Imagining democratic futures in Southern Africa
Choices today will shape governance, inclusion and resilience by 2043.
Southern Africa has long been a democratic frontrunner on the continent. Yet, as economic inequality persists, governance falters in delivering basic services and citizen dissatisfaction rises, the subregion faces an uncertain future. To prepare for the challenges ahead, it is not enough to track present trends—stakeholders must actively anticipate and shape the future.
To this end, the Southern African Democratic Futures Conference was convened in Pretoria, South Africa, in October 2024 by International IDEA and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Africa, and facilitated by the Institute for Futures Research at Stellenbosch Business School. It brought together experts and practitioners to explore possible democratic trajectories. The result is a strategic foresight report, Imagining Democratic Futures: Southern Africa Foresight Report 2025, that presents four alternative scenarios for the future of democracy in the region. These scenarios—Continuation, Disciplined Improvement, Collapse, and Transformation—serve as provocations rather than predictions, designed to inspire forward-thinking strategies.
These four scenarios serve as provocations rather than predictions, designed to inspire forward-thinking strategies
Scenario 1: Continuation – entrenched inequality
If current trends persist, democracy in Southern Africa will stagnate. Trust in political institutions will continue to erode, fueling disengagement from electoral processes and pushing citizens toward alternative forms of civic action, such as street protests and online activism. Yet, these spaces too will be constrained by repressive policing, cyberbullying and increasing barriers to free expression.
Economic inequalities will remain stark, exacerbated by extractive industries that benefit political and corporate elites while leaving communities marginalised. As resource mismanagement intensifies environmental degradation, access to clean water and health services will further decline.
Young people, increasingly excluded from formal political structures, will turn away from electoral politics in frustration. Some will migrate, while others will challenge the status quo through protest movements, only to be met with state repression. Meanwhile, technological advances will create new opportunities for civic engagement but also deepen inequalities, as digital access remains limited for the most marginalised.
This scenario underscores the urgent need for proactive governance that addresses socio-economic disparities and environmental challenges before they further undermine democratic participation.
Scenario 2: Disciplined Improvement – digitally driven democracy
In this more optimistic trajectory, Southern African democracy undergoes gradual yet significant digital transformation. Universal internet access and online voting expand participation, while artificial intelligence (AI) is ethically regulated to enhance electoral integrity. By the 2030s, younger leaders drive transparency and accountability, integrating digital tools to foster direct engagement between citizens and policymakers.
Economic growth, bolstered by tech-driven industries, helps narrow inequality gaps. Regional cooperation strengthens and governments harness renewable resources equitably, investing in infrastructure, healthcare and education.
While progress remains fragile—fragmented online discourse threatens to erode social cohesion—this scenario demonstrates how technological advancement when balanced with democratic values can create a more participatory and representative governance model.
Scenario 3: Collapse – democracy dismantled
A stark warning emerges from this scenario. A severe drought in the mid-2020s triggers humanitarian and governance crises, leading to a two-decade decline into authoritarianism. Elections lose legitimacy as ruling elites entrench power through fraud, state repression and digital surveillance.
Artificial intelligence, instead of fostering inclusion, becomes a tool for discrimination, locking marginalised communities out of economic and political opportunities. The once-cohesive Southern African Development Community (SADC) collapses amid rising nationalism and competition for dwindling resources.
Resource extraction intensifies, benefiting only political and corporate interests while local communities bear the costs. Environmental mismanagement fuels mass displacement, with climate refugees overwhelming unprepared states, igniting xenophobia and conflict. Crime surges and repressive military responses deepen public distrust.
This scenario serves as a cautionary tale: failure to address governance weaknesses, economic injustice and environmental degradation today could lead to a future where democracy becomes little more than a façade.
Scenario 4: Transformation – innovative resurgence
A more hopeful vision emerges in this scenario, where Southern Africa successfully navigates its democratic challenges through inclusive governance, sustainable economic policies and regional cooperation. Governments embrace community-led resource management, fostering economic equality and environmental resilience.
By 2043, the median age of political leaders has dropped to 44, reflecting the meaningful integration of youth voices in governance. Policy innovation, driven by a new generation of leaders, has created a political culture centred on transparency and equitable development.
Advancements in broadband and digital rights protections ensure broad-based political participation. A shift from dependency to strategic global partnerships strengthens economic self-sufficiency, with Southern Africa emerging as a leader in democratic governance, climate resilience and technological innovation.
This scenario underscores the transformative potential of inclusive leadership, robust digital governance and community-driven economic models.
Charting the path forward
While these scenarios are not predictions, they highlight the diverse pathways that democracy in Southern Africa could take over the next two decades. The choices made today—on youth participation, environmental governance, economic inclusion and digital policy—will shape which of these futures becomes reality.
To facilitate strategic thinking, the report leaves readers with critical questions: How can community-led resource governance enhance democratic accountability? What mechanisms will meaningfully integrate youth into decision-making? How should regional governance frameworks evolve to address AI, data privacy and digital inclusion?
Southern Africa’s democratic future is not predetermined
Southern Africa’s democratic future is not predetermined. It will be shaped by those who act now to anticipate challenges, seize opportunities and strengthen the region’s democratic foundations.
The full report can be accessed here.
Image: geralt/Pixabay
