The Future of Africa: Challenges and Opportunities
(April 2021)
About this book
This book present a cohesive story about human and economic development in Africa revolving around three essential questions:
- Where does Africa find itself today in relation to the situation elsewhere in the world and generally, what explains this state of affairs?
- Given historical trends and what we know about the world, where do we think Africa will be in 2040? And
- What can be done to improve this trajectory and create a better tomorrow for the continent?
This book describes and models the impact of a series of fundamental transitions in health, demographics, agriculture, education, manufacturing, technology, trade integration, stability and governance that is needed if Africa is to narrow and start closing the gap in development between itself and the rest of the world. It is an updated version of Africa First! Unleashing a Growth Revolution that was published in South Africa by Jonathan Ball in 2020 and uses a more recent version of the International Futures forecasting platform with updated data and some modelling improvements, among various other changes. The structure of the book has also been rearranged to more logically first deal with health, then demographics, agriculture, education, etc.
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1: The Growing Gap
In this chapter Cilliers introduces the growing divergence in income and other indices of well-being between Africa and the Rest of the World. He touches on various aspects such as extreme poverty and Africa’s marginal role in the global economy and illustrates the challenge by comparing the divergent experiences of South Korea and Ghana in demographics and income, before moving to introduce matters relating to productivity, digitisation, agriculture and manufacturing. The chapter presents key characteristics of Africa compared to other countries and regions to 2040, defines some of the terms, introduces the International Futures forecasting platform that is used for the forecasts, and the structure of the book.
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2: Africa's Current Path
Cilliers provides a summary and analysis of Africa’s development history since the 1980s including the impact of the Brundtland Commission report that culminated in the Millennium Development Goals and, in 2015, the Sustainable Development Goals. Other key matters covered in the chapter are the impact of the various structural adjustment programmes, Africa’s growing dependence upon commodities, the continents rapid democratisation and slow pace of urbanisation. The chapter concludes with a summary of key characteristics of Africa’s likely future—the Current Path forecast to 2040—that includes a forecast of economic size, demographics, income and poverty levels.
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3: Health
In this chapter Cilliers covers Africa’s unique epidemiological history from the early migration of homo sapiens to the devastation of HIV/AIDS and, more recently, the unfolding impact of COVID-19. It explains how humans’ proximity to nature, slow urbanisation and Africa’s distinct climatic conditions have led to an unusually high burden of communicable diseases, particularly the HIV/AIDS pandemic. The chapter also explains the double-burden of communicable and non-communicable disease evident in Africa. The chapter highlights the central role that infrastructural improvements and urban planning play in supporting better health outcomes and impact that poor basic infrastructure and lack of urban planning has in much of Africa. The chapter places a particular emphasis on the central role of potable water and water-borne sanitation in preventing the spread of disease. Finally, scenario analysis is used to demonstrate the relationship between health and economics.
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4: Getting to Africa’s Demographic Dividend
In this chapter, Cilliers defines the demographic dividend and explains its relationship to economic growth, with a focus on the African continent. It first covers the fundamentals of the relationship between population and economics, then offers an in-depth discussion of two key concepts, the demographic transition and demographic dividend. The chapter demonstrates that sub-Saharan Africa’s high fertility rates are a drag on development rather than an advantage, as the region can only expect to enjoy a demographic dividend after mid-century. It then uses scenario analysis to demonstrate that, given the right policy conditions, Africa can accelerate population driven economic growth by reducing its fertility rate through interventions in education, infrastructure, human capital and, most importantly, women’s empowerment.
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5: Wanted: A Revolution in Agriculture
Agriculture is the backbone of many African economies. Cilliers explores the history and role of agriculture in development, and the likely future trajectory of agriculture in Africa along the Current Path, drawing lessons from other regions. Improvements in this sector, particularly access to finance and use of modern technology can unlock the significant potential to achieve food security, improve health and nutrition outcomes, create agribusiness ventures that influence employment, earn foreign exchange through exports and promote economic prosperity. The chapter concludes with a scenario that emulates the impact of a revolution in agriculture on food security and growth.
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6: Boosting Education
In this chapter Cilliers provides an overview of trends in education in Africa and compares that with progress in other regions. In addition to a review of common educational outcomes such as measuring years of schooling, he places attention on the poor quality of education and roles of gender exclusion. That is followed by a summary of future education requirements and a scenario, Boosting Education, that explores the impact of improvements in the quality and quantity of education in Africa while taking advantage of technology to promote learning outcomes and human development.
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7: Poverty, Inequality and Growth
Cilliers first explores the progress that has been made globally in poverty reduction in a historical context and then the relationship between inequality and growth. He concludes that Africa will miss goal 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals on the elimination of extreme poverty by 2030 by a substantial margin. The chapter uses three income measures of extreme poverty for low, lower-middle and upper-middle countries to frame the current situation in Africa and then discusses and forecasts the impact of social grants on poverty alleviation. A final section presents the results of a scenario, Social Grants for Africa, and compares the results with the poverty forecast in the Current Path.
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8: Changing Productive Structures
In this chapter, Cilliers offers various explanations for Africa’s lack of sustained, structural economic transformation from low-value economic activities towards high-value services and manufacturing, and explores the challenges associated with the continent failing to industrialise. He offers historical context for how this situation emerged, drawing from global datasets such as trade data from the UN Conference on Trade and Development. The chapter then proceeds to look to the future of industrialisation in Africa in the context of technology-driven changes to the manufacturing sector globally via the fourth industrial revolution, which could offer the continent opportunities to gain a foothold in global value chains. The latter portion of the chapter models key interventions in a Made in Africa scenario, and examines its economic impact to 2040.
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9: The Future of Work in Africa
In this chapter, Cilliers addresses the challenge of widespread unemployment in Africa, and how trends collectively labelled as the ‘future of work’ could unfold on the continent. It describes the differences between the ways in which Africa will likely experience the effects of automation and digitisation on the labour market, and argues that the fourth industrial revolution is less a threat to jobs in Africa than in developed economies. Nevertheless, clear action is needed. Using Ghana as an example, the chapter explores innovative approaches to expanding inclusion in the formal sector, including enabling policies for financial inclusion and increased revenue collection. In addition, it speaks to Africa’s readiness to benefit from the emergent ‘gig economy’, and other forms of labour flexibilisation.
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10: Technological Innovation and the Power of Leapfrogging
Technological innovation and the notion of leapfrogging are imperative to Africa’s future and will shape development on the continent in ways that are difficult to anticipate. However, the impact of the shale and tight oil revolution in the USA demonstrates the potential of new technologies to leapfrog aspects of traditional development. This is most likely in the renewable energy space provided the challenges associated with energy storage can be overcome. Already the uptake of mobile phones and the internet have brought financial services to millions and mobile telephony is at the forefront of social change in Africa. Building on the example of what is happening in Ghana that was explored in Chapter 9, this chapter models the impact of a Leapfrogging scenario.
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11: Trade and Growth
Cilliers starts by exploring the modern history of international trade and the importance of trade to economic growth and global cooperation. The chapter then provides an overview of Africa’s trading partners, the need for greater regional integration in the continent and the challenges to achieving intra-regional cooperation. It examines the need to improve the quality of governance, bridge the infrastructure deficit and eventually focus on a manufacturing-led growth path. Reducing both tariff and non-tariff barriers could facilitate the successful implementation of African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), induce economic growth, increase per capita incomes and reduce poverty. A penultimate section models the potential impact of the AfCFTA on growth, poverty reduction and increased average incomes.
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12: Prospects for Greater Peace
In this chapter, Cilliers assesses historical and present conflict dynamics across Africa and how they relate to governance, demographics and socioeconomics. Woven throughout is a discussion on the role of peacekeepers and external involvement more broadly, the surge of terrorism in Africa and how these two phenomena bear upon one another. It assesses the origins, nature and implications of the declining trends in armed conflict and the emergence of urban protests as the key feature of violence and instability in much of Africa. In an alternative future scenario, Cilliers assesses what development outcomes Africa could expect if it were to succeed in reducing levels of instability in a scenario named Silencing the Guns.
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13: Good Governance, Democracy and Development
In this chapter, Cilliers explores how democracy has swept across the globe to become the dominant form of governance. Africa, too, has become increasingly democratic, but often in name only: regular elections are often façades for corrupt, autocratic regimes. Cilliers explains how, in fact, competitive politics in poorly developed countries with weak political institutions may actually hinder development. However, public support for democracy has surged in Africa and it is critical that African countries protect and advance the strides they have made towards substantive democratic governance. The Fourth Wave scenario laid out in this chapter demonstrates how a more democratic Africa would impact on development.
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14: Aid, Remittances and Foreign Direct Investment
Cilliers sheds light on the evolving global aid, investment and remittance landscape and what it means for Africa, with special attention to China’s growing presence on the continent, and compares that with others. Collectively the EU and its member states provide most aid although the USA is Africa’s largest single aid provider. Aid will remain important for lowincome countries but its importance is declining in favour of a focus on the need to attract larger volumes of foreign direct investment (FDI). An External Support scenario explores the impact of heightened aid, remittances and FDI on Africa’s development trajectory.
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15: Climate Change
On its current development trajectory the world is headed for serious climate change trouble. More carbon emissions will affect all of humanity and with its low adaptation capacity, arid climates and rainfalldependent agriculture, Africa is particularly at risk. Cillliers offers an in-depth assessment of the implications of climate change for Africans. In addition to reviewing the scientific consensus on the threats climate change is likely to pose in the coming decades, he sheds light on how Africa’s future trends in energy, population and lifestyle will affect carbon emissions. The chapter concludes by comparing Africa’s carbon emissions in four scenarios with the Current Path forecast, namely Made in Africa and Free Trade (highest carbon emissions) and Leapfrogging and Demographic Dividend (lowest carbon emissions).
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16: Closing the Gap
In this concluding chapter Cilliers presents a combined Close the Gap scenario that integrates the eleven scenarios that were modelled in the previous chapters and compares the impact with the Current Path prospects on dimensions such as income growth, economic size, impact on extreme poverty and carbon emissions. The chapter then moves on to compare the impact of the scenarios with one another. The results differ for low, lowermiddle and upper-income countries as well as over time. The differences are illustrated with reference to improvements for each income group in 2030, 2040 and 2050. The chapter then sketches out a broad description of a ‘standard economic growth model’ that emerges from the preceding analysis. It concludes by pointing to the similarities and differences compared to China’s recent history.
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About the author
Jakkie Cilliers
Dr Jakkie Cilliers is the ISS's founder and former executive director. He currently serves as chair of the ISS Board of Trustees and head of the African Futures and Innovation (AFI) programme at the Pretoria office of the Institute. His 2017 best-seller Fate of the Nation addresses South Africa’s futures from political, economic and social perspectives. His three most recent books, Africa First! Igniting a Growth Revolution (March 2020), The Future of Africa: Challenges and Opportunities (April 2021), and Africa Tomorrow: Pathways to Prosperity (June 2022) take a rigorous look at the continent as a whole.
