school and some will never enter the lower-secondary level. In Comoros, more students transition from primary level to lower-secondary level than they do from lower-secondary level to upper-secondary level. In 2023, gross enrolment for lower- and upper-secondary levels in the country stood at 80.4% and 51.3%, respectively. By 2043, gross enrolment for the lower-secondary level will rise to 89.4%, while that of the upper-secondary level will rise to 64.6%. This indicates a significant drop in student retention from lower- to upper-secondary education. These figures are higher than in other lower-middle-income African countries.

Completion rates drop acutely from 43.6% in the lower-secondary level to a mere 25.8% in the upper-secondary level. In the Current Path, lower- and upper-secondary completion rates will modestly rise. By 2043, only 54.6% of students are expected to complete their lower-secondary education compared to 42% in upper-secondary level.

At the tertiary level, the situation is even worse. In 2023, only 12.6% of students within the age group were enrolled in tertiary institutions in Comoros, and this will only improve to about 21.2% by 2043 on the Current Path. Worryingly, only 1.5% of the relevant age group in Comoros graduated from a tertiary institution with at least a first degree in 2023. This will steadily rise to 8.8% by 2043, although it will still be lower than the average rates in other lower-middle-income African countries. In summary, the bottleneck at the lower-secondary level contracts even further at upper-secondary and tertiary levels.

Enrolments in vocational training and science and engineering education, which are crucial to the future of work, are quite low. Vocational training is a key element in meeting labour market needs, enhancing workers' skills and promoting the employability of young people. In 2023, the Comorian President launched the “Professionnalisation de l'Offre de Formation et d'Insertion” (PROFI) project, worth over €16 million, including €6.5 million of investment in infrastructure. The project aims to boost the employability of young Comorian graduates by reinforcing the range of scientific, technical and vocational programs offered in secondary and higher education. The professional fields to be developed under the project include industrial technologies, agriculture, construction and public works, digital computing, the environment and the tertiary sector (management/commerce). In its infrastructural content, the project should lead to the rehabilitation/extension of six higher education and technical secondary schools (four schools located on the island of Grande Comore and two schools located on the island of Anjouan) whose current technical education facilities are insufficient and/or unsatisfactory.

In 2023, about 0.6% of upper-secondary school students were enrolled in vocational training programmes in Comoros and set to remain so even by 2043. This is far below the average rate of 12.3% for lowr-middle-income countries in Africa. At the tertiary level, in 2023, 10.7% of graduates in Comoros enrolled in science and engineering programs which is high by comparative standards. In the Current Path, Comoros's progress rate will rise to 14.8% in 2043. 

Comoros has made significant efforts to close the gender gap in education. In 2023, 97 females were enrolled in primary school for every 100 males, compared to the 95 females to 100 males average of lower-middle-income countries. At the secondary level, there were only 97 females enrolled in lower-secondary schools for every 100 males in Comoros, as opposed to the average of 105 females for every 100 males in lower-middle-income Africa. At tertiary level, there were 99 female students for every 100 male students, the same as in Comoros’ income-group peers on the continent.

Using the average test score as a proxy for quality of education, Comoros’ performance is nearly similar to its income peers in Africa. In 2023, the average test score for primary education stood at 34 out of 100, at par with the average for its income-group peers in Africa. At the secondary level, the average test score stood at 43.1 out of 100, slightly above the average of 42.3 recorded for lower-middle-income African countries. On the Current Path, this trend will continue as Comoros’ performance will continue to increase.

The Comorian education system has certainly evolved over the years. Nevertheless, the education system is marked by dysfunction and irregularities, especially when it comes to pedagogical orientations. Overall, the Comorian education system is characterised by limited financial resources and a lack of good school infrastructure. It is also weakened by strikes that jeopardise school years, and by the ambiguous status of its official language.

Chart 17 presents the mean years of education in the Current Path and in the Education scenario, from 2020 to 2043, for the 15 to 24 age group.

The average years of education in the adult population aged 15 to 24 is a good first indicator of how the stock of knowledge in society is changing.

The average years of education in the adult population aged 15 to 24 is a good first indicator of how the stock of knowledge in society is changing. In 2023, the mean years of education attained by adults between 15 and 24 years in Comoros stood at 5.9 years, below the average of 8 years for lower-middle-income countries in Africa. On average, females received one year more schooling than males. In the Current Path, the average Comorian between the ages of 15 and 24 years will have received d 7.1 years of schooling by 2043.

In the Education scenario, the mean years of adult education will rise to 7.7 years by 2043. At this rate, it will be 0.6 years more than in the Current Path by 2043. The Education scenario further increases average test scores for primary students to 41.8% in 2043, compared to the Current Path of 36.7% in the same period. At the secondary level, the average test scores for students in Comoros will rise to 49% in 2043 more than the Current Path and the average of lower-middle-income countries in Africa.

It means that the Education scenario has the potential to improve the quality of education (reflected in the test scores) in Comoros above that of its income-group peers in Africa. 

Chart 18 presents the value-add by sector as share of GDP in the Current Path, for 2023 and 2043.

In the Manufacturing scenario, reasonable but ambitious growth in manufacturing is envisaged through increased investment in the sector, research and development (R&D), and improved government regulation of businesses. This aims to enhance total labour participation rates, particularly among females where appropriate.

Visit the theme on Manufacturing for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

The manufacturing sector is crucial for the productive transformation of a country’s economy towards sustained high growth, employment creation and improved prosperity. It has backwards and forwards linkages with other sectors, such as the agriculture and the service sectors.

Comoros’ industrialisation model, particularly in the manufacturing sub-sector, is based on the development of products such as seafoods, essential oils and natural cosmetics for which Comoros has comparative advantages,. ie. The manufacturing sector is primarily focused on processing agricultural products, particularly vanilla and ylang-ylang, for export, with the main activities being the preparation of vanilla and distillation of ylang-ylang into perfume essence; this is considered the primary industry in the country due to its reliance on cash crops grown on plantations throughout the islands.

Despite the important role of the sector in the country's structural transformation process, it accounts for a relatively small share of GDP - a mere 6% in 2022. The sector faces several difficulties that limit its structural transformation, including inadequate infrastructure which hinders the development of larger-scale manufacturing operations.  Most manufacturing processes lack advanced technology, impacting efficiency and quality. Finally, because of a lack of financial resources, outdated equipment and unskilled labour, productivity levels in the manufacturing sector have remained relatively low.

Faced with these challenges, the Comorian government has undertaken a vast series of reforms aimed at improving the country's manufacturing industry. These reforms are key elements of its sustainable development plan, Plan Comores Émergent à l'horizon 2030, and its Country Strategy Paper 2021-2025, which give priority to the structural transformation of the Comorian economy. The strategic objective is to promote a viable industrial fabric, made up of small and medium-sized businesses with high potential for creating added value and jobs, capable of meeting the needs of the population and penetrating new markets with quality products. This is to be achieved   by creating initiatives for training young people, facilitating access to financing and technology transfer projects, supporting small and medium-sized businesses in the manufacturing sector, strengthening public-private partnerships and creating a favorable business climate.

The three largest contributors to GDP in Comoros are the services, agriculture and manufacturing sectors. In 2023, the service sector contributed US$600 million to the economy, equivalent to 49.4% of GDP. This is followed by the contribution of the agriculture sector valued at US$400 million, equivalent to about 35.3% of GDP. The manufacturing sector contributed US$100 million, representing 5.4% of GDP in 2023. In the same period, the materials sector (which includes mining) contributed US$31.1 million, equivalent to 2.6% of GDP while the shares of the information and communications (ICT) and energy sectors were valued at US$45 million (3.7% of GDP) and US$40 million (3.5% of GDP), respectively.

On the Current Path, the services sector will extend its dominance in the economy by 2043 to US$1.6 billion (57% of GDP). Although the contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP will decline, it will continue to remain the second-largest contributor over the forecast period. Its contribution will be valued at US$600 million (equivalent to 22% of GDP) in 2043. The contribution of manufacturing to GDP in Comoros will increase to constitute 8.4% (valued at US$0.2 billion) of GDP by 2043. The material sector in Comoros will contribute to GDP with a share of 3.1% of GDP in 2043. The energy sector will contribute 2.6% by 2043.  The contribution of ICT will reach 6.8% by 2043.

The relative decline of the agricultural sector and the expansion of the manufacturing sector reflect the anticipated structural transformation of the Comoros as set out in its “Plan Comores Emergent 2030” and its “Document de Stratégie Pays 2021-2025”.

Chart 19 presents the contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP in the Current Path and in the Manufacturing scenario, from 2023 to 2043. The data is in US$ and % of GDP.

In the Manufacturing scenario, Comoros makes slight progress in industrialisation compared to the Current Path. By 2043, the share of the manufacturing sector in GDP is about 9.7% (US$0.3 billion) — about 1.3 percentage points of GDP above the Current Path. It means that an aggressive manufacturing transition can add an extra US$1 million above the Current Path to the economy of Comoros.

Chart 20 depicts exports and imports as a percentage of GDP, from 2000 to 2043, in the Current Path and in the AfCFTA scenario.

The AfCFTA scenario represents the impact of fully implementing the African Continental Free Trade Agreement by 2034. The scenario increases exports in manufacturing, agriculture, services, ICT, materials and energy exports. It also includes improved multifactor productivity growth from trade and reduced tariffs for all sectors.

Visit the theme on AfCFTA for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

Historically, Comoros' economy is less open to trade compared to other lower-middle-income countries in Africa. In 1990, the sum of Comoros’ exports and imports stood at 35.8% of GDP, which was far below the average of 48.1% for lower-middle-income countries. By 2023, trade openness in Comoros had jumped to 40.7% of GDP —  still below the 46.2% average for lower-middle-income Africa. On the Current Path, this trend will continue as the sum of Comoros’ exports and imports will reach 51.4% of GDP by 2043, below the average 53.4% of GDP for lower-middle-income countries in Africa. Although trade openness remains low in Comoros, it is worth highlighting that the country has made significant efforts in recent years to close the gap with other lower-middle-income economies in Africa. Between 1990 and 2023, this gap was reduced from 12.3 percentage points to 5.5 percentage points. By 2043, this gap should be less than 3 percentage points.

Over the years, efforts have been made to improve the country’s trade. Comoros is a member of several regional and bilateral trade agreements. The Union of the Comoros is a member of the Organization of the Islamic Conference and the Arab League. It is a member of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC), the Indian Ocean Rim States Association (IORA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) - whose purpose is to reduce trade barriers by creating a common market. In addition, improvements have recently been made to the country's WTO accession process and, in February 2023, the Union of the Comoros ratified the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The country's main exports are cloves, ylang-ylang (Comoros is the world's leading producer of this essential oil), vanilla and agricultural products. The main imports are food products (particularly rice, meat and wheat), mineral fuels and vehicles.

This ratification should enable the Comoros to build on its economic strengths and better position itself on the regional market. For example, Comoros will be able to use essential oils and spices to export to countries such as India. It can also use vanilla and cloves to create value chains around these products and export them to countries such as Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti and others. However, the country remains concerned about overcustom revenue losses which account for between 40% and 50% of total government revenue if the AfCFTA is fully implemented.

In 1990, the total export volume of Comoros stood at US$48.6 million, constituting 8.8% of GDP, far below the average of 23.4% for lower-middle-income countries in Africa. By 2023, Comoros’ exports stood at US$100 million, equivalent to 9% of GDP, far below the average of 20.5% for lower-middle-income Africa. On the Current Path, total exports in Comoros will reach 20.8% of GDP valued at US$469.6 million. It will remain below the average for lower-middle income countries. The country's main export partners are Turkey (23.4% of the total), India (19.3% of the total), the United Arab Emirates (8.9% of the total), the United States (8.6% of the total) and Indonesia (8.1% of the total).

In terms of imports, Comoros’ total imports grew from US$148 million, equivalent to 27% of GDP, in 1990 to US$389 million, representing 31.8% of GDP, in 2023. At that rate, Comoros’ total imports as a proportion of GDP were higher than the estimated average of 25.7% for lower-middle-income African countries in the same year. Its main partners are the United Arab Emirates (24.9% of the total), China (19.3% of the total), India (11.5% of the total), France (8.0% of the total) and Tanzania (7.2% of the total). On the Current Path, total imports to Comoros will reach US$976 million (32.7% of GDP) by 2043. The high import volumes coupled with the lower exports result in a trade deficit. The World Bank reports that in the same year, Comoros' trade deficit amounted to 22.3% of GDP in 2023 (compared with 20.7% a year earlier).

Chart 21 presents the trade balance in the Current Path and in the AfCFTA scenario, from 2023 to 2043 as a percentage of GDP.

Comoros has a chronic deficit in its trade balance. Like most African countries, it imports large volumes of mostly finished or processed goods. Its export quantities are small, and most of it is raw materials, with little or no value addition occurring within the country. This results in low export revenues and higher import expenditures. Comoros’ trade deficit in 2023 constituted 22.9% of GDP, which was above the average of 5.1% for lower-middle-income countries in Africa. In the AfCFTA scenario, the sum of Comoros’ exports and imports as a percentage of GDP will reach 56.1% by 2043, far above its Current Path.

However, the AfCFTA scenario appears to have no significant impact on the trade deficit in 2043. This may be due to the fact that Comoros is a very small economy. In addition, this weak reaction of the Comorian economy to the AfCFTA scenario may be due to the challenges that the country would have to face to better enjoy the benefits of free trade. In fact, the Comorian economy needs to step up the construction of the rural and urban road infrastructures needed to improve communication between towns and better transport goods to export centres. The government should strengthen the development of industry, thereby diversifying exports.

Chart 22 presents the Current Path of access to electricity for urban, rural and the total population from 2000 to 2043.

The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario involves ambitious investments in road and renewable energy infrastructure, improved electricity access and accelerated broadband connectivity. It emphasises adopting modern technologies to enhance government efficiency and incorporates significant investments in major infrastructure projects like rail, ports, and airports while highlighting the positive impacts of renewables and ICT.

Visit the themes on Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

Infrastructure development is crucial for economic growth and diversification. Modern infrastructure can improve productivity, augment healthy lifestyles, boost educational outcomes and facilitate government effectiveness. In this study, we focus on both physical and digital infrastructure, including roads, electricity access and ICT. Despite the efforts made by the government to improve the quantity and quality of its infrastructure, Comoros' infrastructure stock is limited. The Africa Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI) consists of four composite indicators — transport, electricity, ICT, and water supply and sanitation needs. In 2022, Comoros had an AIDI score of 25.09 and ranked 22 out of 54 African countries. In 2024, Comoros is likely to be ranked very low on the AIDI, placing it among the bottom countries in terms of infrastructure development on the continent due to its limited infrastructure capabilities in areas like electricity, transportation and water sanitation.

Physical infrastructure, such as roads and railways, is a critical driver of economic growth and an important component of development. It facilitates the movement of people, goods and services, promotes intra-country trade and serves as an enabler of social service provision such as education and health.

In 2023, the total length of roads in Comoros was estimated to be 932.3 km of which only 722.3 km, equivalent to 77.2%, was paved. Yet, this percentage is above the average of 40% for lower-middle-income countries in Africa. Since the launch of the “Plan Comores Emergent”, the government has undertaken a vast project to upgrade its road network in order to facilitate interconnections between the country's major cities and economic hubs. For example, in 2023, Comoros, with financing from the African Development Bank, has initiated the “Programme de Réhabilitation du Réseau Routier (PRRR) Phase IV Projet de Réhabilitation de la RN4, section Bahani-GTE-Tsikoudia (20km) et la RN3 section Itsikoudi - Chézani (17km). The project should help to (i) reduce transport costs; (ii) open up production areas, thereby improving the living conditions of the population in the Zone of Influence; and (iii) adapt the road network to the population's transport needs and to the effects of climate change. In July 2O24, the President of the Union of the Comoros, Azali Assoumani, and the President of the African Development Bank Group, Akinwumi Adesina, inaugurated the 49.2-kilometer paved road section of Route Nationale 2 (RN2). The rehabilitated road will increase average annual daily traffic by 27%, reduce operating costs by 30% for light vehicles and 33% for heavy goods vehicles. The section will also reduce average journey times by 50%.

On the Current Path, the total road network in Comoros will increase. By 2043, it will rise to 1 598 km with paved roads constituting 80.7%, well above the average of 62.8% in Africa’s lower-middle-income countries.

The African Energy Commission (AFREC) reports that there are two main sources of energy in Comoros: vegetable and woody biomass, which accounts for around 95% of national demand, is used for household purposes. Other energy sources (electricity, butane gas) have a negligible share (2%). There is no oil refinery in the country, and consequently all petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and kerosene, have to be imported, mainly from the Emirates. The Comorian energy sector is facing a colossal energy deficit due to the constraints weighing on the sector. Exorbitant production costs and inefficient sector organisation are the structural problems at the root of the crisis affecting the Comorian energy sector. Comoros is the African country with the highest energy loss rate and the lowest cost recovery rate. According to estimates, 48% of the electricity produced is lost, and only 33% of the energy sold is actually paid for. Furthermore, the Comorian energy sector faces a lack of infrastructure and substantial funding.

However, in recent years, the government has undertaken numerous projects to improve energy production. The strategy draws up an inventory and assesses the energy potential of the renewable energy sources identified on the territory of Comoros. For example, in partnership with the French government, the country has undertaken several renewable energy projects on the islands. In addition, the African Development Bank's 2021-2025 Country Strategy Paper for Comoros prioritised the development of high-quality, sustainable basic infrastructure in the energy sector. This strategy will focus on increasing the production and distribution of cleaner, less expensive energies, in particular renewable energies. Thus, the country should be able to reduce the rate of technical losses from 30% in 2020 to 20% in 2025, and increase the billing rate from 68% to 80% over the same period.

In recent years, Comoros has made great improvements in energy access. In 2023, an average of 86.7% of Comorians had access to electricity - far higher than the 71.6% in other lower-middle-income African countries. On the Current Path, access to electricity should reach 99.0% in 204, which will be above the average for Comoros’s income-group peers (estimated at 83.6% in 2043).

Despite this impressive access rate, there are disparities in favour of urban dwellers. In 2023, all Comorians living in urban centres had access to electricity compared with 80.9% in rural areas. This disparity in access to electricity in favour of urban residents will continue although the gap will be closed so that by 2043, 95.4% of rural residents will also have access to electricity. This suggests that the government needs to intensify its rural electrification projects to bridge the gap in electricity access among rural-urban dwellers.

The Digital Economy covers the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services related to telecommunications and Information and Communication Technologies. It is a sector with strong development potential in its own right, and a catalyst of productivity and innovation for other development sectors. In line with the “Plan Stratégique Comores Émergent” (PSCE - Emerging Comoros Strategic Plan), Comoros is constantly demonstrating its willingness to digitise its economy, notably with the “Projet d'Appui à la Digitalisation de l'Économie Comorienne” (PADEC - Support Project for the Digitization of the Comorian Economy), ratified in 2024. The latter is part of the implementation of the national digital strategy drawn up in 2018. The aim of PADEC is to set up a digital infrastructure such as a datacenter and incubator, digital facilitators and other support measures to develop the digital sector. In 2024, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) ranked Comoros 25th in Africa on the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Development Index, with a score of 46.5 out of 100. In terms of cybersecurity, the country is in Category 4 of the ITU assessment. Its main strength lies in its legislative measures. However, efforts are still needed to improve technical measures, organisational capabilities, skills development and international cooperation.

In 2023, Comoros had a mobile broadband subscription rate of 89.6 per 100 people, far above the average of 65.7 for lower-middle-income countries in Africa. On the Current Path, mobile broadband subscriptions will rise to 154.1 per 100 people in 2043— 3.3% above the average of its income-group peers. However, Comoros’ progress in fixed broadband access, like in many other African countries, has lagged. In 2023, the total number of fixed broadband subscriptions in the country was estimated at about 2.4 per 100 people — far below the average of 4.2 per 100 people in other lower-middle-income countries in Africa. In the Current Path, fixed broadband subscriptions will rise to 26.8 per 100 people by 2043, above the average of 21.7 subscriptions per 100 people for lower-middle-income African economies. One of the main pillars of the “Stratégie Comores Numériques 2028” is to increase the quantity and quality of internet services in Comoros. In 2023, the country had 230 500 Internet users. The internet penetration rate stood at 27.3% of the total population, suggesting that 72.7% of the population remained offline.

Chart 23 presents the number of people using cookstoves in the Current Path and in the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, from 2023 to 2043.

Our modelling distinguishes between three types of cooking stoves: traditional, improved and modern. In 2023, 10.2% of households in Comoros used traditional stoves with firewood or charcoal for cooking, while 59.3% used improved cooking stoves and 30.4% used modern stoves. This means that an overwhelming majority of people in Comoros rely on improved stoves for cooking, which contributes little to pollution and carbon emissions and has little negative impact on the health of these households. A similar trend is observed in most lower-middle-income countries in Africa with 48% and 48.2% using improved and modern cookstoves, respectively.

Based on the Infrastructure scenario, it is projected all people in Comoros will have access to electricity by 2043. As a result, 58.3% of households in Comoros will use modern fuel for cooking in the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario in 2043. This figure will be lower than the average for the country’s income-group peers at 70%, but far higher than the 39.7% in the Current Path by 2043.

Chart 24 presents the percentage of the population and number of people with access to mobile and fixed broadband in the Current Path and in the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, from 2023 to 2043. The user can toggle between mobile and fixed broadband.

In the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, access to fixed broadband will rise to 34.4 subscriptions per 100 people by 2043. This will be above the average of 21.7 for lower-middle-income African countries in 2043. In the case of access to mobile broadband, due to the aggressive performance of the Current Path forecast, the rate will reach 154 subscriptions by 2043, while the Large Infrastructure scenario does not have an impact.

Chart 25 presents the trends in FDI, aid and remittances in the Current Path and in the Financial Flows scenario as a percentage of GDP, from 1990 to 2043.

The Financial Flows scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious increase in inward flows of worker remittances, aid to poor countries and an increase in the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) and additional portfolio investment inflows. We reduce outward financial flows to emulate a reduction in illicit financial outflows.

Visit the theme on Financial Flows for our conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

The support demonstrated by the Comorian authorities to improve the business environment, enhance investment conditions and attract foreign investors has led to a series of measures aimed at encouraging the inflow of productive capital. The liberal Investment Code of 2007 is a key element in this effort, ensuring the free movement of capital, significantly strengthening the rights of domestic investors by introducing a number of incentives, mainly tax-based, for new businesses.

In Comoros, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows remain marginal, despite the tax concessions and benefits offered by the government, which is resolutely striving to improve the business climate and institutional stability. In 1990, the total FDI inflow to Comoros was equivalent to a paltry 0.1% of GDP — far below the average of 0.6% of GDP for lower-middle-income countries in Africa. By 2023, FDI inflows to Comoros reached 0.7% of GDP, continusouly far below the average of 2.7% of GDP for lower-middle-income African countries. Comoros' FDI is mainly concentrated in a few sectors, including tourism, fishing, agriculture and energy. In terms of countries investing in Comoros, France has historically been the largest investor, followed by China and India. Over the past decade, the Chinese have invested in the country to pave roads and build new schools, mosques, markets, government buildings (including the parliament building), a new airport, a center to facilitate tourism and a sports stadium.

Comoros is a member of several regional trade agreements, which can provide foreign investors with access to the markets of other countries in the region. Nevertheless, the poor quality of infrastructure, the limited size of the domestic market, geographical isolation, frequent water and electricity shortages, limited natural resources and an unskilled workforce are all factors hindering FDI inflows. In addition, property rights are not well protected and contracts are poorly enforced. The judicial system, based on both Sharia (Islamic law) and the French legal code, is weak and subject to political influence. Corruption is reported at all levels of government and is exacerbated by internal political conflicts and competition for resources between the administrations of the three islands. Comoros is ranked 8th out of 180 economies in the Corruption Perceptions Index 2023, and 132nd out of 184 countries in the latest Index of Economic Freedom.

Despite these challenges, the Comorian government is committed to reforming the investment code and setting up a single point of contact for business start-ups. The aim is to create fiscal facilities for multinational firms and improve the business climate and institutional stability. On the Current Path, FDI inflows are expected to marginally rise to 1.3% of GDP by 2043. However, this will still be below the Current Path average of 3.5% for lower-middle-income countries in Africa by 2043.

Net official development assistance (ODA) consists of disbursements of loans made on concessional terms (net of repayments of principal) and grants by official agencies of the members of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC), by multilateral institutions, and by non-DAC countries to promote economic development and welfare in countries and territories in the DAC list of ODA recipients. Historically, Comoros received relatively more foreign aid than other lower-middle-income African countries. In 1990, the total aid received by Comoros constituted 10.4% of GDP, compared to 6.5% in other lower-middle-income African countries in the same period.

By 2023, total aid as a percentage of GDP stood at 9.8%, equivalent to US$119.4 million. This was far above to the average of 1.5% for other lower-middle-income countries in Africa. On the Current Path, foreign aid will decline to 7.5% of GDP in 2043, although the absolute amount will increase to US$223.5 million by 2043. However, this will still be higher than the average of 0.7% of GDP for other lower-middle-income countries in Africa. Despite its positive trend in value, the lack of dynamism in Comoros' aid absorption capacities and the sometimes lengthy disbursement procedures are a source of fragmentation and delays, reducing the amounts of public aid to be disbursed.

Remittances to Comoros are the income that migrants and short-term employees send back to the country. Remittances are an important source of income for Comoros, and they help support the economy. These remittances are mainly spent on direct family assistance for direct consumption, health and education. Only a small amount is actually invested or saved in the country. The World Bank considers the Comoros to be among the most heavily dependent countries on migrant remittances in Africa. In 1990, total remittance inflow to Comoros was valued at US$5.5 million, equivalent to 1% of GDP which was almost half the average rates for its lower-middle-income peers.

By 2023, this had grown rapidly so that Comoros received US$181 million in remittances, constituting 15% of GDP, well above the average of 3.3% for lower-middle-income Africa. Remittances to the islands are not very diversified. They mainly come from France - 90% of these remittances are from France, and 10% from the rest of the world. On the Current Path, remittances to Comoros will increase to US$268.4 million (9.4% of GDP), still exceeding the average of 2.3% of GDP projected for lower-middle income countries.

Chart 26 presents government revenue in the Current Path and in the Financial Flows scenario, from 2020 to 2043. The data is in US$ 2017 and % of GDP. 

Wagner's law, or the law of increasing state activity, is the observation that public expenditure increases as national income rises. It is reasonable to expect that government revenues will increase as a per cent of GDP in the Financial Flows scenario compared to the Current Path forecast.

Structural transformation challenges facing the Comorian government require increased financial funding. Theoretically, it is commonly accepted according to Wagner's Law that public spending increases with national income. Intuitively, we can therefore expect an increase in public revenue as a percentage of GDP in the Financial Flows scenario, compared to the current trajectory.

For the African Development Bank, the Comorian budget deficit improved from 1.1% of GDP in 2022 to 0.9% in 2023 due to greater rationalisation of public spending, policies aimed at broadening the tax base (from the current tax burden of 12.6% of GDP) and rising oil prices. Public debt fell from 45.3% of GDP in 2022 to 41.8% in 2023. However, the risk of debt surge is high, due to the limited reimbursement capacity of non-concessional loans. The current account deficit expanded from 0.6% of GDP in 2022 to 6.1% in 2023, due to increased imports for public infrastructure projects, reduced clove exports and declining external financing.

In 2023, the government’s total revenue in Comoros amounted to US$229.1 million, equivalent to 19% of GDP — higher than the average of lower-middle-income countries in Africa (with 18%). However, Comoros’ revenue without aid, estimated at 9% of GDP, is far below the average of 16.2% for lower-middle-income countries in Africa. This is an indication of low government capacity.

The Financial Flows scenario has a marginal impact on government revenue in Comoros. In this scenario, government revenue will rise to US$694.6 million in 2043, representing 23.2% of GDP, above the average of 21.4% for lower-middle-income countries in Africa in the same year. Compared to the Current Path, the Financial Flows scenario will improve Comoros' government revenues by barely an extra US$46.9  million in 2043.

This highlights the urgency for the Comorian government to implement policies targeted at attracting more financial flows, particularly foreign direct investment (FDI), into the country. These policy measures require a clear improvement in the country's financial system, which considerably limits the inflow of international financial flows. The small financial sector still lacks adequate regulation or supervision, and many Comorians are without bank accounts and rely on informal lending.

Chart 27 presents the Current Path of government effectiveness comparing the country to the average for the Africa income group, from 2002 to 2043.

The World Bank’s index on government effectiveness captures perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government's commitment to such policies.

Good governance is crucial for economic advancement. Enhanced national security and stability foster a favorable environment for both domestic and foreign investment, allowing governments to implement sustainable development strategies more successfully. Comoros faces significant governance challenges, including corruption, inefficient public administration and limited decentralisation. According to the 2023 Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) report, Comoros scored 43.86 out of 100, ranking 40th out of 54 African countries. This score is below the African average of 45.8 and highlights the substantial room for improvement in governance practices. Scoring 180 countries around the world, the Corruption Perceptions Index^[1] is the leading global indicator of public sector corruption. In 2024, Comoros has a score of 21, with a change of 1 since the previous year, meaning it ranks 158 out of 180 countries.

Comoros’ economic freedom score is 51.4, making its economy the 138th freest in the 2024 Index of Economic Freedom. Its rating has decreased by 0.6 point from last year, and Comoros is ranked 30th out of 47 countries in the sub-Saharan Africa region. The country’s economic freedom score is lower than the world’s and regional averages.

Comoros scores poorly in terms of government effectiveness, with a World Bank rating of 0.9 out of 5 in 2023. This reflects the country's challenges in public administration, including the lack of skilled civil servants and inadequate decentralisation. On the Current Path, the governance effectiveness score is projected to slightly increase to 1.4 by 2043, below the projected average score of 2.3 for lower-middle-income African countries.

Chart 28 presents security, capacity and inclusion index for the Current Path versus the Governance scenario, in 2023 and 2043.

This scenario assumes better governance: stability, capacity, and inclusion. It measures a state’s progress using the average of these three indices. To this end, it includes an index (0 to 1) for each dimension, with higher scores indicating improved outcomes.

Visit the theme on Governance for a full conceptualisation and details on the scenario structure and interventions.

As in most African countries, the quality of governance remains a real challenge for the Comoros. In 2023, its score on the composite governance index was 0.33, far below the average of 0.46 for lower-middle-income African countries. However, the decomposition of this indicator into its three dimensions of security, capacity and inclusion, shows that the country has managed to improve its governance even in terms of security (0.68), despite inclusion (0.40) and capacity (0.20) still remaining a real challenge.

In the Governance scenario, Comoros' score on the governance security index will improve to 0.8 by 2043, at which point it will be about 11.4% above the Current Path by 2043 and slightly above the average of lower-middle-income Africa in the same year (0.7). Governance capacity will also improve in the Governance scenario, with its score increasing to 0.4 by 2043, constituting a 16% improvement above the Current Path in 2043. In terms of inclusion, the Governance scenario will improve Comoros' score on the governance inclusion index to above the Current Path of 9%. By 2043, Comoros’s score on inclusion will be 0.5, above the Current Path, but below the average of lower-middle-income countries in Africa in 2043 (0.6). In the Governance scenario, Comoros aims to improve its governance practices and the governance effectiveness is projected to rise to 2 by 2043, compared to the 1.4 of the Current Path.