Gabon

Chart 1 is a political map of Gabon.

Gabon is an upper-middle-income country rich in natural resources that lies on the equator, along the west coast of Central Africa. The country covers an area of about 270 000 km² with an estimated population of 2.5 million people in 2023. Gabon is bordered by Equatorial Guinea and Cameroon to the north, the Republic of the Congo to the east and south, and the Gulf of Guinea to the west. The islands of Sao Tomé and Principe are situated off the coast.

Gabon has a tropical climate, with year-round high temperatures and humidity. Precipitation is abundant and spread almost throughout the year, typically ranging from 1 500 mm to 3500 mm per year. The country has a single wet season between October and May, with a mean monthly rainfall of 200‐250 mm. Gabon’s natural resource wealth includes timber, manganese, natural gas and crude oil. Forests cover 85% of the country’s landmass, making it the second-largest forest area in Africa. There are four ecoregions: the Atlantic Equatorial Coastal forest, Central African mangroves, the Gulf of Guinea central region and the northwestern Congolian lowland forest. Gabon's capital and largest city is Libreville located along the Atlantic coast in the northwest. The official language is French, and the currency in use is the Central African CFA franc.

The Kingdom of Orungu was formed in Gabon by the 18th century and became a powerful trading centre, mainly due to the slave trade. Since its independence from France in 1960, the sovereign state of Gabon has had four presidents. Elected in 1961, the first president, Léon Mba, was overthrown by a coup d'état in 1964 before being restored to power by France. In 1967, judged unfit to govern, he was replaced by Omar Bongo.

Despite the introduction of a multi-party system in the early 1990s, the organisation of elections and a new democratic constitution, Omar Bongo and his Parti Démocratique Gabonais (PDG) kept firm control over Gabon. At his death, the son, Ali Bongo, succeeded him as head of the country in 2009. In September 2023, after a contested election, the long reign of the Bongo family at the head of Gabon was interrupted by a coup d'état, setting up a transition government led by Brice Oligui Nguema, former head of the presidential guard.

Since the beginning of the transition, a national dialogue has been organised to rebuild the institutions, lay the foundations for a new constitution, and set the framework for the 2025 presidential and legislative elections. The latter are due to take place on 12 April 2025, earlier than initially planned. The draft constitution was adopted by a popular referendum in November 2024. The constitutional revisions address dynastic rule by setting presidential term limits and banning family members of a sitting president from running for office. However, despite these advances, criticism persists as to the true nature of this transition and its real capacity to break with the old system and lead to civilian rule in 2025. The president of the transition officially announced his intention not to run in the next elections, and this could pave the way for more open competition.

Although the coup d'état was enthusiastically welcomed locally, it was condemned by both the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and the African Union (AU) as a violation of the principles of both institutions. As a result, Gabon was suspended from both, before being reinstated by ECCAS in March 2024.

In December 2024, ECCAS announced that it would maintain Gabon’s suspension until constitutional order was restored. At the same time, the bloc sent a positive signal by referring to the “peaceful and inclusive” nature of the coup and by reversing its decision to move its headquarters to Malabo.

Abundant petroleum reserves and foreign direct investment in the oil sector turned Gabon into one of the most prosperous countries in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of GDP per capita.

Gabon’s oil industry started gaining attention even before independence. In 1931, several oil deposits were discovered in regions neighbouring the capital Libreville. In 1975, Gabon became a full member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The country withdrew its membership in 1995 but rejoined the organisation in 2016. In 2021, Gabon also rejoined the Extractives Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), from which it was not suspended despite the military coup. 

Gabon is Africa’s seventh-largest oil producer and a net oil exporter although it only plays a minor role in global oil markets. In 2023, Gabon´s share of OPEC members’ crude oil exports stood at 1.04%, the second lowest after Equatorial Guinea.

Crude oil production in Gabon averaged 233.10 barrels per day (bpd) from 1973 until 2024. According to OPEC data, in 2023 it stood at 223 bpd. Due to the natural depletion of mature oil fields, the transition government is developing its offshore, deep-water resources to achieve a target of doubling oil production to 500 000 bpd by 2025. Offshore resources account for more than 70% of Gabon’s about 2 billion barrels of proven reserves, and recent offshore oil discoveries are expected to fuel production growth in the country.

In addition to the oil industry, Gabon possesses abundant primary materials and has potential for agricultural growth, developing the fishing industry and tourism sector development. Other notable exports aside from crude petroleum include manganese ore, sawn wood, veneer sheets and refined petroleum.

Gabon is currently classified as an upper-middle-income country by the World Bank. However, as is the case with many of its oil-producing African peers, its resource wealth has not translated into inclusive growth and sustainable development for its population. Therefore, on many development indicators it is not aligned with the average of its income peer group. In the absence of economic diversification and exclusionary economic governance, many development challenges persist. About one-third of the population still lives in poverty, inequality is entrenched and the dependence on food imports is growing. The economy is vulnerable to external shocks, and economic growth does not lead to sustainable job creation. Unemployment is high, in particular among young people, a problem that is compounded by the high level of informality. Moreover, infrastructure gaps, poor governance and an unattractive business environment hold the country back.

The transition government, other than ensuring the return to democratic rule, needs to set the conditions to gradually reverse Gabon’s record of decades of poorly managed oil wealth, insufficient inclusion and stagnant incomes and do the groundwork to achieve fiscal sustainability.

Chart 2 presents the Current Path of the population structure, from 2020 to 2043.

The demographic profile of a country is key in shaping its long-term social, economic and political path. It is hence a useful predictor for a nation’s development prospects.

Gabon’s demographic profile is misaligned with its upper-middle-income status and closer to the group average of its African lower-middle-income peers. Average total fertility is significantly higher than the global or African average for upper-middle-income countries although, between 1990 and 2023, it has declined from 5.5 to 3.7 births per woman of child-bearing age. In 2023, Gabon's population growth rate stood at 2.3%, roughly the median value for Africa and second highest among Africa’s upper-middle-income economies. From a baseline of hardly a million people in 1990, the country’s population more than doubled to about 2.5 million people in 2023 and is set to grow to 3.7 million people by 2043. Gabon is expected to reach replacement level fertility of 2.1 births per woman of childbearing age only by around 2068.

Relatively high levels of fertility and life expectancy mean that Gabon’s population is young with a demographic structure that is maturing only slowly. In other words, the country's population pyramid is large at the bottom, medium to slim in the middle and very slim at the top. In 2023, half of the population was younger than 22.5 years. More than a third (36.4%) were younger than 15, and only 4% of the population was older than 65. On the Current Path, the share of the population that is under 15 years old will drop to 31.8%, with the older age cohorts constituting a larger share of the overall population. By then, the median age will increase to just over 25 years, 7.7 years below the group average of Africa’s upper-middle-income economies and almost 19 years below the average for the world’s upper-middle-income countries. 

A maturing age structure will benefit Gabon’s workforce. By 2043, its working-age population will account for about 62.3% of the overall population, up from 59.6% in 2023. The ratio of people of working age relative to the dependent population is improving slowly. Gabon is set to enter a potential demographic window of opportunity in 2043 with the ratio of working-age persons at 1.7 to one. The contribution of labour will improve economic growth if education and employment opportunities are provided.

In 2023, the average life expectancy in Gabon was 68.4 years with that for women significantly higher (71.7 years) than men (65.2 years). On the Current Path, the average life expectancy of Gabonese citizens will increase to 71.7 years over the next two decades, 2.5 years below the expected average of 74.2 years for Africa’s upper-middle-income economies in 2043 and more in line with prospects for Africa's low-income economies. The gender gap in Gabon´s life expectancy will grow, reaching 7.1 years compared to 6.4 years in 2023.

Chart 3 presents a population distribution map for 2023.

According to the World Population Review, of the approximately 2.5 million people living in Gabon in 2023, more than a quarter or 578 000 inhabitants, are concentrated in the country’s capital, Libreville, which lies in the northwestern province of Estuaire. The second-largest city is Port-Gentil, with close to 110 000 residents, followed by Franceville with about 43 000 residents, and Oyem and Moanda with about 30 000 residents each. At 8.4 persons per square kilometre, population density in Gabon is low.

The country is characterised by exceptional ethnic diversity. The largest group are the Fang people, representing more than one-fourth of the country’s population. Other groups include the Myene (including the Mpongwe and Orungu), the Sira (including the Punu), the Nzebi and the Mbete. Together, the latter three account for about one-third of the population. Less numerous peoples include the Benga and Seke, the Kota and Teke, and the Vili.

Due to its extractive economy as well as its relative political stability, Gabon has historically attracted migrants from neighbouring countries, both regular and irregular and mostly searching for economic opportunities. A recent survey carried out by the International Organisation of Migration reveals that the majority of migrants to Gabon originate from West or Central Africa, mainly Mali, Cameroon and Benin. For some, Gabon serves as a transit point on their journey to Europe.

Chart 4 presents the urban and rural population in the Current Path, from 1990 to 2043.

Mainly because of its oil-based economy, concentrated in urban areas, Gabon is the most urbanised country in Africa. In 2024, more than 90% of the country’s population lived in towns and cities. The average African upper-middle-income country has a ratio of 68.4% urban versus 31.6% rural citizens. Also, smaller countries are typically more urbanised than larger countries as there is less land to cultivate. Gabon’s rural exodus has been fueled by the development of the oil economy to the detriment of agriculture and the quest for people to look for employment opportunities in urban areas. The rural sector is severely underdeveloped, and despite the availability of land and ideal climatic conditions, small-scale agriculture is mostly subsistence family farming.

Urbanisation has not translated into tangible improvements in the standard of living of most Gabonese, in particular the poor. Two key reasons for this outcome are that the urban economy has not created sufficient jobs and that growth largely occurred in sectors with little connection to the poor, such as oil production. Indeed, growth that does not benefit the poor tends to exacerbate existing inequalities.^{[1Wold Atlas, Ecological regions of Gabon.]} For sustainable urban development to happen, the growing urban workforce needs productive employment opportunities. Low-wage jobs limit the tax base putting pressure on service delivery in urban areas. In Gabon, this is the case for the education sector, for example. Gabon is an example of what Freire et al. summarise, i.e. that ‘[i]f urbanisation occurs without a corresponding increase in economic opportunities and services, the resulting cities will be characterised by concentrations of relatively richer people purchasing low-level services from those migrating to cities, [with] slums and concentrations of basic infrastructure services catering to the higher income parts of the city’.

According to the World Bank, in Gabon poverty is highly concentrated in the country’s largest cities, in particular Libreville and Port Gentil. However, the poverty rate in rural areas is even more widespread and deeper, meaning that those households are far away from the poverty line and hence need more resources to be lifted out of poverty.

Chart 5 presents GDP in market exchange rates (MER) and growth rate in the Current Path, from 1990 to 2043.

Gabon’s GDP (MER) essentially doubled between 1990 and 2023, from US$8.3 billion to US$16.4 billion. The country ranks fifth out of the eight African upper-middle-income economies, with South Africa being the largest economy, followed by Algeria and Libya and Botswana at fourth spot. On the Current Path, Gabon’s GDP will expand by almost 70% to US$28.5 billion by 2043.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Gabon's post-Covid economic recovery proved relatively resilient. Growth returned in 2021 after the recession induced by the pandemic and its broader fallouts and despite more recent shocks tied to the coup, logistical disruptions and high fuel prices for businesses. In 2021, the Gabonese economy grew by 1.5%, and 2022 and 2023 saw GDP expanding by 2.9% and 2.3%, respectively. The IMF growth forecast for 2025 is 3%. However, this optimistic outlook is contingent on progress in diversifying the economy as well as on consolidating Gabon’s precarious fiscal position to ensure fiscal sustainability in the future.

Key challenges that the transition government needs to address include:

1. Ensuring transparency in managing public resources and improving the business climate,
2. Consolidating the fiscal position with a view to ensuring fiscal sustainability,
3. Incentivising economic growth, while making it more inclusive,
4. Addressing fiscal imbalances to reduce liquidity risks and avoid unsustainable debt dynamics,
5. Closing transparency and governance gaps.

The transition authorities are facing a balancing act. Social expectations for the regime change to set Gabon on a more positive development trajectory are high and underpinned by long-standing economic and social grievances. At the same time, the fiscal space is very limited and debt pressure is high. For example, fuel subsidies were expanded despite the significant fiscal cost. Given high fiscal and liquidity risks, the rating agency Moody’s and Fitch downgraded Gabon’s ratings, and the IMF’s May 2024 debt sustainability analysis underlined a high risk of debt distress, noting a significant deterioration in debt sustainability since the previous assessment in 2022. The gradual depletion of oil reserves is adding to the pressure.

Gabon faces US$27 million in arrears to the World Bank, which suspended disbursements in January 2025. The country also has US$700 million in Eurobonds maturing in June 2025 and US$1.8 billion due in 2031.

Chart 6 presents the size of the informal economy as per cent of GDP and per cent of total labour (non-agriculture), from 2020 to 2043. The data in our modelling are largely estimates and therefore may differ from other sources.

Countries with high informality typically encounter multiple development challenges connected to low revenue mobilisation. Further, high levels of informality tend to hold back economic growth.

In 2023, Gabon´s informal economy accounted for approximately 33.6% of GDP, by far the highest share among its upper-middle-income peer economies in Africa. In Botswana, which ranks second, the informal sector accounts for only 18.6% of GDP, and the group’s average is 14.9%. The share of Gabon´s informal sector is even higher than in the average African low-income economy where in 2023 the informal sector accounts for 29.3% of GDP.

On the Current Path, Gabon’s informal economy will decline relative to the formal economy, likely reflecting higher incomes as well as some improvements in overall state capacity, including for taxation. However, without targeted policy intervention progress will be very limited. In 2043, the informal sector will still account for 29.3% of the country's GDP. With limited formal sector opportunities, most of Gabon’s workforce is employed in the informal sector which adds little value to the economy overall other than often being precarious employment. In 2023, informal labour accounted for more than half of total labour (51.1%). In the Current Path, this share will drop to 47.8% by 2043.

For oil-exporting economies, such as Gabon, persistently high levels of informality are not uncommon. The latter stem from economic structures that benefit exports of natural resources with limited diversification, hence constraining the tax base.

This explains that expected improvements are modest at best and misaligned with the country's upper-middle-income peer economies in which the informal sector will on average account for only 13.9% of GDP by 2043. Even in Africa´s low-income economies the informal economy will on average account for only 27% of GDP by 2043.

Addressing informality constructively is essential to promote inclusive wealth creation in Gabon and reduce inequalities. The sector is the only source of income for most people of working age. Improving access to quality education, job creation and financial inclusion are some policies that can reduce informality.

Chart 7 presents GDP per capita in the Current Path, from 1990 to 2043, compared with the average for the Africa income group.

In 2023, Gabon had a GDP per capita of US$13 460, US$1 000 above the African upper-middle-income group average of US$12 520. The country ranked 4th among its income peers on the continent. However, GDP per capita growth in Gabon has been extremely limited. In fact, in 2023 average incomes are lower than in 1990 when GDP per capita stood at US$18 000 or in 2000 when it was US$16 000. On the Current Path, Gabon’s per capita income will continue to stagnate and only increase by about 7% to US$14 370 in 2043.

Gabon’s GDP per capita evolution essentially mirrors fluctuations in global oil prices and domestic production dynamics in a context of relatively high population growth. Gabon's GDP per capita (PPP) peaked spectacularly following intense oil exploration and production activity during the 1960s and 1970s. In 1976, GDP per capita reached USD$31 090, but soon after dropped to levels between US$20 000 and US$18 000 during the eighties and nineties. The 2000s were characterised by even lower levels of GDP per capita, and in 2023, Gabon’s GDP per capita fell to US$13 460. Among its African upper-middle income peers, Gabon has the 4th-highest GDP per capita, following Mauritius (highest), Libya and Botswana. The group´s average in 2023 was US$12 520. On the Current Path, Gabon's GDP per capita will reach US$14 370 by 2043.

On the Human Development Report 2023/2024, Gabon scored 0.693 based on data from 2022 (higher scores mean higher human development). The country ranked 123 out of 191 countries and was among the top scorers of the medium human development category. However, it is worth noting that Gabon fell six ranks on the index between 2015 and 2022. 

Chart 8 presents the rate and numbers of extremely poor people in the Current Path from 2020 to 2043.

In 2022, the World Bank updated the poverty lines to 2017 constant dollar values as follows:

• The previous US$1.90 extreme poverty line is now set at US$2.15, also for use with low-income countries.
• US$3.20 for lower-middle-income countries, now US$3.65 in 2017 values.
• US$5.50 for upper-middle-income countries, now US$6.85 in 2017 values.
• US$22.70 for high-income countries. The Bank has not yet announced the new poverty line in 2017 US$ prices for high-income countries.

As an upper-middle-income country, Gabon uses the US$6.85 benchmark to define poverty. The country’s poverty burden is high considering its GDP per capita. In the past, economic growth has not led to improved development outcomes for the overall population. In 2023, 31.3% of Gabonese were living below the poverty line, the equivalent of 778 810 people.

However, Gabon’s poverty rate lies 26.9 percentage points below the 58.3% average of its very heterogeneous African upper-middle-income peer group. South Africa, Botswana and Namibia are the countries with the highest poverty rates in that group. All three also are characterised by extremely high inequality that extends beyond income inequality. In South Africa, 62.9% of the population lived below the poverty line in 2023. Mauritius was the country with the smallest share of people living in poverty, i.e. 12.2%, and Gabon´s poverty rate was ranked third lowest in 2023. On the Current Path, Gabon’s poverty rate will decline to 11.8% by 2043.

Monetary poverty only tells part of the story, however. Therefore, the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) assesses acute multidimensional poverty by measuring each person’s overlapping deprivations across 10 indicators in three equally weighted dimensions: health, education and standard of living. The MPI complements the respective international monetary poverty thresholds by identifying who is multidimensionally poor and also shows the composition of multidimensional poverty. The headcount or incidence of multidimensional poverty is often several percentage points higher than that of monetary poverty. This implies that individuals living above the monetary poverty line may still suffer deprivations in health, education and/or standard of living. Gabon scores 0.037 on the Multidimensional Poverty Index 2024 with 8% of the population considered multidimensionally poor and with sanitation and nutrition being the most critical dimensions. For comparison, Botswana’s and Namibia’s scores are 0.073 and 0.175, respectively (higher is worse). The average score for sub-Saharan Africa is 0.254.

Chart 9 depicts the National Development Plan of Gabon.

Gabon has produced a series of development plans. Under the second Ali Bongo administration, the plan ‘Emerging Gabon 2025’ (PSGE) served as the central guiding document with implementation starting in 2012. The plan had three overarching goals: (i) acceleration of economic growth and economic diversification, (ii) reduction of poverty and social inequalities and (iii) sustainable management of the country's resources.

To achieve this, the plan identified three strategic paths:

1. Strengthening the foundations to become a globally competitive country via investments in human capital, sustainable natural resource management, governance and infrastructure.
2. Establishing three pillars that can accelerate sustainable development, namely Industrial Gabon, Green Gabon and Service Gabon.
3. Facilitating inclusive growth and shared prosperity for all segments of the population through investments in health services, water and sanitation, housing and employment.

In July 2023, the Ali Bongo administration launched a Health Development Plan (Plan National du Développement National du Gabon) to accelerate progress towards universal health coverage.

In the aftermath of the coup, in January 2024, the transition government released its own development plan that is, however, aligned with the priorities spelled out in the previous document. The Plan National de développement pour la Transition (PNDT) or National Development Plan for the Transition is a strategic document that sets out development priorities for the period 2024 to 2026. The plan reflects the vision of the Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions (CRTI) and aims to promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth to improve the living conditions of the Gabonese people. To achieve this, the plan advocates the diversification of the Gabonese economy, by developing neglected sectors such as agriculture, tourism, industry and services.

The four strategic pillars of the PNDT are:

1. The development of strategic infrastructure,
2. Economic diversification,
3. The promotion of a new social pact for inclusive development,
4. The strengthening of environmental sustainability.

In addition, the plan envisions institutional reforms to ease the political transition. Priority projects to be financed include: the construction of new infrastructure, such as Libreville 2, adapted social housing, the creation of a Development Bank, as well as initiatives to strengthen sectors, such as aviation and road transport.

Chart 29 presents GDP per capita in purchasing power parity (PPP) in the Current Path and each of the eight sectoral scenarios, plus the synergistic effect and the Combined scenario. The data is from 2020 with a forecast to 2043.

In 2023, Gabon had a GDP per capita (PPP) of US$13 460 which will increase by US$910 to US$14 370 in 2043. In the Combined scenario, GDP per capita rises much faster reaching US$ 18 820 in 2043, US$4 450 more than in the Current Path. In other words, in the Current Path, GDP per capita is set to increase by 6.8% over the forecast horizon versus 39.8% in the Combined scenario.

The impact on Gabon’s GDP per capita in the different scenarios ranges from adding between US$750 and US$80 over the forecast period. The Manufacturing scenario increases GDP per capita the most and the Agriculture scenario the least. In the Manufacturing scenario, GDP per capita will reach US$15 110 by 2043. The second- and third-largest increase is brought about by the Governance and the AfCFTA scenarios with GDP per capita forecast to reach US$15 100 and US$15 080 by 2043, respectively. The remaining five scenarios Financial Flows, Demographics and Health, Education, Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging, and Agriculture take Gabon’s GDP per capita to above US$14 450 but below the US$15 000 threshold. On the upper end, the Financial Flows scenario lifts GDP per capita to US$ 14 840, and the Agriculture scenario takes it to US$14 450, US$80 above the Current Path in 2043.

The impact of the Manufacturing scenario illustrates the benefits of incentivising manufacturing in Gabon by improving the business environment, increasing investment in the sector and boosting government expenditure on research and development activities. Boosting  manufacturing will pay off, as the sector creates higher quality jobs in the formal sector and serves as an important linkage between other sectors of the economy, with higher levels of productivity spilling over to agriculture and services.

Indeed, all the sectors represented by the individual scenarios have strong linkages among each other, and improvements in one will typically have positive side effects in another. Improved infrastructure and human capital development, for example, are key for a productive manufacturing sector and are necessary conditions for a country to successfully diversify its economy. Better governance through the more efficient use of public funds and greater stability cuts across all the sectors. A coordinated policy push across sectors is thus optimal for achieving inclusive, sustained growth and development in Gabon.

Chart 30 presents poverty in the Current Path and for each scenario, from 2020 to 2043. The user can select the number of extremely poor people or the percentage of the population.

In 2023, close to one third of Gabon's population lived below the poverty line (31.3%). On the Current Path, this rate will drop to 17.3% in 2030 and to 11.8% by 2043. The Combined scenario accelerates this progress. By 2043, the share of Gabon's population living in poverty will drop to 15.7% in 2030 and to 5% by 2043.

Among the sectoral scenarios, the Governance scenario is the most powerful in reducing poverty in Gabon over the forecast horizon. Under this scenario, the share of people living in poverty drops to 16.4% by 2030 and to 9.3% by 2043.

This shows the benefits of improving the government’s capacity by reducing corruption, increasing government effectiveness, boosting economic and democratic freedoms, introducing targeted social grant programs and promoting greater gender equality throughout society. Over the past decade, the government of Gabon tried out a variety of policy tools to lift the poorest Gabonese out of poverty, such as providing universal access to primary education, compulsory health insurance schemes through the National Health Insurance Program, and the creation of a fund to support income-generating activities for the poorest citizens. More recent smaller initiatives included cash and in-kind transfers, cash-for-work and fee exemptions. Albeit only partly successful, those policies and initiatives provide a foundation for future measures. The significant impact of the Governance scenario also underlines the need to work towards political stability in Gabon.

Moreover, good governance is key for the efficient use of public funds, particularly at a time when fiscal pressure is high and social expectations are high. Public investment which focuses on creating an enabling environment for international investment by improving infrastructure, increasing stability and expanding the pool of high-skilled human capital will be critical for economic growth.

The second-best impact on poverty reduction happens in the Education and Manufacturing scenarios, in which the share of the population living in poverty will drop to 10.2% and 10.4% by 2043. The impact on poverty reduction of the AfCFTA scenario is somewhat weaker with about 11% of the population living in poverty by 2043. In the Demographics and Health scenario, Gabon’s poverty rate will drop to 11.3%, similar to the Financial Flows scenario in which 11.3% of the population will live below the poverty line by 2043. The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario and the Agriculture scenarios, in contrast, are less impactful yet significant when looking at poverty reduction. In fact, in those scenarios the poverty rate decreases to 11.4% and 11.6%, respectively, compared to 11.8% in the Current Path.

Chart 31 presents GDP in the Current Path and in the Combined scenario, from 2020 to 2043. The data is in US$ 2017 and at market exchange rates (MER).

The Combined scenario combines all eight sectoral scenarios: Governance, Demographics and Health, Education, Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging, Agriculture, Manufacturing, AfCFTA and Financial Flows.

The Combined scenario, if fully implemented, will lead to significant economic growth in Gabon. In this scenario, the economy will expand from US$16.4 billion in 2023 to US$26.8 billion in 2030 and to US$40.3 billion in 2043, US$12.4 billion more than on the Current Path. In other words, in the Combined scenario, Gabon's economy would be more than 40% larger than in the Current Path. In the latter, GDP will expand by 74% while in the Combined scenario, the economy will grow by 149%. 

Chart 32 presents the value added by sector in the Current Path and in the Combined scenario, from 2020 to 2043. The data is in US$ 2017 and as a percentage of GDP.

Our modelling provides forecasts in six economic sectors namely agriculture, energy, materials (including mining), manufactures, services and ICTech.

In 2023, value added from Gabon’s service sector accounted for 37.4% of GDP, the equivalent of US$6.1 billion, followed by the energy sector which represented 35.3% of GDP (US$5.8 billion). Value added from manufacturing accounted for about 15.1% (US$2.5 billion), followed by agriculture contributing US$1.1 billion, i.e. accounting for 6.7% of GDP. In the future, the services sector will be the most important contributor to Gabon’s GDP, forecast to account for 46.3% of GDP by 2043 at a value of US$13.4 billion, followed by the energy sector that will account for 22.5% of GDP (US$6.4 billion). The manufacturing sector will account for 18% of GDP, the equivalent of US$5.1 billion) and the relative contribution of agriculture will decline to a 4.8% share of GDP (US$1.4 billion).

The Gabonese economy is dominated by the services and the energy sector. In 2023, the value added by the services sector accounts for 37.4% of GDP, followed by the energy sector which represents 34.1% of GDP. The value added from the manufacturing sector amounts to 15.1%, and agriculture accounts for 6.7% of GDP, followed by ICT and materials with a share of 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively. 

On the Current Path, the composition of Gabon’s economy is not expected to change significantly although diversification is noticeable to some extent. In 2043, the services sector will be even more dominant and account for 46.3% of GDP. The share of the energy sector drops to 22.5% and the added value of manufacturing increases to 18% of GDP. However, value added from agriculture will decline in the Current Path accounting for only 4.8% in 2043. Materials and ICTech will rise to 3.9% and 4.6% of GDP, respectively.

The Combined scenario accelerates diversification of Gabon’s economy with the share of energy dropping to 15% and the share of manufacturing increasing to 24.3% in 2043. Value added from the service sector will still contribute the most to GDP at 46.7% in 2043 and the sector even gains relative importance. Agriculture, on the other hand, will drop to 4.2% of GDP in the Combined scenario while ICTech and materials will account for 5.3% and 4.5% in 2043, respectively.

Chart 33 presents the size of the informal sector as percentage of the total economy in the Current Path and in the Combined scenario, from 2020 to 2043.

In 2023, the informal sector accounted for one third of Gabon's economy (33.6%). On the Current Path, the informal sector will become relatively smaller by representing 29.4% of GDP in 2043. The Combined scenario will accelerate this trend towards greater formalisation of the economy. In this scenario, the informal sector will only account for 23.8% of the country's GDP in 2043. The size of Gabon´s informal sector relative to its GDP will still be much higher than the average for Africa´s upper-middle-income economies (13.3%), not to mention Gabon´s global income peers at 4.2%. Gabon will also still perform below the average of the world´s lower-middle-income economies (15.9%) and essentially only be ahead of Africa´s low- and lower-middle-income countries in which the informal sector is on average expected to account for 27.3% of GDP.

The scenario that has the greatest impact on reducing the informal economy as a share of GDP over the forecast horizon is the Governance scenario (27.1% in 2043) due to the improvements in government capacity, closely followed by the Manufacturing scenario (27.4% in 2043) due to its potential for job creation.

In 2023, informal labour accounted for more than half of Gabon’s labour force (51.2%). On the Current Path, this share will reduce only slowly to 49.2% in 2035 and to 47.8% in 2043. In the Manufacturing scenario, informal labour as a share of total labour will drop to 41% by 2043 compared to 46.2% in the Governance scenario. In the Combined scenario, 37.5% of Gabon’s labour force will work in the informal sector; significantly above the group average of 23.9% for Africa’s upper-middle-income economies and almost twice as high as the group average of 21% for its global income peers.

Chart 34 compares life expectancy in the Current Path with the Combined scenario from 2020 to 2043.

In 2023, the average person in Gabon had a life expectancy of 68.4 years. On the Current Path, life expectancy will increase to 71.7 years by 2043. The interventions in the Combined scenario accelerate improvements in life expectancy in Gabon so that Gabonese citizens can expect to live until 74.5 years; in other words add close to 3 years to their life expectancy.

Chart 35 compares the Gini coefficient in the Current Path with the Combined scenario for 2023 and 2043.

Gabon´s domestic Gini coefficient stood at 0.38 in 2023 which places the country just below the continental average (0.396) and inline with the average of its global upper-middle-income peers but significantly below the average of its African income peers. The most unequal countries in that grouping are South Africa, Namibia and Botswana, followed by Guinea Equatorial with Gini coefficients ranging between 0.63 and 0.5 (in order of mention).

On the Current Path, income inequality in Gabon will remain on more or less the same level throughout the forecast horizon of this study although a slight drop begins to show from about 2040. In the Combined scenario, however, income inequality is reduced significantly with a Gini coefficient that starts falling from 2035 to reach 0.36 in 2043. Only when extending the forecast horizon by another decade, the true combined power of the interventions take effect. Inequality in Gabon is very entrenched, and some of its structural drivers need time to be reversed to achieve more inclusive economic growth.

Chart 36 compares carbon emissions in the Current Path with the Combined scenario from 2020 to 2043. Note that the data is in million tons of carbon, not CO₂ equivalent.

Carbon emissions in 2023 stood at 1.6 million tons of carbon. On the Current Path, they will more than double to 3.5 million tons of carbon. In the Combined scenario, however, carbon emissions will grow more quickly and increase by close to 160% to reach 4.1 million tons of carbon in 2043.

The most carbon-intensive scenario is the Manufacturing scenario with an expected emission level of 3.7 million tons of carbon in 2043, followed by the Governance and the AfCFTA scenarios with similar emission levels. The least carbon-intensive scenarios are the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging and the Demographics and Health scenarios.

Chart 37 compares energy demand and production in the Current Path with the Combined scenario from 2020 to 2043. Production is done in eight types, namely oil, gas, coal, hydro, nuclear, geothermal, wind, solar and other renewables. The data is converted into billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) to allow for comparisons. Note that energy production could be for domestic use or for export with exports dominating in the case of Gabon.

Total energy produced in Gabon in 2023 stood at 77.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) compared with a total energy demand of 13.7 billion BOE, thus resulting in a production surplus of 63.8 million BOE. On the Current Path, total energy demand will increase to 28.3 million BOE and production will rise to 93.1 billion BOE, leading to a somewhat smaller surplus of 64.8 million BOE in 2043.

In the Combined scenario, total energy production will stand at 87.9 billion BOE. Demand will increase to 33.5 billion BOE, the production surplus will be 54.4 million BOE.

Currently, oil is Gabon’s dominant source of energy production by a great margin. In 2023, energy production from oil amounted to 73.7 million BOE, followed at great distance by energy production from gas at 2.7 million BOE. Energy production from hydro was 0.9 million BOE. Production from other sources is negligible.

On the Current Path, by 2043, oil will increase to 86.9 million BOE, and gas production will rise to 3.9 million BOE. Production from hydro stood at 0.94 million BOE. In the Combined scenario, however, oil production drops to 79.1 million BOE reflecting a change in Gabon’s energy mix while gas production will increase to 4.6 million BOE. In other words, oil production is set to drop by 9.9%, and gas production will increase by over 18.8%.

In Africa, Gabon has among the highest potential for hydropower which, however, remains largely untapped. The previous government intended to transition into sustainable energy sources and create a single national integrated grid using hydropower. The Kinguélé Aval Hydroelectric Power Station is a 35 megawatts (47 000 hp) hydroelectric power station, under construction across the Mbei River, a tributary of the Komo River, in Gabon. The power station is the first grid-ready, privately-owned hydroelectric power station in the country. In the Combined scenario, energy production from hydro will increase to 2.5 million BOE by 2043, representing a 75.2% increase relative to the Current Path production level. Production from solar follows a steep growth curve in the Combined Scenario increasing from a base of zero to 1.2 million BOE.

Chart 38 summarises the policy recommendations for Gabon.

This report outlines Gabon’s current governance and development challenges and presents opportunities how the country can do justice to its upper-middle-income status by fostering inclusive growth and sustainable development.

The Current Path analysis reveals that Gabon is standing at a critical juncture to turn the tide on decades of poorly managed oil wealth, weak inclusion, falling incomes as well as stagnant human and social capital development. The return to constitutional rule via democratic elections announced for April 12, 2025 will set the foundation for a new government to engage in evidence-based planning and policy-making across sectors that can set Gabon on a path to shared prosperity.

Expected improvements on the Current Path are below Gabon’s potential. Economic growth prospects are promising and by overcoming its structural constraints, the country can transition to a more diversified economy, inclusive growth and sustainable development. Focusing on improving governance, economic diversification and human capital development are key.

The priorities outlined as follows require targeted and coordinated actions.

Manage the democratic transition and ensure political stability

• Return to constitutional order within the announced timeframe to avoid compounding financing risks and to lay the foundations for attracting foreign direct investment by (re)building investor confidence
• Strengthen democratic institutions by establishing independent electoral bodies to enhance the credibility of the elections and mitigate the risk of post-election unrest

Improve governance

• Strengthen governance and institutional capacity through anti-corruption measures, inclusive decision-making and enhanced policy monitoring
• Establish robust monitoring and evaluation systems to ensure policy effectiveness and adapt strategies to meet changing needs
• Promote youth engagement and political inclusion to leverage Gabon’s demographic advantage for governance improvements and innovation

Improve macroeconomic governance

• Optimise revenues and improve spending discipline, efficiency and targeting to reinforce fiscal sustainability
• Broaden the tax-base to address high levels of inequality as well as informality

Improve natural resource governance

• Strengthen anti-corruption frameworks to address inefficiencies in resource management and ensure transparent use of revenues from crude oil and mining
• Continue to enhance transparency in the extractive sector in the framework of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) which Gabon rejoined in 2021

Diversify the economy

• Prioritise economic diversification and invest in value-added processing industries to reduce Gabon’s overreliance on oil, ensuring that Gabon captures more value from its natural resources and improve the economy’s long-term economic resilience
• Initiate reforms to create jobs and local value-addition in sustainable forestry, mining, agriculture and fisheries
• Encourage the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) through financial support, capacity-building programs and access to markets and the promotion of value chains by investing in adding value to raw materials to create more jobs and stimulate local industries
• Improve the business environment to attract FDI for both infrastructure projects as well as the manufacturing sector
• Invest in agriculture to reduce food import dependency and increase food security

Invest in human capital (education and health)

• Increase education and health expenditure and optimise resource allocation
• Invest in rural infrastructure to improve access to schools as well as healthcare services
• Reduce drop out and repetition rates through targeted interventions, such as strengthening early childhood education and reduce gender disparities
• Improve quality and accessibility of science and technical education by equipping schools with modern laboratories and science teaching materials
• Promote a demographic dividend by expanding family planning services and access to contraceptives
• Build on past successes to reduce infant mortality and mortality for children under-five in line with the Sustainable Development Goal targets of 12 deaths per 1000 live births and 26 deaths by 2030, respectively
• Strengthen the healthcare system to address both the persistent burden of communicable as well as the growing burden of non-communicable diseases

Maximise opportunities under the AfCFTA and promote Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

• Maximise opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) to enhance exports and integrate Gabon into regional and Africa-wide value chains
• Simplify trade procedures and facilitate access to regional markets to support greater integration and export growth within Africa
• Diversify into sustainable industries such as eco-tourism and sustainable forestry to ensure Gabon remains competitive in a low-carbon global economy and improves its long-term trade balance
• Improve the business environment to attract private sector investment, with a focus on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and fostering innovation
• Support private sector-led initiatives in renewable energy, agro-processing and digital services to drive economic growth
• De-risk investments through public-private partnerships, streamlined regulatory frameworks and targeted incentives to encourage domestic and foreign investors

Expand infrastructure development:

• Expand infrastructure development (roads, rail and ports) and invest in renewable energy production
• Promote renewable energy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels
• Scale up investments in hydro
• Encourage private investment in renewable energy projects through incentives, de-risking mechanisms and supportive regulatory frameworks