Comoros

This page provides an overview of the key characteristics of Comoros along its likely (or Current Path) development trajectory. The Current Path forecast from the International Futures forecasting (IFs) platform is a dynamic scenario that imitates the continuation of current policies and environmental conditions. The Current Path is therefore in congruence with historical patterns and produces a series of dynamic forecasts endogenised in relationships across crucial global systems. We use 2019 as a standard reference year and the forecasts generally extend to 2043 to coincide with the end of the third ten-year implementation plan of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 long-term development vision.

The Comoro Islands is an archipelago off the east coast of Africa located to the north of the Mozambique Channel. The island group is politically divided between Mayotte, an overseas Department of France, and The Union of the Comoros (Comoros), a sovereign country that gained independence in 1975 after they voted for self-determination in a French-organised referendum in 1974.

Comoros consists of three separate islands with the capital city Moroni located on the biggest island of Grande Comore (N’gazidja). It is a member of the regional economic communities of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and is one of 23 lower middle-income countries in Africa, according to the World Bank’s income classification.

The country’s location in the warm Indian Ocean exposes the country to intense tropical storms and cyclones. Seven tropical cyclones in the past four decades have caused devastation, with Cyclone Kenneth affecting 345 000 people and wiping out 80% of crop production in 2019. [1OCHA-ReliefWeb, Comoros: Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Emergency Appeal (MDRKM007) Final Report, 27 November 2020] Recovering from the 2019 devastation caused by Cyclone Kenneth was complicated with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 that affected the country’s tourism, service sector and export market of cash crops. The country’s economy is heavily reliant on subsistence farming and fishing while manufacturing is limited to the processing of agricultural products. Aid contributions from the EU heavily underpin the economy.

While Comoros boasts great ecotourism potential due to its rich biodiversity and tropical climate, the country is paralysed by its turbulent political history. More than 15 successful, attempted and plotted coups d’état have taken place in the period after independence, severely hampering the development potential of the country.

The geographical isolation of the island, its limited land resources, heavy agricultural subsistence reliance, political turmoil and the additional burden of climate change and natural hazards are all threatening the sustainable development of Comoros. Comoros’ development prospects are unpacked in more detail in the subsequent charts and sections.

Comoros’ population of 857 000 in 2019 gives it the position as the fourth smallest nation in Africa in population size and the third smallest in geographical area. Total fertility rates have dropped the past three decades, down from 7.1 births per woman in 1985 to 4.2 in 2019, slightly below the 4.3 average of lower middle-income Africa. The decline in fertility rates has slowed down population growth and in 2019 the growth rate was slightly below the average for lower middle-income Africa.

In the Current Path forecast, the population is expected to reach 1.4 million people by 2043 — an increase of 524 000 people in the next 24 years. This will place severe pressure on this small island state that is already battling high population densities and limited land. The drop in fertility rates continues to alter the age structure of the country with the median age expected to increase from 20.1 years in 2019 to 24.4 years by 2043. This figure is on par with the average of Africa that had a mean population age of 20 years in 2019, but it is slightly below the 20.8 years for lower middle-income Africa.

Comoros is at an early stage of the demographic transition and has a large youthful population (aged below 15 years). The working-age population (age 15–65) increased from 51% in 1990 to 58% in 2019, and the dependant population (elderly and young) made up 42% of the population in 2019. The country has a small elderly dependant population with fewer than 30 000 people aged 65 and over in 2019. This figure will more than double, reaching 74 000 by 2043 — the result of the large cohort between 30 and 65 years ageing together with a longer life expectancy, climbing by 4.6 years from 2019 to 2043. Despite the growing elderly dependency, the child dependant population group is expected to shrink from 39% in 2019 to 32% by 2043.

The country is expected to enter its first demographic dividend only towards the end of the forecast horizon, in 2043. The use of modern contraception by Comorian women remains low and in 2019 it was estimated at 21% of fertile women. It is important that the Comorian government ensures modern contraceptive availability, offering high quality and equitable services and continuing the generation of demand.[2Track20, Exploring Opportunities for mCPR Growth in Comoros, February 2020]

Comoros is a predominantly rural country with 71% of its population in 2019 living in rural agglomerations/clusters throughout the three islands, making it the fourth most rural country in lower middle-income Africa. Between 1960 and 1990, urbanisation rates increased rapidly from 12.6% to 27.9%, but have remained stable during the past three decades, while lower middle-income Africa has continued the urban transition growing from 21.2% in 1960 to 49.2% in 2019.

Rural clusters throughout Comoros host 610 000 dwellers and are small and scattered all over the three islands. Comoros has nine cities with populations above 10 000 with Moroni, the capital, located on the Grande Comore island being the largest with an estimated population of 43 000. Fomboni, located on Moheli has 15 000 people, while the Anjouan island has seven cities with more than 10 000 people. The largest city, Moutsamoudou, is home to an estimated 24 000 people.

Comoros is expected to remain predominantly rural throughout the forecast horizon, and by 2043 it is forecast that 67.1% of the population will still be living in rural spaces throughout the three islands. This is in contrast to the average urbanisation rate of lower middle-income Africa that is expected to be 59% compared to 32.9% for Comoros in 2043.

All three islands feature a rugged topography with steep peaks formed by volcanic activities. This places pressure on the coastal regions that have much higher population densities. Mount Karthala, one of the world’s most active volcanoes, is situated on Grande Comore and is surrounded by the protected Karthala forest, which limits development on its slopes and restricts available land for future development. Land pressure is one of the biggest constraints for development in Comoros.

Comoros is the third smallest country in Africa with a geographic size of 1 862 km2. This results in the third highest population density of 4.6 people per hectare in Africa with only Mauritius and Rwanda having more people per hectare. This high population density places intense pressure on natural resources and the environment. The country’s location and topography are among the most climate vulnerable in the world, and 54.2% of the population live in at-risk areas. [3World Bank, The World Bank in Comoros, 7 April 2022] In the Current Path forecast, the population densities are expected to increase to 7.4 people per hectare, significantly above the average for lower middle-income Africa that is projected to be 1 person per hectare by 2043.

Comoros has a very small economy measuring only US$1.4 billion in 2019 — the second smallest among African countries. The country’s economy is heavily reliant on agriculture as the majority of Comorians are dependent on subsistence farming, fishing, hunting and forestry to earn a livelihood and exports are limited to agricultural produce. Cloves, ylang-ylang and vanilla [4Trading Economics, Comoros Exports] comprise 84% of all exports from the island group. Poor harvest, high population densities, natural disasters and a general lack of performance in this sector have necessitated the importation of basic foodstuffs, and it is estimated that 70% [5Moody’s Analytics, Comoros - Economic Indicators] of Comoros’ food needs are met by imports.

The country’s economy remains underpinned by aid contributions from the EU, particularly France, and foreign remittance earnings. Comoros lacks mineral resources and manufacturing is limited to the processing of the few agricultural commodities produced. The country boasts great eco-tourisms potential but its turbulent political history and the lack of connectivity between the three islands and limited transportation routes severely hamper its potential.

Comoros was impacted by two successive shocks leading to a decline of the growth rate from 3.7%, on average in 2017 and 2018, to 1.8% in 2019 (Cyclone Kenneth) and −0.3% in 2020 (COVID-19 pandemic). The economy slightly recovered in 2021, however, growing by 2.4%. On the Current Path, the economy of Comoros is forecast to grow to US$4.5 billion by 2043 — an increase of US$3.1 billion within the next 24 years.

Although many of the charts in the sectoral scenarios also include GDP per capita, this overview is an essential point of departure for interpreting the general economic outlook of Comoros.

The country’s small economy, high import dependency, lack of resources and fragile state give rise to some of the worst income levels in lower middle-income Africa. In 2019, Comoros ranked third lowest among lower middle-income Africa with GDP per capita of US$2 818. The gap between Comoros’ income per capita and that of the average for lower middle-income Africa has risen since the 1990s. In 1990 the per capita income gap stood at US$1 592, and in 2019 it was US$4 158.

In the Current Path forecast, GDP per capita of Comoros is expected to increase to US$5 015 in 2043, US$4 127 and US$2 142 below the projected averages for lower middle-income Africa and Africa, respectively, in the same year.

The informal economy comprises activities that have market value and would add to tax revenue and GDP if they were recorded. Countries with high informality have a host of development challenges such as higher poverty, lower per capita incomes, greater inequality, and weaker productivity investment, among others.

Comoros has a large informal sector owing to its dependence on subsistence farming and lack of awareness of tax and social security procedures. [6IMF, Union of the Comoros: Selected issues, 29 June 2018] In 2019, the size of the informal economy was estimated at 32.9% of GDP, amounting to a value of US$427 million. This is 3.7 percentage points above the average of lower middle-income Africa and 7 percentage points higher than the average of Africa. The informal economy is an important employer in Comoros, and in 2019, 61% of Comoros’ labour force worked in the informal sector. A recent study [7IMF, Union of the Comoros: Selected issues, 29 June 2018] also suggests that informal employment creates the bulk of female employment in Comoros.

On the current development trajectory, the size of the informal sector is forecast to modestly decline to 27.2% of GDP by 2043. This will amount to an informal economy with a value of US$1.1 billion in 2043. The gap between Comoros and the rest of Africa’s informal sector will narrow significantly by 2043.

The IFs platform uses data from the Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) to classify economic activity into six sectors: agriculture, energy, materials (including mining), manufactures, service and information and communication technologies (ICT). Most other sources use a threefold distinction between only agriculture, industry and services with the result that data may differ.

The service sector contributes the most to Comoros’ GDP. In 2019, it accounted for nearly 58% of GDP, equivalent to US$800 million. The agriculture sector contributed as much as 23.2% to the country’s GDP in 2019 (US$300 million), while the manufacturing sector, which is limited to the processing of agricultural produce, contributed 11.4% in 2019 (US$200 million).

In the Current Path forecast, the contribution of the service sector is expected to contribute 66.5% (valued at US$3 billion) by 2043. The manufacturing sector is forecast to overtake the agriculture sector from 2036 to become the second largest contributor to GDP (15.4% of GDP or US$700 million) by 2043. The agriculture sector will account for only 10.1% of GDP by 2043 (valued at US$500 million), down from 23.2% of GDP in 2019, indicating the structural transformation of the economy.

The data on agricultural production and demand in the IFs forecasting platform initialises from data provided on food balances by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). IFs contains data on numerous types of agriculture but aggregates its forecast into crops, meat and fish, presented in million metric tons. Chart 9 shows agricultural production and demand as a total of all three categories.

Agriculture is a vital part of the Comorian economy with agricultural exports (cash crops) responsible for the majority of exchange earnings. Agricultural exports include ylang-ylang, vanilla and cloves and are grown in the lowlands next to the coast. Crops such as coconuts, bananas, cassava and sweet potatoes are grown in the highlands and are used primarily for domestic consumption. A large percentage of the population is dependent on subsistence rain-fed agriculture, making the agriculture sector extremely vulnerable to weather variability. Regular natural disasters have impacted food production extensively in the past.

In 2019, production stood at 470 000 metric tons, while demand stood at 500 000 metric tons, exceeding production by 30 000 metric tons. This production and demand gap is expected to increase in the Current Path forecast. By 2043, agricultural production is forecast to be 650 000 metric tons and demand would be 1 million metric tons, translating to a 350 000 metric ton shortfall. This paints a picture of a growing food-dependent country with a heavy importation bill, reliant on external markets while vulnerable to global shocks. The agriculture sector remains vital in the country’s fight against poverty and severe acute malnutrition. In 2019, chronic malnutrition led to stunting in 17% of the Comorian population while affecting an estimated 30% of children.

There are numerous methodologies for and approaches to defining poverty. We measure income poverty and use GDP per capita as a proxy. In 2015, the World Bank adopted the measure of US$1.90 per person per day (in 2011 international prices), also used to measure progress towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1 of eradicating extreme poverty. To account for extreme poverty in richer countries occurring at slightly higher levels of income than in poor countries, the World Bank introduced three additional poverty lines in 2017:

• US$3.20 for lower middle-income countries 
• US$5.50 for upper middle-income countries
• US$22.70 for high-income countries.

In 2019, the country’s score on the Human Development Index (HDI) was 0.554, placing it in 156th out of 189 countries. [8UNDP, Human Development Report 2020, Comoros, The Next Frontier: Human Development and the Anthropocene] The country has made steady progress in raising GDP per capita since 2000, increasing mean and expected years of schooling and extending life expectancy. Using the US$3.20 extreme poverty threshold for lower middle-income countries, Comoros had 33.3% of its population (290 000 people) living below the poverty line in 2019. While this is 16.8 percentage points below the average of lower middle-income Africa, serious concerns remain in regard to income inequality, especially between urban and rural spaces. [9IMF, Union of the Comoros: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper—Review of the Second Year of Implementation, IMF Country Report No. 13/39, February 2013] Poverty remains highest in rural areas, especially on the Nzwani (Anjounan) island. [10IMF, Union of the Comoros: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper—Review of the Second Year of Implementation, IMF Country Report No. 13/39, February 2013] These areas lack sufficient services and housing.

Nearly 75% of the population classified as poor are self-employed and more than 50% depend on subsistence farming, [11World Bank, Union of Comoros, Comoros poverty assessment, April 2017] which made Cyclone Kenneth in 2019 especially devastating as it had an enormous impact on crop production. The impact felt from the COVID-19 pandemic on the back of Cyclone Kenneth pushed the country’s fight against poverty back, but the country is forecast to recover in the short term. In the Current Path forecast, the extreme poverty rate is forecast to decline to 14.1% in 2043 (using the US$3.20 benchmark), equivalent to 100 000 people. The projected extreme poverty rate in Comoros by 2043 is 24.2 percentage points below the average for lower middle-income Africa in the same year.

The IFs platform forecasts six types of energy, namely oil, gas, coal, hydro, nuclear and other renewables. To allow comparisons between different types of energy, the data is converted into billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE). The energy contained in a barrel of oil is approximately 5.8 million British thermal units (MBTUs) or 1 700 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy.

Comoros was created by volcanic activity, and the main island of Grande Comoros is home to Mount Karthala, one of the largest active volcanoes in the world. This volcano covers two-thirds of the Grande Comoros island group and boasts enormous untapped geothermal potential.[12OCHA-ReliefWeb, Comoros: Between the devil and the deep blue sea, 8 December 2008] The country also has sufficient hydroelectric resources to meet local energy needs.[13AfDB, Comoros – Promotion of renewable energy in Comoros – Enabling Environment – SEFA Appraisal Report, 21 December 2020]

However, Comoros remains significantly dependent on fossil fuels and biomass. In 2019, energy production from coal stood at 1 million barrels of oil equivalent — 60% of total energy production. In 2019, gas and oil also contributed to the country’s energy mix making up the remaining 40% of the total energy production. If the geothermal potential of the country is realised, this dependency can be expected to decrease significantly by 2043. Clean geothermal power has the potential to generate a surplus of electricity for the island group.[12OCHA-ReliefWeb, Comoros: Between the devil and the deep blue sea, 8 December 2008]

Carbon is released in many ways, but the three most important contributors to greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4). Since each has a different molecular weight, IFs uses carbon. Many other sites and calculations use CO2 equivalent.

Comoros is an extremely low carbon emitter, with carbon emissions of 100 000 tons in 2019. In 2019, the country was the second lowest emitter of carbon in Africa and ninth lowest in the world. In the Current Path forecast, carbon emissions are likely to increase to 400 000 tons by 2043, the result of the projected increased economic activity. The country has great geothermal and sufficient renewable (specifically hydroelectricity) potential and needs to bring renewables into the energy mix urgently.

The Stability scenario represents reasonable but ambitious reductions in risk of regime instability and lower levels of internal conflict. Stability is generally a prerequisite for other aspects of development and this would encourage inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and improve business confidence. Better governance through the accountability that follows substantive democracy is modelled separately.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

In the decades since independence, the country has experienced numerous coups d’état resulting in changes of government. The socio-political tension and repeated instability have categorised the Comoros as a fragile state. [14World Bank, Union of Comoros, Comoros poverty assessment, April 2017.] Since the 2016 elections, the newly elected government has introduced a series of structural reforms to bring about a climate of stability and peace, which has improved the fragility substantially. [15World Bank, The World Bank in Comoros, 7 April 2022]

IFs’ governance security index ranges from 0 (low security) to 1 (high security). In 2019, Comoros’s score on the governance security index was 0.74, slightly above the average of 0.72 for lower middle-income Africa and significantly above the average of 0.69 for Africa. Comoros performs significantly below the average of its income peers in governance effectiveness, with a score of 1.07, compared to 1.9 income average. However, it performs above the average of its income peers in regard to governance capacity and inclusion.

Comoros stands to gain substantially from the interventions proposed in the Stability scenario. In this scenario, the score for Comoros on the governance security index is 0.87 by 2043, compared to 0.79 in the Current Path forecast.

In the Stability scenario, GDP per capita will grow from US$2 831 in 2019 to US$5 216 in 2043, US$201 more than in the Current Path forecast for the same year. In both the Current Path forecast and the Stability scenario, GDP per capita remains significantly below the average for lower middle-income African countries throughout the forecast horizon to 2043.

The Stability scenario has a positive impact on poverty reduction and will start to benefit the country from 2029 onwards. The extreme poverty rate in this scenario is likely to reach 12.9% by 2043, 1.2 percentage points lower than in the Current Path forecast. The Stability scenario would therefore have 10 000 fewer poor people than in the Current Path forecast in 2043. The poverty rate will remain significantly below the projected average for lower middle-income Africa.

This section presents the impact of a Demographic scenario that aims to hasten and increase the demographic dividend through reasonable but ambitious reductions in the communicable-disease burden for children under five, the maternal mortality ratio and increased access to modern contraception. 

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Demographers typically differentiate between a first, second and even a third demographic dividend. We focus here on the contribution of the size of the labour force (between 15 and 64 years of age) relative to dependants (children and the elderly) as part of the first dividend. A window of opportunity opens when the ratio of the working-age population to dependants is equal to or surpasses 1.7.

Comoros has a low ratio of working-age people to dependants. In 2019, this ratio was 1.4, below the required minimum value of 1.7 needed to expect the materialisation of the demographic dividend. In the Demographic scenario, it is forecast that the ratio of working-age people to dependants will increase much quicker than in the Current Path forecast as more people enter the working-age group. 

In the Demographic scenario, a rate of 1.7 working-age persons to dependants is expected in 2039 for Comoros. The Demographic scenario will likely aid Comoros in reaping the demographic dividend five years earlier than projected in the Current Path forecast.

The infant mortality rate is the number of infant deaths per 1 000 live births and is an important marker of the overall quality of the health system in a country.

Infant mortality rates in Comoros have significantly and remarkably dropped since 1960. In 1960, deaths per 1 000 live births stood at 171 and by 2019 this figure had dropped to 41. Infant mortality rates in Comoros are 5.6 deaths per 1 000 lives fewer than the average for lower middle-income Africa and 6 deaths fewer than the average for Africa.

In the Current Path forecast, infant mortality will be reduced to 20 deaths per 1 000 live births by 2043, still significantly below the expected average for lower middle-income Africa. The Demographic scenario positively influences this trajectory and will result in 3.3 fewer deaths per 1 000 live births by 2043.

In the Demographic scenario, GDP per capita will grow from US$2 831 in 2019 to US$5 130 in 2043 — US$115 more than in the Current Path forecast for the same year. In both the Current Path forecast and the Demographic scenario, GDP per capita remains significantly below the average for lower middle-income African countries throughout the forecast horizon to 2043.

The interventions proposed in the Demographic scenario have a small impact on poverty reduction in Comoros. The poverty rate in this scenario is likely to reach 13.3% by 2043, 0.8 percentage points lower than in the Current Path forecast. The scenario would therefore lift an additional 10 000 people out of poverty. The poverty rate will remain significantly below the average for lower middle-income Africa.

This section presents reasonable but ambitious improvements in the Health/WaSH scenario, which include reductions in the mortality rate associated with both communicable diseases (e.g. AIDS, diarrhoea, malaria and respiratory infections) and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) (e.g. diabetes), as well as improvements in access to safe water and better sanitation. The acronym WaSH stands for water, sanitation and hygiene.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Life expectancy in Comoros has drastically improved over the past couple of decades. In 1960, the average Comorian could expect to reach an age of 41 years. By 2019, life expectancy climbed to 68 years.
Currently, Comorians’ life expectancy is 2 years above the average for African countries and is on par with the average for lower middle-income Africa.

In the Current Path forecast, life expectancy in Comoros is expected to continue improving, reaching 72.5 years by 2043. Comorian households, however, continue to suffer from poor access to safe water and adequate sanitation. The interventions proposed in the Health/WaSH scenario have a neglectable effect on extending life expectancy. By 2025, in the Health/WaSH scenario life expectancy of lower middle-income Africa will exceed Comoros. In this scenario, life expectancy on average in lower middle-income Africa will be nearly 2 years above that of Comoros by 2043.

The Health/WaSH scenario will have a small impact on reducing infant deaths compared to the Current Path forecast, although only by a small margin. This scenario will lower the under-five mortality rate to 20 deaths per 1 000 live births by 2043 — 0.2 deaths fewer compared to the Current Path forecast.

The Agriculture scenario represents reasonable but ambitious increases in yields per hectare (reflecting better management and seed and fertiliser technology), increased land under irrigation and reduced loss and waste. Where appropriate, it includes an increase in calorie consumption, reflecting the prioritisation of food self-sufficiency above food exports as a desirable policy objective.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

The data on yield per hectare (in metric tons) is for crops but does not distinguish between different categories of crops.

The agrofood sector (agriculture, stockbreeding and fishing) is the leading engine for the Comorian economy. This sector employs the majority of the population, contributes significantly to household income, constitutes the leading source of foreign exchange, and provides the bulk of the products consumed by the population, although food imports are still substantial. [16World Bank, The World Bank in Comoros, Comoros poverty reduction and growth strategy paper]

The sector has a very narrow base and the three top export commodities of vanilla, cloves and ylang-ylang provide an estimated 90% of all export earnings. The sector's main strategy of cultivating more forest land has also raised significant questions in regard to sustainability. The sector lacks the mainstreaming of modern technologies and subsistence farming lacks productivity and value addition. [17World Bank Group, The Union of the Comoros: Jumpstarting Agricultural Transformation, Agriculture Sector Review, Report No. P164195] The country’s dependence on food imports also exposes the economy to volatility in global markets and the sector is extremely vulnerable to climate shocks. In 2019, agricultural yields in Comoros stood at 3.7 metric tons per hectare — 1.4 tons per hectare fewer than the average for lower middle-income countries in Africa and 0.2 metric tons per hectare fewer than the average for Africa.

The country stands to benefit significantly from increased yields through better management and reduced loss and waste. Investing in climate-smart agriculture can help the sector weather some of the climate storms while modern production and processing technologies can aid in improving yields. In the Agriculture scenario, it is forecast that yields will increase to 8.5 metric tons per hectare by 2043. The Agriculture scenario will therefore improve yields with 3.6 metric tons per hectare compared to the Current Path forecast that stands at 4.95 metric tons in 2043.

Comoros is vulnerable to food insecurity and relies heavily on food imports. Local production within the country is not keeping pace of the growing demand. In 2019, total agricultural demand exceeded production, with import dependency equivalent to 7.7% of total demand. On the Current Path, by 2043 demand is forecast to continue exceeding production, resulting in a significant import dependency of 36.9% of total demand.

The Agriculture scenario will benefit Comoros by increasing land access to irrigation and improving yields. In this scenario, Comoros can lower its import dependency significantly and even become a net exporter of foods by 2043. Lowering its import dependence will be beneficial to the Comorian economy as it will release funds for other productive investments in the economy. It would also improve the country's current account balance and make it less vulnerable to international food price shocks.

By 2043, the Agriculture scenario will have a significant impact on GDP per capita, increasing by US$481 over the Current Path forecast. This will result in a GDP per capita of US$5 496 in 2043. Comoros’ GDP per capita will however remain significantly below the average for lower middle-income countries in Africa throughout the forecast horizon.

Comoros’ agriculture sector is underperforming and can benefit substantially from interventions therein. The Agriculture scenario will therefore have a positive impact on poverty reduction in the country. The scenario has a more immediate impact on reducing poverty and will reduce poverty by 2.5 percentage points compared to the Current Path forecast in 2043, lifting an additional 30 000 people out of poverty.

Boosting the agriculture sector’s efficiency is vital to improving livelihoods and transforming the economy of Comoros. More investment in the sector will increase consumption and income, and even pave the way for agro-industry, positively affecting growth and poverty reduction.

The Education scenario represents reasonable but ambitious improved intake, transition and graduation rates from primary to tertiary levels and better quality of education. It also models substantive progress towards gender parity at all levels, additional vocational training at secondary school level and increases in the share of science and engineering graduates.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Only ten countries in Africa spend less than 3% of GDP on education, and Comoros is one of them. In 2019, Comoros spent 2.7% of its GDP on education, the lowest among lower middle-income Africa. Education in Comoros is mandatory until age 16 but a large percentage of the population does not attend school, [18Leeda Jewayni, Education in Comoros, The Borgen Project] resulting in a low literacy rate of 61% in 2019.

The gap between female and male learners is noticeable with mean years of education among the female population group 1.2 years lower than that of males. The mean years of education in Comoros was 7.5 in 2019, slightly higher than the average of 7.2 years for lower middle-income Africa and more than a year higher than the average for Africa.

Increased investment in education as proposed in the Education scenario will increase literacy rates to 92% by 2043. The Education scenario also has the potential to increase mean years of education by 2043 to 9 years compared to 8.7 in the Current Path forecast.

While Comoros has higher school attendance rates compared to the average of its income peers, its learning outcomes are poor and quality education lacks. In 2019, Comoros primary test score was 32.2 out of 100, which is lower than the average of 33.6 for lower middle-income Africa. The interventions proposed in the Education scenario can lift the primary test score to 41.8, 6.2 percentage points above the Current Path forecast by 2043.

In the Education scenario, the test score for Comoros at secondary level is 41.5, which is slightly below the average for lower middle-income Africa. The Education scenario is expected to result in test scores for secondary learners of 52.7 by 2043. This is 9.1 percentage points higher compared to the Current Path forecast at 43.6.

Quality education is crucial for economic development. It not only allows the country to increase its current added value but also creates tomorrow's technological innovations. Thus, Comorian authorities should accelerate reforms to improve the quality of education in the country.

By 2043, GDP per capita in Comoros in the Education scenario is expected to increase to US$5 160 —US$145 more compared to the Current Path forecast. GDP per capita for Comoros is expected to continue to perform significantly below the average for its lower middle-income peers in Africa throughout the forecast horizon to 2043.

In the Education scenario, it is expected that poverty in Comoros will decrease to 12.9% by 2043, down from 33.3% in 2019. This is a 1.2 percentage points lower than the Current Path forecast of 14.1% by 2043. In 2043, the number of poor people in the Education scenario is 10 000 fewer than the Current Path forecast.

The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario represents reasonable but ambitious manufacturing growth through greater investment in the economy, investments in research and development, and promotion of the export of manufactured goods. It is accompanied by an increase in welfare transfers (social grants) to moderate the initial increases in inequality that are typically associated with a manufacturing transition. To this end, the scenario improves tax administration and increases government revenues.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Chart 30 should be read with Chart 8 that presents a stacked area graph on the contribution to GDP and size, in billion US$, of the Current Path economy for each of the sectors.

In the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario, the service sectors will continue to be the largest contributor to the economy, contributing an additional US$300 million to the GDP by 2043, which is a 0.65 percentage point increase compared to the Current Path forecast.

This will improve the contribution of the ICT sector, contributing an additional US$100 million (0.16 percentage improvement) to GDP by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast. As a percentage of GDP, the contribution of energy and agriculture sectors to GDP in the scenario is 0.06 and 0.75 percentage points lower, respectively, than the Current Path forecast in 2043, while the contribution of the manufacturing and materials sectors will remain almost unchanged compared to the Current Path forecast. However, in absolute terms, the contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP is US$100 million larger than in the Current Path forecast in 2043.

In 2019, social welfare spending (government welfare transfers to unskilled workers) equated to US$100 million. In the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario, social welfare expenditure will increase to US$500 million, US$100 million higher than in the Current Path forecast at US$400 million.

These transfers will be needed to address the initial increase in poverty which is often associated with the investment in the manufacturing sector. Industrialisation is often funded by an initial crunch in consumption which increases poverty in the first few years. However, these efforts stimulate inclusive growth with greater impact on poverty alleviation in the long term.

The interventions proposed in the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario will improve the GDP per capita of Comoros in 2043, increasing it by US$299 above the Current Path forecast. The GDP per capita is expected to increase to US$5 314 in this scenario compared to US$5 015 in the Current Path forecast. GDP per capita in both the Current Path forecast and the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario will still be significantly below the average for lower middle-income countries in Africa by 2043.

The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario will have a significant impact on poverty reduction in the country by 2043. The benefits of this scenario already start to impact poverty reduction by as early as 2025. In this scenario, the poverty rate is reduced to 10.8%, a 3.3 percentage points reduction compared to the Current Path forecast by 2043. An additional 40 000 people will be lifted out of poverty in the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario compared to the Current Path forecast in 2043.

The Leapfrogging scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious adoption of and investment in renewable energy technologies, resulting in better access to electricity in urban and rural areas. The scenario includes accelerated access to mobile and fixed broadband and the adoption of modern technology that improves government efficiency and allows for the more rapid formalisation of the informal sector.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

Fixed broadband includes cable modem Internet connections, DSL Internet connections of at least 256 KB/s, fibre and other fixed broadband technology connections (such as satellite broadband Internet, ethernet local area networks, fixed-wireless access, wireless local area networks, WiMAX, etc.).

Comoros’ fixed broadband subscriptions at 2 per 100 people in 2019 is below the average for lower middle-income countries in Africa, which is 3.7, and below the average of 3.2 for Africa. In the Leapfrogging scenario, fixed broadband subscriptions increase to 50 subscriptions per 100 people by 2040. In the Current Path forecast, Comoros only reaches 36.9 subscriptions by 2043. The interventions proposed in the Leapfrogging scenario accelerate access from 2025 onwards.

Mobile broadband refers to wireless Internet access delivered through cellular towers to computers and other digital devices.

For many years Comoros suffered from a severe lack of access to connectivity — the result of a telecoms monopoly that subjected Comorians to high rates, poor services and inadequate coverage. In 2015, a second telecoms licence was awarded and it started operating in 2016. This newfound competition has brought about much-needed improvement to the sector. [19World Bank, Comoros: Transforming telecommunications in the Union of the Comoros, 28 February 2019] The launch of the Telma Comores has rapidly expanded mobile services in the country and recent estimates shows that this figure is closer to 58 subscriptions per 100 people in 2018, [20World Bank, Comoros: Transforming telecommunications in the Union of the Comoros, 28 February 2019] significantly above the previous estimates as indicated in the graph.

The Leapfrogging scenario will further accelerate access to mobile broadband. In the Leapfrogging scenario, mobile broadband subscriptions will increase to 138.2 subscriptions per 100 people by 2043.

In total, 76.3% of the country’s population had access to electricity in 2019, 10 percentage points higher compared to the average for lower middle-income Africa and 23 percentage points more compared to the average for Africa.

The country does boast hydropower and geothermal potential but both remains untapped, with only 1 MW of installed hydroelectric capacity. [21United Nations Environment Programme, Energy profile, Comoros, 134–37] Energy needs are met through biomass sources.

In the Current Path forecast, it is projected that 97.8% of Comoros population will have access to electricity by 2043, translating to 1.35 million people. In the Leapfrogging scenario, electricity access is projected to reach every Comorian by 2033.

The projection indicates that in the Leapfrogging scenario rural electricity access will increase from 71.6% in 2019 to 100% by 2034. For populations living in urban spaces, it is projected that in the Leapfrogging scenario, electricity access will increase from 88% in 2019 to 100% by 2031.

By 2043, GDP per capita in Comoros is expected to increase to US$5 290 in the Leapfrogging scenario, compared to US$5 015 in the Current Path forecast, an increase of US$275. GDP per capita for Comoros is expected to continue to be below the average for lower middle-income Africa.

The Leapfrogging scenario has a positive impact on poverty reduction by 2043, lowering it by only 1.5 percentage point compared to the Current Path forecast. The interventions proposed in this scenario will lift an additional 20 000 people out of extreme poverty. Poverty rates remain significantly below the average for lower middle-income Africa throughout the forecast horizon.

The Free Trade scenario represents the impact of the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by 2034 through increases in exports, improved productivity and increased trade and economic freedom.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website. 

The trade balance is the difference between the value of a country's exports and its imports. A country that imports more goods and services than it exports in terms of value has a trade deficit, while a country that exports more goods and services than it imports has a trade surplus.

The economy of Comoros is heavily dependent on the importation of goods and basic foodstuffs, while exports are limited to a few agricultural products. Comoros’ trade deficit in 2019 stood at 17% of GDP. In both the Free Trade scenario and the Current Path forecast, Comoros is projected to record a trade deficit across the forecast horizon. However, between 2023 and 2040, the trade deficit in the scenario remains lower than in the Current Path forecast. In 2043, the deficit is projected to reach 11.5% of GDP compared to the Current Path forecast of 10.2%.

The full implementation of the AfCFTA will likely improve Comoros’ trade balance in the short to medium term and deteriorate it in the long term. With the removal of trade restrictions, following trade liberalisation, it becomes easier to import, while Comorian firms face intense competition on the export markets. However, only using the trade balance is not a viable indicator to conclude that in the long term Comoros will be a loser in the implementation of the AfCFTA, as other indicators need to be considered, too.

Generally, trade liberalisation improves productivity through competition and technology diffusion, stimulating growth and raising income levels. The Free Trade scenario has a positive impact on per capita income in Comoros. By 2043, GDP per capita in Comoros is expected to increase to US$5 581 in the Free Trade scenario, compared to US$5 015 in the Current Path forecast — an increase of US$566. This shows that the full implementation of the AfCFTA will enhance economic growth in Comoros.

By 2043, poverty will drop from 14.1% in the Current Path forecast to 11.6% in the Free Trade scenario. This scenario therefore contributes a 2.5 percentage point reduction in the poverty rate compared to the Current Path forecast, lifting an additional 30 000 people out of poverty.

The Financial Flows scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious increase in worker remittances and aid flows to poor countries, and an increase in the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) and additional portfolio investment inflows to middle-income countries. We also reduced outward financial flows to emulate a reduction in illicit financial outflows.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

The Comorian economy benefits significantly from foreign aid inflows, and in 2019 foreign aid represented 7.6% of the country’s GDP, significantly above the average for lower middle-income Africa at 1.7%. Comoros is disproportionally reliant on aid and almost three times higher than the average of Africa. Foreign aid flows are projected to decrease in both the Financial Flows scenario and the Current Path forecast, equating to 4.2% of GDP in the Financial Flows scenario, compared to 3.8% for the Current Path forecast by 2043.

In 2019, foreign investment in Comoros measured below the average for lower middle-income Africa by 1.5 percentage points. In 2019, FDI inflows represented 1.1% of the country's GDP before declining to 0.5% in 2020 due to the multiple shocks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. In the Financial Flows scenario, FDI inflows increase to 1.9% of GDP by 2043, 0.3 percentage points higher than the Current Path forecast.

Comoros is a net receiver of remittances. Its turbulent history and colonial ties to France have resulted in a large Comorian diaspora, in France in particular. In 2019, the Comorian diaspora remitted an estimated US$100 million, about 10.4% of GDP.

This remittance trend is likely to continue throughout the forecast horizon and in 2043 it is estimated that in the Financial Flows scenario remittances will amount to US$400 million, 9.6% of GDP compared to 8.5% of GDP in the Current Path forecast.

The Financial Flows scenario has a marginal impact on Comoros GDP per capita. By 2043, the GDP per capita is expected to increase to US$5 063 in the Financial Flows scenario, compared to US$5 015 in the Current Path forecast, an increase of US$48. GDP per capita for Comoros will remain significantly lower compared to the average for lower middle-income Africa.

The Financial Flows scenario has a small but positive benefit on poverty reduction in Comoros. It is expected that this scenario will reduce poverty rate by 0.9 percentage points by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast. The scenario has the potential to lift an additional 10 000 people out of poverty compared to the Current Path forecast in 2043.

The Infrastructure scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious increase in infrastructure spending across Africa, focusing on basic infrastructure (roads, water, sanitation, electricity access and ICT) in low-income countries and increasing emphasis on advanced infrastructure (such as ports, airports, railway and electricity generation) in higher-income countries.

Note that health and sanitation infrastructure is included as part of the Health/WaSH scenario and that ICT infrastructure and more rapid uptake of renewables are part of the Leapfrogging scenario. The interventions there push directly on outcomes, whereas those modelled in this scenario increase infrastructure spending, indirectly boosting other forms of infrastructure, including those supporting health, sanitation and ICT. 

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

In 2019, 88% of urban and 71.6% of rural populations had access to electricity. The Infrastructure scenario stands to benefit Comoros by increasing the total electricity access to 98.6% in 2043, 0.8 percentage points above the Current Path forecast. It will also improve rural access to 97.9% by 2043, 1.2 percentage points above the Current Path forecast. In the urban areas, electricity access rates in the scenario and the Current Path forecast converge at 100% by 2036.

Indicator 9.1.1 in the Sustainable Development Goals refers to the proportion of the rural population who live within 2 km of an all-season road and is captured in the Rural Access Index.

Measuring rural accessibility is a very important development indicator. There is a strong link between investing in rural access roads and positive socio-economic impacts, such as improving rural income, reducing poverty, reducing maternal deaths, improving paediatric health and increasing agricultural productivity. [22A le Roux et al, A Framework for Assessing the Risks and Impacts of Rural Access Roads to a Changing Climate, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 38, 2019, 101175]

Comoros is geographically isolated and has a low-quality road network. The three islands also differ substantially in regard to road connectivity and quality. In 2019, 60.6% of the rural population of Comoros had access to an all-weather road, compared to an average of 61.4% for upper middle-income countries in Africa and 53% for the average of Africa. The Infrastructure scenario will benefit rural accessibility, and by 2043 it is projected that 74% of the rural population will have access to an all-weather road, compared to 70% in the Current Path forecast.

Quality infrastructure not only enables business and industry development but also increases efficiency in the delivery of social services. Important basic infrastructure, such as roads and electricity, plays a vital role in achieving sustained economic growth. By 2043, the GDP per capita in Comoros is expected to increase to US$5 144 in the Infrastructure scenario, compared to US$5 015 in the Current Path forecast — an increase of US$129. The GDP per capita for Comoros will however remain below the average for lower middle-income Africa throughout the forecast horizon.

The Infrastructure scenario has a negligible impact on poverty reduction by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast, lowering poverty by only 0.6 percentage point. Poverty rates remain significantly below the average for lower middle-income Africa throughout the forecast horizon.

The Governance scenario represents a reasonable but ambitious improvement in accountability and reduces corruption, and hence improves the quality of service delivery by government.

The intervention is explained here in the thematic part of the website.

As defined by the World Bank, government effectiveness ‘captures perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government’s commitment to such policies’.

Chart 51 presents the impact of the interventions in the Governance scenario on government effectiveness.

Comoros scores significantly lower than the average for lower middle-income Africa and Africa on government effectiveness. In 2019, Comoros had the tenth lowest government effectiveness score in Africa and the worst among its income peers. The Governance scenario improves the score from 1.1 (out of a maximum of 5) in 2019 to 1.8 in 2043.

By 2043, the GDP per capita in Comoros is expected to increase to US$5 104 in the improved Governance scenario, compared to US$5 015 in the Current Path forecast — an increase of US$89. The GDP per capita for Comoros will remain below the average for lower middle-income Africa throughout the forecast horizon.

The Governance scenario has a negligible impact on alleviating poverty, reducing the poverty rate by 0.5 percentage points compared to the Current Path forecast in 2043. The poverty rate in Comoros will remain below the projected average poverty rate for lower middle-income Africa.

Chart 54 displays projected tons of carbon emission for Comoros in the Current Path and the 11 intervention scenarios. Note that IFs uses carbon equivalents rather than CO2 equivalents.

On the Current Path, Comoros’ carbon emissions are projected to increase from 0.1 million tons in 2019 to 0.4 million tons by 2043. None of the various scenarios significantly increases carbon emissions above the Current Path forecast in the country by 2043.