Niger

Chart 1 is a political map of Niger.

Niger, a landlocked country in Western Africa, is classified as low-income and shares borders with Algeria, Libya, Chad, Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso and Mali. Spanning approximately 1.27 million square kilometres, Niger is rich in natural resources, including uranium, coal, iron ore, tin and petroleum. These resources have historically contributed to government revenues, attracted foreign investment, and supported infrastructure projects. However, the equitable distribution of these benefits has been hindered by challenges in resource management and periods of political instability.

The capital city, Niamey, is situated in the southwestern region, which hosts the highest population density and serves as a hub for the majority of agricultural activities. In contrast, the northern regions are predominantly desert, while central areas provide grazing lands for the livestock of nomadic pastoralist communities.

The country is located in one of the world's hottest zones, with minimal annual rainfall, ranging from 100 mm in the northern Saharan region to 600 mm in the southern Sahelian zone. The rainy season, lasting one to four months, heavily influences agriculture and water availability throughout these zones. Ecologically, the country spans arid deserts, transitional savannas and a small fertile southern zone, home to diverse but threatened wildlife. Challenges like desertification (spanning southwards) and climate change (specifically affecting rainfall variability) exacerbate vulnerabilities, adding pressure to an already fragile socio-economic and political landscape.

Since gaining independence from French colonial rule in 1960, Niger has navigated periods of political instability interspersed with relative calm. The initial phase of one-party civilian governance lasted until a military coup in 1974, ushering in military rule that persisted until 1991. Niger became a democratic state following the Sovereign National Conference in 1992, which led to the adoption of a new constitution authorising a multi-party system. The first president was democratically elected in 1993. Subsequent years were marked by coups in 1996 and 1999, followed by the election of Mamadou Tandja, who served two terms until 2009. An attempt to amend the constitution for a third term led to another military intervention in 2010. Elections in 2011 brought Mahamadou Issoufou to power, who completed two terms before peacefully transferring authority to Mohamed Bazoum in 2021, marking Niger's first peaceful transition between democratically elected leaders, despite the opposition contesting the election.

However, this period of democratic rule was short-lived. On 26 July 2023, President Bazoum was deposed in a military coup led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani, who assumed leadership of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (Conseil National pour la Sauvegarde de la Patrie, or CNSP). The military-led government cited deteriorating security conditions and economic mismanagement as justifications for the coup.

In the aftermath of the July 2023 coup, Niger's political landscape underwent significant shifts. The military-led government severed longstanding security agreements with France, leading to the withdrawal of French troops by December 2023. The US also evacuated and closed its drone base in Agadez in August 2024 at the request of the military-led government. Following its strained relations with ECOWAS and regional tensions, Niger, alongside Burkina Faso and Mali, announced its withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the G5 Sahel. The three nations subsequently formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in late September 2023 to jointly address security challenges and strengthen regional defense cooperation. This military alliance later evolved into the broader Confederation of Sahel States (CSS), formalising their collaboration on political, economic and diplomatic efforts to assert sovereignty and foster independence in the Sahel region. Niger currently uses the West African Franc (CFA) and is part of the West Economic and Monetary Union, but the country has stated it’s intent to stop using the CFA.

Niger is also a member of the Niger Basin Authority, which enables member states to jointly manage the water resources of the Niger basin in a sustainable manner, the Lake Chad Basin Commission, which has the same aims for the Lake Chad Basin region and the Liptako–Gourma Authority, which aims to develop and secure the border regions between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

Despite these realignments, the security situation remains precarious. The withdrawal of Western military support has emboldened Islamist insurgent groups, leading to increased attacks. The military-led government's efforts to seek assistance from alternative partners, including China, Russia and Türkiye, have yet to yield significant improvements in security. Furthermore, internal dissent has emerged, with new non-state armed groups expressing support for the deposed President Bazoum. The most active are the Patriotic Liberation Front and the Patriotic Front for Justice, which carried out several attacks in 2024 against Niger's military and infrastructure.

While the military-led government implemented measures to address internal challenges, such as establishing a new anti-corruption commission aimed at recovering misappropriated public assets, concerns have been raised regarding the transparency and effectiveness of these initiatives. Overall, Niger’s political landscape remains fraught with challenges, and the path to stability and democratic governance is uncertain.

Niger’s social indicators also reflect persistent developmental challenges. The United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) for 2024 places Niger at 189th out of 191 countries, with a score of 0.394, significantly below the sub-Saharan Africa average of 0.549. Similarly, the Sustainable Development Report 2024 SDG index ranks Niger 160th out of 167 countries, highlighting substantial gaps in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Niger is at a critical juncture, grappling with political upheaval, security threats, economic disruptions and enduring developmental challenges. The recent coup and subsequent policy shifts have introduced new dynamics that will significantly influence the country's trajectory in the coming years as explored in the sections below.

Chart 2 presents the Current Path of the population structure, from 2020 to 2043.

Niger has one of the highest annual population growth rates globally, measured at 3.4% in 2023. Its exceptionally high fertility rate of 6.1 births per woman has driven rapid population growth, from 8.3 million in 1990 to 26.2 million in 2023, with our modelling forecasting 33.1 million by 2030 and 49 million by 2043. This growth poses significant challenges to sustainable development placing pressure on resources, infrastructure and social systems.

Adding to the complexity are strained social budgets due to competing demands arising from increased security spending linked to high regional instability. These budgetary pressures inevitably reduce allocations for long-term development sectors like health, education and social protection, further exacerbating the challenges of rapid population growth.

The high fertility rate, historically above 7 until 2017, is fueled by low contraceptive use and cultural norms favouring large families. In 2023, contraceptive use was just 12.7%, the 8th lowest globally. By 2030, this will rise to 18.9%, and by 2043, it will reach 29.9%, still one of the lowest rates worldwide. This low uptake will contribute to higher than global average fertility rates, which will stand at 5.4 births per woman by 2030 and 4.1 births by 2043.

A high fertility rate coupled with low levels of life expectancy means Niger had the world’s youngest population in 2023. Niger's median age was 16 years in 2023, with half of the population expected to be under 17 years by 2030. This youthful population, while contributing to a growing future labour force, also increases the dependency ratio, potentially limiting economic development. The median age of the population will reach 19.4 years by 2043.

Life expectancy in Niger will improve, from 64.8 years in 2023 to 69.2 years in 2030 and by 2043 would likely be 74 years, reflecting a strong positive trend. The elderly, those aged above 64 years, will remain a small part of the population, rising from 2.6% in 2023 to 3.4% by 2043. However, a potential demographic dividend will materialise only around 2060 when the ratio of the working-age population (15 to 64 years of age) to dependents (elderly and children) will get to 1.7 to 1. Until then, high dependency ratios will limit the contribution that labour can make to economic growth as well as to savings and investment.

Niger has a significant youth bulge, with 51.5% of the adult population aged between 15-29 years in 2023, the fourth largest globally. Despite a low youth unemployment rate of 0.4% in 2022, economic opportunities and political stability will be key to avoiding instability. The youth bulge will remain high throughout the forecast horizon amounting to 51.7% in 2030 and only dropping slightly to 47.9% by 2043. In the context of Niger, its large youth bulge, the limited economic opportunities afforded to young adults entering the job market, and the perceptions of the limited degree of political agency by young people contribute to instability.

The government should prioritize addressing these issues. It must focus on expanding access to education, creating jobs and facilitate employment opportunities, expand social grants and improve governance to harness the potential of its youthful population while minimising risks of social and economic instability through constant engagement.

Chart 3 presents a population distribution map of Niger for 2023.

Niger’s population of approximately 26 million is unevenly distributed, with most people living in clusters concentrated in the far south and west of the country. Due to its vast arid landscape—covering about 80% of the total land area—Niger has a low overall population density. An estimated 94% of the population resides on just 35% of the land, primarily in the more fertile southern regions along the border with Nigeria and around major river systems. The national average population density was 0.21 people per square kilometre in 2023 and will rise gradually to 0.26 by 2030 and 0.39 by 2043, reflecting slow urbanisation and the dominance of rural living.

Niamey, the capital and largest city, is situated in the southwest along the River Niger. It serves as the political, economic and cultural hub of the country, with an expanding urban footprint driven by population growth. Maradi, the second-largest city, and Zinder, the third-largest, are both located in the southern region near the Nigerian border, serving as important trade and agricultural centres.

Despite its geographical isolation and limited connectivity, the city of Agadez in the north plays a critical role in linking Niger to Algeria via the Trans-Saharan Road (TSR) corridor and between Niger and Libya via the Salvador pass, which are  key corridors for regional trade and migration.

The southern regions of Niger benefit from relatively better connectivity through major roadways, such as the Niamey-Cotonou Corridor and the Zinder-Kano Road. The Niamey-Cotonou Corridor, once a vital trade route linking the capital to Benin's port city of Cotonou, has been disrupted due to border closures following diplomatic tensions after Niger's 2023 coup and ECOWAS sanctions. Meanwhile, the Zinder-Kano Road continues to play a critical role in fostering economic ties with Nigeria, Niger’s largest trading partner. Despite these important routes, the country’s overall road infrastructure remains underdeveloped, with limited paved roads and poor maintenance, creating significant challenges for national connectivity and economic integration.

Niger’s land use management is heavily influenced by its arid environment, with significant variations across regions. The country is divided into eight administrative regions—Agadez, Diffa, Dosso, Maradi, Tahoua, Tillabéri and Zinder—and the capital district, Niamey. These regions are further subdivided into 63 departments, a substantial increase from the 36 departments that existed prior to the administrative reorganisation implemented in 2011. Enhancing transport networks and upgrading key trade corridors are essential for improving connectivity between population clusters, unlocking economic opportunities, and supporting equitable development across the diverse landscapes of Niger.

Effective land use management in the southern areas would also be vital to ensuring sustainable agricultural practices, protecting fertile lands, and accommodating population growth in a way that balances development needs with environmental preservation.

Chart 4 presents the urban and rural population in the Current Path, from 1990 to 2043.

Niger is a latecomer to the global trend of urbanisation, with the vast majority of its population still residing in rural areas. In 2023, 82.4% of the population lived in rural areas, the third-highest rate globally, behind Papua New Guinea and Burundi. By 2030, the rural population proportion will drop marginally to 81.2%, and by 2043, it will reach 78.5%, still ranking 6th globally. This slow transition signals a prolonged reliance on agriculture and rural livelihoods, which may hinder the country’s overall development if not accompanied by appropriate policy adjustments and infrastructure investments.

Urbanisation, when it occurs, can be a key driver of economic growth, as higher population densities in cities and towns foster entrepreneurship, increase productivity, and lead to higher rates of educational attainment and healthcare access. However, rural populations in Niger face persistent challenges due to limited access to critical services and infrastructure, including healthcare, education and reliable internet access, further deepening disparities.

More rapid rates of urbanisation could help address some of these disparities by offering better access to essential services and creating new economic opportunities - but only with prior planning and the pre-placement of infrastructure. It could present an opportunity for comprehensive urban planning reforms and climate adaptation strategies, particularly in the housing sector, which currently struggles with affordability and resilience to climate shocks. Nevertheless, this urban transition carries risks, such as the rapid and often uncontrolled expansion of informal settlements. These settlements frequently lack basic infrastructure, sanitation and essential services, posing challenges to public health and social stability. Moreover, while urbanisation can drive development within cities, it could exacerbate the rural-urban divide if not paired with strategic policies aimed at improving rural infrastructure, agricultural productivity and access to services.

Balancing rural development, especially addressing challenges like frequent droughts and erratic rainfall patterns within Niger’s agricultural sector, with urban growth priorities will be crucial to ensuring inclusive, sustainable progress across all regions of Niger. A comprehensive approach that fosters both urban and rural development is necessary to reduce inequalities and ensure long-term prosperity.

Chart 5 presents GDP in market exchange rates (MER) and growth rate in the Current Path, from 1990 to 2043.

The country is heavily dependent on the agriculture sector which is vulnerable to climate-related shocks, such as erratic rainfall patterns and droughts, due to a lack of irrigated agricultural land. Irrigation is however on the rise, and in 2023 production from irrigated land compensated for decreased rain-fed production of key cereals, highlighting the benefits of increased irrigation.

Economic output is hampered by ongoing domestic and regional insecurity, which affects regional integration, access to markets and strains public finances. The level of human capital development is also an obstacle to economic growth, while limited infrastructure and growing insecurity constrains educational access. Political upheaval in 2023 also disrupted the country’s economic productivity, when the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) imposed far-reaching sanctions on various sectors of the economy, which contributed to lower-than-projected growth in 2023. The lifting of sanctions that most significantly affected the population—such as border closures, trade restrictions, and the suspension of financial transactions—in February 2024 for humanitarian reasons, along with the partial restoration of financing, subsequently led to higher-than-anticipated growth in 2024.

Niger relies primarily on gold production, which constituted 72.7% of total exports in 2022, while other mineral products contributed an additional 8.6%. The export of oil was expected to increase significantly by the end of 2023, but sanctions imposed by neighbouring states (subsequently lifted) delayed the process, leading to a delay in oil exports through a newly built pipeline running through Benin. The pipeline finally opened in April 2024, and again in August, after a dispute with Benin was settled. The pipeline has a 110 000 barrel per day capacity, which is a fivefold increase on the country’s current production capabilities, with production expected to initially start at 90 000 barrels per day. The expected increase in oil revenue has boosted the projected average growth of the economy in 2025 and 2026 above 6%. Non-oil industries and the services sectors will however take longer to recover from the economic shock caused by the 2023 political upheaval.

Uranium, once a cornerstone of Niger's exports, has experienced a significant decline in production and export value over the past decade. In 2022, Niger produced approximately 2 020 tonnes of uranium, accounting for around 5% of global uranium production. Recent political tensions between Niger and France have further impacted the sector. In June 2024, Niger's military government revoked the operating license of French nuclear company Orano for the Imouraren mine, one of the world's largest uranium deposits. Orano, which has been active in Niger since 1971, has faced operational challenges, including the suspension of production at its Somaïr mine due to financial difficulties and export restrictions.

The size of Niger’s economy stood at US$15.1 billion in 2023 and will grow by 55% to reach US$23.4 billion in 2030. Growth in the short to medium term will be influenced by various factors, such as the decision to withdraw from ECOWAS and the subsequent rise in tariffs and lower trade volumes, continuing vulnerability to climate disasters which will affect agriculture output, and the persistent threat of national and regional insecurity. Furthermore, borrowing costs will likely be higher and domestic resource mobilisation is forecast to remain low. Nevertheless, Niger’s GDP will increase to US$51.3 billion by 2043, a robust improvement of 120% over its 2030 level. An average growth rate from 2024 to 2043 is expected at 6.3% which is above the average for low-income African countries, but insufficient to rapidly reduce poverty or grow incomes.

As oil exports start to flow, assuming relations with Benin are strengthened and maintained, care will have to be taken to reinvest the economic gains in the country’s human, social and knowledge capital to diversify the economy, to insulate Niger against the price volatility of international oil and commodity markets. Following the start of large-scale oil production and exports, the World Bank estimates that government oil revenues are expected to rise to 5% of GDP by 2030, from less than 1% of GDP in 2024. Part of this windfall can then be used to invest in social sectors in general and education in particular.

Chart 6 presents the size of the informal economy as per cent of GDP and per cent of total labour (non-agriculture), from 2020 to 2043. The data in our modelling are largely estimates and therefore may differ from other sources.

The informal economy comprises the part of any economy that is neither officially taxed nor monitored. Countries with high informality normally have a number of development challenges, such as low revenue mobilisation, and economic growth tends to be below potential. Informal economic activities are also less productive than those in the formal sector, providing workers with little to no social protection and formal contracts. The informal sector is typically also characterised by high levels of gender and income inequality.

Until ECOWAS lifted its sanctions at the start of 2024, the informal economy mitigated some of the negative side effects of trade restrictions on the food security situation in Niger. Informal traders were still able to access the markets of states imposing ECOWAS sanctions, which kept food available, albeit at higher prices. Whilst formalisation of the informal sector remains a priority, the sector provides a crucial lifeline for many people unable to enter the formal sector, a situation that will continue for many years in the future. 

Efforts to formalise the sector must therefore be taken with care to protect informal food supply lines and ease the transition from informal to formal. In fact, Niger would be well advised to grow the informal sector in the absence of low formal sector growth since the majority of Niger’s workforce is employed in the informal sector, equating to 63.2% in 2023. The economic size of the sector reached 32.1% of GDP in the same year.

In absolute terms, the sector will continue to grow over the forecast horizon, but as a share of total GDP its contribution will fall to 30.2% by 2030 and 26.5% by 2043. Similarly, informal labour force employment will reduce to 56.3% by 2030 and 44.7% by 2043 on the Current Path.

Chart 7 presents GDP per capita in the Current Path, from 1990 to 2043, compared with the average for the Africa income group.

Modest economic growth coupled with high fertility rates have led to  Niger’s GDP per capita being the fifth lowest globally at US$1 240 in 2023. At independence in 1960, the average income per person equated to US$1 740, but years of rapid population growth and slow economic growth meant GDP per capita fell to US$1 080 by 1990. Decades of political instability and multiple coups resulted in economic stagnation, with GDP per capita reaching a low point of US$910 in 2004, before slowly rising to its current level. Compared to the average of its low-income group peers in Africa, Niger fell below the group’s average in 1984, with the gap growing from US$190 in 1990 to US$570 by 2023.

In the Current Path, Niger’s GDP per capita will increase to US$1 509 by 2030 and US$2 133 by 2043, therefore only surpassing its 1960 level of US$1 740 in 2036. The country will continue to lag behind the average for its income group, with the gap remaining at US$570 by 2030 before growing to US$852 by 2043.

Chart 8 presents the rate and numbers of extremely poor people in the Current Path from 2020 to 2043.

In 2022, the World Bank updated the poverty lines to 2017 constant dollar values as follows:

• The previous US$1.90 extreme poverty line is now set at US$2.15, also for use with low-income countries.
• US$3.20 for lower-middle-income countries, now US$3.65 in 2017 values.
• US$5.50 for upper-middle-income countries, now US$6.85 in 2017 values.
• US$22.70 for high-income countries. The Bank has not yet announced the new poverty line in 2017 US$ prices for high-income countries.

Monetary poverty only tells part of the story, however. In addition, the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) measures acute multidimensional poverty by measuring each person’s overlapping deprivations across 10 indicators in three equally weighted dimensions: health, education and standard of living. The MPI complements the international US$2.15 a day poverty rate by identifying who is multidimensionally poor and also shows the composition of multidimensional poverty. The headcount or incidence of multidimensional poverty is often several percentage points higher than that of monetary poverty. This implies that individuals living above the monetary poverty line may still suffer deprivations in health, education and/or standard of living.

Government efforts to actively combat poverty in Niger started in earnest in 1997 when the Framework Program to Combat Poverty (PCLCP) was adopted. This framework was followed by the Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) in 2002, which served as the principal set of guidelines for all economic and social policies. The Strategy focussed on increasing access to basic social services, developing rural areas, fighting food insecurity and desertification and increasing incomes.

The PRS was followed by the Accelerated Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (ADPRS), which set out the country's poverty alleviation objectives from 2008 to 2012. The ADPRS rested on seven pillars, with the three most pertinent to poverty reduction being equitable access to quality social services, control of population growth, reduction of inequalities, and strengthening of social security.

The next development plan, titled the ‘Economic and Social Development Plan’ (PDES) for the period 2012-2015 focused on sustainable development, inclusive growth and good governance. Building on the foundation of the previous strategies, the PDES focused on greater sustainability, especially in agricultural development and diversifying the economy.

A subsequent PDES was adopted in 2017 and served as the first implementation plan for a newly developed National Growth strategy, termed the Niger 2035 Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Strategy (SDIGS). The 2017-2021 PDES focussed on five axes, namely, cultural renaissance, improved governance, social development and a demographic transition, greater economic growth and sustainable management of the environment. A new PDES was adopted in 2022 and runs until 2026, building on the priorities set out for the 2017-2021 period.

These efforts have resulted in steadily decreasing poverty rates since the mid-2000s. In 1981, 66.3% of the population lived below the US$2.15 poverty line, a rate which rose to 79.5% by 2007, due in large part to the political turbulence in the 1990s and early 2000s. However, poverty levels have steadily declined since, dropping to 47.4% by 2023. The vast majority of the extremely poor live in rural areas, while urban areas have relatively low levels, especially in the capital city of Niamey. Covid-19 reversed some of the gains made in reducing poverty, particularly in rural areas, and constrained access to health and education, which was already low.

The natural hazards facing the agriculture sector will continue to be a large risk factor for poverty reduction efforts in Niger, as the sector employs most of the country’s poor population. The poverty rate will however continue to steadily decline over the forecast horizon, reaching 38.5% in 2030 and 22.6% by 2043.

Chart 9 depicts the National Development Plan.

The overarching development strategy was adopted in 2017 and is titled the Niger 2035 Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Strategy (SDIGS). Two medium-term development plans have been formulated to implement the strategy, titled PDES 2017-2021 and  PDES 2022-2026. The SDIGS rests on six strategic axes:

1. Security of the territory
2. Development of a dynamic private sector
3. Demographic transition
4. Revitalization and Modernization of Rural Areas
5. Human capital development
6. Modernization of government institutions

To achieve these goals, the PDES 2022-2026 stipulates three axes of its own:

1. Human capital development, inclusion and solidarity
2. Strengthening Governance, Peace and Security
3. Transforming the structure of the economy

The PDES 2022-2026 aims to boost progress towards these three priorities by ensuring its population is well-fed, has access to clean water and sanitation services, and does not experience gender-based discrimination. The plan also focuses on greater internal security, better border management and better local governance. Lastly, to promote the structural transformation of the economy, the Plan commits to revitalising the private sector, the sustainable management of the environment and productive use of oil and mineral resources.

The PDES 2022-2026 plan importantly identifies a series of factors that will ensure it is implemented successfully:

1. Establishing and operationalising the needed institutional bodies
2. Allocating sufficient resources in a consistent manner
3. Appropriate tools for mobilising external financial resources
4. Building capacity for all stakeholders
5. Developing and implementing an effective communication strategy
6. Reliable and disaggregated data

Chart 29 presents GDP per capita in purchasing power parity (PPP) in the Current Path and each of the eight sectoral scenarios, plus the synergistic effect and the Combined scenario. The data is from 2020 with a forecast to 2043.

The Governance scenario has the largest impact on Niger’s GDP per capita, increasing average incomes by US$10 in 2030 and US$140 in 2043 compared to the Current Path. This shows the benefits of reducing corruption, increasing government effectiveness, boosting economic and democratic freedoms, introducing well-targeted social grant programs and promoting greater gender equality throughtout society. Furthermore, the strong performance of the Governance scenario highlights the need to increase security and stability within the country. 

High quality governance is crucial for the efficient use of public funds, particularly at a time when the state is expected to benefit from increasing oil revenues. Public investment which focuses on creating an enabling environment for international investment by improving infrastructure, increasing stability and expanding the pool of high-skilled human capital will be key to economic growth.

The second most impactful scenario is the AfCFTa scenario, which raises GDP per capita above the Current Path by US$10 in 2030 and US$120 in 2043. The scenario shows the benefits of fully implementing the provisions of the AfCFTA, as local firms gain greater access to market intelligence and advice and increase their productivity by using more advanced inputs and competing with more firms, which ultimately leads to higher exports of higher value goods. Crucially, the impact of the AfCFTA scenario shows the positive impact of reducing imports tariffs and reducing non-tariff barriers to trade, as freer trade leads to local businesses having more access to the capital and intermediate goods they need to improve output.

The Manufacturing scenario has the third-largest impact on GDP per capita for Niger and raises GDP per capita by US$10 in 2030 and US$120 in 2043 above the Current Path. The scenario shows the benefits of incentivising manufacturing in Niger by improving the business environment, increasing investment in the manufacturing sector and boosting government expenditure on research and development activities within the sector. Investing in manufacturing will hold multiple benefits, as the sector creates higher quality jobs in the formal sector, and serves as an important linkage between other sectors of the economy, with higher levels of productivity spilling over to agriculture and services.

Indeed, all the sectors represented by the individual scenarios in the above analysis have strong links to each other and improvements in one will necessarily have positive side effects in another. For instance, improved infrastructure and human capital development are important for a productive manufacturing sector and aids a country in diversifying its economy. Similarly, the provision of high quality, all-weather rural roads is vital for agriculture commercialisation, access to bigger urban markets and food self-sufficiency. Improved governance through the more efficient use of public funds and greater stability cuts across all the sectors. A coordinated policy push across sectors is thus the best option to achieve inclusive, sustained growth and represents an integrated development push in Niger.

Chart 30 presents poverty in the Current Path and for each scenario, from 2023 to 2043. The user can select the number of extremely poor people or the percentage of the population.

All the scenario interventions contribute to poverty reduction in Niger (Chart 30).

By 2043, the Education scenario contributes most significantly to reducing extreme poverty rates while the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario contributes least. The Education scenario's profound impact on reducing extreme poverty rates in Niger by 2043 is tied to its ability to tackle structural inequalities, particularly in education access and quality. While the immediate effects by 2030 are modest—reflecting the time inertia in changing education systems and the delay in associated outcomes—the long-term benefits are transformative. By 2043, extreme poverty rates drop to 18.4% in the Education scenario, compared to 22.6% in the Current Path, illustrating its sustained impact.

A key driver of this improvement is the focus on reducing gender inequality, especially in secondary education. Historically, Niger has faced significant gender disparities in education. Addressing these gaps yields multiple benefits: educated women are more likely to participate in the workforce, delay childbearing, and invest in their children's education and health. Furthermore, better education equips individuals with the skills needed to engage in higher-productivity sectors, diversifying Niger's economy.

The Governance scenario promises to have the second-biggest impact on poverty reduction in Niger by 2043, lowering extreme poverty to 19.7%, 2.9 percentage points below the Current Path. This highlights the critical role of effective governance in fostering sustainable development. Governance improvements enhance state capacity, accountability and service delivery, thereby getting at some of the root causes of poverty and inequality. Improved governance also strengthens institutions, enabling the enforcement of laws and the reduction of corruption, which often diverts resources away from poverty-alleviation programs.

Niger’s agricultural sector is central to its economy, employing the majority of the population and serving as the primary source of income and food security for rural communities. As such, improvements in agricultural productivity and resilience to climate extremes can play a pivotal role in poverty reduction. By 2043, the Agricultural scenario has the potential to lift an additional 1.2 million people out of extreme poverty, reducing the number of people living in extreme poverty to 9.9 million, compared to 11.1 million under the Current Path.

The sector’s significance lies in its direct impact on rural livelihoods, where poverty rates are highest. Enhancing productivity through improved access to modern farming techniques, better seeds, fertilisers and irrigation can increase crop yields and farmer incomes. Moreover, fostering resilience to climate extremes—such as droughts and floods—reduces vulnerability to shocks that can drive households back into poverty. Investments in the agricultural value chain, such as storage facilities, transport infrastructure and market access, can further enhance the sector's contribution to poverty alleviation. By reducing post-harvest losses and connecting farmers to larger markets, these measures ensure that agricultural growth translates into tangible benefits for rural communities.

While the impact of the Agricultural scenario is not as pronounced as the Education or Governance scenarios, its focus on the most vulnerable rural populations ensures a substantial contribution to poverty reduction, demonstrating the sector's vital role in Niger’s broader development agenda.

Chart 31 presents GDP in the Current Path and in the Combined scenario, from 2020 to 2043. The data is in US$ 2017 and at market exchange rates (MER).

The Combined scenario combines all eight sectoral scenarios: Governance, Demographics and Health, Education, Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging, Agriculture, Manufacturing, AfCFTA and Financial Flows.

The Combined scenario will lead to impressive economic growth in Niger, if fully implemented. In the scenario, the size of the economy will reach US$25.1 billion by 2030, US$1.7 billion above the Current Path, and by 2043, the country’s GDP will reach US$80.1 billion, US$28.8 billion higher than the Current Path. The strong growth over the forecast horizon in the scenario results in the economy being five times larger in 2043 compared to 2020, while in the Current Path, the economy will only be about three times bigger.

Chart 32 presents the value added by sector in the Current Path and in the Combined scenario, for 2023 and 2043. The data is in US$ 2017 and as a percentage of GDP.

Our modelling provides forecasts in six economic sectors namely agriculture, energy, materials (including mining), manufactures, services and ICTech.

The Combined scenario will accelerate the structural transformation of the Nigerien economy, with the importance of the agriculture sector decreasing as the services sector growing significantly, while the manufacturing and materials sector also increase in importance. In 2043, the agriculture sector will have increased to US$9.5 billion, US$1.7 billion larger than in the Current Path. As a percentage of GDP, the sector will see its importance decrease from 35.7% in 2023 to 28.8% by 2030 and 11.9% by 2043 in the Combined scenario.

The services sector will grow rapidly in the Combined scenario: by 2030, the sector will equate to US$11.3 billion and rise steeply to US$42.2 billion by 2043, US$16.6 billion more than in the Current Path. As a share of GDP, the sector will grow from 39.4% of GDP in 2023 to 45% in 2030 and 52.7% in 2043, as services become the main driver of economic growth in the country. The manufacturing and materials sectors will also grow, with the former reaching 13.7% by 2043 in the Combined scenario, while the materials sector, which includes construction and mining, will reach 13.9% by 2043. Although the shift away from the agricultural sector is positive, labour productivity in the manufacturing sector is higher than in the services sector, which is largely informal. Incentivising manufacturing remains a priority to ensure the growing labour force is employed in a productive sector which spurs long term growth.

Chart 33 presents the size of the informal sector in the Current Path and in the Combined scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

The majority of Niger’s labour force is excluded from the formal sector and finds employment in the informal sector. In 2023, informal sector employment equalled 63.2% of total labour, declining to 56.3% by 2030 and 44.7% by 2043 in the Current Path. The Combined scenario policy interventions mean the size of the informal labour force will shrink significantly, as more workers find formal jobs in a growing economy. In this scenario, informal employment will decline to 53.7% by 2030 and 25.1% by 2043. The size of the informal sector will also decline, from 32.1% of GDP in 2023, to 29.3% by 2030 and 20.9% by 2043. The scenario will lower the size of the informal economy below the average for low-income Africa, which will be 28.9% of GDP by 2030 and 27% by 2043.

Chart 34 compares life expectancy in the Current Path with the Combined scenario from 2020 to 2043.

The life expectancy in Niger has been rising steadily since 1990, when it stood at 47.5 years, to 64.8 years by 2023. In the Current Path, the country will see its life expectancy rise to 69.2 years by 2030 and 74 years by 2043. The Combined scenario improves this trajectory, as the average life expectancy climbs to 69.6 years by 2030 and 75.7 years by 2043. The country’s life expectancy was below that of low-income Africa, at 66.3 years, in 2023, but Niger will outperform the average for its income peers, whose life expectancy will rise to 68.5 years by 2030 and 71.8 years by 2043.

Chart 35 compares the Gini coefficient in the Current Path with the Combined scenario for 2023 and 2043.

Income inequality in Niger was below the average for low-income Africa, as the country’s Gini score stood at 0.37 in 2023 compared to the income group’s average of 0.4. The country will see its economy grow in an inclusive manner in the Combined scenario, as the Gini score drops to 0.35 by 2030 and 0.33 by 2043, compared to 0.37 and 0.36 in the Current Path. 

Chart 36 compares carbon emissions in the Current Path with the Combined scenario from 2020 to 2043. Note that the data is in million tons of carbon, not CO₂ equivalent.

In 2023, Niger emitted 1.4 million tons of carbon. Under the Current Path, emissions will rise to 3.8 million tons by 2043. While this represents an increase, Niger’s carbon emissions start from an exceptionally low base and will remain comparatively low throughout the forecast horizon, especially when measured against regional peers.

Economic growth under most scenarios, with the exception of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, results in increased carbon emissions. The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario demonstrates that targeted investments in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, can enable economic growth while reducing emissions. Niger’s location in the Sahel provides an advantageous environment for solar energy production due to its abundant solar radiation, making renewable energy a viable pathway for mitigating emissions.

Despite the potential for renewables to offset emissions, Niger’s low energy access rates and significant energy poverty gap suggest that emissions will still rise as the country develops. Even with these increases, the focus on renewable energy uptake could minimise the growth in emissions.

Under the Combined Scenario, which incorporates a rapid expansion of renewable energy alongside accelerated economic growth, Niger’s carbon emissions will reach 4 million tons by 2043. This is only marginally higher than the Current Path for the same year. The modest increase in emissions, despite substantial economic gains, underscores the effectiveness of integrating renewable energy into the country's development strategy, as emphasised in the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario.

Chart 37 compares energy demand and production in the Current Path with the Combined scenario from 2020 to 2043. Production is done in six types, namely oil, gas, coal, hydro, nuclear and other renewables. The data is converted into billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) to allow for comparisons. Note that energy production could be for domestic use or for export.

The Current Path highlights a persistent and widening gap between energy demand and production in Niger. In 2023, energy production was 18 million BOE, while demand was 20 million BOE, creating a production deficit of 2 million BOE. This gap illustrates Niger’s reliance on energy imports, particularly electricity, with 83.4% of its supply sourced from neighbouring countries such as Nigeria. By 2043, under the Current Path, energy demand will rise to 78 million BOE, while production increases to only 46 million BOE. This results in a 32 million BOE deficit, underscoring the strain on Niger’s energy infrastructure to meet domestic needs, especially in rural areas where electricity access remains critically low at just 12.1%.

The Combined Scenario, which includes interventions from the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, presents an ambitious path for Niger’s energy sector but highlights even greater challenges. By 2043, energy demand surges to 97 million BOE, reflecting the additional energy required to fuel economic growth and industrialization. Although energy production improves significantly to 64 million BOE—representing a 39% increase over the Current Path—this increase is outpaced by rising demand, widening the energy deficit to 33 million BOE. This reflects the critical need for more aggressive energy interventions to close the gap between supply and demand, particularly as economic activities expand.

Currently, oil and coal are the dominant energy sources in Niger. However, solar energy is poised to play a much larger role in Niger’s energy mix by 2043. The Combined Scenario projects a steady increase in solar energy production, eventually surpassing oil as the dominant source of energy by 2037. This transition is bolstered by ongoing investments, such as the Niger Solar Electricity Access Project (NESAP) depicted in Chart 22.

While the Combined Scenario demonstrates that targeted interventions can significantly boost domestic energy production and diversify the energy mix, the growth in demand will require even more aggressive measures to mitigate the widening deficit.

To address these challenges, Niger must prioritise expanding renewable energy capacity and de-risking energy projects, particularly solar, which is well-suited to the country’s climatic conditions and energy needs. Strengthening energy infrastructure, promoting off-grid solar solutions to bridge the rural-urban electricity access gap, and encouraging private sector participation in energy initiatives will be essential to fostering Niger’s growth prospects. These measures will not only enhance energy security but also support sustainable economic development and reduce dependence on imported energy.

Chart 38 summarises the policy recommendations for Niger.

The Current Path highlights both challenges and opportunities for Niger as it strives for inclusive and sustainable development. While the country faces significant hurdles, its untapped potential offers a path toward sustained growth and shared prosperity if leveraged effectively.

Niger’s youthful population, with a median age of just 16 in 2023 and projected to remain among the youngest globally, represents a demographic opportunity for economic transformation. Similarly, the country’s abundant natural resources—including uranium, gold and oil—coupled with its strategic location, provide a solid foundation for economic diversification and enhanced trade. However, these strengths are overshadowed by persistent challenges.

Despite its resources and potential, Niger remains one of the world’s poorest nations, with 47.4% of its population living in extreme poverty as of 2023. Political instability, characterised by repeated coups and extended periods of military rule, has weakened governance structures and disrupted developmental progress. Environmental challenges such as desertification, erratic rainfall and rising temperatures exacerbate vulnerabilities in the agricultural sector, which employs the majority of the population. Food insecurity remains a critical issue, affecting 13% of the population in 2024.

Niger’s rapid population growth, driven by a high fertility rate of 6.1 births per woman in 2023, adds further strain on resources, infrastructure and social services. While this growth presents the potential for a demographic dividend, inadequate economic opportunities, poor infrastructure and low education enrollment rates threaten to turn this opportunity into a liability.

To address these structural challenges and unlock its development potential, Niger must implement targeted and coordinated policy actions. By focusing on governance reform, economic diversification, human capital development and climate resilience, the country can set itself on a path toward inclusive growth and shared prosperity.

The priority policies outlined below (Chart 38) provide a roadmap for this transformation:

Enhance Governance and Institutional Capacity:

• Strengthen anti-corruption frameworks to address inefficiencies in resource management and ensure transparent use of revenues from uranium, gold and oil.
• Develop inclusive decision-making mechanisms to restore public trust eroded by Niger’s history of political instability, including five successful coups and fragile democratic transitions.
• Establish robust monitoring and evaluation systems to ensure policy effectiveness and adapt strategies to meet changing needs.
• Promote youth engagement and political inclusion to leverage Niger’s demographic advantage for governance improvements and innovation.

Diversify the Economy:

• Invest in manufacturing and agro-processing industries to reduce dependency on resource exports, which accounted for over 80% of Niger’s export earnings in 2023.
• Maximise opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) to enhance exports and integrate Niger into regional and Africa-wide value chains, and mitigate the potential negative side-effects of withdrawing from ECOWAS.
• Improve the business environment to attract private sector investment, with a focus on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and fostering innovation.
• Support private sector-led initiatives in renewable energy, agro-processing and digital services to drive economic growth.
• De-risk investments through public-private partnerships, streamlined regulatory frameworks and targeted incentives to encourage domestic and foreign investors.

Invest in Human Capital Development:

• Expand access to education, with a focus on increasing gross enrolment rates (82.8% at the primary level in 2023) and reducing gender disparities, especially at secondary and tertiary levels.
• Address the high rates of child marriage (66% for girls aged 15–19) and early pregnancies, which significantly hinder school completion rates, through continued community dialogue and engagement by religious and traditional leaders.
• Develop new vocational training programs aligned with market demands, and support existing ones through more raw materials and financial resources, to equip Niger’s youthful population—51.5% of adults aged 15–29 in 2023—for productive employment.
• Promote digital literacy and expand ICT access to prepare the population for participation in the global digital economy. Supporting international initiatives such as the Digital Transformation Center Niger, which focused on making girls and women digitally literate—but was stopped in July 2023—should be a priority.

Promote Demographic Transition:

• Expand contraceptive access through targeted education programmes on the benefits of family planning, especially for those not aware of available contraceptive methods, and increase access to community health workers to lower Niger’s fertility rate (6.1 births per woman) and facilitate a demographic dividend.
• Strengthen healthcare systems to improve maternal health (402.1 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2023) and child nutrition, reducing under-five malnutrition rates (32.2% in 2023). Providing supplementary food to children and cash transfers to households facing food insecurity has proven successful in the past and remains a potential solution for persistent child malnutrition.
• Establish robust social protection systems to support vulnerable groups and cushion against shocks from poverty and climate change.

Enhance Food Security and Agricultural Resilience:

• Promote climate-smart agricultural practices to counteract desertification, erratic rainfall and soil degradation, which jeopardise agricultural productivity. Continued support for and strengthening of Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR) is needed to capitalise on progress already made and increase the areas of regenerated farmland.
• Invest in cold storage and distribution infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses. This will mitigate food insecurity, which currently affects 13% of the population.
• Expand irrigation systems to improve crop yields and reduce dependency on rain-fed agriculture by ensuring the Large-Scale Irrigation Development Programme (PDGI), launched in 2024, is completed and expanded after the programme's end date in 2027.
• Support women in agriculture by improving their access to land, financial services and training in sustainable farming practices.

Expand Infrastructure Development:

• Prioritise the construction of all-weather access roads to improve rural connectivity and access to markets, addressing the poor state of rural roads, 20% of which were in very poor condition in 2023. Entering into partnerships with international development agencies aimed at improving rural connectivity, such as the agreement reached with the Millennium Challenge Corporation between 2018 and 2023, has proven successful in the past and should be pursued again.
• Expand rural electricity access (currently 12.1% in 2023) through off-grid renewable energy solutions and extensions of the current distribution grid to reduce reliance on imported electricity (83.4% in 2023).
• Invest in affordable housing and sustainable urban planning to manage the pressures of urbanisation in Niamey and reduce informal settlements.

Leverage Renewable Energy Potential:

• Scale up solar energy projects, such as the Niger Solar Electricity Access Project, to improve national electricity access (21.5% in 2023) and capitalise on Niger’s abundant solar radiation.
• Promote renewable energy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and enhance energy security, especially in rural areas.
• Encourage private investment in renewable energy projects through incentives, de-risking mechanisms and supportive regulatory frameworks.

Strengthen Security and Regional Cooperation (supported by ISS West Africa report):

• Adopt a balanced approach that combines kinetic operations (e.g., military-driven actions like counterinsurgency missions and physical interventions to neutralize immediate threats) with non-kinetic strategies, such as promoting defections, reintegration programs, and community-based conflict resolution.
• Draw lessons from successful initiatives in the Lake Chad Basin, where non-kinetic methods like incentivizing combatants to disengage from extremist groups have proven effective. This dual approach addresses both immediate threats and the root causes of instability, such as poverty, weak governance, and social grievances.
• Strengthen collaboration within the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) to enhance coordinated security and diplomatic efforts with Burkina Faso and Mali.
• At the same time, work toward basic military and security agreements with ECOWAS countries to rebuild trust and foster regional stability. This should be complemented by leveraging existing frameworks, such as the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC), for broader and more inclusive cooperation.

Support Equitable Rural Development:

• Implement sustainable land-use policies that balance agricultural productivity, environmental preservation, and community needs to combat desertification and soil degradation.
• Expand access to clean water (41.4% in 2023) and improved sanitation (17.5% in 2023) to reduce health risks, particularly in rural areas.
• Focus on climate-resilient infrastructure, including all-weather roads and community-based irrigation systems, to empower rural communities.

Foster Regional and International Cooperation:

• Reinforce partnerships with multilateral organisations such as the Niger Basin Authority and Lake Chad Basin Commission to sustainably manage critical water resources for agriculture and livelihoods.
• Engage strategically with non-traditional partners to balance geopolitical shifts while ensuring alignment with Niger’s long-term development priorities.

Advocate for increased international support in areas such as renewable energy, education and governance reform to address Niger’s pressing development challenges.