19 Futures of the State in the Global South

Summary

This report begins with an introductory overview of its purpose and conceptual framework. It lays out a foresight-driven inquiry into how state governance in the Global South may evolve over the next two decades. Adopting a state-centric lens combined with a Global South perspective, it highlights how colonial legacies, hybrid political systems and emerging global trends shape diverse governance trajectories across regions.

The following section outlines the research design and methodology. It explains how the application of futures thinking and strategic foresight tools, such as scenario planning, horizon scanning and expert consultations. Quantitative analysis using the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) is complemented by regional workshops and the International Futures model, producing an integrated understanding of governance drivers and trajectories.

In the third part, the report reviews the historical and current governance context. It traces the evolution of state systems in the Global South, from post-independence reforms to current challenges such as institutional fragility, elite capture and democratic backsliding. The section highlights regional variations in governance performance, with some states improving regulatory quality and government effectiveness, while others face stagnation in voice and accountability.

The fourth section presents a systemic horizon scan across five domains: political/security, economic, social, technological and environmental. It identifies key trends including rising authoritarianism, digital control, demographic pressures, debt constraints, urbanisation, inequality and climate vulnerability. These factors are not isolated; they interact to reshape how authority is contested and governance is delivered.

The fifth section introduces four alternative scenarios for the future of governance: the Growth World, the Sustainable World, the Divided World, and the World at War. Each scenario explores different configurations of state roles, legitimacy and institutional capacity under varying global conditions. They highlight how states might evolve as dealmakers, system-builders, fractured authorities or survivalist regimes.

Finally, the report concludes with eight strategic reflections. These emphasise the need to rethink governance beyond the state, address the participation-performance gap, invest in anticipatory capacity and embed foresight into policy planning. A central message emerges: governance futures are not predetermined; they depend on how states, societies and international actors respond to accelerating complexity.