Power, industrialisation and climate action in a fossil-fuelled world
Climate justice continues to favour world powers and industrialised economies.
The US’s recent military action against Venezuela is a clear reminder that, despite global commitments to climate action, the strategic pursuit of fossil fuels remains central to the economic and geopolitical interests of industrialised powers. This intervention is not anomalous. Similar patterns have been observed in other resource-rich countries, such as Libya, Iraq, Iran and, to some extent, Nigeria. In these cases, political instability, allegations of corruption among leadership and human rights abuses have often coincided with external interests in oil and gas reserves.
While much of the international debate has focused on the legality of these interventions and the effectiveness of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, a more fundamental question is being overlooked: can climate justice, as articulated under Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13, be realised when the US continue to secure fossil fuel supplies aggressively?
Coal, oil and gas remain the dominant contributors to global climate change, accounting for approximately 90% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Yet, in a period when developing and industrialising countries are increasingly pressured to abandon fossil fuels and transition rapidly to green energy, industrialised economies continue to entrench their access to these same resources. This contradiction exposes how the current global climate agenda distributes moral responsibility and economic adjustment unevenly.
The underlying message of these actions is that even highly industrialised economies still rely on fossil fuels to sustain their industrial capacity. The US, for instance, remains the world’s largest provider of fossil fuel subsidies, including during periods of strong environmental rhetoric, such as President Obama’s administration. Similar subsidy regimes persist across other G7 countries, parts of Europe and East Asia. In 2016, for example, G7 leaders urged all countries to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies by 2025. However, by 2023, G7 fossil fuel subsidies had increased by 15%, reaching US$1.36 trillion.
While SDG 13 calls for climate action and justice, G7 fossil fuel subsidies increased by 15% between 2016 and 2023, reaching US$1.36 trillion
This gap between climate rhetoric and policy practice raises a critical question for SDG 13 accountability and global climate finance: on what basis are developing economies expected to forgo fossil-fuel-based industrialisation when industrialised countries continue to subsidise, secure and rely on the same energy sources? Addressing climate change without confronting this inconsistency risks undermining the credibility of global climate justice and shifting the burden of adjustment onto countries with the least historical responsibility and fiscal capacity.
The dilemma is further reflected in global manufacturing and emissions patterns, where industrial capacity, energy intensity and fossil fuel consumption remain deeply intertwined. The world’s largest manufacturing economies, China (approximately 27.7% of global manufacturing output) and the US (17.3%), are also the largest consumers of fossil fuels. Together, they are responsible for nearly half (47%) of global fossil fuel consumption and rank among the world’s top emitters of carbon dioxide. China alone contributes roughly one-third of global CO2 emissions, followed by the US at around 13% (Figure 1).
By contrast, Africa occupies the opposite end of this industrial-energy spectrum. The continent contributes the least to global greenhouse gas emissions and accounts for only about 2% of global manufacturing output (Figure 2), the lowest of any region worldwide. This underindustrialisation is closely linked to persistent energy constraints that hinder access to reliable, affordable power necessary for industrial development, despite substantial fossil-fuel endowments. These patterns expose the limitations of one-size-fits-all climate prescriptions.
Continued fossil fuel subsidies in the Global North demonstrate that fossil fuels are not merely a transitional input but remain structurally embedded in advanced industrial systems. Expecting developing economies to leap directly into full green industrialisation, without comparable financial capacity, infrastructure and technological buffers, effectively shifts the costs of climate mitigation onto those least responsible for historical emissions.
This reality calls for a fundamental reassessment of how SDG 13 is interpreted and implemented. Climate action must be progressive rather than homogeneous. Industrialised economies, having already reaped the developmental benefits of fossil fuels, should bear a disproportionately greater responsibility for rapidly transitioning to green energy and financing global mitigation efforts. Industrialising economies, by contrast, require policy space to pursue energy pathways that balance industrial growth, energy security and emissions reduction.
Critically, this neither implies an unchecked increase in fossil fuel use nor a relaxation of the transition to green energy. Rather, industrialising economies must be supported in adopting leapfrogging technologies, including high-efficiency power plants, carbon capture and storage, and cleaner combustion technologies, that allow fossil fuels to be used at significantly lower emissions intensity than historical industrialisation pathways. For many countries, this represents the most realistic solution to chronic energy deficits that have long constrained industrial growth.
Green energy, while indispensable, should be viewed as a complement rather than a replacement for traditional energy sources. In the short to medium term, green energy alone cannot reliably meet the large-scale energy demands of heavy manufacturing and industrial operations. Key sources, such as wind and solar, are inherently intermittent, while others, including hydropower, are highly capital-intensive, posing significant challenges for financially constrained developing economies.
Nowhere is the tension between green energy ambitions and fossil fuel realities more evident than in Africa. The continent holds approximately 60% of the world’s solar potential, yet only about 3% has been harnessed. At the same time, the continent possesses significant fossil fuel endowments, accounting for roughly 3.6% of global coal reserves, 7.5% of natural gas reserves and 7.6% of oil reserves. This diverse energy base supports a viable hybrid industrialisation pathway that strategically blends cleaner fossil fuel use with substantial investment in green energy. Such an approach offers a pragmatic route to expanding industrial capacity, closing persistent energy access gaps and making meaningful contributions to SDG 13, while safeguarding the continent’s development and structural transformation priorities.
Africa’s diverse energy base supports a viable hybrid industrialisation pathway that strategically blends cleaner fossil fuel use with substantial investment in green energy
Multilateral development banks and climate finance mechanisms must therefore move beyond ideological binaries and finance energy systems that reflect industrial realities, rather than applying uniform expectations that overlook structural differences in development pathways. This requires prioritising investment in low-emission fossil fuel technologies alongside scaled-up financing for green energy.
Continuing to subsidise fossil fuels in industrialised economies while discouraging their use in developing ones undermines the credibility of global climate leadership. A just energy transition requires redirecting these subsidies toward financing energy transitions in the developing economies, supporting the deployment of industrial-scale renewable energy and integrating clean energy into manufacturing zones and industrial corridors.
Ultimately, climate justice cannot be achieved through moral prescriptions that ignore historical responsibility, industrial realities and global power asymmetries. As long as industrialised economies continue to rely on fossil fuels, economically, strategically and politically, it is neither fair nor feasible to demand that industrialising countries abandon the same pathways without viable alternatives. A credible climate agenda must reconcile development with decarbonisation, recognising fossil fuels as a necessary, though declining, component of industrialisation, while positioning green energy as a critical complementary force rather than a premature replacement.
Image: Alexandra_Koch/Pixabay
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