History of the site
The website consists of a Current Path forecast and various scenarios coinciding with the end of the third 10-year implementation plan of Agenda 2063, starting in 2024 and concluding in 2043. The analysis presented in this platform extends what was first provided in the book Africa First! Igniting a Growth Revolution (Jonathan Ball, 2020) and subsequent textbook The Future of Africa (Palgrave Macmillan, 2021).
From October 2020 to February 2021, we hosted 15 high-level global dialogues to refine the scenarios and forecasts. These sessions brought together some of the best minds globally and systematically reviewed our estimates of Africa’s likely development prospects. Then, from March 2021 to September 2021, AFI staff presented and discussed the forecasts across various platforms and events to benchmark and improve the scenarios further.
The website is constantly updated with new data and modelling improvements that measure progress.
The eight sectoral scenarios modelled on this site provide a comprehensive view of Africa's development prospects. These scenarios cover demographics and health, agriculture, health/WaSH, education, industrialisation, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, infrastructure and leapfrogging, financial flows (remittances, aid, FDI and illicit financial flows), and governance. These are then reflected in a combined scenario. In addition, we review the future of work/jobs, the impact of carbon emissions, Africa's energy transition, gender and development, and the impact of global developments on Africa (Africa in the World). This comprehensive coverage ensures that stakeholders are well-informed about all aspects of Africa's development.
Since it is unlikely that all African countries included in this forecast will simultaneously implement and advance along all these sectors, the site presents an optimistic upper ceiling for Africa's development prospects. Actual progress is likely to be more modest.
The website was officially launched by HE President Cyril Ramaphosa in June 2022. Also providing her endorsement and support was the CEO of the AUDA-NEPAD Agency Ms Nardos Bekele-Thomas.
For our work, we use the International Futures (IFs) forecasting model. It is developed and hosted by the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, USA. The IFs is an integrated platform for thinking about long-term, country-specific, regional and global development.
We constantly update the information we use by considering new geographical and thematic developments, also urging users to stay informed about the latest version of the IFs model and publication dates applied.
Scenarios
Our website features a detailed Current Path forecast which imitates continuing current policies and environmental conditions. It provides the likely development trajectory for Africa if no major shocks occur, and therefore sets the context for the ambitious improvements that could be achieved which we model in our diverse scenarios.
The Current Path aligns with the second 10-year implementation plan of the African Union's Agenda 2063, spanning from 2024 to 2033. We assess the impact of our scenarios up to 2043 which is the end of the third 10-year implementation plan and sometimes to 2063, providing long-term perspectives on Africa's development.
Initially, our website modelled 11 distinct scenarios for each geography or region, each linked to a specific theme. However, we revised this structure by the end of 2022 to provide a more balanced representation, now consisting of eight sectoral scenario for each geography. As part of this process we delinked the scenarios from themes meaning that each theme does not necessarily have a separate scenario. The eight scenarios are:
(1) Demographics and Health/WaSH: A more rapid demographic transition and investments in better health and water, sanitation and hygiene infrastructure.
(2) Agriculture: Food security and an agricultural revolution.
(3) Education: Better and more education looking at quantity, quality and relevance.
(4) Manufacturing: A low-end manufacturing transition.
(5) AFCFTA: The full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
(6) Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging: The impact of renewables, ICT and the more rapid formalisation of the informal sector.
(7) Financial Flows: More inward financial flows consisting of aid, foreign direct investment, remittances and illicit financial flows.
(8) Governance: Better governance consisting of stability, capacity and inclusion.
Some scenarios are, therefore, associated with two themes. An example is scenario (1) which combines parameters for both ‘Demographics and Health’, despite these two themes being discussed in detailed content on the separate subpages ‘Demographics’ and ‘Health/WaSH’.
The Combined Scenario is a combination of all eight sectoral scenarios and includes the synergystic (or additional) effect. It amalgamates their impacts to provide an optimistic continental view of Africa's developmental ceiling by 2043. Actual improvement is likely more modest.
In addition to the geographies and themes, we delve into the impacts on the various scenarios on employment, energy, climate change and gender which are presented on separate theme pages. A final theme, ‘Africa in the World’ models global influences on Africa's progress.
The relationship of all scenarios to one another is depicted below:
Modelling platform
IFs forecasts development for 186 countries and their interaction, including 54 countries and territories in Africa. It blends different modelling techniques to form relationships based on academic literature to generate forecasts. IFs is, therefore, a dynamic, recursive system with annual time-steps. It uses historical data from 1960 (where available) to identify trends and produce a 'Current Path' scenario from 2019 (the current base year) to 2100. The Current Path scenario (or Base Case) is, therefore, a result of dynamic interactions across critical systems based on prevailing policies and environmental conditions rather than a linear extrapolation of trends.
IFs is one of the few global modelling platforms capable of projecting SDG achievement across all SDGs at the country level and has been widely used in the analysis of African development. Collectively, the IFs platform projects more than 700 variables, of which more than 100 represent the goals and targets of the SDGs. IFs still uses several traditional measures of economic size, growth and distribution, such as GDP, GDP per capita, Gini and GEM (gender empowerment measure). New indices and data are phased in as global data sets become available, often only several years after the launch. Examples include using the UNCTAD Inclusive Growth Index and the UNDP Gender Development Index (GDI).
Data in Africa is a big problem. For instance, in 12 African countries, the last census was conducted before 2010, and no census has been completed after the cessation of South Sudan from Sudan, meaning that basic statistics for these two countries should be treated with caution. The latest census in Somalia was conducted in 1987. Poor data inevitably translates into poor forecasts, including for the SDGs, where indicators such as secondary school enrolment and completion have notable gaps.
With that caveat, the data series within IFs (more than 5,500 series integrated within it) come from a range of international sources like the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Health Organization (WHO), various United Nations (UN) bodies like Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and United Nations Population Fund (UNPF), etc. These organisations invest considerable resources in harmonising data for comparisons between countries and sometimes use alternative sources to estimate missing data. Still, the available data often needs to catch up to the current year.
Forecasting requires that IFs be able to initialise from this incomplete historical data. To fill the associated 'data gaps', IFs has a powerful pre-processing function that estimates current data and allows for forecasts. Because IFs produce forecasts that move beyond a linear extrapolation, their projections have historically been comparable to the data that international organisations and national governments ultimately release.
Where possible and where data is available and comparable, we update the data in IFs with national statistics sourced from national data providers. This is, however, labour-intensive and only possible when doing extended analysis on a specific country or region. National governments may also use different standards and definitions, such as national poverty instead of the international poverty line, meaning that updates must be validated and done with care.
The IFs model integrates forecasts for different sub-modules: population, economy, agriculture, education, energy, governance, international politics, environment, technology, infrastructure, health, etc. These sub-modules are dynamically connected, so the model simulates how changes in one system lead to changes in all other systems. As a result, IFs endogenises more relationships from a broader range of critical global systems than any other model. Below is a visual representation of the significant sub-modules in IFs, followed by an explanation of some.
Link to Understanding the IFs model.
The IFs economic module is a complex, global system that predicts economic changes every year. It links detailed country data and global information to understand how economies interact. Here are its key features:
- Economic Growth: The model predicts economic growth by considering factors like productivity, capital (like machinery and buildings), and labour (workers).
- Government Role: It has a detailed way of showing how governments earn and spend money.
- Balanced Economy: It balances different parts of the economy, like farming, energy, and technology, and includes informal (unofficial) economic activities. It also looks at income inequality and poverty.
- Inputs and Outputs: Information from other areas affects how much is produced, and the model's results (like GDP) are important for other areas.
- Model Foundations: The model uses established economic theories and a production formula (Cobb-Douglas) that includes labour, capital, and multifactor productivity (how effectively resources are used). Multifactor productivity depends on factors like education, government effectiveness, infrastructure, and research.
- Economy Sectors: The economy is divided into six areas: agriculture, raw materials, energy, manufacturing, services, and technology. The model makes sure that production and trade are balanced.
- Government Spending and Debt: Changes in government debt influence spending patterns that then affect areas like education and infrastructure.
- Poverty Analysis: It looks at poverty by considering production, resource distribution, and population changes. It uses a complex formula (Cobb-Douglas with Solow residual) and considers income distribution and inequality to predict changes in poverty. Poverty data is initially taken from the World Bank's PovCalNet.
For more technical information on the IFs economic module, including poverty, see:
The IFs infrastructure model looks at two types:
- Core Infrastructure: This includes roads, electricity generation, water and sanitation facilities, and Information and Communication Technology (ICT).
- Other Infrastructure: This covers railroads, ports, and airports.
The model mainly predicts changes in physical infrastructure, like road density, electricity availability, irrigation systems, and access to water and sanitation. Here's how it works:
- Water and Sanitation Access: Access is divided into categories: unimproved, improved, and piped water; and unimproved, shared, and improved sanitation. Predictions for future access are based on factors like GDP per capita, average education years of adults, government health spending, and urban population share. However, the actual increase in safe water and sanitation access depends on available government funding.
- Electricity Access: This is predicted based on population changes, urbanisation, government effectiveness, and poverty levels. The model differentiates between rural and urban areas, usually assuming better urban access.
- Impact on Growth and Health: Infrastructure improvements affect economic growth by increasing productivity. Moreover, access to water and sanitation plays a crucial role in child health, including reducing undernourishment and stunting.
For more technical information on the IFs infrastructure model, see:
The IFs agriculture model focuses on three main areas: crops, meat, and fish. It examines their supply and demand, including imports, exports, and prices. These agricultural products are used for direct consumption, animal feed, industry, and food manufacturing. Key elements of the model include:
- Land and Water Use: It tracks how land and water are used, which is crucial for farming.
- Balancing Supply and Demand: Like in its economic model, IFs tries to balance agricultural supply and demand using a system that includes stocks and prices. It doesn't aim for perfect balance at every moment but tries to achieve it over time.
- Factors Affecting Production: Agricultural output depends on resources like land, livestock, capital, labour, climate, and technology. Technology improves how much can be produced, like higher crop yields or more meat from less feed grain.
- Losses and Wastage: The model considers losses at various stages – in the fields, during distribution, and at homes. These losses are influenced by average income.
- Demand Factors: Income, prices, and other factors shape demand for agricultural products. For instance, changes in what people eat can affect meat demand, impacting the need for crops used as animal feed. The use of crops for biofuels, influenced by energy prices, is also factored in.
For more technical information on the IFs agriculture model, see:
The IFs governance model predicts how governments will perform in three areas:
- Capacity: How well a government can function and serve its people.
- Inclusiveness: How much it includes different groups in decision-making.
- Security: The government's ability to maintain peace and prevent conflicts.
Key aspects of the module include:
- Government Security: This is influenced by how stable a country is and the likelihood of internal conflicts. Security affects the country's economy and population, including how people live and move.
- Corruption's Impact: Corruption is a crucial factor that affects government capacity. It impacts how effectively and responsibly a government operates.
- Determinants of Corruption/Transparency: Corruption levels are linked to several factors:
- Economic development (measured by GDP per capita).
- Gender empowerment and equality.
- The level of democracy in the country.
- Dependence on energy exports, although this is a less strong influence.
These factors explain about 80% of the differences in cross-country corruption, based on the latest data from Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI).
For more technical information on the IFs governance model, see:
The IFs education model predicts how education will develop in each country, focusing on:
- Adult Educational Attainment: The education levels achieved by adults.
- Children's Graduation Rates: How many children of the right age complete their education.
The model tracks students' journey from primary to tertiary education (like college), considering both boys and girls. It looks at factors like demographic changes and economic factors (the country's economic situation and how much the government invests in education).
The module measures education quantity (the number of students in school) and education quality (how well students perform in maths, science, and reading). Students’ progress through the education system from primary to higher levels based on transition rates (moving from one education level to the next), graduation rates (completing each education stage), and dropout and re-entry rates (leaving and rejoining the education system).
Education spending is linked to GDP per capita, demand for education (based on the number of children of school-going age), and government spending for education. The model also shows how education affects economic growth (through improving productivity) and population dynamics (influencing things like birth rates).
For more technical information on the IFs education model, see:
The IFs demographic model predicts population changes in each country. It looks at the number of people of different ages and genders and how this changes over time due to births, deaths, and people moving in or out of a country (migration). Here's how it works:
- Population Calculation: The number of people each year is calculated by taking the population from the previous year, adding new births, and subtracting deaths.
- Fertility Rates: This is about how many children the average woman is likely to have during her lifetime. As countries develop economically (higher GDP per capita) and adults get more education, the average number of children per woman typically decreases. Other factors like infant mortality rates and the use of contraception also play a role.
- Mortality Rates: This is about how many people die each year, which the health module of IFs helps to determine.
- Migration: The model predicts people moving between countries using a "push-pull" logic, meaning it looks at reasons why people might leave a country (push factors) and reasons why they might move to a country (pull factors).
For more technical information on the IFs demographic and health models, see:
The IFs energy model predicts how energy is used and produced in countries, focusing on:
- Demand and Supply: It looks at how much energy is needed (demand) and how much is available (supply). The model balances these by considering prices, trade, and investment.
- Factors Influencing Demand: Three main things shape energy demand:
- Economic Size: How big the economy is.
- Population: How many people are in the country.
- Energy Intensity: This measures how much energy is used for each unit of economic activity (GDP). It shows how efficiently energy is used and changes with:
- The country's development level.
- Advances in technology.
- Energy prices.
The Energy module is also used to assess current and future carbon emissions for Africa, especially resulting from the different sectoral scenarios and an anticipated energy transition. Data and estimates for carbon emissions are complex, and categories overlap. IFs provides data and forecasts of carbon emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production, originally from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), now from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), and includes estimates of carbon released due to deforestation and land use change. The associated forecasts presented in our themes on Africa's Climate Futures and Africa’s Energy Futures benefit from the breadth and interconnected nature of the IFs forecasting platform in a debate with vast datasets and analyses dedicated to specific matters but less attuned to the macro-implications and scenarios associated with energy transitions and the associated carbon emissions.
For more technical information on the IFs energy models, see:
Scenario interventions
Generally, for country analyses, the increases with each scenario parameter are benchmarked to reduce or eliminate any gap between the country and its peer income group and/or to represent an ambitious but achievable improvement over the forecast horizon compared to high achievers in that group.
We constantly review and improve the geographic and thematic scenarios. Initially the geographies used the same interventions that were used in the themes. As we undertake detailed geographic and thematic studies, we incorporate the more detailed interventions into subsequent versions. For example after a detailed study on gender, we updated the sectoral scenarios on education, health and manufacturing to incorporate the detailed findings on gender. Then as we review a country and better model potential improvements, such as in health in South Africa, that is again included in the sectoral scenario on Demographics and Health.
We regularly update to more recent versions of the IFs forecasting platform.
All interventions are for 10 years and maintained at the final value thereafter. Interventions originally started in 2024 to coincide with the first year of the second ten-year implementation plan of Agenda 2063. The start date for more recent reports is later.
Recent versions of IFs include the IMF three year growth forecast which is included as gdprext with gdpadjsw=0. The inclusion helps to smooth out the transition from the forecasts that initialises from the base year and subsequent recorded growth rates that may differ from the IFs forecast. Our interventions typically have first effect in the year after the three year IMF growth forecast.
The Demographics and Health scenario aims to increase contraceptive use (contrusm), access to piped water (watsafem), and improved sanitation (sanitation-improved). It also seeks to reduce maternal mortality (matmortatiom) and child mortality under five (hlmortcdchldm), while decreasing mortality rates from various diseases (hlmortm) such as AIDS, diahrroea, malaria, respiratory infection, cardiovascular disease and malignant neoplasm, other communicable and noncommunicable diseases and malnutrition (malnchpsamm).
In the Education scenario, efforts focus on increasing vocational education (edseclowrvocadd) (edsecupprvocadd), tertiary science and engineering graduates (edtersciencshradd), primary survival rates (edprisum), primary intake rates (edpriintnm), and transition rates at all educational levels (edseclowrtran) (edsecupprtranm), along with achieving gender parity (edprigndreqintn) in education by 2040. Additionally, efforts include improving the lower-secondary graduation rate (edseclowrgram), upper-secondary graduation rate (edsecupprgram), tertiary intake rate (edterintm), tertiary graduation rate (edtergradm), quality in primary education (edqualpriallm), quality in secondary education (edqualsecallm), primary gender parity time for intake (edprigndreqintn), lower-secondary gender parity time for transition (edseclowrgndreqtran), upper-secondary gender parity time for transition (edsecupprgndreqtran), and tertiary gender parity time for intake (edtergndreqint).
The Agriculture scenario plans to boost crop yields (ylm) and increase the multiplier on land actually irrigated (landirareaactualm). Additionally, efforts include increasing the multiplier on land equipped for irrigation (landirareaequipm), reducing the loss rate of agricultural production (aglossprodm), reducing the loss rate of agriculture as it moves from producer to consumer (aglosstransm), increasing the per capita calorie demand multiplier (clpcm), managing groundwater water withdrawal (waterwithdrawalm), and enhancing forest protection (forest). It also aims to improve access to rural roads (infraroadraitrgtyr) (infraroadraitrgtyr).
The Manufacturing scenario was changed as from IFs version 8.34 and thereafter. It originally included increasing government-to-household (welfare) transfers to unskilled (govhhtrnwelm) workers, improving the government regulation of business index multiplier (govbusregindm), boosting investment in the manufacturing sector (idsm), increasing research and development activities (randdexpm), raising government revenue (govrevm), and enhancing the total labor participation rate, with a more aggressive focus on female participation (labparm).
With IFs version 8.34 and more recent versions household transfers/social grants were moved to form part of the governance scenario. Previously the inclusion of transfers in the Manufacturing scenario provided an unrealistically aggressive result on poverty reduction. We also removed govrevm from the scenario.
The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario includes increasing the production of hydro energy (enpm - hydro), enhancing the energy production multiplier for other renewables (enpm - OthRenew), improving electricity access in urban areas (infraelecaccm - urban), improving electricity access in rural areas (infraelecaccm - rural), reducing electricity transmission and distribution loss (infraelectranlossm), boosting the ICT mobile broadband multiplier (ictbroadmobilm), lowering the cost multiplier for adding an ICT broadband connection (ictbroadcostm), reducing the cost of adding an ICT mobile broadband connection (ictmobilbroadcostm), increasing the ICT fixed broadband multiplier (ictbroadm), expanding the population with Internet access, increasing the percentage of paved roads (infraroadpavedpcntm), reducing the contribution of informal labor to employment (labinformshrm), and decreasing overall economic informality (gdpinformshrm).
The AfCFTA scenario promotes exports by enhancing the export shift in the manufacturing sector (xshift), increasing export multipliers for agriculture (XSM-Export multiplier - Agriculture), services (XSM-Export multiplier - Services), ICT (XSM-Export multiplier - ICT), materials (XSM-Export multiplier - Materials), and energy (XSM-Export multiplier - Energy). Additionally, the scenario aims to increase multifactor productivity (mfpadd) and reduce import tariffs through tax multipliers by country and sector for agriculture (Mtarifftaxrm - agriculture), manufacturing (Mtarifftaxrm - manufacturing), energy (Mtarifftaxrm - energy), services (Mtarifftaxrm - service), ICT (Mtarifftaxrm - ICT), and materials (Mtarifftaxrm - materials).
The Financial Flows scenario includes enhancing the worker remittances multiplier (xworkremitinm), the foreign aid receipts multiplier (aidrecm), the FDI stocks of investment from abroad multiplier (xfdistockm), the FDI stocks of outward investment multiplier (xfdistoutm), and the portfolio investment stocks of investment from abroad multiplier (xportfoliom).
The Governance scenario includes enhancing the democracy multiplier (democm), improving economic freedom (econfreem), boosting gender empowerment (gemm), and increasing the government corruption multiplier (govcorruptm). Additionally, efforts target government regulatory quality (govregqualm) and effectiveness (goveffectm). Early versions included a reduction in the probability (sfintlwaradd) and magnitude (sfintwarmagm) of state failure and internal war. Specifically, state failure through instability due to abrupt regime change is addressed, including event occurrence (SFINSTABALL) and magnitude (SFINSTABMAG), as well as state failure through instability due to abrupt regime transition. More recent versions of IFs (as from 8.22) now use hlmort (intinj) to increase mortality from intentional injuries instead of interventions on state failure. As from IFs 8.34 household transfers or cash grants (govhhtrnwelm) were removed from the Manufacturing scenario and moved to the Governance scenario. To fund these grants, we use a household tax rate multiplier (hhtaxrm).
The Combined scenario consists of the combination of the eight sectoral scenarios listed above.
The scenarios in the Climate theme explore various approaches to implementing a carbon tax (carbtax) aimed at reducing carbon emissions by increasing the cost of energy and thereby depressing demand.
- In the Wealthy Pay Scenario, the carbon tax (carbtax) is applied exclusively to high-income countries as classified by the World Bank (WB). This approach ensures that the countries with the greatest financial resources and historically highest emissions take the lead in mitigating climate change.
- The Polluters Pay Scenario implements a carbon tax (carbtax) on the top 20 highest carbon-emitting countries as of 2023. It specifically targets the largest contributors to global carbon emissions, increasing their energy costs to incentivize a reduction in their carbon footprint.
- The Everyone Pays Scenario applies a universal carbon tax (carbtax) across all countries worldwide. Each nation, regardless of its income level or carbon emission status, is subject to the same tax per ton of carbon emitted.
- The Differentiated Pay Scenario introduces a carbon tax (carbtax) with varying rates depending on the income classification of the country as defined by the World Bank:
- WB High-Income
- WB Upper-Middle-Income
- WB Lower-Middle-Income
- WB Low-Income
The scenarios in the Energy theme include several Current Path adjustments namely increased global military expenditure (gdsm) and the probability of state failure/internal war (sfintlwaradd), along with a reduction in government effectiveness (goveffectm) and an increase in hydro and nuclear production (enpadd). These parameters largely correlate with the Divided World scenario in Africa in the World.
- The Africa Energy Policy scenario aims to balance energy production, environmental sustainability and economic development. This involves reducing maximum oil production (enpoilmax) and oil production rates (enpm - oil), along with decreasing coal production (enpcoalmax), coal production capacity (enpadd - coal), and coal production rates (enpm - coal). Investment multipliers include increasing investments in renewable energy (eninvtm - OthRenew) and reducing investments in oil and coal (eninvtm - oil, eninvtm - coal), while increasing investments in gas and nuclear energy (eninvtm - gas, eninvtm - nuclear) to diversify the energy mix. The scenario also addresses environmental impact by implementing forest protection measures (forestm) in key African countries to reduce deforestation and promote reforestation, and setting targets for reducing carbon emissions from coal, oil, and gas (carfuels1, carfuels2, carfuels3) to align with global climate goals.
- The Sustainable Africa scenario combines the Africa Energy Policy scenario with the Combined scenario, removing parameters incompatible with a divided world context to ensure cohesive and sustainable development strategies across the continent.
The scenarios in the Gender theme aim to increase female and male labour participation rates (Labparm) and reduce gender wage gaps (labwagesexratm). The theme focuses on enhancing gender empowerment (gemm) and increasing access to contraceptives (contrusm) to improve health outcomes. This includes reducing maternal mortality (matmortratiom) and the share of females aged 15-19 in marriage or union (married femshrm), as well as reducing food insecurity for both females and males (food insecuritym). Additionally, the scenario seeks to increase primary net intake rates (edpriintnm), primary survival rates, lower- and upper-secondary transition and graduation rates, and tertiary intake and graduation rates for both genders. It also aims to boost vocational education shares at lower- and upper-secondary levels and improve primary and secondary education quality for males.
The scenarios in Africa in the World theme use the following parameters:
- The Divided World scenario includes a modest carbon tax (carbtax), increased government expenditure on the military (gdsm), and lower government effectiveness (goveffectm). There is also an increase in the probability of state failure and internal wars (sfintlwaradd).
- The World at War scenario includes an increase in fossil fuel use (resorm) in both oil and gas sectors, higher total fertility rate (tfrm), and protectionist trade measures (protecm) which increase import prices. Government spending on the military (gdsm) increases, government effectiveness (goveffectm), corruption (govcorruptm), and democracy levels (democm) decline along with a heightened probability of state failure and internal wars (sfintlwaradd).
- The Growth World scenario increases the use of fossil fuels (resorm) in the oil and gas sectors, increases economic investment (invm), reduces protectionism in trade (protecm), and enhances exports (xsm). It also reduces the firm tax rate (firmtaxrm) and promotes economic freedom (econfreem).
- The Sustainable World scenario has two components.
- For the World except Africa group the parameters reduce capital costs in energy production from renewables (qem-Q), adjusts the total fertility rate (tfrm), and enhances forest protection (forestm). It incorporates a carbon tax (carbtax), increases welfare transfers from government to households (govhhtrnwelm), adjusts household tax rates (hhtaxrm), and increases government expenditure on health and education (gdsm). Other factors include foreign aid donations as a percentage of GDP (aiddon), adjustments to the firm tax rate (firmtaxrm), and enhancements in government effectiveness (goveffectm) and corruption reduction (govcorruptm).
- For Africa the interventions are similar to the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario.
Jakkie Cilliers
Dr Jakkie Cilliers is the ISS's founder and former executive director. He currently serves as chair of the ISS Board of Trustees and head of the African Futures and Innovation (AFI) programme at the Pretoria office of the Institute. His 2017 best-seller Fate of the Nation addresses South Africa’s futures from political, economic and social perspectives. His three most recent books, Africa First! Igniting a Growth Revolution (March 2020), The Future of Africa: Challenges and Opportunities (April 2021), and Africa Tomorrow: Pathways to Prosperity (June 2022) take a rigorous look at the continent as a whole.
Du Toit McLachlan
Mr Du Toit McLachlan joined the ISS in February 2021. He holds an honour’s degree in international relations from the University of Pretoria and is the AFI website manager. His research interests include gender equality, international trade, and international geopolitics.
Alize le Roux
Ms Alize le Roux joined the AFI in May 2021 as a senior researcher. Before joining the ISS, she worked as a principal geo-informatics researcher at the CSIR, supporting various local and national policy- and decision-makers with long-term planning support. Alize has 14 years of experience in spatial data analysis, disaster risk reduction and urban and regional modelling. She has a master’s degree in geographical sciences from the University of Utrecht, specialising in multi-hazard risk assessments and spatial decision support systems.
Kouassi Yeboua
Dr Kouassi Yeboua currently is a senior research consultant to the African Futures and Innovation programme in Pretoria. In his prior role as staff senior researcher, he recently served as lead author on ISS studies on the long-term development prospects of the DR Congo, the Horn of Africa, Nigeria and Malawi. Kouassi has published on various issues relating to foreign direct investment in Africa and is interested in development economics, macroeconomics, international economics, and economic modelling. He has a PhD in Economics.
Enoch Randy Aikins
Mr Enoch Randy Aikins joined the AFI in May 2021. Before that, Enoch was a research and programmes officer at the Institute for Democratic Governance in Accra. He also worked as a research assistant (economic division) with the Institute for Statistical Social and Economic Research at the University of Ghana. Enoch’s interests include African politics and governance, economic development, public sector reform, poverty and inequality. He has an MPhil in economics from the University of Ghana, Legon.
Blessing Chipanda
Dr Blessing Chipanda joined the African Futures and Innovation (AFI) programme in January 2023. Before joining the ISS he worked as an assistant lecturer/ research assistant at the University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. He is particularly interested in tasks within the wider realm of international trade, development economics, public policy, monetary policy, and econometric modelling. Equally interested in economic and socio-economic activities that impact social welfare. Blessing has a PhD in economics from the University of Pretoria, South Africa.
Judith Wessels
Ms Judy Wessels joined the ISS in April 2022 as a Programme Officer for the African Futures and Innovation Programme in Pretoria. Before joining the ISS, she worked as a project administrator focusing on eco-inclusive enterprise development and capacity building. Judy has ten years of administrative and financial work experience. She has a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of South Africa.
Tumi Mkhize-Malebo
Ms Tumi Mkhize-Malebo joined the ISS in May 2023 as an AFI intern and is now Junior Research Officer. Before that, Tumi worked as an operations intern at Uber. She holds a Bachelor’s degree in economics and econometrics from the University of Johannesburg and is a graduand set to complete her Honours degree in economics from the University of South Africa.
Priscillah Jurua
Ms Priscillah Jurua has been involved with the AFI project since September 2021 as the website co-ordinator. She has an extensive background in web design, development, administration and digital marketing. She holds a Msc Information Systems and Management from the University of Manchester as well as a Bachelors of Information Technology from Makerere University. She is passionate about the creative use of web technologies in the dissemination of information which facilitates decision making.
Julia Baum
Dr Julia Baum joined the AFI in January 2024 as Website Consultant, comprehensively reviewing content and enhancing the user experience. Since May 2024, she further acts as Communications Consultant curating the weekly Blog and monthly Newsletter. Julia has a background in environmental science and business administration. She combines work in the nature conservation sector with entrepreneurship.
Mike Muzekenyi
Dr Mike Muzekenyi is a Research Consultant at AFI. He is a dedicated Economist / researcher with a Ph.D. in Development Economics. Mike has contributed extensively to policy formulation, authoring over 15 research papers and 5 book chapters in accredited journals. His passion lies in transforming Africa’s economic landscape by conducting forward-looking research that paves the way for impactful policy formulation. His key areas of interest include agriculture, services, energy, and mining sectors he believes are critical to driving growth and development across the continent.
Marvellous Ngundu
Dr Marvellous Ngundu is a Research Consultant at AFI. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Johannesburg in South Africa. He is the recipient of the 2024 Megatrends Afrika Research Fellowship at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (ifw) in Germany, as well as the 2020/2021 fellowship program of the China Africa Research Initiative (CARI) at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies in the United States. His research interests lie in the fields of international, political, and development economics, with a particular emphasis on Africa-China economic relations.
Matthew Griffiths
Mr Matthew Griffiths is an independent visual artist and content creator who is responsible for the video material on this website. He collaborates with clients to synthesise their important messages into visual mediums such as motion graphic videos, documentaries and graphic designs. Matthew has a passion for meaningful storytelling and its ability to have a positive impact on the world.
Ichizu Wakabayashi
Ms Ichizu Wakabayashi is a project manager at Helios Design and is responsible for the design of the African Futures website. She is enthusiastic about user experience design, digital marketing ecosystems and design strategy. She is a certified IBM Enterprise Design Thinking Practitioner and has a bachelor’s degree in Business Management, Marketing and Business Communications from Bond University Australia.
Taka Wakabayashi
Mr Taka Wakabayashi is a lead developer at Helios Design and is responsible for the creation of the CMS backbone of the African Futures website. He specializes in sophisticated backend website development with a specific focus on cybersecurity. Taka completed his Internet Development studies at CTI South Africa.
"The website will greatly enrich public discourse and policy making and contribute to a better understanding of how Africa can harness its vast resources and extensive energies in the cause of common prosperity."
"In a time of both ‘information overload’ and ‘post truth politics’ the ISS African Futures site is a great place to stay updated on developments across Africa. As it is constantly updated, it provides us with a relevant tool and a valuable addition to more in-depth reports and historical publications."
"A remarkable source of data and analysis that builds upon the analysis presented in The future of Africa and the numerous country studies that the team has undertaken. An incredible guide to unlock Africa’s future potential."
"What are the opportunities and challenges for development and wellbeing in Africa? Cilliers and his team provide thought-provoking, evidence-based analyses and recommendations, constantly updating the various scenarios with new data to measure progress towards Agenda 2063. This is an impressive project that offers valuable insights to policymakers and scholars, and anyone interested in the future of the continent."
"The analysis presented on this site suggests that the future lies in Africa’s ability to seize the significant opportunities opened up by its youthful population, new technologies and infrastructure innovation. Jakkie Cilliers and his team build upon their long experience in analysing Africa. An essential resource for those interested in Africa’s development."
“Qualitative tools, like the International Futures model, provide insights into a range of interacting dynamics across issue areas that impact human development and help us plan and better shape and think about how the future unfolds.”
“The website provides information that is vital and will enhance our planning for the coming decade and forecasting that will help us to deliver accelerated results-based implementation as we cannot do business as usual.”
"Jakkie Cilliers and his ISS team's study on the future of African in the World is a model for anyone who aspires to contemplate in a systematic and comprehensive way the future, not just for Africa, but other regions of the world. The ISS team has managed to weave together the external global trends with those inside Africa to depict key scenarios for all of Africa as well as individual African states, showing the political, economic, technological and social implications."
“Economic development is all about strategic investments today that shape tomorrow. Africa Futures affords development practitioners an indispensable tool to rationalize investments, respond to shocks and map future development pathways.”
”I love the contributions and the extension of the conflict trajectories under different governance scenerios.”
SIDA
USAID
Hanns Seidel Foundation
Gov of Netherlands
AUDA-Nepad
Gov of Denmark
UNDP
Irish Aid
European Union
UK AID
Humanity United
Organisation internationale de la Francophonie