Cameroon

Chart 1 is a political map of Cameroon.

Cameroon is located in Central Africa and shares borders with Nigeria to the west, Chad to the northeast, the Central African Republic to the east, and the Republic of the Congo, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea to the south. Its coastline along the Gulf of Guinea (Atlantic Ocean) lies to the southwest. With a land area of approximately 475 442 km2, Cameroon is often described as “Africa in miniature” due to its geographic, climatic and cultural diversity. 

According to the World Bank classification, Cameroon is a lower-middle-income country, ranking 155th out of 193 countries in the 2025 Human Development Index. The capital city is Yaoundé, in the Centre Region, while Douala, on the coast, serves as the country’s economic hub. Other major cities include Garoua, Maroua, Bamenda, Buea and Bafoussam. The country is administratively divided into 10 regions.

Cameroon’s topography ranges from coastal plains to mountains in the west (notably Mount Cameroon, the highest peak in West Africa at 4 040 meters). It extends to savannas and semi-arid zones in the north. Cameroon has a diverse climate, generally divided into a humid, equatorial south and a drier, tropical north. The southern region has heavy rainfall and high temperatures, with two rainy and two dry seasons in the central and southern highlands. The northern tropical zone is drier, with a distinct dry season from October to April and a single rainy season from May to September. Annual rainfall varies widely: from over 10 000 mm in the coastal town of Debundscha, among the wettest places on Earth, to less than 500 mm in the arid northern Sahelian zone. This climatic gradient contributes to regional disparities in agriculture, water access and economic activities.

The population was estimated at 28 million in 2023, with a national density of around 60 inhabitants per km2. Cameroon is highly urbanised, with more than 56% of the population living in urban areas, particularly in Douala and Yaoundé. 

Cameroon is home to over 250 ethnic groups and languages, making it one of the most culturally diverse countries in Africa. The country's population includes the Bantu in the south, the Sudanic-speaking peoples in the north, and various indigenous groups. The two official languages are French and English, a legacy of its colonial history under French and British rule. However, over 200 local languages are spoken across the country. After gaining independence from France in 1960 and the British-administered Southern Cameroon in 1961, Cameroon adopted a federal system, later replaced by a unitary state in 1972 and has only had two presidents since its independence in 1960: Ahmadou Ahidjo (1960-1982) and Paul Biya (1982-present), one of the world’s longest-serving leaders. 

The political system is a unitary presidential republic with a bicameral parliament composed of the National Assembly (180 members) and the Senate (100 members). Administratively, it is divided into ten semi-autonomous regions, each under the administration of an elected regional council. A presidentially appointed governor heads each region. The regions are subdivided into 58 divisions (French: départements) headed by presidentially appointed divisional officers (préfets). The divisions are further split into subdivisions (arrondissements), headed by assistant divisional officers (sous-préfets). The districts, administered by district heads (chefs de district), are the smallest administrative units. 

Following protests and several violent clashes, a 1990 constitutional amendment introduced multiparty elections and governance in the country. Consequently, the country adopted multiparty elections and universal suffrage in 1992. The incumbent president, Paul Biya, who has been in office since 1982, and his party (Cameroon People's Democratic Movement), have won every election since 1992 amidst protests and allegations of electoral fraud and intimidation by the opposition. A controversial bill passed in 2008 removed term limits and allowed the president to run for an unlimited number of terms. The last senatorial and presidential elections in 2018 further entrenched Paul Biya's reign for an additional 7 years. More than 18 complaints filed by opposition parties to the Constitutional Court were rejected. In 2025, despite waves of protests and uprisings, Paul Biya was re-elected for an eighth term in presidential elections. 

Cameroon is a founding member of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) and also belongs to the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), the African Union (AU), the Commonwealth, the Organisation internationale de la Francophonie (OIF) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) (since 1995). Cameroon's economy is diversified, relying on agriculture, oil, forestry, and mining, though it faces persistent structural challenges. In 2023, GDP per capita stood at US$3 809. Despite rich natural resources, the country continues to grapple with regional disparities, governance issues and socio-political tensions in the Northwest and Southwest regions.

Chart 2 presents the Current Path of the population structure, from 1990 to 2043.

Cameroon’s population has expanded steadily over the past three decades, increasing from 11.3 million in 1990 to approximately 28.4 million in 2023, an increase of roughly 151%. Under the Current Path, the population will reach 46.2 million by 2043. This sustained demographic expansion will significantly shape labour markets, infrastructure demand and public service delivery over the next two decades.

The share of the working-age population (15–64 years) has risen from 50.5% in 1990 to 55.5% in 2023 and will increase further to 60.1% by 2043. At the same time, the proportion of children under 15 has declined from 46.8% in 1990 to 41.6% in 2023 and will fall to 35.6% by 2043. Although the elderly population (65+) declined from 3.6% to 2.9% over the same period, it is projected to increase modestly to 4.3% by 2043.

With a median age of 18.8 years in 2023, projected to rise to 22.4 years by 2043, Cameroon remains a predominantly youthful society. This demographic structure presents a potential demographic dividend, but only if accompanied by sustained investment in education, skills development and employment-intensive sectors. Otherwise, rapid labour force expansion could intensify unemployment and social pressures.

The decline in the share of children reflects a gradual fertility transition. Cameroon’s total fertility rate fell from 6.4 births per woman in 1990 to 4.4 in 2023, though it remains above the lower-middle-income African average (3.9) and the continental average (4.1). Structural factors, including socio-cultural norms, economic insecurity and uneven access to reproductive health services, continue to sustain relatively high fertility. Under the Current Path, fertility will decline further to 3.4 births per woman by 2043.

As a result, the total dependency ratio will fall from 0.80:1 in 2023 to 0.66:1 by 2043, signalling a gradual easing of demographic pressures. However, realising the benefits of this transition will depend on the country’s ability to accelerate structural transformation, expand formal employment and enhance human capital to absorb a rapidly growing workforce.

Chart 3 presents a population distribution map for 2023.

In 2023, Cameroon’s average population density stood at 0.60 persons per hectare, below the lower-middle-income African average of 0.80. Despite sustained demographic growth, overall density remains moderate by regional standards. However, national averages mask significant spatial disparities that have important policy implications.

Population distribution is highly uneven. The central and littoral regions, particularly Yaoundé and Douala, host a large share of the population, driven by internal migration linked to employment opportunities, access to education, and infrastructure availability. Parts of the West, North-West and South-West are also relatively dense due to fertile soils and active agricultural and commercial economies.

By contrast, the East, Adamawa and Far North, though geographically extensive, remain sparsely populated, reflecting geographic remoteness, lower levels of urbanisation and, in some areas, persistent security challenges. These imbalances contribute to unequal access to services, infrastructure gaps and divergent development outcomes.

Under the Current Path, population density will rise to 0.98 persons per hectare by 2043, still below the projected LMIC African average of 1.21 persons per hectare. This trajectory suggests continued rural-to-urban migration and spatial concentration of economic activity, reinforcing the need for targeted regional development strategies, improved connectivity and balanced territorial planning to reduce disparities and manage urban expansion effectively. 

Chart 4 presents the urban and rural population in the Current Path, from 1990 to 2043.

Since 1990, Cameroon has undergone rapid urbanisation, with the share of the urban population rising from 40% to nearly 60% in 2023, an increase of 20 percentage points over three decades. This places the country well above the 2023 lower-middle-income African average of 49.2%. Urban–rural parity was reached as early as 2007, ahead of many regional peers.

Under the Current Path, urbanisation is projected to intensify, with 68.4% of the population, about 31.6 million people, living in urban areas by 2043, compared to 31.6% (14.6 million people) in rural areas. This far exceeds the projected LMIC African average of roughly 58% for the same year.

Urban growth has been driven by natural population increase and sustained rural–urban migration toward major centres such as Douala and Yaoundé, where economic activity and public services are concentrated. While urbanisation can enhance productivity through agglomeration economies and industrial clustering, it also creates mounting pressure on housing, transport systems, sanitation, energy supply and basic service provision, particularly in informal and peri-urban settlements.

Although the rural population’s share is declining, its absolute size will still increase from 11.3 million in 2023 to 14.6 million by 2043. This dual dynamic, rapid urban expansion alongside continued rural population growth, calls for integrated urban planning, strengthened municipal governance and targeted rural development strategies. Managing urbanisation effectively will be central to transforming demographic change into sustained economic growth and inclusive structural transformation.

Chart 5 presents GDP in market exchange rates (MER) and growth rate in the Current Path, from 1990 to 2043.

Despite substantial natural resource endowments, including oil, gas, timber and minerals, Cameroon remains a lower-middle-income economy characterised by persistent poverty and limited structural transformation. While the economy has gradually diversified, it still relies heavily on primary commodities. GDP at market exchange rates (MER) increased from approximately US$16.0 billion in 1990 to US$43.3 billion in 2023, reflecting sustained but moderate expansion over three decades.

Several structural weaknesses, including inadequate infrastructure, limited industrial development, inefficient institutions and vulnerability to external commodity price fluctuations, have hindered economic growth. The economy's reliance on exports such as crude oil, timber and cocoa makes it susceptible to global market volatility. Additionally, climate variability, especially droughts in the northern region and irregular rainfall, has negatively impacted agricultural output, which is vital for employment and livelihoods.

A shallow financial system, with limited long-term credit and constrained capital markets, has also restricted private-sector development and productivity growth. Although efforts toward diversification, such as agro-industrial development and digital innovation, are underway, they require stronger coordination, scaling and sustained investment.

Through the National Development Strategy 2020–2030 (SND30), Cameroon aims to accelerate industrialisation, digital transformation, human capital development and regional equity within a strengthened governance framework. In the Current Path, GDP will reach approximately US$113 billion by 2043, growing at an average annual rate of 4.7%, supported by infrastructure expansion (including hydropower projects such as Lom Pangar and Nachtigal), regional trade integration and business climate reforms.

However, key constraints remain, including uneven electricity access, particularly in rural areas, high youth unemployment, fragility in conflict-affected regions and limited access to international capital markets. Achieving faster, more resilient growth will require deeper structural reforms, strengthened institutional capacity, expanded access to finance and energy, and closer regional cooperation within CEMAC to enhance competitiveness and reduce external vulnerability.

Chart 6 presents the size of the informal economy as per cent of GDP and per cent of total labour (non-agriculture), from 2020 to 2043. The data used in our modelling are largely estimates and may therefore differ from other sources.

The informal economy comprises activities that have market value and would add to tax revenue and GDP if they were recorded. According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), informal employment is often associated with income insecurity, unsafe work conditions and limited access to the rights and benefits accorded to the formal sector. Countries with high informality face a host of development challenges, including higher poverty, lower per capita incomes, greater inequality, and weaker productivity investment, among others.

In line with trends across much of sub-Saharan Africa, the informal sector represents a substantial share of Cameroon’s economy, particularly in urban areas. In 2023, the informal sector in Cameroon accounted for 23.5% of GDP, compared with the average of 30.6% for LMICs in Africa. While this apparent under-representation might reflect modelling assumptions, it also highlights the under-recorded nature of informal production activities and the dominance of agriculture, which is excluded from these estimates in many rural regions.

The primary non-agricultural informal activities in Cameroon occur in retail trade, repair services, informal transportation, tailoring, small-scale manufacturing and domestic work. A considerable proportion of these businesses operate without licenses, lack access to financial services and depend on manual labour and outdated technologies, factors that undermine productivity and income stability. According to Cameroon's Informal Sector Survey, over 60% of informal operators have no formal education or have only completed primary schooling, a barrier to upscaling their operations.

Recognising the scale and significance of the informal sector, the Cameroonian government has launched various initiatives to facilitate progressive formalisation. These include the Plan de Formalisation de l’Economie Informelle (PFEI) and support for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) through financing mechanisms like the National Credit Fund and digital business registration platforms. In addition, tax administration reforms, including the deployment of mobile tax payment systems, aim to widen the tax base while reducing compliance burdens.

In the Current Path, Cameroon’s informal sector will decline gradually to 21.3% of GDP by 2043, remaining far below the 27.0% average for LMICs in Africa. While this reduction may reflect increasing formalisation, it also indicates significant uncertainty in estimation methods, particularly in capturing informal value-added in rapidly evolving urban economies.

Regarding the labour force, about 41.3% was informal in 2023, compared to the average of 57.6% across LMICs in Africa. Informal labour continues to dominate in urban and peri-urban areas, especially among youth, women and those with limited formal education. In the Current Path, the size of the informal labour force will decline to 36.0% of total labour in 2043, forecast to remain below the average of 54.2% for LMICs in Africa in that same year.

Men accounted for 33.7% of informal labour, and women for 49.6%. Female participation in the informal economy is particularly high in Cameroon, especially in petty trade and market vending, which serve as survivalist strategies in the absence of wage employment. The lack of decent work in the formal sector continues to push large segments of the population into informal activities, with significant implications for income inequality and social protection coverage.

Persistent challenges constrain the productivity and sustainability of informal enterprises, including limited access to finance, low capital investment, insecure tenure for business premises and poor integration into formal value chains. Addressing these issues will require a coordinated approach involving financial inclusion strategies, skills development and inclusive urban planning that recognises the economic value of informal labour while offering pathways to formalisation.

Chart 7 presents GDP per capita in the Current Path, from 1990 to 2043, compared with the average for the Africa income group.

Cameroon’s GDP per capita has recorded a slow yet steady rise over the past three decades, rising from US$3 520 in 1990  to roughly US$3 700 in 2023. This level remained below the average of African lower-middle-income countries, which during the same period rose from US$3 850 to US$7 800.

Looking ahead, projections in the Current Path suggest that Cameroon’s GDP per capita will reach US$5 180 by 2043, an improvement of 35.9% over the next two decades. Yet, the country will continue to trail the regional benchmark, with LMICs in Africa expected to reach an average of US$7 800 by the same year. This persistent gap highlights the limitations of Cameroon’s growth model in generating broad-based and sustained improvements in living conditions.

Moreover, GDP per capita figures often obscure deep-seated development challenges. In Cameroon’s case, these include limited investment in human capital, persistent regional and income inequality, vulnerability to climate shocks and a constrained business climate. The country also faces challenges in domestic revenue mobilisation, the effectiveness of social policy and the high prevalence of informal employment, which together restrict the scope for equitable and sustainable development. Addressing these structural weaknesses is essential to translating economic growth into real, inclusive gains in citizens’ welfare.

Chart 8 presents the rate and number of poor people in the Current Path from 2020 to 2043.

In 2022, the World Bank updated the poverty lines to 2017 constant dollar values as follows:

• The previous US$1.90 extreme poverty line is now set at US$2.15, also for use with low-income countries.
• US$3.20 for lower-middle-income countries, now US$3.65 in 2017 values.
• US$5.50 for upper-middle-income countries, now US$6.85 in 2017 values.
• US$22.70 for high-income countries. The Bank has not yet announced the new poverty line in 2017 US$ prices for high-income countries.

Monetary poverty only tells part of the story, however. In addition, the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) measures acute multidimensional poverty by measuring each person’s overlapping deprivations across 10 indicators in three equally weighted dimensions: health, education and standard of living. The MPI complements the international US$ 2.15-a-day poverty rate by identifying who is multidimensionally poor and by showing the composition of multidimensional poverty. The headcount or incidence of multidimensional poverty is often several percentage points higher than that of monetary poverty. This implies that individuals living above the monetary poverty line may still suffer deprivations in health, education and/or standard of living.

In principle, poverty exists when part of the population is unable, by society's standards, to attain a level of well-being considered to be a minimum requirement. The minimum level of well-being can be defined by estimating one or more poverty lines. The definition of a poverty line is generally a function of consumption patterns and the cost of living in the country's main regions or cities. In Cameroon, 43.6% of the population is multidimensionally poor, according to 2022 estimates. The multidimensional poverty index (MPI) value for the country is 0.23, reflecting the depth of deprivations in health, education and living standards, with an average deprivation intensity of 53.2% among the poor.

By utilising the lower-middle-income poverty line of US$3.65 a day (in 2017 PPP), in 2023, 13.2 million people (representing 46.5% of the population) lived in poverty, slightly below the average of 49.1% for other LMICs. In the Current Path, the poverty rate in Cameroon will decline to 34.2%, remaining below the average of 34.8% for lower-middle-income African countries in 2043.

Using the US$2.15 poverty line, also referred to as the extreme poverty rate, 6.6 million people (representing 23.3% of the population) lived in poverty in 2023, also slightly below the average of 23.4% for other LMICs. In the Current Path, the extreme poverty rate in Cameroon will decline to 14.7%, roughly 1 percentage point above the average for LMICs in Africa.

Poverty remains widespread, particularly in rural and conflict-affected areas. National statistics reveal that eight out of ten poor people live in rural areas where infrastructure, public services and livelihoods remain limited. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of poverty reveals significant regional disparities, with the Extreme North, North, and East regions recording the highest poverty rates in the country.

To address these challenges, Cameroon has implemented multiple social protection interventions, most notably the Social Safety Nets Project (Projet de Filets Sociaux), supported by the World Bank. This program offers conditional and unconditional cash transfers to poor households and promotes human capital development through education and health-related incentives. Over 400 000 households have benefited since its inception, contributing to improved consumption, school attendance and resilience to shocks.

In 2023, Cameroon's Human Development Index (HDI) was 0.59, ranking 155th out of 191 countries in the Human Development Report data. This value shows a slight increase from the previous year and is below the global average of 0.74. In addition, Cameroon's overall vulnerability was high and growing due to multiple overlapping crises, including the North-West and South-West (NWSW) conflict, the Lake Chad basin conflict, and the Central African Republic (CAR) refugee crisis. This resulted in a humanitarian crisis where 4.7 million people required assistance.

Chart 9 depicts the National Development Plan.

To promote its medium- and long-term development efforts, Cameroon adopted the National Development Strategy 2020-2030 (SND30) in November 2020. The SND30 succeeds the Growth and Employment Strategy Paper (GESP 2010-2020). It constitutes the second phase of the country’s long-term Vision 2035, which aims to make Cameroon “an emerging, democratic and united country in its diversity”. This strategy aligns with key international and regional commitments, including the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the African Union Agenda 2063 and the CEMAC Regional Economic Programme.

The SND30 aims to structurally transform the Cameroonian economy through various measures to achieve the country's emergence by 2035. The strategy focuses on industrialisation, modernisation of agriculture and improving infrastructure. In other words, the SND30 is rooted in a national vision titled “Cameroon We Want in 2035”, and promotes values such as social cohesion, inclusive development, good governance, peace, bilingualism and environmental sustainability. It aims to foster strong, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, reduce poverty and inequality, and improve citizens’ well-being across the national territory. The strategy is built around four strategic levers, each addressing critical development challenges:

• Strategic lever 1 aims to achieve strong, inclusive and sustainable growth through the structural transformation of the economy. It emphasises industrialisation, economic diversification, and the development of key sectors, such as agro-industry, mining and metallurgy, energy, forestry, and the digital economy. The objective is to raise manufacturing’s share of GDP to 25% by 2030 and significantly increase the volume of non-oil exports.
• Strategic lever 2 focuses on human capital development, aiming to improve the quality and accessibility of education, healthcare, and basic social services, while promoting youth empowerment, gender equality and the resilience of vulnerable groups. The government also prioritises technical and vocational training as a driver of labour market integration.
• Strategic lever 3 addresses employment promotion and economic inclusion. It supports job creation through entrepreneurship, supports small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and modernises agriculture. The aim is to create decent work opportunities and absorb the growing urban and rural labour force, particularly youth and women.
• Strategic lever 4 aims to reinforce governance and institutional performance. This includes strengthening the rule of law, transparency and decentralisation, as well as improving economic planning, public finance management and accountability. The implementation of the decentralisation process, with regional councils now operational, is a key achievement in this regard.

Cameroon's National Development Strategy (NDS30) aligns with international goals, such as the SDGs and Agenda 2063, as well as regional commitments, through performance-based budgets and investments. Early results show progress in infrastructure expansion, access to basic services, digital transformation and macroeconomic stability, despite global challenges. The strategy integrates diverse stakeholders and operates through multi-annual budgets, public investment projects and ongoing evaluations to achieve Vision 2035.

Chart 29 presents GDP per capita in purchasing power parity (PPP) in the Current Path and each of the eight sectoral scenarios. The data is from 2020 with a forecast to 2043.

All sectoral scenarios generate improvements in Cameroon’s GDP per capita by 2043. The largest gains occur in the Governance scenario, followed by AfCFTA and Manufacturing.

In the Governance scenario, GDP per capita (PPP) will reache US$5 588, approximately US$406 above the Current Path. Stronger rule of law, reduced corruption, improved regulatory quality and greater policy credibility enhance investor confidence, increase capital inflows and improve the efficiency of public spending, thereby accelerating growth.

Under the AfCFTA scenario, GDP per capita will rise to US$5 467, about US$285 above the Current Path. Deeper regional integration expands market access, stimulates export diversification and facilitates technology transfer, positioning Cameroon more competitively within ECCAS and CEMAC value chains.

In the Manufacturing scenario, GDP per capita will increase to US$5 361, approximately US$179 above the Current Path. This confirms the catalytic role of industrial expansion in raising productivity, strengthening domestic value addition and generating higher-quality employment.

Together, these results highlight that institutional reform, trade integration and industrial deepening are central drivers of sustained income growth.

Chart 30 presents poverty in the Current Path and for each scenario, from 2020 to 2043. The user can select the number of extremely poor people or the percentage of the population.

Poverty reduction remains one of Cameroon’s central development challenges. All sectoral scenarios will lower poverty rates by 2043 (measured at US$3.65 per day), with the strongest effects in the Governance scenario, followed by Education and Manufacturing.

The Governance scenario delivers the largest impact: 14.2 million people (30.8% of the population) will remain below the poverty line in 2043, which is 3.4 percentage points lower than the Current Path and about 1.6 million fewer poor people. This reflects the broad-based effects of improved public spending efficiency, stronger institutions and more inclusive growth, which enhance service delivery and income opportunities for vulnerable households.

In the Education scenario, 15.1 million people (32.7% of the population) will remain below the poverty line, which is 1.4 percentage points below the Current Path, equivalent to roughly 660 230 fewer poor people. Strengthening human capital improves productivity, earnings potential and labour market outcomes, reinforcing poverty reduction over time.

In the Manufacturing scenario, poverty will decline to 15.2 million people (32.9% of the population), compared to 34.2% on the Current Path. Industrial expansion raises productivity, absorbs labour from lower-productivity sectors and generates spillovers to services and small enterprises. These results highlight that poverty reduction is closely linked to structural transformation and the creation of productive employment, not only to social policy interventions.

Chart 31 presents GDP in the Current Path and in the Combined scenario from 2020 to 2043. The data is in US$ 2017 and at market exchange rates (MER).

The Combined scenario combines all eight sectoral scenarios: Governance, Demographics and Health, Education, Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging, Agriculture, Manufacturing, AfCFTA and Financial Flows.

In the Combined scenario, Cameroon’s GDP will reache US$158.5 billion by 2043, about US$45.5 billion above the Current Path, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 6.7%, compared to 4.9% under the Current Path. These results demonstrate that coordinated reforms across governance, trade, infrastructure, education and industrial policy generate significantly stronger growth outcomes than isolated interventions. An integrated, multisector development strategy therefore offers the most credible pathway to sustained and inclusive economic transformation.

Chart 32 presents GDP per capita in purchasing power parity (PPP) in the Current Path and the Combined scenario. The data is from 2023 with a forecast to 2043.

In the Combined scenario, Cameroon’s GDP per capita will rise to US$6 630 by 2043, approximately US$1 450 higher than the US$5 180 projected under the Current Path. This substantial income gain indicates meaningful improvements in average living standards. The results underscore the importance of a coordinated, multisector reform agenda to accelerate income growth and ensure that structural transformation translates into broader welfare gains.

Chart 33 presents the value-add by sector in the Current Path and in the Combined scenario, for 2023 and 2043. The data is in US$ 2017 and as a percentage of GDP.

Our modelling provides forecasts for six economic sectors, namely agriculture, energy, materials (including mining), manufactures, services and ICTech.

In the Combined scenario, agriculture will record the largest increase in its share of GDP, 2.11 percentage points above the Current Path in 2043, followed by energy (0.46 percentage points) and manufacturing (0.23 percentage points). Other sectors will experience relative declines in their GDP shares, reflecting structural rebalancing toward more productive sectors.

In absolute terms, however, all sectors will expand due to strong cross-sector spillovers. The services sector will record the largest gain, US$27.51 billion above the Current Path, followed by manufacturing (US$7.24 billion), ICT (US$5.13 billion), agriculture (US$2.22 billion), energy (US$1.88 billion) and materials (US$1.57 billion).

These results demonstrate that strengthening agriculture, energy and manufacturing can catalyse economy-wide expansion, reinforcing productivity growth and accelerating structural transformation.

Chart 34 presents the size of the informal sector in the Current Path and in the Combined scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

By 2043, the informal sector will decline to 17% of GDP in the Combined scenario, compared to 21.3% in the Current Path. Informal employment will similarly fall to 24.8% of total labour, significantly below the 36.0% projected under the baseline. This shift reflects stronger formal job creation, particularly in manufacturing and modernised agriculture, supported by improved governance, regulatory reform and economic liberalisation. Expanding formal employment would enhance productivity, broaden the tax base and improve income security, contributing to more inclusive and sustainable growth.

Chart 35 presents poverty in the Current Path and the Combined scenario, for 2023 and 2043.

In the Combined scenario, approximately 11.28 million people (25.1% of the population) are projected to live below the US$3.65 per day poverty line by 2043, compared to 15.79 million people (34.2%) under the Current Path. This implies that about 4.51 million additional Cameroonians could be lifted out of poverty through coordinated, multisector reforms. The reduction in poverty, alongside improvements in income distribution, highlights the inclusive potential of an integrated development strategy that simultaneously advances governance, industrialisation, human capital and structural transformation.

Chart 36 compares life expectancy in the Current Path with the Combined scenario from 2020 to 2043.

In the Combined scenario, life expectancy will increase to 74 years by 2043, 2.9 years higher than under the Current Path. In both scenarios, women are projected to live approximately 2.6 years longer than men. These gains underscore the importance of sustained investment in healthcare systems, preventive services, nutrition, sanitation and basic infrastructure. Strengthening health system resilience and expanding equitable access to quality care will be essential to consolidate improvements in longevity and overall human development.

Chart 37 compares carbon emissions in the Current Path with the Combined scenario from 2020 to 2043. Note that the data is in million tons of carbon, not CO₂ equivalent.

In 2023, Cameroon ranked 79th out of 184 countries in terms of CO₂ emissions. The main sources of pollution in Cameroon are household fuel combustion (biomass for cooking), industrial activities (mining, oil and gas, manufacturing) and waste mismanagement (especially plastic waste). Vehicle emissions also contribute significantly to air pollution, particularly in urban areas like Douala and Yaoundé.

In the Current Path, carbon emissions from fossil fuels will increase from 3.14 million tons to 11.46 million tons by 2043, reflecting rising energy demand associated with economic and population growth. This trajectory underscores the urgency of strengthening environmental governance and integrating climate considerations into development planning.

In the Combined scenario, emissions will reach 10.9 million tons, approximately 560 000 tons lower than the Current Path, demonstrating that stronger growth can be partially decoupled from carbon intensity.

To sustain this balance, the government should prioritise renewable energy expansion, energy efficiency measures and sustainable land-use management. Such investments would help mitigate environmental pressures, enhance climate resilience and align economic transformation with Cameroon’s long-term sustainability and global climate commitments.

Chart 38 compares energy demand and production in the Current Path with the Combined scenario from 2020 to 2043. Production is done in nine types, namely oil, gas, coal, hydro, nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal and other renewables. The data is converted into billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE) to allow for comparisons. Note that energy production could be for domestic use or for export.

The energy sector is central to Cameroon’s structural transformation, with gas, oil and hydropower forming the backbone of supply. In 2023, total energy production amounted to approximately 74 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), exceeding total demand of 54.2 million BOE, resulting in a surplus of 19.8 million BOE.

In the Current Path, however, demand will outpace production around 2034/35, leading to an energy deficit of approximately 41.5 million BOE by 2043. Rising demand reflects expanding economic activity and population growth, highlighting the growing pressure on domestic supply capacity.

In the Combined scenario, the deficit will narrow to 38.7 million BOE, 2.8 million BOE below the Current Path. Energy production will increase substantially to 143.4 million BOE by 2043 (compared to 112.9 million BOE under the baseline), largely driven by expanded hydro and solar generation. At the same time, demand will rise to 182.1 million BOE, compared to 154.4 million in the Current Path.

These projections underscore the need for accelerated investment in renewable energy, grid expansion and energy efficiency to sustain growth, reduce supply vulnerabilities and support long-term energy security.

Chart 39 summarises the policy recommendations.

A forward-looking analysis of Cameroon's development trajectory through 2043 reveals a country with strong potential, but whose current momentum remains insufficient to ensure rapid and inclusive structural transformation. On the Current Path, Cameroon is making gradual progress in terms of economic growth, poverty reduction and improvement in social indicators. However, this progress remains limited by a persistent dependence on primary and extractive sectors, a high level of informality, infrastructure deficits and institutional and governance weaknesses.

Sectoral scenarios clearly show that targeted policies—particularly in governance, trade integration (AfCFTA), manufacturing and education—can generate significant gains in terms of per capita income and poverty reduction. The Combined scenario convincingly illustrates that an integrated and coherent approach to reforms would accelerate economic growth, significantly reduce poverty and informality, while maintaining a growth trajectory compatible with relatively low carbon emissions.

Cameroon can seize several specific opportunities to make the most of its economic potential:

• Agricultural transformation: If the country improves agricultural efficiency, it can free up capital for domestic investment and ensure economic stability for its economy and population.
• A youthful population: Cameroon’s population is predominantly young, with around 60% aged under 35 and a high dependency rate. This offers significant potential for economic growth and social development. Indeed, the young are a driving force for innovation, creativity and labour-market contribution when supported.
• Trade potential: Cameroon’s geographic position on the Gulf of Guinea and its shared borders with six countries make it a potential trade corridor and gateway for the Central African subregion, given greater integration with its neighbours.
• Resource endowment: Cameroon’s substantial natural resources, notably oil, gas, minerals, forests and hydropower, could provide growth potential if increasingly harnessed responsibly and transparently.
• Renewables capacity: Cameroon has considerable hydroelectric and solar capacity that could position it as a future regional energy hub in Central Africa.

Thus, the main challenge for Cameroon is not so much the lack of opportunities, but rather the ability to coordinate, prioritise and effectively implement the necessary structural reforms, in line with the SND30, Vision 2035 and the African Union's Agenda 2063:

Boosting the manufacturing sector: investing in high-quality education and infrastructure is a matter of urgency:

Developing human capital and modernising infrastructure are essential to sustain long-term economic growth. This involves improving the education system, vocational training and increasing research and development. Thus, improving the education system involves implementing reforms to guarantee equitable access to quality education and to promote the skills needed for the professions of the future. The ongoing reforms under the NDS30 already mark a first step, but the government should ensure their effectiveness, especially by reinforcing their gender component. It should also facilitate and encourage the creation of and access to vocational training. In other words, it should set up training programs tailored to the needs of the job market, target emerging sectors, and provide the necessary infrastructure. Finally, incentives to increase research and development should be put in place to facilitate innovation. This can be achieved through award programs for outstanding innovations and direct integration of the best innovators, which is necessary to boost the country’s competitiveness. Added to this are improved roads, ports, airports and communication infrastructures, particularly digital ones, to facilitate trade and attract investment.

Diversifying the economy:

Cameroon faces significant challenges in diversification, particularly its reliance on raw materials, limited access to finance, structural weaknesses in agriculture and a fragile business climate. To address these challenges, it is necessary to invest in higher-value-added sectors such as industry and services, improve agricultural productivity, facilitate access to capital for businesses and strengthen the institutional and policy environment. For example, if the aim is to intensify agricultural production, develop local value chains and encourage agro-industrial processing to improve food security and create jobs: investment in farming technology, irrigation efforts, digitisation of the sector and data-driven farming decisions are needed to reduce reliance on imports. In addition, using planning tools such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can help to better plan resource use and transform existing infrastructure into development corridors. Creating a business-friendly environment, with clear and stable regulations, easy access to financing and infrastructure is important. Administrative procedures need to be simplified to facilitate market access and reduce red tape.

Enhanced governance and efficiency of public finances:

Tackling corruption and improving governance and public financial management are essential to creating a more favourable environment for investment and economic development. This involves government commitments to tax reform, transparent management of public finances, improved governance and political stability. The aim is to simplify the tax system and improve the efficiency of tax collection to finance development projects. The government should encourage tax compliance by rationalising the use of collected taxes and, above all, reinforcing communication around how they are used, by putting in place rigorous control and audit mechanisms to guarantee sound management of public finances. In addition, the government should accentuate the production of public goods via infrastructure to facilitate the operation of the country’s markets and income-generating activities. Finally, the government should guarantee effective governance by improving the business climate through the reduction of corruption and a more transparent judicial system, which are important for reassuring and boosting the confidence of both investors and citizens.

Strengthening resilience to climate shocks:

Strengthening resilience in Cameroon involves a multi-sector approach, including promoting climate-smart agriculture through local knowledge and new techniques, improving urban infrastructure by building green spaces and resilient transport networks, and building the capacity of local communities to manage climate risks. Key initiatives include the Local Governance and Community Resilience Project and the "Green and Resilient North" project, which uses approaches like Climate Smart Villages to enhance adaptation strategies. It is important to implement climate-smart agriculture, i.e. introduce techniques such as conservation agriculture, agroforestry and participatory integrated climate services for agriculture (PICSA) to improve yields and soil health. In addition, there is a need to distribute climate-resilient crop varieties and to provide access to higher-quality seeds and other inputs, while implementing soil and water management practices such as cover crops and small dams to improve water retention and soil fertility. It is also important to improve market access by supporting agricultural cooperatives to enhance producers' bargaining power and access to markets, inputs and credit.  Finally, the country should mainstream climate considerations into public investment cycles and support public-private partnerships for resilience-building activities.

Enhancing access to  finance:

To improve financial access in Cameroon, the government and partner organisations should focus on several key strategies, including embracing digital finance and mobile money, enhancing the microfinance sector, strengthening consumer protection and financial literacy, supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and modernising financial infrastructure. These efforts are designed to expand the availability of financial products for underserved populations, such as those in rural areas, women, and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Maximising the potential of the AfCFTA:

To fully leverage the AfCFTA, Cameroon should focus on reducing trade barriers through modernised and digitalised customs procedures, strengthening the competitiveness of local firms (especially SMEs) by supporting access to finance and compliance with quality standards, and aligning trade liberalisation with a targeted industrial policy centred on agro-industry and light manufacturing. At the same time, deeper regional integration within CEMAC and investments in cross-border transport and logistics infrastructure are essential to integrating Cameroonian firms into regional value chains and to translating trade openness into sustainable, inclusive growth.